The reports that Joe Schad recently released got my imagination working into overdrive just now, and I just have to put the speculation out there to add to discussions. I will preface this by saying that I'm still not all too sold that the reports will happen exactly as stated nor do I want them to happen, but I can't deny the possibility of these events unfolding; which makes me feel that this scenario or one similar to it, at least, has a decent possibility of happening.<div>
</div><div>My idea has 4 waves of events, and, currently, we're in the 1st.</div><div>
</div><div>1st Wave: With aTm almost assuredly leaving the BigXII, we're going to see the preamble to the death of the BigXII. I really believe that if aTm were to leave, then the BigXII wouldn't die immediately, but if it's true that Mizzou is following suit then you can go ahead and put the final nail in the coffin. There is no way the BigXII canreassembleitself by replacing teams like aTm, Nebraska and Mizzou and jump up to 16 teams to remain relevant. Also, even though there are reports that FSU and Clemson are in talks with the SEC about future membership, I'm not too sold that those 2 will be the ones to be admitted mainly because of the coalition that UF, USCe and UGA have formed. If we take any teams from the ACC, they will more than likely be NCST and VT.</div><div>
</div><div>2nd Wave: With the Big XII vulnerable, the Pac-12 and B1G will do their best to pounce on the remains of the BigXII, and they will target 4 of the same schools in KU, OU, OSU and KState (only reason they're in the main 4 is because I truly believe the Kansas schools will be a package deal). I feel that the Kansas schools will end up in the B1G while the Oklahoma schools will migrate west. Now, there are 2 majoruncertaintiesin this wave and I feel those are if Texas will become independent and if Notre Dame remains independent. I think Notre Dame may finally jump to the B1G for reasons explained in the 3rd Wave. I'm not so sure about Texas, but let's just say hypothetically, for similar reasons with Notre Dame, they go west with TTU making the final teams in the Pac-16. At this point, the B1G will be 1 team short of becoming the B16 and the last team could be anyone, possibly even Cincy. I'm not sure who they'll grab, but they'll get someone.</div><div>
</div><div>3rd Wave: This will be one of the more interesting ones since I feel that it will determine who survives between the Big East and the ACC. My money is on the ACC. Even though the SEC takes 2 of their teams, they're able to rebuild by devouring the Big East. The main reason why the Big East will cave in is because of the amount of schools they have that are either basketball only or all sports excluding football only. There's no way they'll be able to hold together and you'll see the ACC jump for schools like WVU, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt, Rutgers, and UConn. Hypothetically, if they're able to entice all 6 of these schools, then the ACC is a little better off than where they were before, especially if they only lose NCST and VT. Their thoughts should be to secure the largest basketball presence but still be relevant in football. These 6 schools allows this to happen. Once the Big East is dismantled, this will leave Notre Dame to find another conference, with the most logical option being the B1G. ND will try to convince the B1G to let them in for all sports other than football, but I think the B1G will stick to their guns and tell Notre Dame that they need the conference more than the conference needs them now. With all things considered, this may not fall on deaf ears any longer and ND will probably concede.</div><div>
</div><div>Final Wave: Now that the Big XII and Big East are destroyed, this leaves 1 final chance for the non-AQ schools to try to get an auto bid (if we're still going to have the same setup with all of the super conferences). There's 2 ways this can play out. The first is that conferences like CUSA and MWC will try to take whatever schools they can and make their own 16 team "super" conference and hope that both of them can take the AQ bids that the Big East and Big XII once had.</div><div>
</div><div>The second is a little bit different... A new conference will form altogether, convincing the rest of the schools that there won't be 2 AQ bids and their only chance is to form one more conference that will be convincing enough to gain a 5th and final AQ bid. They will try to take the best of the rest and ignore geography altogether and form the last super conference. I'm just going to hazard a guess that the final teams will look something like so: Boise (if Texas does join the Pac-12), TCU, BYU, Houston, Baylor, Nevada, UCF, USF, ECU, Tulsa, Fresno, Cincy (if the B1G feels they don't need 2 teams in Ohio), SMU, Hawaii and the last 2 teams could be almost anyone. This will leave any team not invited into any 16 team conference to fade off into obscurity.</div><div>
</div><div>The chances of the shakeup looking exactly like this is not too likely, but the chances of aTm and Mizzou jumping to the SEC and causing a massive domino effect throughout the NCAA is. We'll just have to wait see how everything turns out.</div><div>
</div><div>Edited to add minor revisions and more specifications and thoughts.</div>
</div><div>My idea has 4 waves of events, and, currently, we're in the 1st.</div><div>
</div><div>1st Wave: With aTm almost assuredly leaving the BigXII, we're going to see the preamble to the death of the BigXII. I really believe that if aTm were to leave, then the BigXII wouldn't die immediately, but if it's true that Mizzou is following suit then you can go ahead and put the final nail in the coffin. There is no way the BigXII canreassembleitself by replacing teams like aTm, Nebraska and Mizzou and jump up to 16 teams to remain relevant. Also, even though there are reports that FSU and Clemson are in talks with the SEC about future membership, I'm not too sold that those 2 will be the ones to be admitted mainly because of the coalition that UF, USCe and UGA have formed. If we take any teams from the ACC, they will more than likely be NCST and VT.</div><div>
</div><div>2nd Wave: With the Big XII vulnerable, the Pac-12 and B1G will do their best to pounce on the remains of the BigXII, and they will target 4 of the same schools in KU, OU, OSU and KState (only reason they're in the main 4 is because I truly believe the Kansas schools will be a package deal). I feel that the Kansas schools will end up in the B1G while the Oklahoma schools will migrate west. Now, there are 2 majoruncertaintiesin this wave and I feel those are if Texas will become independent and if Notre Dame remains independent. I think Notre Dame may finally jump to the B1G for reasons explained in the 3rd Wave. I'm not so sure about Texas, but let's just say hypothetically, for similar reasons with Notre Dame, they go west with TTU making the final teams in the Pac-16. At this point, the B1G will be 1 team short of becoming the B16 and the last team could be anyone, possibly even Cincy. I'm not sure who they'll grab, but they'll get someone.</div><div>
</div><div>3rd Wave: This will be one of the more interesting ones since I feel that it will determine who survives between the Big East and the ACC. My money is on the ACC. Even though the SEC takes 2 of their teams, they're able to rebuild by devouring the Big East. The main reason why the Big East will cave in is because of the amount of schools they have that are either basketball only or all sports excluding football only. There's no way they'll be able to hold together and you'll see the ACC jump for schools like WVU, Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt, Rutgers, and UConn. Hypothetically, if they're able to entice all 6 of these schools, then the ACC is a little better off than where they were before, especially if they only lose NCST and VT. Their thoughts should be to secure the largest basketball presence but still be relevant in football. These 6 schools allows this to happen. Once the Big East is dismantled, this will leave Notre Dame to find another conference, with the most logical option being the B1G. ND will try to convince the B1G to let them in for all sports other than football, but I think the B1G will stick to their guns and tell Notre Dame that they need the conference more than the conference needs them now. With all things considered, this may not fall on deaf ears any longer and ND will probably concede.</div><div>
</div><div>Final Wave: Now that the Big XII and Big East are destroyed, this leaves 1 final chance for the non-AQ schools to try to get an auto bid (if we're still going to have the same setup with all of the super conferences). There's 2 ways this can play out. The first is that conferences like CUSA and MWC will try to take whatever schools they can and make their own 16 team "super" conference and hope that both of them can take the AQ bids that the Big East and Big XII once had.</div><div>
</div><div>The second is a little bit different... A new conference will form altogether, convincing the rest of the schools that there won't be 2 AQ bids and their only chance is to form one more conference that will be convincing enough to gain a 5th and final AQ bid. They will try to take the best of the rest and ignore geography altogether and form the last super conference. I'm just going to hazard a guess that the final teams will look something like so: Boise (if Texas does join the Pac-12), TCU, BYU, Houston, Baylor, Nevada, UCF, USF, ECU, Tulsa, Fresno, Cincy (if the B1G feels they don't need 2 teams in Ohio), SMU, Hawaii and the last 2 teams could be almost anyone. This will leave any team not invited into any 16 team conference to fade off into obscurity.</div><div>
</div><div>The chances of the shakeup looking exactly like this is not too likely, but the chances of aTm and Mizzou jumping to the SEC and causing a massive domino effect throughout the NCAA is. We'll just have to wait see how everything turns out.</div><div>
</div><div>Edited to add minor revisions and more specifications and thoughts.</div>
