There seems to be some evidence to that yet Terry Smith has been able to turn that around some. I think clarity comes Saturday after Kiffen makes his decision/announcement and there will then be rapid movement with PSU toward the bottom of the pecking order for coaches. I'll take Chesney.
Coach opening pecking order:
1a) LSU
1b) Florida
3) Florida State after they fire their coach
4) Ole Miss if Kiffin leaves
5) Auburn
6) PSU
Wild cards:
- Alabama if Deboer decides to bolt
- Washington if Fisch takes an SEC job
Curious why you consider PSU a "bottom of the barrel" school. Especially Auburn, Ole Miss, and FSU. Is Neeli et al that tight with the pursestrings? Kraft that much of a problem? Central PA that crappy a location? Maybe today's coaches don't want a 100,000 plus seat venue to showcase their talent.
I would put PSU up with LSU and Florida, maybe even give a nod to PSU given that the path to the playoff would be better than getting pounded in an increasingly competitive SEC. Ole Miss and Auburn certainly below PSU - Ole Miss is simply not in that tier (if they were, why would Kiffen leave?), and Auburn has had some very uninspiring coach hirings recently. FSU might have a decent path to the playoff thru the ACC, but their coach isn't gone yet.
Of all the schools you mentioned, Bama is head and shoulders above the rest given their commitment to their program. Problem there is that it's a pressure cooker job.
If PSU really is a bottom of the barrel job, then I'd say hire Terry Smith now and be done with it. Chesney would probably get snapped up by another school first, if they wanted to take a chance on him, but if Chesney succeeds, why would he stay at a second-tier school like Penn State?