MLB Hitting Sucks

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Not shilling the Wall Street Journal for their financial benefit, but mostly I read complaints about how bad the media and local newspapers in particular have become over the years. I have been a subscriber to WSJ for a few years off and on (I subscribe on the discount rate for a year which is currently $4 per month. Full digital access and a Saturday print edition delivered. After 12 months it goes up to the regular price of $38/month so I cancel before that kicks in. A few months later, they send an email with the discounted offer.) From where I sit, it has the most unique content that seems fact focused and offers a variety of opinions. It gets pretty closed to balanced and objective and for $4 a month, I recommend it if you are looking for a good news source, I don't think you get close to matching the amount of quality content that the journal puts out anywhere else... Now at $38/month.... that's another story. There is a lot of business and market information obviously, but lots and lots of other good stuff as well.

Anywho, today's submission is a great article about how terrible approaches at the plate and pitchers that throw harder and cheat mort have put this season in MLB on pace to break the all time record for no hitters and lowest league wide batting average. I imagine its behind a paywall, but the gist is swinging for the fences all the time, even with 2 strikes has MLB on pace to break the no hitters in a season record set in 1884... The first year pitchers could throw overhand.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/baseball-no-hitters-strikeouts-home-runs-11622144688?mod=hp_listc_pos2

 

[CochiseCowbell]

I could have saved you this month's 4 bucks.

 

[ronpolk]

It’s a complicated issue to me. But it’s a problem:

1) hitting singles is not prioritized anymore. Slugging % appears to be more valued than on base %.

2) the shift makes it virtually impossible to string together hits and play station to station baseball now. The HR accounts for a good % of all scoring.

3) pitchers are using substances to increase spin rate and it’s not fair but MLB does not seem to want to what’s necessary to stop it. Stopping would probably require embarrassing the league and some high profile stars.

The league is experimenting with eliminating the shift and I guess that could help but it seems a little counterproductive to take a strategy out of the game. Something needs to give. It makes for a boring game when the half the at bats are strike outs and you’re just waiting for a HR.

 

[8dog]

I love baseball and MLB is insufferable at its current rate over 162 games. They cant continue this style of play if they want to grow interest and be successful 30 years from now. I tuned in for the first time last year because we were all dying for sports but also because the games mattered in a 60 game season.

 

[Dubs.sixpack]

The NBA essentially banned their version of the shift with defensive 3 seconds. It's basically you can play zone or man to man but not a hybrid. It's made the game much better. It's time to do it in baseball. Here's a few suggestions that I think would make the game better:

1. Eliminate the shift. Maybe regulate that you have to have two infielders on each side of second base.
2. Eliminate mound visits. They are worthless besides stopping momentum. Give each team 3 timeouts per game if you feel the need to allow them to stop the game to break offensive momentum.
3. Hard cap on pitching substitutions. Soccer has this right with only 3 subs per game. There's no need to have 6 pitchers in a 9 inning game. You can expand it for extra innings.
4. Reduce the season. So many individual records of the past aren't going to be broken anyway so just reduce the amount of games and be done with it.

 

[VegasDawg13]

3) pitchers are using substances to increase spin rate and it’s not fair but MLB does not seem to want to what’s necessary to stop it. Stopping would probably require embarrassing the league and some high profile stars.

I don't understand this. Just make it clear internally ahead of time that you're not going to continue to allow this stuff starting next season, and the only people that will then be embarrassed are ones that continue to do it, aka cheaters, so who cares?

If the rule-breaking by pitchers is as rampant as is being implied, it sure seems like this one thing could fix a lot of the problems instead of changing a bunch of rules.

 

[VegasDawg13]

The NBA essentially banned their version of the shift with defensive 3 seconds. It's basically you can play zone or man to man but not a hybrid.

That is not an accurate description.

The NBA used to not allow any kind of zone, and now they only allow a "hybrid" zone in that a defender can't just linger in the lane like a center would in a traditional 2-3 zone. Unless you mean something different by "hybrid" that I'm not catching onto...

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

I have no problem with the shift personally. Learn to hit the ball the other way so when you need to do so in an important spot, there is a freebie waiting on you. If that happens enough, the shift will go away on its own. I do think its time to change some rules though. I know purists get all in a tizzy, but nothing we are talking about are as big as lowering the mound or instituting the DH in the AL.

 

[ronpolk]

I have no problem with the shift personally. Learn to hit the ball the other way so when you need to do so in an important spot, there is a freebie waiting on you. If that happens enough, the shift will go away on its own. I do think its time to change some rules though. I know purists get all in a tizzy, but nothing we are talking about are as big as lowering the mound or instituting the DH in the AL.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. If you got a guy up to bat that is a pull hitter and capable of big time power, do you really mind if that guy gets on base via a single?

 

[DoomSlayer]

The problem is all the data shows that the team that hits more homeruns wins the game. I’ve seen many games where a team will outhit the other and lose because the other team got some multirun bombs. You can’t blame teams for following the numbers.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Late innings and a tied game 1 out runner on first... Let's go get the lead. Big lefty hits a dribbler to beat the shift and you have runner's on the corners with 1 out. You can beat the shift on your other 3 at bats or if nobody is on and there are 1-2 outs... It's almost like the power hitters version of a bunt. OPS and advanced metrics are great over the season, but in certain spots you need to go win the game that's in front of you. They defense is only going to shift if it increases the odds of getting a player out in a critical situation. If you zig when the zag, they will quite zagging so much. Laws of zig zag according to Zig Ziggler.

 

[ronpolk]

Late innings and a tied game 1 out runner on first... Let's go get the lead. Big lefty hits a dribbler to beat the shift and you have runner's on the corners with 1 out. You can beat the shift on your other 3 at bats or if nobody is on and there are 1-2 outs... It's almost like the power hitters version of a bunt. OPS and advanced metrics are great over the season, but in certain spots you need to go win the game that's in front of you. They defense is only going to shift if it increases the odds of getting a player out in a critical situation. If you zig when the zag, they will quite zagging so much. Laws of zig zag according to Zig Ziggler.

Certainly in the situation you describe you’d like your power hitter to beat the shift with a bunt or whatever. But in general flow of the game, the defense wins if they make your power hitter lay down a bunt to try and get on first base.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Guys shouldn't have to bunt to beat the shift. They should learn how to hit. And the shift shouldn't be eliminated because hitters today suck.

 

[patdog]

I really like #2-#4. As much as I think the shift is overused, the answer isn’t to outlaw it, the batters need to adjust.

 

[anonymous.sixpack]

I could have saved you this month's 4 bucks.

Yep. Could have just watched the Don Mattingly clip last week, although the WSJ article is a good read.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theath...e-is-sometimes-unwatchable/71CJvdUScZ3k?amp=1

 

[ronpolk]

Guys shouldn't have to bunt to beat the shift. They should learn how to hit. And the shift shouldn't be eliminated because hitters today suck.

It’s hard to say hitters today suck. Had the shift been widely used forever maybe every hitter would have sucked. Hitters have made a living forever pulling the ball. Now with the amount of video and analysis teams have, it’s pretty easy to line up a player exactly where the hitter typically hits the ball. With that said, I do agree that hitters need to learn to adapt and hit the ball to the opposite field more often. But I’m just not sure that is going to happen more often until MLB starts putting a premium on guys who get on base vs guys who hit home runs.

 

[dorndawg]

The NBA essentially banned their version of the shift with defensive 3 seconds. It's basically you can play zone or man to man but not a hybrid. It's made the game much better. It's time to do it in baseball. Here's a few suggestions that I think would make the game better:

1. Eliminate the shift. Maybe regulate that you have to have two infielders on each side of second base.
2. Eliminate mound visits. They are worthless besides stopping momentum. Give each team 3 timeouts per game if you feel the need to allow them to stop the game to break offensive momentum.
3. Hard cap on pitching substitutions. Soccer has this right with only 3 subs per game. There's no need to have 6 pitchers in a 9 inning game. You can expand it for extra innings.
4. Reduce the season. So many individual records of the past aren't going to be broken anyway so just reduce the amount of games and be done with it.

5. Put a trampoline on the warning track, you cowards!

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

I love baseball and MLB is insufferable at its current rate over 162 games. They cant continue this style of play if they want to grow interest and be successful 30 years from now. I tuned in for the first time last year because we were all dying for sports but also because the games mattered in a 60 game season.

o/

Yes, the length of the season is awful April til the end of October is too long for the fans of today's sports

The slugging game is boring for me. As much as I despise the Cards (Cub fan) I liked to watch their running and small ball approach of long ago. Standing around waiting for a long ball with the pitcher's advantages puts me to sleep. I've pretty much quit watching in favor of other sports or binging Netflix in the summer.

 

[dorndawg]

Seems the simple solution is to move the walls back a few feet. The analytics are clearly telling teams to swing for the fences. This then forces teams to choose between speedy outfielders who can cover some ground (and steal bases) or continue to have lumbering OFs who can still hit it over longer fences.

 

[Cooterpoot]

It’s hard to say hitters today suck. Had the shift been widely used forever maybe every hitter would have sucked. Hitters have made a living forever pulling the ball. Now with the amount of video and analysis teams have, it’s pretty easy to line up a player exactly where the hitter typically hits the ball. With that said, I do agree that hitters need to learn to adapt and hit the ball to the opposite field more often. But I’m just not sure that is going to happen more often until MLB starts putting a premium on guys who get on base vs guys who hit home runs.

Tony Gwen, Wade Boggs, Mattingley, etc. would eat the shift. The shift has been around forever. It's used more today because hitters suck. They try to pull and lift everything. Hell, Ted Williams would've hit .500 vs the shift. Hitters today are one dimensional hitters and it's ruining baseball. I barely watch pro ball anymore.

 

[dorndawg]

Tony Gwen, Wade Boggs, Mattingley, etc. would eat the shift. The shift has been around forever. It's used more today because hitters suck. They try to pull and lift everything. Hell, Ted Williams would've hit .500 vs the shift. Hitters today are one dimensional hitters and it's ruining baseball. I barely watch pro ball anymore.

The shift reduced Ted Williams lifetime average by 16 points.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...r-old-strategy-designed-to-stop-ted-williams/

 

[ronpolk]

Tony Gwen, Wade Boggs, Mattingley, etc. would eat the shift. The shift has been around forever. It's used more today because hitters suck. They try to pull and lift everything. Hell, Ted Williams would've hit .500 vs the shift. Hitters today are one dimensional hitters and it's ruining baseball. I barely watch pro ball anymore.

You do realize not every batter sees a shift. Good chance Gwynn wouldn’t see the shift. Plus you’re not filling a lineup full of Boggs and Gwynn. You gotta have some pop and the power hitters are typically going to be pull hitters and nowadays see the shift

And it shows that you barely watch MLB cause you don’t know much about it.

 

[ll Martain ll]

Sounds like Baseball Simulator 1.000

 

[Dubs.sixpack]

That is not an accurate description.

The NBA used to not allow any kind of zone, and now they only allow a "hybrid" zone in that a defender can't just linger in the lane like a center would in a traditional 2-3 zone. Unless you mean something different by "hybrid" that I'm not catching onto...

I believe they changed it a while back where you can play a zone or you can play man to man but not a mix like a box and 1. You rarely see zone's though since 3pt shooting is so good. They'll ding you for playing a zone and sticking one guy on a shooter or playing man to man and not guarding all 5. If you could play a mixture of the two then Tony Allen for the Grizzlies would have never been guarded a while back and the whole offense would have shuttered.

 

[VegasDawg13]

I believe they changed it a while back where you can play a zone or you can play man to man but not a mix like a box and 1. You rarely see zone's though since 3pt shooting is so good. They'll ding you for playing a zone and sticking one guy on a shooter or playing man to man and not guarding all 5. If you could play a mixture of the two then Tony Allen for the Grizzlies would have never been guarded a while back and the whole offense would have shuttered.

Okay, then you meant what I thought you meant, and that's just not correct. Google NBA illegal defense. It isn't what you seem to think it is. A true zone with a big man staying in the paint is what's illegal.

The thing you described with Tony Allen is exactly what would often happen in the playoffs. It turned around the series against the Warriors in 2015. They put Bogut "on" TA, and Bogut played several feet off of him so he could help other defenders.

 

[EagleDawg97]

Want to fix the offensive issues in the MLB, stop being ok with strike outs from hitters. Start recruiting smaller high on base percentage guys again! Stop requiring your darn 2B to hit 40 home runs, and just draft the guy that gets his butt on base.

 

[Drebin]

It’s a complicated issue to me. But it’s a problem:

1) hitting singles is not prioritized anymore. Slugging % appears to be more valued than on base %.

2) the shift makes it virtually impossible to string together hits and play station to station baseball now. The HR accounts for a good % of all scoring.

3) pitchers are using substances to increase spin rate and it’s not fair but MLB does not seem to want to what’s necessary to stop it. Stopping would probably require embarrassing the league and some high profile stars.

The league is experimenting with eliminating the shift and I guess that could help but it seems a little counterproductive to take a strategy out of the game. Something needs to give. It makes for a boring game when the half the at bats are strike outs and you’re just waiting for a HR.

They also deadened the ball this year. This is a big reason why offensive numbers are down.

 

[Drebin]

The shift reduced Ted Williams lifetime average by 16 points.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...r-old-strategy-designed-to-stop-ted-williams/

Damn you for making me agree with you**, but you are right.

Common misnomer is that Ted Williams was a guy with an oppo-approach like Tony Gwynn. Nope. Actually Ted Williams was a pull hitter that really benefitted from ballpark configurations of the time. And in that era, teams shifted on Williams all the time.

 

[dorndawg]

Damn you for making me agree with you**, but you are right.

Common misnomer is that Ted Williams was a guy with an oppo-approach like Tony Gwynn. Nope. Actually Ted Williams was a pull hitter that really benefitted from ballpark configurations of the time. And in that era, teams shifted on Williams all the time.

 

[SteelCurtain74]

It would appear that left handed hitters are shifted against more than right handed hitters. This graph shows that left handed hitters have faced a shift 54% of the time versus 17% for right handed hitters.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visu...home&firstBase=0&shift=1&batSide=&season=2021

Also keep in mind that pitchers are pitching into the shift, not away from it. To say "just hit the other way" may sound simple but a cutter or fastball on the inside part of the plate is not something most players can just hit the other way.

 

[Bulldog Bruce]

Mound needs to move back a foot or two. That would solve it all.

 

[dog12]

The shift reduced Ted Williams lifetime average by 16 points.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...r-old-strategy-designed-to-stop-ted-williams/

Only because Williams refused to adjust to the shift. For example, Williams refused to simply bunt and take the single.

If the defense shifts and just lets the batter put down a bunt and get on first every at bat, then I'd take it. (Of course, you have to look at the circumstances of the game every at-bat and make proper adjustments to this strategy.)

I never watch MLB games, so I don't know how often the shift is implemented. However, if some sort of shift is implemented for every batter, then every batter should be able to get a hit against the shift. Thus, if batters will simply take what the shift gives them, then lots of runs could be scored against the shift.

It's the hitters' stubborn attitudes to swing for the fences that makes the shift strategy successful.