New Perfect Game Regional Projections.

[Requiem For A Dawg]

Has us as the #2 seed in the Louisville Regional matched up with the Eugene Regional.

Has Arky and USCe hosting.
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=8430

 

[8dog]

I just dont get the usc love. They are two games ahead of us in conf but are 8-1 against ga tenn and mizzou

They are a spot back in the rpi

They are 10-10 against the top 50 and we are 17-13

Not sure we should host but Just dont undersatnd how they are such a lock

 

[57stratdawg]

That would suck.

 

[chew1095]

These folks dont know a damn thing about regional host projections. There is no way Ark can host under any set of circumstances.**************************************

 

[graddawg]

Several of the national guys have us on the wrong side of the hosting bubble as of today. Aaron Fitt of Baseball America killed our resume saying that we have not taken a series from anyone that is on par with or "better" than us. Unfortunately, he is right. If we don't take care of business against USC, a resume that relies on series wins against A&M, Bama, UF and Auburn may not impress the committee regardless of RPI and/or schedule strength.

 

[engie]

These folks dont know a damn thing about regional host projections. There is no way Ark can host under any set of circumstances.**************************************

Good thing none of them are on a selection committee huh?

No power conference team since 1998 has hosted with a final RPI worse than #31. Will they go against history for this Arky team? We'll see... but historically, it's infinitely more likely that we get sent on the road with our #10 RPI than Arky hosting with a high30s/low40s rpi.

 

[KurtRambis4]

I just don't

see it, either. It's honestly just a popularity contest. USC is just the bigger name in college baseball, now, so they're going to get the benefit of the doubt. I really think that's what it boils down to. Of course, we can change this with taking 2/3 from them this weekend. We have got to do this, to take their spot, I think. against similar conference opponents we are 9-9 and they are 8-9 (rainout at Vandy). However, of those 5 opponents we played all but two (UF/LSU) on the road. They played all but two (UF/LSU) at home.

 

[LandArchDawg]

We've got to break out of the going .500 in the conference habit...

That is the only way to avoid this bubble we constantly find ourselves in. It is like clockwork just about every year.

 

[KurtRambis4]

Im

not trying to build an excuse, but it doesn't help that we are playing UF, Vand, and USC from the East. That is just plain ridiculous. I mean Vandy is the best team in the country, LSU isn't too far behind, and Arkansas was the preseasn #1...then throw in USC and UF. I know UF has stuggled, but they've got the talent to beat anyone on any given day, and USC...well they're USC.

 

[CadaverDawg]

That is the only way to avoid this bubble we constantly find ourselves in. It is like clockwork just about every year.

How are we supposed to break away from getting 17ed with our schedule?

If we had USC's schedule, we are likely at 16-17 wins going INTO this last series. It's f'd up.

 

[engie]

see it, either. It's honestly just a popularity contest. USC is just the bigger name in college baseball, now, so they're going to get the benefit of the doubt. I really think that's what it boils down to. Of course, we can change this with taking 2/3 from them this weekend. We have got to do this, to take their spot, I think. against similar conference opponents we are 9-9 and they are 8-9 (rainout at Vandy). However, of those 5 opponents we played all but two (UF/LSU) on the road. They played all but two (UF/LSU) at home.

Tremendous points. Our resume is at least as good as theirs is right now. Whoever wins the series in Starkville this weekend most likely is in the driver's seat to host IMO...

Arky is not "hosting competition" to either one of us -- since their resume is entirely different and built on a totally different set of circumstances. Either the committee foolishly values conference record and they are a lock to host -- or they value RPI and overall body of work -- and they don't.

 

[MSUDC11]

If we sweep SC and get the 4 seed, I just don't see any way we don't host.

We would have a better RPI, SOS, conference record, and obviously head to head record than them. No excuse for them hosting over us if that happens.

That scenario may be fairly unlikely, but it's possible. Very similar to the UK series at the end of last year.

If we win 2/3, we probably need two wins in Hoover. If we are the 5 or 6 seed, we should get another shot at SC or Arkansas, so beating whoever on Tuesday plus one of those in our second game would certainly help.

 

[LandArchDawg]

By winning games and series we should win...

Win the UKY and OM series and sweep Auburn and we are sitting differently.

 

[patdog]

I think a lot of these so-called "experts" are way off base on their predictions this year.

 

[InaccuratePredictionsDawg]

According to today's...

..breakdown via Nolan, here's the USCe vs. MSU numbers:

MSU RPI = 10

USCe's RPI = 11

*****

MSU's SOS = 8

USCe's SOS = 21

*****

MSU's conference record = 14-13

USCe's conference record = 16-10

*****

MSU's overall record = 38 -15

USCe's overall record = 38 -14

****

MSU is 7-9 on the road; USCe is 10-6 on the road.

****

Our worst loss (2) was against 77 PRI Central Arkansas.

USCe's worst losses were against 142 RPI Missouri, 105 RPI Furman, 78 RPI Liberty, 175 RPI Gardner-Webb.

Conclusion: Taking into consideration USCe's 4 losses were to some of the shittiest RPI teams in the nation, if we take 2 out fo 3 from them, we'll host over them.

This is the pure math.

E-mail this to the brain trust @ Perfect Game & see if they still think USCe's will host if they lose the MSU series. (Of course, I realize Perfect Game thinks USCe will win the MSU series. That's pretty obvious).

Final note: I realize it is a popular belief on this board that it is impossible to use the SECT to play your way into a hosting spot. I watched Ole Miss do it about around 5 years ago. Please tell me what has changed since those 5 years have gone by.

 

[chew1095]

Uh, if the committee values conference record, I'd say Arksans is very much our competition. Whether we can mathematically get close to their overall SEC record with only 3 conference games left is an issue in itself, but Arkansas is and always has been our "comeptition."

Whether the committee prefers RPI, conference record or some blended approach, neither Rogers nor anyone on here has a damn clue. However, there is no denying that if we do not host, we are entirely to blame for it. We could easily be about +3 or +4 in the conference win column.

 

[engie]

Uh, if the committee values conference record, I'd say Arksans is very much our competition. Whether we can mathematically get close to their overall SEC record with only 3 conference games left is an issue in itself, but Arkansas is and always has been our "comeptition."

You missed my point.

No, they are not our competition for a hosting slot. They will either host or they won't -- there isn't a damn thing we can do to change it -- and their destiny is already prettymuch set in stone depending on what the committee values. Nothing we can do or they can do(short of getting swept -- which they won't) between now and then will change their destiny. That makes them in no way our competition for a host slot at this point.

USCe is our competition -- with a very similar resume overall -- and consequently the team we get on our home field to close out the season.

However, there is no denying that if we do not host, we are entirely to blame for it. We could easily be about +3 or +4 in the conference win column.

I never understand why our fans always choose to only look at one side of the coin like this, which is in effect an effort to show underachievement. We could just as easily have lost a bunch of other close games to terrible teams throughout the year and taken ourselves out of contention altogether...

Bottom line is we are where we deserve to be. Which is pretty amazing, considering our 2 best MLB pitching talents were either injured or completely shat the bed this year -- and our third best was dinged up most of the season. Remove Nola and Eades, Beede and Ziomek, Wahl and Mayers, Stanek and Astin, etc from other staffs, and what do you have?

 

[chew1095]

I think we are basically saying the same thing. You are saying they are not our competition RIGHT NO because there is no way in hell to jump them or tie them in conference record because there are only 3 games left. Put another way, its not an either Ark or MSU. It is more than likely an either USCe or MSU. With that, I believe I agree.

I am still pissed about LSU, Ark and UK losses. Havent gotten over those and they are so unbelievably damaging right now.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

Has us as the #2 seed in the Louisville Regional matched up with the Eugene Regional.

Has Arky and USCe hosting.
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=8430

Should have won the Kentucky and Central Arkansas series. Two average teams that are not even in this projection field. If we take care of business this weekend, we will host. If not, we have nobody to blame but ourselves. Can't get too mad at the committee for not selecting a team that has zero series wins against good teams.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Win the UKY and OM series and sweep Auburn and we are sitting differently.

So in other words, our requirements are different than everyone else's?

We played Kentucky and Ole Miss on the road, and Kentucky was actually playing good at that time.

Also, we were swept 1 time this year and it was AT #1 Vandy. South Carolina was swept 3 times in SEC play! And 2 of those were at home! Of their 16 conference wins...8 have been against the bottom 3 teams in the conference. Eight of them! We played zero of those 3 bottom feeders.

It is a crime that SEC record is even considered this year with such an unbalanced schedule.

However, I will say this....if we don't beat the team just described 2 out of 3 times in Starkville...we probably don't deserve to host anyway. But my point is...resume-wise, this weekend shouldn't matter because even if we win 1 our hosting résumé is better than South Carolina's. people want to talk about them winning 2 of 3 at LSU, but ignore that they were swept 3 times in conference, and twice in their own damn park.

I don't have a problem with us having to play a better schedule...but I have a problem that our conference records are viewed from the same viewpoint even though they are completely different. If the schedule is unbalanced, then SEC record shouldn't be a criteria looked at for hosting.

 

[615dawg]

Every spot on the committee. Look at the last three years. Arkansas will host if they win 2/3 against Auburn. I know you guys think I'm nuts, but I think they will host.

Kansas State is creeping up into the discussion. Its possible that K-State could take Arkansas' geography edge away. K-State is likely to have a top 20 RPI when its all said and done.

It looks like the national guys are thinking that between us, Clemson and South Carolina - with two of the three getting hosts. I'd add South Alabama to that list of four and bet that two of those four will get a host.

 

[patdog]

It's not possible that K-State will take Arkansas' geography edge away. K-State WILL host a regional unless they just collapse. I know the Big 12 is down, but K-State is going to win that league running away. That plus an RPI 20 spots higher than Arkansas will look a lot better to the selection committee.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

A couple of things....

We haven't beaten anyone better than us because they are better than us - LSU and Vandy. We did lose to some teams not as good as us though. I think we are better than UK and UM but not by much, and I think if we play ARK 100 times we split 50-50. So that leaves USC and we will find out a lot about both teams. They have some nice wins and some strange losses too.

If the committee had to go blind resume in making choices, we would be in good shape. But unfortunately when you attach the MSU name to a resume and the USC name to another, we come out on the short end. I'm not saying it's right and that we don't have as much of a case to host as our other competitors, but you get folks in a room behind locked doors and it's much easier to trash on Starkville and say no one wants to go there. Because Columbia and Fayetteville and Bloomington IN and other exotic locales like that are such hotspots I suppose. They probably have an Outback or something. You can lie to yourself and say that kind of bias doesn't exist but all you have to do is look at douches like Pat Forde and Ted Miller to know they are dumb enough to say (and write) what others are thinking about our fair hamlet.

 

[CadaverDawg]

A couple of things....

We haven't beaten anyone better than us because they are better than us - LSU and Vandy. We did lose to some teams not as good as us though. I think we are better than UK and UM but not by much, and I think if we play ARK 100 times we split 50-50. So that leaves USC and we will find out a lot about both teams. They have some nice wins and some strange losses too.

If the committee had to go blind resume in making choices, we would be in good shape. But unfortunately when you attach the MSU name to a resume and the USC name to another, we come out on the short end. I'm not saying it's right and that we don't have as much of a case to host as our other competitors, but you get folks in a room behind locked doors and it's much easier to trash on Starkville and say no one wants to go there. Because Columbia and Fayetteville and Bloomington IN and other exotic locales like that are such hotspots I suppose. They probably have an Outback or something. You can lie to yourself and say that kind of bias doesn't exist but all you have to do is look at douches like Pat Forde and Ted Miller to know they are dumb enough to say (and write) what others are thinking about our fair hamlet.

You damn right. Well said. It's unfortunate that that's the case, but you're spot on.

 

[KurtRambis4]

Exactly.

I think if you do a "blind resume" analysis, then there's no doubt State deserves a spot over USC, at this point.

Some clowns get on Cohen's *** about making the statement about being a better team than UK. I think he is spot on, though. Evan Mitchell gave them that series. Thanks. If our two teams play 10 times, we probably win 7.

Kentucky 1st - A. Cousino hit by pitch (0-0). Z. Zellers walked (3-2 BBSFBB); A. Cousino advanced to second. A.J. Reed walked (3-0 BBBB); Z. Zellers advanced to second; A. Cousino advanced to third. M. Kuhn walked, RBI (3-2 BBKFBB); A.J. Reed advanced to second; Z. Zellers advanced to third; A. Cousino scored. Mitchell, R. to p for Mitchell, E.. J.T. Riddle walked, RBI (3-1 BBBKB); M. Kuhn advanced to second; A.J. Reed advanced to third; Z. Zellers scored. Pollorena to p for Mitchell, E.. K. Barrett fouled out to lf, SF, RBI (3-2 KBBKBF); A.J. Reed scored. P. McConkey popped up to ss (2-2 KKFBB). M. Thomas flied out to cf (1-0 B). 3 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors, 2 LOB.

 

[engie]

Every spot on the committee. Look at the last three years. Arkansas will host if they win 2/3 against Auburn. I know you guys think I'm nuts, but I think they will host.

Why do you presume to know what a committee will think...when no two committees ever even think the same thing twice in a row? One thing that is readily apparent is that they have paid close attention to RPI for as long as I've researched, which is the entire super regional era.

There will be outrage all over college baseball when/if Arkansas hosts this year with that joke of a schedule, bad losses, and RPI. That much, I can promise. One redeeming factor doesn't overcome those tremendously bad factors. If they deserve to host on conference record, we surely deserve to host with no bad losses.

The methodology for selection has been released before -- and it's generally resumes without team names... If that happens(and we take 2 of 3 this weekend), we are hosting IMO...

 

[jamdawg96]

Every projection has South Carolina and Clemson hosting. In my opinion, they are both safe. USC has bad losses, but they beat LSU 2/3 on the road and swept UK. Arkansas, South Carolina, and Arizona State are all very similar... really good wins and really bad losses. We are more on the USA/KSU level... nothing fancy but nothing terrible. I think winning a big series says more than losing bad one. That, however, is merely a personal opinion... but the national analysts seems to agree.

If you compile the projections, the following 14 teams are safely IN right now (all major projections have the same 8 teams as nat'l seeds):

Vandy
UNC
LSU
Virginia
Oregon State
Fullerton
Florida State
Oregon
---
NC State
UCLA
Clemson
Indiana
South Carolina
Louisville

Unless one of those bottom teams falls flat on their face, I think those 14 are safe bets. That leaves two spots left. Baseball America, Perfect Game, and (for good measure) SEBaseball.com all have different combos of Arkansas, Arizona State, and Kansas State occupying the last two spots. It comes down to a series win over South Carolina vaulting us over TWO of those teams to host. I don't think the committee will give both Arkansas and Kansas State host spots (although Baseball America disagrees). If Arkansas and KSU split a regional, that leaves the last spot to either us, Arizona State, or the darling wildcard... South Alabama.

 

[57stratdawg]

I don't think we'll even be in the discussion if we lose two this weekend. I think that's pretty fair, regardless of our resume.

 

[lasher8]

Thanks for the wave of nausea that just swept over me while reading this...

Kentucky 1st - A. Cousino hit by pitch (0-0). Z. Zellers walked (3-2 BBSFBB); A. Cousino advanced to second. A.J. Reed walked (3-0 BBBB); Z. Zellers advanced to second; A. Cousino advanced to third. M. Kuhn walked, RBI (3-2 BBKFBB); A.J. Reed advanced to second; Z. Zellers advanced to third; A. Cousino scored. Mitchell, R. to p for Mitchell, E.. J.T. Riddle walked, RBI (3-1 BBBKB); M. Kuhn advanced to second; A.J. Reed advanced to third; Z. Zellers scored. Pollorena to p for Mitchell, E.. K. Barrett fouled out to lf, SF, RBI (3-2 KBBKBF); A.J. Reed scored. P. McConkey popped up to ss (2-2 KKFBB). M. Thomas flied out to cf (1-0 B). 3 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors, 2 LOB.

 

[jamdawg96]

I disagree...

MSU Noteworthy Series Wins: Florida, Auburn, Alabama
USC Noteworthy Series Wins: Clemson, LSU, Kentucky

MSU SEC Series Losses: Arkansas, LSU, Kentucky, Vandy, Ole Miss
USC SEC Series Losses: Arkansas, Vandy, Florida

South Carolina looks stronger to me, unless we take the series this weekend. Neither team has a "bad" series loss. The committee is gonna keep this simple so they can defend it during TV interviews and ****. We gotta win this weekend.

 

[CadaverDawg]

MSU Noteworthy Series Wins: Florida, Auburn, Alabama
USC Noteworthy Series Wins: Clemson, LSU, Kentucky

MSU SEC Series Losses: Arkansas, LSU, Kentucky, Vandy, Ole Miss
USC SEC Series Losses: Arkansas, Vandy, Florida

South Carolina looks stronger to me, unless we take the series this weekend. Neither team has a "bad" series loss. The committee is gonna keep this simple so they can defend it during TV interviews and ****. We gotta win this weekend.

So, getting swept in Every one of your series losses isn't bad? They got swept in all 3, and two of them were at home. And again, give South Carolina Ole Miss instead of Tennessee, and they likely lose that series on the road too. Every one of our series losses, except for LSU, was on the road. There is no shame in losing a series 2-1 on the road in the SEC. There IS shame in getting swept in 2 series at home. But maybe that's just me

 

[jamdawg96]

Their Florida series (swept) was on the road. Only their home series loss to Arky was a true sweep.

Just keeping it simple. Any time I've heard an NCAA committee member speak on tv/radio about why they chose this or that, it's always some really broad, simple reason. You can talk about getting swept at home (by good teams), but then you have to think that at least one of those is negated by the LSU road series win. Or sweeping a team like UK (who Florida and State couldn't take series from).

They are 2-2 in series against "host" caliber teams. We are 0-3.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Their Florida series (swept) was on the road. Only their home series loss to Arky was a true sweep.

Just keeping it simple. Any time I've heard an NCAA committee member speak on tv/radio about why they chose this or that, it's always some really broad, simple reason. You can talk about getting swept at home (by good teams), but then you have to think that at least one of those is negated by the LSU road series win. Or sweeping a team like UK (who Florida and State couldn't take series from).

They are 2-2 in series against "host" caliber teams. We are 0-3.

They were beaten 2 out of 2 at home against Vandy. That's a sweep.

I agree with you on the other....but it's still bull ****. This unbalanced SEC schedule has to go. If we had Georgia instead of Vandy, we are at minimum 16-11 and this series against South Carolina has no effect on our hosting unless we get swept. That is why the unbalanced schedule is unfair....bc if it were a balanced schedule this conversation wouldn't be happening and we could go ahead and book rooms in Starkville for the Regional.

Maybe I'm just looking at the big picture more than some people. For instance, let's say we lose 2 of 3 to South Carolina and miss out on hosting. Then, we get put in a National Seeds Regional and lose in the 2nd game of the Regional Championship. Do you realize the money, publicity, recruiting we missed out on by not hosting? We are also trying to give Stricklin a reason to throw big money at a new baseball facility....what if the unbalanced schedule keeps us from hosting and thus costs us a potential chance at a CWS appearance because we draw a bad matchup? A CWS appearance would be a strong case for a new stadium....not to mention the recruiting effect it will have.

Obviously, there is no way of knowing, and you still have to beat teams to earn your way....but there is no doubt that it could hurt us in more ways than just not being able to host.

All of that being said....I am still hopeful that the committee will look at blind resumes and not see a team name by each. We should 100% host with a series win this weekend though.

And by the way, jam, I agree that South Carolina has better wins and worse losses....therefore I think they should look at the overall resumes, and in my opinion ours is clearly better.

 

[patdog]

Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure the unbalanced schedule is here to stay. There's just no good alternative to fix it. They're not going to add games, and they're not going to play mid-week games. I do think they could alleviate it some by doing away with divisions (there's no more need for them in baseball than there is in basketball) and set up a rotation where each team has 1 permanent opponent and then rotates 3 of the remaining 12 off the schedule each year. It still wouldn't be balanced, but since the West has historically been MUCH better than the East, you could set it up to more balanced than it is now.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure the unbalanced schedule is here to stay. There's just no good alternative to fix it. They're not going to add games, and they're not going to play mid-week games. I do think they could alleviate it some by doing away with divisions (there's no more need for them in baseball than there is in basketball) and set up a rotation where each team has 1 permanent opponent and then rotates 3 of the remaining 12 off the schedule each year. It still wouldn't be balanced, but since the West has historically been MUCH better than the East, you could set it up to more balanced than it is now.

Yea, there's just not a good solution. Just throwing this out there to see what people think....but what if we had like Missouri and South Carolina in for a weekend series and did it like we do the pre-SEC schedule? Like the Purdue/Samford weekend? Is there any way that we could rotate a few weekends like that with teams from the opposite division so that everyone played everyone at least twice?

This may not be possible, but since teams would be traveling anyway, it seems like it could work, plus it would prepare you a little more for postseason play. But then again, I would hate to have to come up with the schedules.

 

[patdog]

That's actually not too bad. You'd play 6 teams twice each and 7 teams 3 times each for a total of 33 games. I doubt the SEC would go for 3 additional games or for a 4 home - 6 road weekend conference series though.

 

[haildearoldstate]

I suggest you play the teams in your division 3 times (18 games) and the teams

in the other division 2 games (14) for a total of 32 games.

 

[KurtRambis4]

I go back

to what I said earlier. Against like opponents (conference), we are 9-9 and they are 8-9. They got fortunate with the rain-out vs the best team in the country. Of those 5 common opponents, I believe all but two were on the road for us. However, USC faced all but two at home. It makes a difference playing at home vs on the road.

 

[patdog]

That would be ideal from a competitive standpoint. But I don't know how you'd make it work from a scheduling standpoint. My idea was to play some 4-game weekends with for instance, MSU and UM playing at UF and UGA. Thur-Fri at one site and then switch up for Sat-Sun. But with 14 teams that would get real complicated. I think we're going to be stuck with a 30-game, 10-weekend schedule and have to try to make it as balanced as we can with that format. I think the best compromise would be to do away with the divisions and have each team miss 1 of the weaker teams every year.

 

[CadaverDawg]

to what I said earlier. Against like opponents (conference), we are 9-9 and they are 8-9. They got fortunate with the rain-out vs the best team in the country. Of those 5 common opponents, I believe all but two were on the road for us. However, USC faced all but two at home. It makes a difference playing at home vs on the road.

You're exactly right, Kurt. On the surface, it looks "nit-picky" to try and say there is a large discrepancy in ours and USC's schedules....but when you break it down like you just did, you can see just how huge the difference is. Not only was their overall schedule easier, but they had e home field advantage in tough games going for them as well, for the most part.

Good stuff, Kurt.