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BigWill

Heisman
Jul 25, 2001
54,435
33,140
113
Republicans have less than a 15% chance of holding the House. Even that much exists because (a) there aren't all that many competitive seats and (b) redistricting over the past 18 months netted the GOP probably 6-8 seats they wouldn't previously have had. So basically, it is very unlikely Rs will retain power here.

Moving to the Senate, let's call it 50/50. As you know, Rs have a 4 seat advantage (tie goes to the VP Party), and there is only a single Senate race in a state Harris won (Susan Collins). Dems have to hold seats in two Trump won states (MI and GA, the latter is a lock). So in a neutral environment, you'd kind of expect the net gain to be even.

To get 4 seats, Dems have to win several states that Trump won by more than 10%, and they have a 50% chance of doing so. North Carolina is the only "close" seat that went Trump's way in 2024, and Dems are a complete lock in that race. Dems then have to win two of Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Alaska, and hold the state of Michigan. Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Alaska ... man those are lefty places ... lol. Again, Dems must win two of these states.

Republicans losing the Senate is a humiliating outcome that is a categorical rejection of the last two years. Maybe they ultimately hold on, which probably means that the election was poor but less than catastrophic.

Drano,

Here's one of your polls: Harvard-Harris generic poll as of late August has made a 6 % point shift since March and now STANDS at 51 - 49 % percentage points Republican favored to Democrat.
 

BigWill

Heisman
Jul 25, 2001
54,435
33,140
113
I agree with DeSantis in that local media in Massachusetts are outing the juror and setting him up as the sole nay vote (a bad guy) among a group of liberal jurors.

As far as the jurors, here is what one of the woman jurors has insisted on sharing publicly (why?):

"One of the 11 jurors who wanted to find Massachusetts mom Lindsay Clancy not criminally responsible for killing her three children said the panel (jury) viewed the case as a chance to make things "better for other women" and families — a thought process that one legal analyst is calling "problematic."

"Even though we didn't know what was going on outside of our little bubble that we were in, we knew that this was a turning point, and this would be something that could change something to make it better for other women in the future, for other families," 65-year-old Clancy juror Paula Devlin told "CBS Saturday Morning" over the weekend. "You know, justice for those children is never happening again."

In other words, the kids are dead so why not use her opportunity as a juror to push her social agenda with the jury verdict.

Bottom line: I don't know what instructions the jury was given on how to interpret the law but kudos to Ron DeSantis for sticking up for freedom of speech and thought.

How does murdering her THREE children made "it better for women " ?
 

BigWill

Heisman
Jul 25, 2001
54,435
33,140
113
AI is moving so fast, I haven't seen the outline of one realistic proposal on "reining it in" and certainly wouldn't trust Anthropic, which is the underlying issue -- who can you trust? Political science classes are probably at a standstill and politicians are trying to learn to speak out of more than 2 sides of their mouths. The old adage, follow the money, comes to mind.
Trusting policies going opposite of Chi-na wants is probably the wisest action.

Just like not having Amazon ship bat soup to your door.
 

Uncoach

Heisman
Dec 8, 2011
7,409
10,925
113
Juror Paula Devlin later said the panel saw the case as a chance to “make it better for other women” and families.

Was it really about post partum?

I think this is a bit of a tightrope to walk. Do we want to excuse all sorts of bad behavior from women that just had babies?

Dahmer was crazier than a ********* rat. Experts described a mix of conditions rather than one diagnosis: necrophilia (a paraphilic disorder), borderline personality disorder, schizotypal personality disorder, and alcohol dependence. Some also noted antisocial traits. Defense psychiatrists argued the necrophilia and related disorders amounted to a mental disease that left him unable to control himself.

He was convicted in less than a 10 hour deliberation by a wise jury.

I am not a legal expert, but I think the message needs to always be very strong punishment, especially in brutal murder cases.

I am guessing anyone willing to murder innocent people are some form of crazy.
Yes. This was a case for liberal women that reflects “if the glove don’t fit, you must acquit.” Despite OJ being guilty as hell that was a social justice payback to the system. Expect to see more feelings over facts nonsense as there are non-profs training lefties for potential jury duty, how to answer questions to get chosen and then how to screw up the trial decision all for “just” cause. My how the left has apparently churned sympathy from unexpected places. I remember almost everyone in America being pissed off that Casey Anthony didn’t get convicted of 1st degree murder. That decision came down in 2011. 15 years later now we are letting someone off scott-free who murdered all 3 of her kids. Pure insanity.
 
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AzIllini

All-Conference
Apr 26, 2003
2,525
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View attachment 1439137
This is what MAGA seeks to undo to return America to Greatness. Just a cult of xenophobic racists.
I don't get it? What is MAGA undoing? Since you are using xenophobic, I assume this is race based?

Big win to shock the world on Saturday-Texas over tOSU. I kinda enjoyed it even though both schools are easy to dislike.
 
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stoneaxe27

All-American
Sep 22, 2006
5,893
6,735
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I don't get it? What is MAGA undoing? Since you are using xenophobic, I assume this is race based?

Big win to shock the world on Saturday-Texas over tOSU. I kinda enjoyed it even though both schools are easy to dislike.



You are in the Bubble Bud. A Republican candidate for statewide office in Texas is facing backlash from members of his own party after he shared a 'racist' post.
Bo French, the Republican nominee for the Texas Railroad Commission, shared a post on X Sunday morning showing non-white students at the University of Texas celebrating the school's stunning victory over Ohio State the night before.

He claimed it was evidence that the state's 'institutions have been overrun by illegal aliens and foreign nationals.


'I heard UT graduation this year looked like this, I didn't believe it,' French wrote. 'The problem is now obviously far worse than anyone imagined.'
 
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Uncoach

Heisman
Dec 8, 2011
7,409
10,925
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You are in the Bubble Bud. A Republican candidate for statewide office in Texas is facing backlash from members of his own party after he shared a 'racist' post.
Bo French, the Republican nominee for the Texas Railroad Commission, shared a post on X Sunday morning showing non-white students at the University of Texas celebrating the school's stunning victory over Ohio State the night before.

He claimed it was evidence that the state's 'institutions have been overrun by illegal aliens and foreign nationals.


'I heard UT graduation this year looked like this, I didn't believe it,' French wrote. 'The problem is now obviously far worse than anyone imagined.'
Au contraire, mon frere. One person does not represent all Republicans or all of MAGA, let alone a guy with the last name of “French”. /MFGA!
 

dtrain79

Heisman
Jul 13, 2006
48,874
27,776
113
Juror Paula Devlin later said the panel saw the case as a chance to “make it better for other women” and families.

Was it really about post partum?

I think this is a bit of a tightrope to walk. Do we want to excuse all sorts of bad behavior from women that just had babies?

Dahmer was crazier than a ********* rat. Experts described a mix of conditions rather than one diagnosis: necrophilia (a paraphilic disorder), borderline personality disorder, schizotypal personality disorder, and alcohol dependence. Some also noted antisocial traits. Defense psychiatrists argued the necrophilia and related disorders amounted to a mental disease that left him unable to control himself.

He was convicted in less than a 10 hour deliberation by a wise jury.

I am not a legal expert, but I think the message needs to always be very strong punishment, especially in brutal murder cases.

I am guessing anyone willing to murder innocent people are some form of crazy.

The legal question on insanity - and most insanity defenses fail miserably - is whether the Defendant understands that their action is wrongful. Dahmer clearly knew that it was, and had a pattern or practice that made such knowledge obvious (I mean, he hid his crimes from the police, including the time they showed up at his door while he was in the process of murdering someone).

Was he crazy by the standards you and I think? Oh hell yes. By the legal standard for an insanity defense? Not even close.

I am obviously a process-driven person (see my views on politics), but the process requires the state to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that this lady knew her conduct was wrongful. I think there is a fair bit of evidence she did not. But my opinion isn’t worth much, I don’t know all the evidence presented in court. I do know that 11 of 12 jurors felt the state did not meet its burden. I highly doubt all were lefty activists and I wouldn’t even be surprised if a few voted for the Trumpster.

Btw, Andrea Yates was first convicted in her case but after a retrial (because a state expert witness lied on the stand), she was acquitted in Houston. She has been civilly committed since.
 

ILisBest

All-American
Jun 16, 2007
7,843
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The legal question on insanity - and most insanity defenses fail miserably - is whether the Defendant understands that their action is wrongful. Dahmer clearly knew that it was, and had a pattern or practice that made such knowledge obvious (I mean, he hid his crimes from the police, including the time they showed up at his door while he was in the process of murdering someone).

Was he crazy by the standards you and I think? Oh hell yes. By the legal standard for an insanity defense? Not even close.

I am obviously a process-driven person (see my views on politics), but the process requires the state to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that this lady knew her conduct was wrongful. I think there is a fair bit of evidence she did not. But my opinion isn’t worth much, I don’t know all the evidence presented in court. I do know that 11 of 12 jurors felt the state did not meet its burden. I highly doubt all were lefty activists and I wouldn’t even be surprised if a few voted for the Trumpster.

Btw, Andrea Yates was first convicted in her case but after a retrial (because a state expert witness lied on the stand), she was acquitted in Houston. She has been civilly committed since.
I believe she sent her husband to the store so she could choke them out. Knowing if he was there, he would stop her. I am guessing she knew it was wrong when she sent him.

She never reported hearing voices in her numerous counseling sessions prior to the murders, but the first time a voice speaks to her, she does the unthinkable. I can't imagine the horror for those children as their mom choked them. I would send her to prison.

Prosecutors argued this was deliberate: she chose a farther restaurant than usual, searched Apple Maps for travel time, called the pharmacy to confirm stock, and created a window of time and privacy. They presented that as evidence of planning. The defense did not dispute that she sent him out or that she killed the children.
 
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