Mullen's Offense

[ronpolk]

After reading about how some think that our offense would run better with Dak or a running QB, I decided to look up our offensive stats during Mullen's tenure.

	PPG	YPG	Plays PG
2009	25.6	371.9	68.42
2010	29	401.3	69.77
2011	25.3	357.2	66.31
2012	29.5	381.9	65.23

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Comparing 2010 and 2012, we had slightly more PPG but less YPG. However, we ran almost 5 less plays per game, which if we had ran the extra 5 plays per game the 19 yards per game would have been made up. So, the offenses from 2010 and 2012 are nearly statistically identical. In my opinion, the offense had more talent in 2010 with Sherrod and Vick.

My point in all of this is unless Dak is going to be noticeably better than Relf next year, I think staying with Tyler is the best thing to do. I like Dak and look forward to seeing what he can do but I also like what Tyler did this year.

 

[SPMT]

After reading about how some think that our offense would run better with Dak or a running QB, I decided to look up our offensive stats during Mullen's tenure.

	PPG	YPG	Plays PG
2009	25.6	371.9	68.42
2010	29	401.3	69.77
2011	25.3	357.2	66.31
2012	29.5	381.9	65.23

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Comparing 2010 and 2012, we had slightly more PPG but less YPG. However, we ran almost 5 less plays per game, which if we had ran the extra 5 plays per game the 19 yards per game would have been made up. So, the offenses from 2010 and 2012 are nearly statistically identical. In my opinion, the offense had more talent in 2010 with Sherrod and Vick.

My point in all of this is unless Dak is going to be noticeably better than Relf next year, I think staying with Tyler is the best thing to do. I like Dak and look forward to seeing what he can do but I also like what Tyler did this year.

I believe you have to drill down further, comparing the stats versus similar competition in each years (so you see if simply a weaker schedule brought the numbers up), third down efficiency, and even time of possession. Then we would be able to compare if the defense spent a much greater amount of time on the field and drill down on the defensive side to see how we did with decreasing the opponents third down efficiency (to see if we can get the defense off the field and the O back on).

My gut tells me Dak is popular because he is the backup, but he would not result in anymore wins and maybe even would create an extra loss due to lack of experience.

We have a HC problem. He visibly sulks on the sideline and seems to have lost his energy. That **** spreads like wildfire throughout the team quickly. We definitely had individual players the effort trait, however the TEAM did not seem to have it. Next year is a new team. Go Dawgs!

 

[HotMop]

Try this with the SEC schedule only. I'd be interested in that since we ran up some good numbers both years OOC. Separate the two for comparison if you have the time.

 

[CadaverDawg]

I believe you have to drill down further, comparing the stats versus similar competition in each years (so you see if simply a weaker schedule brought the numbers up), third down efficiency, and even time of possession. Then we would be able to compare if the defense spent a much greater amount of time on the field and drill down on the defensive side to see how we did with decreasing the opponents third down efficiency (to see if we can get the defense off the field and the O back on).

My gut tells me Dak is popular because he is the backup, but he would not result in anymore wins and maybe even would create an extra loss due to lack of experience.

We have a HC problem. He visibly sulks on the sideline and seems to have lost his energy. That **** spreads like wildfire throughout the team quickly. We definitely had individual players the effort trait, however the TEAM did not seem to have it. Next year is a new team. Go Dawgs!

Your gut would be wrong. The reason some want Dak is because we run a spread option offense that excels with a dual threat QB, and we don't have a puss schedule next year like we had this year for a passing QB to feast upon and pad his stats. But maybe I just speak for myself.

 

[Todd4State]

I'm more concerned that our offense hasn't really improved much statistically from Dan's first year until now than anything. It has just been about the same.

Pick it apart how you want to.

 

[chew1095]

I am more concerned that most of our offensive plays take about 10 minutes to play out. Our offense is very slow and pedestrian and I am not talking about tempo in getting plays off. I am talking about the evolution of each play. We either do not give Tyler "quick" or "hot" options or he is incapable, at this juncture, to read prior to snap and audible into something that will pick up 5 quick yards. I'm a 10 percenter, so some of you football experts can probably articulate this observation better than me. Watching some of our offensive plays is like watching a 5th and 6th grade football team run a 5 WR set. It just moves too damn slow.

The point being, there is a lot of self reflection that needs to occur by our HC in this off season. I got real damn tired of seeing that damn deer in headlights, WTF look on his face for significant portions of games against SEC opponents.

 

[ronpolk]

I'm with you, Todd. We simply have not drastically improved on offense.

 

[FISHDAWG]

I think we need to give these new WR's a look before scrapping

the entire offense and going back to the spread/ read option .... next year we will finally have several recvrs with some height & experience

 

[Coach 57]

SPMT hit the nail on the head. We played far better competition in the comparitive years to this one. No disrespect to Mid Tenn but to me the most talented team we beat was UT. And it came down to a fluke strip by Banks to seal the deal. Also chew is right in a way as well. If we don't make any real staff changes/philosophy changes (which Cadaver, C34 & I don't think we will) and we don't do more in terms of reps for Dak the next best thing is tempo the offense. But this will put even more pressure on a kid who has shown in the last 2 outtings he can get rattled. Difficult dilemma which was my argument in my original thread. Dan is REALLY got quite a pickle on his hands over the next 6-8 months.



Quick story. Where I coach last yr we had a qb pass for a little over 3k but had a stable of decent RBs (2 are playing juco). Our best RB was returning for his Sr yr as was said qb. During last yrs playoffs he (like Russell) got rattled and turned the ball over a couple of times that cost us dearly in the red zone. Our staff got together and I offered a solution to fix our play-off woes. We wound up this yr better this yr by taking attempts away from a 3k yd passer gave them to this stud at RB. The RB finished the season well over 1400yds, it made our defense better because when we practiced our front 7 took the pounding he was dishing out to all the other teams and our 3rd down efficiency went through the roof. The qb finished with a little less than 2k passing but we made it further in the playoffs. My point is this, I hope that Dan doesn't get caught up in "handing over the keys of the offense" maybe if he had less attempts the 3rd down efficiency would increase which in turn gives the defense rest & coaching. Trust me from personal experience there's nothing worse than coaching the defense on the sideline and hearing you just turned the ball over after giving up pts and have them run back on the field. Sometimes less....is more.

 

[patdog]

Exactly. I can't speak for anyone else, but I sure don't want to send Russell to the bench. Just get Prescott in for at least 20% of the snaps so we can have a spread option element to our offense.

 

[NorthMsDawg]

Until we bring in better quality O-Linemen and coach them up better than Hevesey has been doing numbers won't improve and we won't move up the pecking order of the West. That's my biggest gripe. How the D gets the blame, the QB gets the blame, the OC gets the blame but for me it's all relative to the O-Line.

 

[fishwater99]

TR is our QB for next year....................................


All these people wanting DAK to start need to just get over it..
Mullen stayed with TR during the bowl game, no way in Hell he starts DAK unless TR can't play..

 

[Railin Jemmye]

This is easy, if you all know anything about football. We got better from 2008-2010 because that group of OL matured. Then we lost a few and started over in 2011. They got better in 2012 and now will be fully ready to go in 2013 and on, because of Mullen's steady OL recruiting since the 2010 signing class.

 

[Railin Jemmye]

My gut tells me Dak is popular because he is the backup, but he would not result in anymore wins and maybe even would create an extra loss due to lack of experience.

Well of course. It's the MSU way!

 

[Railin Jemmye]

We will over the next few years. Watch. I obviously cannot prove this now because it hasn't happened. But there will be alot of revisionist thinkers on here over the next two years.

 

[duggerdog]

if russell plays the majority of the games next year we will play hell winning more tha 5. he ain't gonna pick up any or enough speed this off season to help. dak will have to play in several games to keep us competitive.

 

[Railin Jemmye]

The snaps will be like Leak/Tebow in 06, and that's really the end of this discussion. Anything else is just flapping of lips.

 

[Dawgzilla]

Is this a 98% guarantee?

 

[Coach 57]

This is so far our only point of agreement Goat. Tyler had time to do what needed to be done because of the point you just made. Our OL is a pretty decent group and Mullen has depth there now like it hasn't seen the likes of in a very long time.

 

[fishwater99]

Then get ready for a 5-7 or 6-6 season..

Mullen is too damn hard-headed or stupid to change to more of a pro style offense for TR to be better utilized.
Get us a FB and run the damn ball up the middle with Robinson, then let TR throw off play action.
Why the Hell didn't we do it this year, I don't know???

 

[BogeyGolfer.sixpack]

Tyler Russell has more experience and gives us the best opportunity to win...

I've stayed out of this argument because I feel like I'm regurgitating what others have said but until our play-calling and overall attitude changes we will not be successful. I agree that it is the coach's responsibility to emotionally prepare our team but at the same time last year's seniors dropped the ball when it comes to leadership. I'm very surprised that Banks, Bumphis and others allowed our team to become emotionless. This must be fixed first and foremost in order for us to have a successful season. Secondly, our play-calling must improve. The pass on first down after Autry's interception was one of the worst calls I can remember in recent MSU history. Also, I would like to see Tyler roll out more and make plays. There is a reason Dak is the backup, he isn't as good as Russell....he will get his chance in two years.

 

[aTotal360]

Our QB's don't flourish till their senior year***33***3***

 

[Railin Jemmye]

When Russell signed, anyone with a brain knew he'd have to develop.....

over time. I liken him to Jason Campbell, very similar type progressions. I think he'll be an exceptional QB next year. Come to think of it, the teams had similar seasons too in both of their Jr. years. Not EXACTLY the same, but similar. Campbell and Auburn were picked by some to win it all, but had a pretty disappointing year at 8-5. Then Jetgate and all that went down, Campbell was maligned, etc. Then they back with a chip on their shoulder and go undefeated the following year.

 

[HueFreeze]

2010 vs 2012

2010
QB Chris Relf 129-220 13TD/6Int 137.6Avg ...13 games
QB Tyler Rus 39-67 5TD/6Int 70.6Avg ...9 games

2012
QB Tyler Rus 231-394 24TD/10Int 222.8 ...13 games
QB Dak Presc 18-29 4TD/0Int 16.2Avg ...12 games

2010 Rushing
RB Vick Ballard 186-994 19TD 80.7Avg ...12 games
QB Chris Relf 194-880 5TD 54.8Avg ...13 games

2012 Rushing
RB LaDarius Perkins 205 1061 8TD 85.3Avg ...12 games
RB Josh Robinson 55 344 1TD 27.9Avg ...12 games

2010 Receiving
WR Chad Bumphis 44-634 5TD
WR Arceto Clark 25-362 3TD
WR Chris Smith 24-264 1TD

2012 Receiving
WR Chad Bumphis 58-922 12TD
WR Chris Smith 47-564 2TD
WR Arceto Clark 36-487 1TD

2010 .................................................... 2012
JC Brignone ........................................... Dillion Day
Gabe Jackson ........................................ Gabe Jackson
Addison Lawerence ................................ Justin Malone/Tobias Smith
Q Saulsberry .......................................... Charles Siddoway
Derek Sherrod ........................................ Blaine Clausell

2010 Non Conf: Memphis 1-11; Alcorn St 5-6; UAB 4-8; Houston 5-7; Michigan 7-6 ...22-38
2012 Non Conf: JSU 7-5; Troy 5-7; USA 2-11; MTSU 8-4; Northwestern 10-3 ...32-30

2010 conf aub 14-0; lsu 11-2; uga 6-7; uf 8-5; ky 6-7; ua 10-3; ark 10-3; om 4-8 ...69-35
2012 conf aub 3-9; ky 2-10; ut 5-7; ua 13-1; aTm 11-2; lsu 10-3; ark 4-8; om 7-6 ...55-46

to me we are calling plays like we are 2010 team, when we have a passing-spread team. We lacked in innovative offense. We didn't run enough screens; slants; waggles; or any routes that a quick passing team should have ran, in stead we would get in pistol and run a power or lead offset by a counter

our numbers might be better 2012 than 2010, but it is safe to say we faced a harder schedule in 2010, than in 2012
teams that won 5 games in 2010: 10
teams that won 5 games in 2012: 9

 

[Railin Jemmye]

Nobody doubts that we had a better team in 2010 than 2012. But it was because of the defense, not the offense.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Nobody doubts that we had a better team in 2010 than 2012. But it was because of the defense, not the offense.

When you run the ball, you have a better time of possession. Better TOP leads to the defense spending less time on the field.

I agree that the defense was horrible...but our offense WAS a major part of the problem. I may be wrong, but I bet our TOP was far better in 2010 than in 2012.

 

[ronpolk]

I don't think by any means our defense was good this past year but I wouldn't say it was awful. How many times did our defense get a turnover only to have our offense do nothing with it? However, the defense clearly went backwards under Wilson. Like many have said before play calling was our problem.

 

[maroonmania]

After watching the Gator Bowl...

if russell plays the majority of the games next year we will play hell winning more tha 5. he ain't gonna pick up any or enough speed this off season to help. dak will have to play in several games to keep us competitive.

I'm much more concerned about Russell's decision making and timing on his passes than I am his footspeed. Nobody expects him to be a true runner but I do expect him to be reasonably smart about WHERE he throws the ball and to get it there on time. He did neither of those in the bowl games.

 

[Coach 57]

As I said earlier, there is NOTHING worse as a DC to go from drawing up why this spread qb is breaking containment and trying to explain it then get told we just turned the ball over on offense. That doesn't happen AS much when you are a team that runs the ball like we did the last few yrs. We aren't built for a pass first offense (entire roster wise) and any DC worth a grain of salt can scheme Vs the O we put on the field this yr........and the ones that are good DID!

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

FYI, we turned it over four fewer times in 2012 than in 2010.

Certainly passing CAN open you up to more turnovers but it's proof of the kind of leap the passing game made in 2012.

140 more attempts. 3 fewer picks.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

FYI, TOP stats

2010: 31:32
2011: 26:10
2012: 30:01

Better, but not FAR better than 2010. Certainly a FAR better in 2012 than in 2011.

 

[RT23]

One thing to consider when looking at these numbers is the strength of defenses played between the two years. This makes a big difference in offensive production. I am looking specifically at SEC opponents since OOC opponents in these two years to make things even.

In 2010, the average "Total Defense" Rank of the SEC teams played was 34.
In 2012, the average "Total Defense" Rank of the SEC teams played was 54.
Our Total defensive rankings were 49th and 52nd respectively.

That is a pretty decent sized margin between 2010 and 2012. So in essence, the 2010 offense put up similar numbers against tougher defensive competition. I think the 2010 offense was more effective, albeit maybe not quite as exciting. Could it be more exciting and effective with Dak? I don't know because the QB's are not the only differences, but they do seem to be dictating the style of offense.

Do I think the offensive differences are large enough to create an uprising? No. But I do think 1 game was left on the table this year because of it.

Everyone always talks about beating the teams we are suppose to beat. That should be a given now. The next step is not beating the LSU's and Alabama's. It is beating mid tier competition (comparable to ourselves). We finished 3-2 in those games this year counting the bowl game. Not bad.

 

[gravedigger]

Time of possession

When you run the ball, you have a better time of possession. Better TOP leads to the defense spending less time on the field.

I agree that the defense was horrible...but our offense WAS a major part of the problem. I may be wrong, but I bet our TOP was far better in 2010 than in 2012.

Bingo

 

[SwingAway]

FYI, TOP stats

2010: 31:32
2011: 26:10
2012: 30:01

Better, but not FAR better than 2010. Certainly a FAR better in 2012 than in 2011.

How about let's look at our losses. 2010 and 2012 both teams were 8-4 4-4. In 2010 our losses came against the National Champs, the best 3 loss team eva, the Sugar Bowl champs, and at LSU. No one could concieve 4 tougher teams to play, and in none of those games did we give up. 2012 losses came to the National Champs, a TAMU team with an explosive offense and attackable defense (Arkansas 2010), at LSU, and the Bears.

The National Champs cancel out, Arky and TAMU cancel out, at LSU cancels out, which leaves 2010 Alabama vs the 2012 Bears. 2010 WAY STRONGER! Here's the stats for those losses, as losses are where blame needs to go... Because they're losses.

2010 15.5 ppg 2012 16.2 ppg

2010 325 YPG 2012 313 YPG

2010 170 Rush ypg 2012 56 rush ypg

2010 31-68 3rd down conversions 46%
2012 10-46 3rd down conversions 22%

Also we averaged a full 4:00 less in TOP in 2012 losses than 2010

Defense was bad but our offense did not allow us to compete this season. 56 rushing yards per game against weaker opponents. 22% on 3rd down giving them the ball right back. This is why we got blasted in those games. Our offense could not do **** until garbage time, where yards come easy, and we STILL couldn't match the YPG from 2010 with Chris 17ing Relf at QB.

And why are we clamoring for Russell again? Like we're going to change anything. TR is not that great of a QB, these losses have proven that. It is not a stretch to say that Dak would give us a better chance of success.

Give me Dak. Give me 2010 all day with the actual threat of a pass unlike Relf and give me my hope of an upset on gameday vs the big boys.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

It's cute how hard you try. So we got 12 fewer yards in our losses while scoring almost an extra point a game. Do you even read these posts before you hit send? It's clear that the coaching staff, who has more access than any of our resident "experts" here thought the defense was more of a problem (see: Wilson, Chris). But you keep it up champ.

FYI, here are the defensive stats you conveniently left out in our four conference losses....

2010: 388 ypg allowed, 28.5 PPG against, turnovers created 12
2012: 506 ypg allowed, 38.5 PPG against, turnovers created 8

Also, in our four conference losses in 2010 we committed 12 turnovers, in four conference losses in 2012 we committed 8

So to sum up your argument, our offense "did not allow us to compete" because when we compare conference losses they scored more and turned it over less.

Rocket surgeon achievement unlocked!

 

[SwingAway]

It's cute how hard you try. So we got 12 fewer yards in our losses while scoring almost an extra point a game. Do you even read these posts before you hit send? It's clear that the coaching staff, who has more access than any of our resident "experts" here thought the defense was more of a problem (see: Wilson, Chris). But you keep it up champ.

FYI, here are the defensive stats you conveniently left out in our four conference losses....

2010: 388 ypg allowed, 28.5 PPG against, turnovers created 12
2012: 506 ypg allowed, 38.5 PPG against, turnovers created 8

Also, in our four conference losses in 2010 we committed 12 turnovers, in four conference losses in 2012 we committed 8

So to sum up your argument, our offense "did not allow us to compete" because when we compare conference losses they scored more and turned it over less.

Rocket surgeon achievement unlocked!

Our 56 rushing yards a game and 22% 3rd down rate had nothing to do with giving the ball to the other team and having the defense out there.

BTW no one is letting the defense off the hook either but people like you putting all the blame on the D and not acknowledging that the offense was abysmal is absurd.

 

[Singer]

Look at the numbers, better yet go replay the games Prescott plays with more passion and has a since of leadership you can't teach. He makes people around him better, including Tyler. He needs to learn more but he is and will continue to get better. Until this O line can give both these guys 7-9 sec like Manziel had all year, production will be minimal. People can say the back up is always the answer. No not always however, sometimes you have to give them a shot especially when they earned it. Or when your starter throws 4 interceptions oh I mean 5. I would give a receiver a shot at QB. When something isn't working you have to change it and try other options and Prescott is a valid option. Just saying!!