My take
- Thread starter Bulldog from Birth
- Start date
If we split the Alabama and Ole Miss games, we are in the playoffs.
All of this assuming we beat Arkansas, UT Martin, and Vanderbilt.
All of this assuming we beat Arkansas, UT Martin, and Vanderbilt.
If we are 12-0 going into the SECCG and drop to 12-1 after, we are 100% IN the playoff
I dunno
I guess losing to UT Martin would be an automatic strike-out. But other than them, I feel ASSURED that we would survive an Arkansas loss if we won out. And really and truly, road wins in Tuscaloosa and Oxford, followed by an SEC Title would probably be enough to get us in as a 3rd or 4th seed even if we lost to Vandy.
I guess losing to UT Martin would be an automatic strike-out. But other than them, I feel ASSURED that we would survive an Arkansas loss if we won out. And really and truly, road wins in Tuscaloosa and Oxford, followed by an SEC Title would probably be enough to get us in as a 3rd or 4th seed even if we lost to Vandy.
I think his response assumed a split with Bama/TSUN. And he's right in that instance....2 losses, even if one is in Atlanta, and we would need a lot of help.
You guys are more comfortable than I am
We lose one, the wrong one, we will be the poster child for Out of Conf. scheduling. Make an example of us.
Yes this will improve going forward.
Lose the SEC Championship game....and move forward? Will also depend on the East side teams record, and how the situation plays out.
We just need to win.
We lose one, the wrong one, we will be the poster child for Out of Conf. scheduling. Make an example of us.
Yes this will improve going forward.
Lose the SEC Championship game....and move forward? Will also depend on the East side teams record, and how the situation plays out.
We just need to win.
Something I was thinking about today...
Will the committee punish a recent loss like traditional polls usually do?
The fact that Ole Miss is #4 makes me think that the committee isn't going to penalize a team for their loss being recent like the polls do.
The computer rating systems (used in the former BCS formula, for instance) don't care when you lost. Polls typically do. So I had been wondering where the committee would fall on that spectrum. If we relied on polls, a late loss would pretty much doom us, assuming the other 1-loss teams kept winning. We wouldn't have enough time to make up ground. But it appears the committee will look at the season as a whole and a late loss won't affect you any more than an early one will.
And that's only fair. If comparing two teams, there are more important things to compare than to arbitrarily place more importance on when they lost their games (this is assuming the losses are "quality" losses and you're not talking about a late-season slide or something).
Will the committee punish a recent loss like traditional polls usually do?
The fact that Ole Miss is #4 makes me think that the committee isn't going to penalize a team for their loss being recent like the polls do.
The computer rating systems (used in the former BCS formula, for instance) don't care when you lost. Polls typically do. So I had been wondering where the committee would fall on that spectrum. If we relied on polls, a late loss would pretty much doom us, assuming the other 1-loss teams kept winning. We wouldn't have enough time to make up ground. But it appears the committee will look at the season as a whole and a late loss won't affect you any more than an early one will.
And that's only fair. If comparing two teams, there are more important things to compare than to arbitrarily place more importance on when they lost their games (this is assuming the losses are "quality" losses and you're not talking about a late-season slide or something).
Agree with this...
I've already seen a few reporters take issue with our non-conference schedule (while conveniently ignoring the SEC teams we've already played). If we lose to anyone other than Bama or OM, we are definitely on the outside looking in.
I've already seen a few reporters take issue with our non-conference schedule (while conveniently ignoring the SEC teams we've already played). If we lose to anyone other than Bama or OM, we are definitely on the outside looking in.
And on top of that if you read the things the selection committee will consider, they say over and over and over that "conference championships" are important. that won't be determined until the very end of the year. i think the way that it should be applied is to teams within conferences. for instance, if a team ended up winning the conference with one loss, another one loss team in the same conference shouldn't make it in over them as long as they didn't play head to head. the thing that worries me is that the committee could totally change the standings on the last week based on "conference championships" and exclude the teams that are ranked high. like if the conference championship was tomorrow and oregon and michigan state won, they could knock ole miss and auburn out.
Late losses carry more weight than early losses though. I don't think we can afford to lose and expect to be in the Final 4.
No doubt our OOC schedule is not very challenging, but neither is Alabama's or the Bears'. OM beat Boise State but they're not very good this year. Alabama beat WVU but they're not all that great either (but pretty competitive).
What's funny is FSU's schedule. It's not their fault because they have to play in the ACC, but their OOC schedule is tougher than their conference schedule. They're the only really decent team in the ACC and it's uncertain exactly how good they really are. They're #2 largely on reputation at the moment.
What's funny is FSU's schedule. It's not their fault because they have to play in the ACC, but their OOC schedule is tougher than their conference schedule. They're the only really decent team in the ACC and it's uncertain exactly how good they really are. They're #2 largely on reputation at the moment.
Not sure how you gather this. The committee ranked Ole Miss 4th tonight and they lost this weekend. They are telling you that it doesn't matter when you lose. They are looking at resume. MSU excels here
This stuff drives me nuts. Many years literally half our schedule is against top 25 teams in conference. It is stupid to harp on OOC competition when your in conference games are that tough.
Hell, some of these "top ten" teams won't play as many ranked teams all year as we will play in November alone.