Our best case WITH Lebby next year is 2-10. If you pull the trigger now, at least a new staff can get a jump start on organization and figuring out the mess Lebby left them
Mr. Selmon - I know you're reading.
- Thread starter QuaoarsKing
- Start date
He's getting 2026. Period. Another year like this, and he's gone, but he's getting this next year. Right or wrong they aren't making a move after all the offseason staff shakeups and just as the portal opens.
Lebby’s ceiling is higher than 2-10 for 2026. It’s probably 5 or 6 wins. And 3 or 4 wins being “most likely.” But your “new staff” assumption is where you are going horribly wrong. Any SEC caliber head coach that you might want is NOT taking our job at this stage. They’d have to coach 2026 without a roster. Because they weren’t here to build one during the portal period. It would be a historically bad season, worse than anything Jeff Lebby ever fielded. And nobody worthwhile would take that on. It’s just simply too late now. We need to get the next hire right. And to do that means making the hire in November/December 2026.
You don't give him a year, you give him 5 games to go 3-2 before our bye. Win both non-conference games and beat either South Carolina on the road or Missouri at home because we're not beating Bama.
If he can do that, there is a chance to go 6-6 or 7-5 with potential wins over Vandy & Auburn, what should be a definite win over Tennessee Tech and possibly a win over Ole Miss.
Anything less than 3-2, you need to pull the trigger. Honestly, I expect us to start 1-4 but I hope I'm wrong.
If he can do that, there is a chance to go 6-6 or 7-5 with potential wins over Vandy & Auburn, what should be a definite win over Tennessee Tech and possibly a win over Ole Miss.
Anything less than 3-2, you need to pull the trigger. Honestly, I expect us to start 1-4 but I hope I'm wrong.
Find those 5-6 wins on the schedule. Have you even looked at it?
He isn’t getting fired. We learned no new information from this game. We are in a totally different position than after 2019 or 2023. He is gonna be our coach next year. He is being given every resource imaginable to leave no excuses.
I have looked at it. Until we see rosters post-portal, it’s impossible to know. But it feels like a schedule that is about 1.5 wins tougher than 2025’s schedule. And during 2025, Lebby won 5 games and almost won 3 more (Texas, Florida, and Tennessee). So this years’ ceiling looks to have been 8. But a tougher schedule, plus the added pessimism that impacts crowd size, NIL donations have me seeing 5 or 6 wins as best case if most of the balls and close games bounced our way. And the likely result being 3 or 4 wins if it goes like this year where we had a little good fortune (Arkansas and Arizona State) and a little bad fortune (Florida and Texas).
we had 4 games in 2025 where we were fairly confident in a win. we have 2 gimme's in 2026. going to 9 game SEC schedule changes things, including outlooks
Yep, we’re in a classroom full of kids that are building mosaics and skyscrapers out of scrap, and we’re the dumb **** in the corner that’s still trying to figure out how to color inside the lines
If I’m being honest, it made me feel ten times worse. I was hoping to see a spark from KT leading the offense, but that didn’t happen. We still looked awful for 75% of the game
I would argue that we had 3 gimmes in 2025 and that Arkansas on the road was NOT a gimme. And I believe the way the game went proved that it was not a gimme. The ball bounced our way there.
But even if we accept your logic of 3 gimmes, the way it turned out is that we actually won 5 games (+2 win differential over the “gimme” number) and we could’ve won 3 more with lots of luck (+5 win differential).
I totally agree with you saying we only have 2 gimmes in 2025. But there will be chances in 2026 just like there were in 2025. In addition to the gimmes, there are scenarios where Auburn, Vandy, South Carolina, Missouri, and Minnesota could go our way. My position is that 2-10 is the floor. 3-9 or 4-8 is most likely. And 6-6 is the absolute ceiling if almost everything goes our way like in 1999 or Croom’s one good season.
That could be a small positive from the game: we now know for sure that starting KT earlier in the season would not have helped anything.
Ark was with an interim HC and the refs gave them 200 yards of penalties in the second half. we were gifted that game. and still barely won it. The Az St game, i still can't explain, other than the team playing on emotion and excitement.
I think we learned after what is equivalent to a Spring practice, we didn't look improved in any aspect. We also looked very unprepared.
His only SEC win is against a bad Arky team and he's won only one game against a decent team in two years. It's hard for me to see potential wins against other SEC teams.
I don’t think we are too far off in our assessments here. I’m just saying that while we don’t know who they are yet, there will be opportunities in 2026 just like 2025. We play above our head like Tenneseee, Texas, and ASU. There will be interims and dead men walking like Arkansas and Florida. Someone will have tons of penalties vs us. There will be key injuries for our opponents. Maybe Kamario makes a MAJOR leap next year and is a 62% passer instead of a 50% passer.
2025 looks to have been:
Floor was 3-9
Most likely was 4-8 to 6-6
Ceiling was 8-4
And I think 2026 looks like
Floor of 2-10
Most likely of 3-9 or 4-8
Ceiling of 6-6
But to be clear, I absolutely do not think we are going to win 5 or 6 games. That’s the “we got incredibly good fortune” scenario. Croom got that in his Liberty Bowl season.
Fire Lebby, hire Mullen, develop Taylor as a Qb and WIN FOOTBALL GAMES!!!
We didn’t play for like 3 weeks and got 10 practices. If you expect an OL that has looked awful
For 3 months to change after that you have bad expectation. Because blame Lebby for a lot but there are still major talent issues
Not saying we should have looked better but the entire point of getting the bowl was getting another spring practice. So are you saying that you don't expect improvement by August? Just give the money to Jans then and go buy the best basketball team in the country.
We also damn sure should not have looked worse. That was Moorhead level bull **** last night.
It’s way too late to make a good change for this year but we better be doing our homework and developing an action plan for next year. You can’t wait until January with the portal now open. The ship has already sailed. If we try to do something now it will just be a bigger disaster than what we already have, if that’s even possible.
I just don't see how it can possibly be worse than the 2-10 we're looking at in 2026. Hire Mullen or Vigen Monday, and we'll at least be competently run this upcoming season.
Show me the 5 to 6 wins. I see 2. What teams do you see Lebby beating ?
Safe Wins (2): Tennesee Tech and ULM
Certain Losses (3): Bama, Texas, LSU
Likely Losses (2) Oklahoma, Ole Miss
Not Sure (5) Minnesota, Missouri, South Carolina, Auburn, Vandy.
I suspect we win 1 or 2 in the “not sure” list. I’m not sure we will be favored in any of those. But we weren’t favored against Arizona State or Arkansas in 2025. Nobody would’ve thought Florida, Tennessee, or Texas were winnable and 1 play in each of those games wins it. Based on 2025, I’d expect the same where we pick off 1 or 2 and win 3 or 4 total games. The path to 6 wins is 2 teams really struggle and are putrid. Let’s say that’s Auburn and South Carolina. And then you need somebody else to be good but lay a total egg against you. We will say that’s Minnesota just like Arizona State in 2025. And then someone else has a couple major injuries prior to our game. Or maybe Pete Golding has no clue about assessing portal talent.
Again, I don’t think 6 wins is likely. I don’t see 6 wins that are expected. I’m just saying if fortune smiled down on us, that’s probably the best case that could ever happen.
I’d guess the odds are:
20% chance for 2-10
30% chance for 3-9
30% chance for 4-10
15% chance for 5-7
5% chance for 6-6
So I’m saying it’s an 80% chance we are 4-10 or worse.
“Not Sure (5) Minnesota, Missouri, South Carolina, Auburn, Vandy.”
Let me help you out. Those are Losses.
Let me help you out. Those are Losses.
They probably are, but it's not too late to make a last minute switch to a coach who could win some of them.
I feel like KT was hamstrung by playcalling and having run for his life all night. We'd better focus on the trenches in the offseason.
I've firmly been a Lebby supporter, & if you've lost me, its not good, but I think Selmon needs to do his due diligence & not rush into it.
Even if that means giving him this year while courting the next coach.
Unless Selmon already has the next coach in mind & he's willing to come.
BUT....
I want to hire a coach thats run a program. No more coordinators!
Even if that means giving him this year while courting the next coach.
Unless Selmon already has the next coach in mind & he's willing to come.
BUT....
I want to hire a coach thats run a program. No more coordinators!
We are who we are. We had 5-6 practices a week for 3 months and the OL and D didn’t get better. We know the D is a talent and coaching issue. We need new guys on the OL and hope it’s mostly a talent issue and not a Loadholt issue.
But please don’t give anymore to basketball. Thats not worth playing one game in the ncaa tourney.
Sixpackspeak doesn’t represent the whole fanbase any more than the loudest drunk in the stands represents everyone clanging cowbells. If you want the real pulse, check the stadium crowds or broader platform, not one small dictatorship style message board full of armchair ADs. Most people outside of this board would say to give Lebby time 2-3 more years.
You're laying it on too thick. You'll find some people who are willing to give him this fall and see if he can have a winning record, but no one is saying "2 or 3 more years." No modern college football program is keeping coaches after 3 or 4 straight bad years.
We just over doubled our win total, and got to go to a bowl game. All in year 2. There may be some bumps next year but he needs 4 years at least, bare minimum. The cupboard was bare when he got here. Who do you expect is going to come in here and work a miracle in 1 or 2 years? You obviously have no idea how bad it was when he got here. And then he’s trying to build and develop things from the ground up and he has to deal with impatient message board couch coaches. You don’t know anything. Classic QuaoarsKing: zero gravity, zero clue, but still acting like he’s the center of the solar system.