Posted by Mrob71:
Data to support my push to keep the faith in CC... (long)
Team,
I promised some time ago to present data for my support for CC and his plan even though our W/L record does not appear to support keeping the faith in CC. To see the progress you have to look past the W/L record. An example would be reaching for a gold ring across a room and you are on the other side of the room. As you walk toward the ring you are getting closer and closer but you are still out of reach of the ring until you are close enough to touch it and then you grab it. In other words you are still making progress toward that gold ring, but until you reach a certain point, you are not going to be able to grab that gold ring. That is where our team is right now. They are just out of reach of the gold ring and getting close to being able to grab it. Lets look at 5 factors (we could look at more in more statistical detail but there would not be enough time for me on this board) turnover margin, total offense, scoring offense, total defense and scoring defense. Note the tabular data below. These are MSU national rankings out of 119 teams in Division IA football for the years listed. In other words, lower is better. (Note a plot of these data and the corresponding trends prove the point better, but I can not figure out how to paste the pictures.)
Year Total Offense Total Defense Scoring Offense Scoring Defense Net Punting Turnover Margin
2001 85 59 108 65 70 79
2002 93 24 103 77 101 111
2003 99 113 101 117 91 116
2004 107 51 114 60 34 66
2005 113 29 113 44 99 48
2006 103 41 97 83 107 87
2007 113 21 96 35 98 55
2008 107 20 115 42 82 80
The plan CC had for rebuilding MSU was-
1. 4 years on top of whatever sanctions we got.
2. Change the mindset (Year 1 of the 4 after sanctions ) of the team into winners.
3. Rebuild the Defense first. Because if you can not stop them, you can not win.
(Year 1 of the 4 after sanctions)
4. Put speed and build Special Teams (Year 2 of the 4 after sanctions)
5. Build Offense (Year 3 of the 4 after sanctions)
6. Build complete team and win SEC West (Year 4 of the 4 after sanctions).
We just recently got off of NCAA sanctions as an additional note.
Turnover Margin-
Turnovers (giving them and creating them) are about focus and discipline of the individual and the team. It is an indicator of paying attention to detail and doing the little things right. We ranked 63 in turnover margin in 1999 (data for 1998 and earlier is not on NCAA website). Over time during the last three years of JWS tenure our turnover margin decayed and peaked in 2003. In 2004 our ranking took a step change downward and has levelled out to a trend ranking of about 70. Pretty much back to our winning years. This, along with reports from David, indicate the team's mindset has changed and they are starting to pay attention to details and believing they can win. Thus significant improvement in this area and continuing to trend positive.
Total Defense/Scoring Defense-
In 1999 MSU was #1 in Total Defense and #6 in Scoring Defense. Over time that trend decayed to #113 and #117 respectively in 2003. In essence at the end of JWS tenure, we could not slow down nor stop anybody. In 2004 under CC MSU took a step change down to #51 and #60 in total defense and scoring defense. In other words we started slowing the yardage and the scoring down. That trend has continued and we are presently #20 in total defense in the nation. If the trends continue, we should have a top 20 defense in total defense and scoring defense next year and a top 10 defense in 2010. Thus significant improvement in this area and continuing to trend positive.
Total Offense/Scoring Offense-
It is interesting to note that MSU did not light up the scoreboard in 1999. MSU ranked #88 in total offense and #85 in scoring offense in 1999 and still won. Thus this notion that the offense has to be in the middle of the pack to win is not necessarily true. After that the offense slowly degraded to 99 and 101'st in Total Offense and Scoring Offense in 2003 and has plateaued at 113 ish under CC. This area obviously has not improved as had hoped. However there are two things to remember. First, this area is the last to get talent infusions and second, the gun incident set this area back 1 year. In essence the goal was to keep Sherrod on the right side, Brown on the left all others the same and give Freeman time to develop. However we are off that plan by 1 year.
Now let's think a moment. The other areas showed an approximate improvement of 50% the first year after emphasis had been placed on them and another approximate 25% the following year. Lets extrapolate that to the offense. If we improve starting later this year, but more importantly the next two years 15% each year that would put us at about 83 for scoring offense in the nation, which is where we were in 1999. That is worth an additional touchdown per game. Think about that for a second. We are one scoring play per game from moving back to the scoring percentage we were in 1999 when we were winning. If we had one extra TD per game this year what would that mean; a win over Aub, a win over Ky, a probably win of La Tech and the game at LSU would be very interesting to say the least. We would be 6-3, possibly 7-2 and mostly everyone would be happy.
I could talk data all night but the bottom line is this. The trends, with the exception of the offensive trends, are clearly in the right direction. We receive compliments and kudos whereever our team goes now. The team believes they can win and I am not about to give up on the 2008 season yet, especially with Bama next (we just play different against them). By the way I don't think they have scored an offensive TD on us in three years. We should expect 8-4 or 9-3 seasons no later than 2010 if the trends continue to progress but that won't happen if everytime we get frustrated we start looking for another coach. Thus 2007 SEC COY has earned the right for 2 more years minimum to get the ship right and the data supports the progress.
Data to support my push to keep the faith in CC... (long)
Team,
I promised some time ago to present data for my support for CC and his plan even though our W/L record does not appear to support keeping the faith in CC. To see the progress you have to look past the W/L record. An example would be reaching for a gold ring across a room and you are on the other side of the room. As you walk toward the ring you are getting closer and closer but you are still out of reach of the ring until you are close enough to touch it and then you grab it. In other words you are still making progress toward that gold ring, but until you reach a certain point, you are not going to be able to grab that gold ring. That is where our team is right now. They are just out of reach of the gold ring and getting close to being able to grab it. Lets look at 5 factors (we could look at more in more statistical detail but there would not be enough time for me on this board) turnover margin, total offense, scoring offense, total defense and scoring defense. Note the tabular data below. These are MSU national rankings out of 119 teams in Division IA football for the years listed. In other words, lower is better. (Note a plot of these data and the corresponding trends prove the point better, but I can not figure out how to paste the pictures.)
Year Total Offense Total Defense Scoring Offense Scoring Defense Net Punting Turnover Margin
2001 85 59 108 65 70 79
2002 93 24 103 77 101 111
2003 99 113 101 117 91 116
2004 107 51 114 60 34 66
2005 113 29 113 44 99 48
2006 103 41 97 83 107 87
2007 113 21 96 35 98 55
2008 107 20 115 42 82 80
The plan CC had for rebuilding MSU was-
1. 4 years on top of whatever sanctions we got.
2. Change the mindset (Year 1 of the 4 after sanctions ) of the team into winners.
3. Rebuild the Defense first. Because if you can not stop them, you can not win.
(Year 1 of the 4 after sanctions)
4. Put speed and build Special Teams (Year 2 of the 4 after sanctions)
5. Build Offense (Year 3 of the 4 after sanctions)
6. Build complete team and win SEC West (Year 4 of the 4 after sanctions).
We just recently got off of NCAA sanctions as an additional note.
Turnover Margin-
Turnovers (giving them and creating them) are about focus and discipline of the individual and the team. It is an indicator of paying attention to detail and doing the little things right. We ranked 63 in turnover margin in 1999 (data for 1998 and earlier is not on NCAA website). Over time during the last three years of JWS tenure our turnover margin decayed and peaked in 2003. In 2004 our ranking took a step change downward and has levelled out to a trend ranking of about 70. Pretty much back to our winning years. This, along with reports from David, indicate the team's mindset has changed and they are starting to pay attention to details and believing they can win. Thus significant improvement in this area and continuing to trend positive.
Total Defense/Scoring Defense-
In 1999 MSU was #1 in Total Defense and #6 in Scoring Defense. Over time that trend decayed to #113 and #117 respectively in 2003. In essence at the end of JWS tenure, we could not slow down nor stop anybody. In 2004 under CC MSU took a step change down to #51 and #60 in total defense and scoring defense. In other words we started slowing the yardage and the scoring down. That trend has continued and we are presently #20 in total defense in the nation. If the trends continue, we should have a top 20 defense in total defense and scoring defense next year and a top 10 defense in 2010. Thus significant improvement in this area and continuing to trend positive.
Total Offense/Scoring Offense-
It is interesting to note that MSU did not light up the scoreboard in 1999. MSU ranked #88 in total offense and #85 in scoring offense in 1999 and still won. Thus this notion that the offense has to be in the middle of the pack to win is not necessarily true. After that the offense slowly degraded to 99 and 101'st in Total Offense and Scoring Offense in 2003 and has plateaued at 113 ish under CC. This area obviously has not improved as had hoped. However there are two things to remember. First, this area is the last to get talent infusions and second, the gun incident set this area back 1 year. In essence the goal was to keep Sherrod on the right side, Brown on the left all others the same and give Freeman time to develop. However we are off that plan by 1 year.
Now let's think a moment. The other areas showed an approximate improvement of 50% the first year after emphasis had been placed on them and another approximate 25% the following year. Lets extrapolate that to the offense. If we improve starting later this year, but more importantly the next two years 15% each year that would put us at about 83 for scoring offense in the nation, which is where we were in 1999. That is worth an additional touchdown per game. Think about that for a second. We are one scoring play per game from moving back to the scoring percentage we were in 1999 when we were winning. If we had one extra TD per game this year what would that mean; a win over Aub, a win over Ky, a probably win of La Tech and the game at LSU would be very interesting to say the least. We would be 6-3, possibly 7-2 and mostly everyone would be happy.
I could talk data all night but the bottom line is this. The trends, with the exception of the offensive trends, are clearly in the right direction. We receive compliments and kudos whereever our team goes now. The team believes they can win and I am not about to give up on the 2008 season yet, especially with Bama next (we just play different against them). By the way I don't think they have scored an offensive TD on us in three years. We should expect 8-4 or 9-3 seasons no later than 2010 if the trends continue to progress but that won't happen if everytime we get frustrated we start looking for another coach. Thus 2007 SEC COY has earned the right for 2 more years minimum to get the ship right and the data supports the progress.
