New Polling is ugly for DJT
- Thread starter dpic73
- Start date
Mine was hit pretty hard as well and for all the talk about the record breaking stock market, I'm basically flat since October. Tired of the yo-yo effect caused by his unpredictable temper tantrums.
Generally I'm fairly flat as well, not accounting for my new money I've put in and employer match in my 401k.
IBM got crushed today... down more than 14% up a bit after market. Brutal. i've got enough but it's hard to pass up after a drop like that.
Oh yes, a right-wing pollster that shows a 4 point spread among "people who watched the SOTU" means it's going to be armageddon for libs.
"The Trafalgar Group is a polling firm frequently identified as having a Republican-leaning bias, often producing results that differ from conventional polling averages. It is known for using a "black-box" methodology, specifically focusing on reaching voters who may be hesitant to share their true opinions with other pollsters.
- Methodology: The firm does not publicly release detailed, traditional methodological data, often citing the need to o protect proprietary methods that identify "shy" voters or account for "social desirability bias".
- Bias: Critics and media analysts often categorize the firm as right-leaning or Republican-aligned due to its polling trends.
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112% of morons agree with all of your takes.
Says the part-time DoorDash driver who ignores all the empirical evidence we have for the special elections and doesn't understand how polling works.
The gerbil must have died from your catturd acid reflux
The latest on Trump’s approval rating
Updated February 27, 2026
Last update, I wrote about why we apply a house effects adjustment using the example of a recent InsiderAdvantage poll that showed Donald Trump with a positive net approval rating. Since then, we’ve gotten some extreme results in the other direction:- Ipsos/The Washington Post/ABC: -21 net approval rating.
- CNN/SSRS: -27
- American Research Group: -26
Most Americans strongly approve or disapprove of the job Trump is doing, while comparatively fewer only somewhat approve or disapprove. But since we started tracking these numbers back in May, nearly all of the decline in his popularity has come from these “strong” groups. The share of Americans who strongly approve of Trump has dropped from 34 percent when he was inaugurated to just 24 percent today, while the share who strongly disapprove has risen from 31 percent to 45 percent. In comparison, when you draw lines through Trump’s weak job approval and disapproval numbers, they’re essentially flat. -EMD, 2/23/26
Trafalgar Group was the outlier
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
www.natesilver.net
Let me help you out, if you're only polling people who watched the SOTU and that group is smaller than it's ever been, that limited sample is already inclined to approve of him and when you combine that with a right-leaning pollster who doesn't reveal their methodology, well, this is what you get - red meat for morons...who is we???? Are you part of a special elections polling group ???
You make it too easy
Updated February 27, 2026
Last update, I wrote about why we apply a house effects adjustment using the example of a recent InsiderAdvantage poll that showed Donald Trump with a positive net approval rating. Since then, we’ve gotten some extreme results in the other direction:
As a result, Trump’s net approval rating in the Silver Bulletin average is down to -14.9, only 0.1 points above its second term low. And under the hood, some of the numbers look even more bearish for Trump than that topline would imply.
- Ipsos/The Washington Post/ABC: -21 net approval rating.
- CNN/SSRS: -27
- American Research Group: -26
Most Americans strongly approve or disapprove of the job Trump is doing, while comparatively fewer only somewhat approve or disapprove. But since we started tracking these numbers back in May, nearly all of the decline in his popularity has come from these “strong” groups. The share of Americans who strongly approve of Trump has dropped from 34 percent when he was inaugurated to just 24 percent today, while the share who strongly disapprove has risen from 31 percent to 45 percent. In comparison, when you draw lines through Trump’s weak job approval and disapproval numbers, they’re essentially flat. -EMD, 2/23/26
Trafalgar Group was the outlier
View attachment 1200785
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
What were you saying about right leaning pollsters??
“Nate Silver generally identifies as a moderate liberal or independent, though his, political views and analysis often draw criticism from both the left and the right. He has described his position as being "in between being a libertarian and a liberal”
That septum ring must be on fire today
Again, you're proving your simpleton bonafides. Nate Silver is NOT the pollster, he consolidates the polls and gives you the averages, lol. We are talking about Trafalgar, the pollster you cited.You make it too easy
What were you saying about right leaning pollsters??
“Nate Silver generally identifies as a moderate liberal or independent, though his, political views and analysis often draw criticism from both the left and the right. He has described his position as being "in between being a libertarian and a liberal”
That septum ring must be on fire today
Good lord you’re an idiot. Why was this linked to the bottom?Again, you're proving your simpleton bonafides. Nate Silver is NOT the pollster, he consolidates the polls and gives you the averages, lol. We are talking about Trafalgar, the pollster you cited.
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
www.natesilver.net
LOLOL, BECAUSE I copied and pasted the top paragraph from that article and used his graph (from that article) that showed the averages!Good lord you’re an idiot. Why was this linked to the bottom?
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
He updates the polling every day.It was to show you what real polling shows in aggregate. Heavens to murgatroyd you smooth brained dotard.
You really are a clutter brained lunatic.LOLOL, BECAUSE I copied and pasted the top paragraph from that article and used his graph (from that article) that showed the averages!
It was to show you what real polling shows in aggregate. Heavens to murgatroyd you smooth brained dotard.
“The polls on Donald Trump's approval rating used in OUR average and how influential they are”
-Nate Silver
Yeah, Nate Silver is an aggregator so "his average" is the combination of all the polls that he's looking at to consolidate into one graph. He's not conducting any polls, he's just consolidating a bunch of polls and provided an aggregate view. Similar to the old 247 Composite recruiting ranking that blended ESPN/Yahoo/247/whatever it was
Correct, he used to do the same thing as the founder of FiveThirtyEight and now publishes his online newsletter, the Silver Bulletin. He's also an advisor for Polymarket.
The only thing that REALLY matters is what independents think. Republicans are gonna vote Republican and Democrats are gonna vote Democrat 90+% of the time. Anyone who tells you diffierent is full of it. And there's a growing number of people on both sides of the aisle that claim to be independent, but really are folks that regularly vote one way or the other almost all the time. They are just embarrassed to be a part of either party (which I totally get).
Here's a gallop link that shows some interesting data:
news.gallup.com
Take special note of the portion of the Independents that DON'T lean right or left. That's ABOUT 10% of the electorate most years. THAT'S the group of people that decide elections by and large. And polls right now are like College Football rankings right now. Worth NOTHING!
Here's a gallop link that shows some interesting data:
Party Affiliation
In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? (Asked of independents: As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?)
news.gallup.com
Take special note of the portion of the Independents that DON'T lean right or left. That's ABOUT 10% of the electorate most years. THAT'S the group of people that decide elections by and large. And polls right now are like College Football rankings right now. Worth NOTHING!
That gas station sushi photo was so good I made it my avatar. Props.
The "Trafalgar Group?!" What the hell is THAT? Another poll of White House employees?
Might as well be haha
"The Trafalgar Group is a polling firm frequently identified as having a Republican-leaning bias, often producing results that differ from conventional polling averages. It is known for using a "black-box" methodology, specifically focusing on reaching voters who may be hesitant to share their true opinions with other pollsters.
- Methodology: The firm does not publicly release detailed, traditional methodological data, often citing the need to o protect proprietary methods that identify "shy" voters or account for "social desirability bias".
- Bias: Critics and media analysts often categorize the firm as right-leaning or Republican-aligned due to its polling trends.
Definitely right-leaning poll. Did a little research on all the polls NS uses for his bulletin.
Have to credit Dpic there
Wait...there are gas stations with sushi? Or is that just in NorCal?
...and some people look down their noses at buc-ees.
I don't have one near me but the Buc-ees I stopped at on a road trip blew my mind. You have to see it to believe it. No kidding, one of the best brisket sandwiches I've ever had.
polling so bad overall that he's even backing off the deportations after dumping Noem.