NIL and Recruiting

[Eagleton95.99]

New analysis on NIL / “GM-ing” vs. recruiting

My player development thread clearly pointed to Pikiell being a good player development coach, and also showed in pretty stark relief how bad recruiting has been.

But traditional recruiting has now largely been replaced by general managing with a salary pool. So I thought it was worth looking at where Rutgers stacked up this year and where we may stack up next year based on total roster funding.

The total player-compensation pool is a combination of:

• revenue share from the House settlement / NCAA structure
• NIL / collective / third-party funding

It has been reported that Rutgers was about $4M all-in this past year, and could be $8M-$10M all-in next year.

So how does that compare?

The best starting point is the conference-wide estimate. The widely cited 2025-26 coaches-survey estimate put the average Big Ten men’s basketball roster cost at about $8.5 million all-in, split roughly into $3.1 million in direct revenue share and $5.4 million in third-party NIL / collective-type money.

From there, we can layer in the specific team numbers that have actually been reported.


Teams with public reporting that they were at or above the top tier:

• Indiana: reported at $10 million for the 2025-26 men’s basketball roster.
• Michigan: identified as part of the national “$10 million club” in a widely circulated article.

So right away, we know the Big Ten includes at least two teams clearly above the $8.5M average.


Teams with strong evidence of upper-tier spending, even if not with a clean full-roster audited number:

• Maryland / Iowa / Washington: national roster-market estimates cited in Maryland coverage had Maryland at $7.1M in incoming-transfer NIL, Iowa at $6.6M, and Washington at $5.9M.

That is not the same thing as a full all-in roster number. It is only NIL for new incoming transfers — not NIL for returning players, and not revenue share. So the true all-in numbers for those teams were likely meaningfully higher.


Teams with obvious resource-heavy brands:

Although I did not find a public reported number for all of them, it is safe to assume the traditional resource-rich brands are spending at least around the league average, and in some cases above it.

• Teams like Ohio State and Oregon are probably above average.
• UCLA, USC, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin are unlikely to all be far off the leaders.

I’m less sure where to put Penn State and Purdue.

• Purdue is not a traditional mega-money brand, but it is a basketball-focused program, so I would assume they are at least around the league average unless evidence says otherwise.
• Penn State is a resource-rich athletic department overall, but it has much less basketball tradition / donor urgency, so that one is harder to place.

Teams with public signals that they were not in the top band:

• Rutgers: Steve Pikiell said the money was supposed to be in the “$3 million range,” which sounds much more like a direct institutional / revenue-share number than a true all-in roster total. If the reported ~$4M all-in number is accurate, that would imply roughly $1M in outside NIL / collective support.
• Nebraska: Troy Dannen said Nebraska’s collective had less than $10 million total across sports, compared with $23 million for Ohio State and Oregon. That does not give us Nebraska basketball specifically, but it is a strong indicator Nebraska was not flush with basketball money relative to the league’s biggest brands.
• Minnesota: reported in the $5M-$6M range, with later reporting describing the total men’s basketball player budget as “in the neighborhood of $6 million.”
• Northwestern: no strong public number, but its collective TrueNU shut down after the House settlement, which at minimum suggests Northwestern was in transition rather than operating from a position of obvious spending strength.

So what can we infer from all that?

If the Big Ten average is $8.5M, and we already know:

• Indiana is around $10M
• Michigan is at least $10M
• Maryland, Iowa, and Washington appear to have had very serious spend and almost certainly ended up well above $8.5M all-in
• Minnesota appears to have been around $6M
• and obvious resource-heavy brands like Ohio State, Oregon, UCLA, USC, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin are unlikely to far from the league average

...then a Rutgers number of $4M all-in almost has to place Rutgers near the very bottom of the Big Ten. Likely bottom two and possibly rock bottom depending on what Northwestern did. My guess is a roughly 2 way tie for last with NW.

But wait, it gets worse when you look at the math.

• Rutgers at $4M would be $4.5M below average
• a $10M team in the top band is only $1.5M above average

So Rutgers at $4M would be much farther below the average than a $10M team is above it. That strongly suggests the league is not centered neatly around $8.5M. More likely, the spending distribution looks something like this:

• a few teams at $10M+
• a substantial main band around the average or somewhat above it
• and a few teams well below the average dragging the mean down to $8.5M

If that is right, then Rutgers this year was not just “below average.” Rutgers was way below average — and operating with a true bottom-tier, "league of its own" Big Ten salary pool.

What will $8-10M buy us next year? I don't know. I do think there will be inflation. I think the league average will move up from $8.5M as teams compete. But I don't think it will move up that much. So I think most teams will be clustered in the $9-12M range and Rutgers will be roughly in line with the league average.

 

[NickRU714]

I've come to see that people and media reports are widely inconsistent in using the appropriate terms.

They conflate and confuse:

• "All-in" (good term to use btw)
• Institutional Revenue Share
• 3rd party NIL.

 

[Eagleton95.99]

True. A lot of the reporting talks about one piece. Either the revenue share (usually around 3 mil for most schools) or the NIL or the NIL just for incoming players.

 

[Degaz-RU]

I can almost guarantee that Michigan was WAY above $10 million payroll. Yaxel Lendeborg ALONE was paid somewhere in the $3.5 million range.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

I can almost guarantee that Michigan was WAY above $10 million payroll. Yaxel Lendeborg ALONE was paid somewhere in the $3.5 million range.

Michigan is closer to 20M all in for their current roster. Sparty north of 15M, same as Indiana, Illinois and USC, Washington. UCLA is around 15M but less than these schools in the B1G.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Hans Steinbach, the 5* Center who was a freshman international recruit and played at Washington this past season, had a price tag around 4M......

The prior year, before Utah State coach Danny Sprinkle left there to go to Washington, one of the conditions on taking the job, was to ensure he had his starting center follow him after the 2023-24 season and go to Washington for the 2024-25 season. That player was Great Osobor.....he captured around 2M before the 2024-25 season.


Great Osobor, a standout forward from Utah State and the 2024 Mountain West Player of the Year, transferred to the University of Washington for the 2024-25 season. He secured a massive Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deal reported to be worth $2 million, making him one of the highest-paid players in college basketball.

• Deal Details: The $2 million NIL package includes marketing assurances, arranged by agent George Langberg of GSL Sports.

 

[SF88]

Michigan - 20M #1 seed
MSU - 15M #3 seed
Illinois - 15M #3 seed
Purdue - 9M #2 seed
UCLA - 10M #7 seed
do we all see the trend here?
Indiana -15M no guarantee of success ( beat us )
USC - 15M no guarantee of success ( beat us )

Dad always said if you want to run with the whores, you better be prepared to be a *****. All the numbers will go up as well. Going into next year we still won't be in the top 1/3 of conference in NIL, so what is our expectation on number on W's, or even making the tournament?

 

[Kbe4]

"If that is right, then Rutgers this year was not just “below average.” Rutgers was way below average — and operating with a true bottom-tier, 'league of its own' Big Ten salary pool."

If that is right then kudos to the coaching staff for doing more with far less and not finishing at the bottom of the league.

 

[Anon1754923206]

New analysis on NIL / “GM-ing” vs. recruiting

My player development thread clearly pointed to Pikiell being a good player development coach, and also showed in pretty stark relief how bad recruiting has been.

But traditional recruiting has now largely been replaced by general managing with a salary pool. So I thought it was worth looking at where Rutgers stacked up this year and where we may stack up next year based on total roster funding.

The total player-compensation pool is a combination of:

• revenue share from the House settlement / NCAA structure
• NIL / collective / third-party funding

It has been reported that Rutgers was about $4M all-in this past year, and could be $8M-$10M all-in next year.

So how does that compare?

The best starting point is the conference-wide estimate. The widely cited 2025-26 coaches-survey estimate put the average Big Ten men’s basketball roster cost at about $8.5 million all-in, split roughly into $3.1 million in direct revenue share and $5.4 million in third-party NIL / collective-type money.

From there, we can layer in the specific team numbers that have actually been reported.


Teams with public reporting that they were at or above the top tier:

• Indiana: reported at $10 million for the 2025-26 men’s basketball roster.
• Michigan: identified as part of the national “$10 million club” in a widely circulated article.

So right away, we know the Big Ten includes at least two teams clearly above the $8.5M average.


Teams with strong evidence of upper-tier spending, even if not with a clean full-roster audited number:

• Maryland / Iowa / Washington: national roster-market estimates cited in Maryland coverage had Maryland at $7.1M in incoming-transfer NIL, Iowa at $6.6M, and Washington at $5.9M.

That is not the same thing as a full all-in roster number. It is only NIL for new incoming transfers — not NIL for returning players, and not revenue share. So the true all-in numbers for those teams were likely meaningfully higher.


Teams with obvious resource-heavy brands:

Although I did not find a public reported number for all of them, it is safe to assume the traditional resource-rich brands are spending at least around the league average, and in some cases above it.

• Teams like Ohio State and Oregon are probably above average.
• UCLA, USC, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin are unlikely to all be far off the leaders.

I’m less sure where to put Penn State and Purdue.

• Purdue is not a traditional mega-money brand, but it is a basketball-focused program, so I would assume they are at least around the league average unless evidence says otherwise.
• Penn State is a resource-rich athletic department overall, but it has much less basketball tradition / donor urgency, so that one is harder to place.

Teams with public signals that they were not in the top band:

• Rutgers: Steve Pikiell said the money was supposed to be in the “$3 million range,” which sounds much more like a direct institutional / revenue-share number than a true all-in roster total. If the reported ~$4M all-in number is accurate, that would imply roughly $1M in outside NIL / collective support.
• Nebraska: Troy Dannen said Nebraska’s collective had less than $10 million total across sports, compared with $23 million for Ohio State and Oregon. That does not give us Nebraska basketball specifically, but it is a strong indicator Nebraska was not flush with basketball money relative to the league’s biggest brands.
• Minnesota: reported in the $5M-$6M range, with later reporting describing the total men’s basketball player budget as “in the neighborhood of $6 million.”
• Northwestern: no strong public number, but its collective TrueNU shut down after the House settlement, which at minimum suggests Northwestern was in transition rather than operating from a position of obvious spending strength.

So what can we infer from all that?

If the Big Ten average is $8.5M, and we already know:

• Indiana is around $10M
• Michigan is at least $10M
• Maryland, Iowa, and Washington appear to have had very serious spend and almost certainly ended up well above $8.5M all-in
• Minnesota appears to have been around $6M
• and obvious resource-heavy brands like Ohio State, Oregon, UCLA, USC, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin are unlikely to far from the league average

...then a Rutgers number of $4M all-in almost has to place Rutgers near the very bottom of the Big Ten. Likely bottom two and possibly rock bottom depending on what Northwestern did. My guess is a roughly 2 way tie for last with NW.

But wait, it gets worse when you look at the math.

• Rutgers at $4M would be $4.5M below average
• a $10M team in the top band is only $1.5M above average

So Rutgers at $4M would be much farther below the average than a $10M team is above it. That strongly suggests the league is not centered neatly around $8.5M. More likely, the spending distribution looks something like this:

• a few teams at $10M+
• a substantial main band around the average or somewhat above it
• and a few teams well below the average dragging the mean down to $8.5M

If that is right, then Rutgers this year was not just “below average.” Rutgers was way below average — and operating with a true bottom-tier, "league of its own" Big Ten salary pool.

What will $8-10M buy us next year? I don't know. I do think there will be inflation. I think the league average will move up from $8.5M as teams compete. But I don't think it will move up that much. So I think most teams will be clustered in the $9-12M range and Rutgers will be roughly in line with the league average.

This looks like when one of my students cheat with AI but swear it is all their work!

 

[LotusAggressor_rivals]

Michigan - 20M #1 seed
MSU - 15M #3 seed
Illinois - 15M #3 seed
Purdue - 9M #2 seed
UCLA - 10M #7 seed
do we all see the trend here?
Indiana -15M no guarantee of success ( beat us )
USC - 15M no guarantee of success ( beat us )

Dad always said if you want to run with the whores, you better be prepared to be a *****. All the numbers will go up as well. Going into next year we still won't be in the top 1/3 of conference in NIL, so what is our expectation on number on W's, or even making the tournament?

Certainly makes filling out the bracket easier.

 

[Eagleton95.99]

This looks like when one of my students cheat with AI but swear it is all their work!

This was totally AI supported. It's my work. I directed the analysis and went back and forth on what I wanted it to say and then edited the results. But no way I'd have time to do an analysis like this without AI.

 

[tru2ru1]

Michigan paid Yaxel $5 million & offered Braden Smith from Purdue $4 million to transfer, but Purdue matched the UM offer

 

[Kbe4]

Michigan paid Yaxel $5 million & offered Braden Smith from Purdue $4 million to transfer, but Purdue matched the UM offer

Great coaching by the Michigan staff.

 

[RUBlackout]

You have to spend somewhere above $10m if you want to dance it seems. This doesn’t show the teams that spent that much or more and didn’t make the dance but you get the point

 

[Eagleton95.99]

Michigan is closer to 20M all in for their current roster. Sparty north of 15M, same as Indiana, Illinois and USC, Washington. UCLA is around 15M but less than these schools in the B1G.

I heard that many of the top teams were able to funnel a lot of one time money into the salary pool before the new NIL rules were set. So it will be interesting to see if the numbers for the very top teams come back closer to the league average.

 

[SF88]

There are no NIL rules……or ones that are enforced at the P4 level

 

[Eagleton95.99]

There are no NIL rules……or ones that are enforced at the P4 level

With the House Settlement, the NCAA lost the ability to loosely “oversee” NIL, which previously meant any money that could be raised could be packaged as NIL, and replaced it with what is supposed to be a more regulated system:

• A College Sports Commission (CSC) now acts as a clearinghouse + regulator.
• Athletes must report NIL deals > $600 within 5 days.
• Deals are reviewed for “fair market value” and legitimacy.

 

[SF88]

With the House Settlement, the NCAA lost the ability to loosely “oversee” NIL, which previously meant any money that could be raised could be packaged as NIL, and replaced it with what is supposed to be a more regulated system:

• A College Sports Commission (CSC) now acts as a clearinghouse + regulator.
• Athletes must report NIL deals > $600 within 5 days.
• Deals are reviewed for “fair market value” and legitimacy.

Then explain the reported roster expenses of 15-20M for the better B1G teams. There's no tampering allowed either......how are those sanctions on Ole Miss going?? President Tate even acknowledged it. NCAA and and thoughts of rules/enforcement is all a joke. That's what got RU into this negative cycle. We were too afraid to do the wrong thing, while the big boys were out buying players and putting us in the rear view. What's 1M, in the big picture to keep Cliff to play with Ace/Dylan. Chump change now and we the chumps.

 

[Eagleton95.99]

I’m

Then explain the reported roster expenses of 15-20M for the better B1G teams. There's no tampering allowed either......how are those sanctions on Ole Miss going?? President Tate even acknowledged it. NCAA and and thoughts of rules/enforcement is all a joke. That's what got RU into this negative cycle. We were too afraid to do the wrong thing, while the big boys were out buying players and putting us in the rear view. What's 1M, in the big picture to keep Cliff to play with Ace/Dylan. Chump change now and we the chumps.

The reported roster expenses of 15 to 20 mil were reported as relying on NIL sources that would be in theory disallowed under the new rules.

it’s totally fair to doubt the NCAA‘s ability or stomach to enforce this. Also, I don’t know if anyone knows what will happen now in terms of illegal payments. It’s possible that the bagman will still be out there, although it’s also possible they’ll be less important now that there’s a significant amount of above the table money. So we’ll just have to see what happens. but if the rules are vaguely followed by the Big Ten teams, then those salary figures should come down a little.

Not sure what you’re saying regarding Cliff. It’s a crime against humanity that Rutgers couldn’t somehow scrape up 1 million to support him with Ace and Dylan there. Would have changed everything but that has nothing to do with the rules.

 

[Mholinko]

I’m

The reported roster expenses of 15 to 20 mil were reported as relying on NIL sources that would be in theory disallowed under the new rules.

it’s totally fair to doubt the NCAA‘s ability or stomach to enforce this. Also, I don’t know if anyone knows what will happen now in terms of illegal payments. It’s possible that the bagman will still be out there, although it’s also possible they’ll be less important now that there’s a significant amount of above the table money. So we’ll just have to see what happens. but if the rules are vaguely followed by the Big Ten teams, then those salary figures should come down a little.

Not sure what you’re saying regarding Cliff. It’s a crime against humanity that Rutgers couldn’t somehow scrape up 1 million to support him with Ace and Dylan there. Would have changed everything but that has nothing to do with the rules.

I think we all want to believe NIL will be regulated because the truth of the matter is it’s the fastest way for Rutgers to become competitive in that area is for the ceiling to be lowered more than our floor be raised as to what can be spent

the truth of it is even if it is enforced to some extent there is a 0.0% chance we will ever be on a level playing field spending wise with Michigan Ohio state Michigan state Indiana Illinois etc

 

[LotusAggressor_rivals]

With the House Settlement, the NCAA lost the ability to loosely “oversee” NIL, which previously meant any money that could be raised could be packaged as NIL, and replaced it with what is supposed to be a more regulated system:

• A College Sports Commission (CSC) now acts as a clearinghouse + regulator.
• Athletes must report NIL deals > $600 within 5 days.
• Deals are reviewed for “fair market value” and legitimacy.

Sure they are.

 

[-RUFAN4LIFE-]

Michigan - 20M #1 seed
MSU - 15M #3 seed
Illinois - 15M #3 seed
Purdue - 9M #2 seed
UCLA - 10M #7 seed
do we all see the trend here?
Indiana -15M no guarantee of success ( beat us )
USC - 15M no guarantee of success ( beat us )

Dad always said if you want to run with the whores, you better be prepared to be a *****. All the numbers will go up as well. Going into next year we still won't be in the top 1/3 of conference in NIL, so what is our expectation on number on W's, or even making the tournament?

The reported NIL will not put RU in the top half of the conference. They will be in the 12-14 range so people need to temper expectations. They will have a better roster but it’s not going to make them a lock for the tournament or even a bubble team without exceeding expectations.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

The reported NIL will not put RU in the top half of the conference. They will be in the 12-14 range so people need to temper expectations. They will have a better roster but it’s not going to make them a lock for the tournament or even a bubble team without exceeding expectations.

It’s not a linear relationship though between money and success. That’s not to say more isn’t always better (of course it is), but the 2M extra from 6M to 8M is going to be more impactful in competing game in and out than the 2M difference from 14M to 16M. Only 5 guys play at a time so if you can afford 7 or so quality players you give yourself a chance.

 

[bigbirdru]

Iowa is a perfectly reasonable comp. According to this article their NIL is only around 4 mil. Let’s just say it’s 8-10 mil, which is our goal. They went 10-10 in conference, 9 seed in the NCAA tourney in coaches first season. Anyone crying that our NIL makes it impossible for Pikiell is making excuses.

 

[Mholinko]

View attachment 1225446

Iowa is a perfectly reasonable comp. According to this article their NIL is only around 4 mil. Let’s just say it’s 8-10 mil, which is our goal. They went 10-10 in conference, 9 seed in the NCAA tourney in coaches first season. Anyone crying that our NIL makes it impossible for Pikiell is making excuses.

This is exactly reasonable and every Rutgers fan will take this

 

[AdventureHasAName]

This is exactly reasonable and every Rutgers fan will take this

Iowa is full of 18 year old kids that actually want the free college education.

 

[bac2therac]

Some of these numbers are slightly inflated given earlier Matt Norlander numvmbers reported

 

[Mholinko]

Iowa is full of 18 year old kids that actually want the free college education.

Yeah they probably turned down the $$$

 

[LotusAggressor_rivals]

View attachment 1225446

Iowa is a perfectly reasonable comp. According to this article their NIL is only around 4 mil. Let’s just say it’s 8-10 mil, which is our goal. They went 10-10 in conference, 9 seed in the NCAA tourney in coaches first season. Anyone crying that our NIL makes it impossible for Pikiell is making excuses.

Iowa's coach is better and their players are more skilled.

 

[RUforester72]

 

[dpwhite]

No idea if this is legit but sharinf

 

[bac2therac]

These numbers seem a little low for the top schools but no one really knows and agendas sometimes driven to inflate or deflate rosters

There are posters here proclsiming if we dont have 15 million we cant compete

Thats why all the nil salaries should be made available

 

[Sweet Pea's Corner]

If that is right then kudos to the coaching staff for doing more with far less and not finishing at the bottom of the league.

Just for that reason Pike deserves an extension.

 

[Fat Koko]

Wall Street Journal published an article today on Iowa's new head coach, Ben McCollum.

Article is behind a strong paywall. Here are key quotes:

"McCollum’s system was founded on a simple principle: Do not settle for anything less than exactly the shot you want. When the Bearcats had the ball, they played like chess masters, unlocking the defense with slow, patient attacks until openings inevitably appeared."

Ben: “Some of the teams that may spend the most money or on paper may have the most talent don’t necessarily win,” McCollum said. “Because they’re not a connected group.”

Ben, in his debut season as a power conference head coach, won more NCAA games in 72 hours at Iowa than Pike has won in 10 years at Rutgers.

 

[bigbirdru]

Wall Street Journal published an article today on Iowa's new head coach, Ben McCollum.

Article is behind a strong paywall. Here are key quotes:

"McCollum’s system was founded on a simple principle: Do not settle for anything less than exactly the shot you want. When the Bearcats had the ball, they played like chess masters, unlocking the defense with slow, patient attacks until openings inevitably appeared."

Ben: “Some of the teams that may spend the most money or on paper may have the most talent don’t necessarily win,” McCollum said. “Because they’re not a connected group.”

Ben, in his debut season as a power conference head coach, won more NCAA games in 72 hours at Iowa than Pike has won in 10 years at Rutgers.

Also made a sweet 16 which mccaffrey never did in 15 years!

 

[RUfan1977]

This looks like when one of my students cheat with AI but swear it is all their work!

Your comment reminds me when I was taught to use a slide rule and to write in script. I am sure your students will appreciate all the time they spend learning obsolete writing skills.

This generation will need to learn how to use AI effectively because during their professional lives they will be expected to use it and it will not be considered cheating. Not sure what level you teach and I can’t say basic writing skills aren’t worthwhile, but incorporating something that will likely become as common as a calculator into every day life would seem worthwhile.

Of course back in my day cheating would be writing a report almost verbatim from the Encyclopedia Britannica and back then it didn’t seem possible that encyclopedias would become obsolete.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

These numbers seem a little low for the top schools but no one really knows and agendas sometimes driven to inflate or deflate rosters

There are posters here proclsiming if we dont have 15 million we cant compete

Thats why all the nil salaries should be made available

Bac

i don’t know what will happen for this coming year but what I hear is that we are going to see a massive inflation from last year . Lot of schools that were behind last year are getting “mobilized”…(including us to an extent). There will be a larger pool of money to spend by the power programs , pushing up the ask price

how much …? Hard to quantify …but I think at least 20%…and maybe a third . It’s going to be a top heavy market for the top 150 players returning …..

 

[RU-ROCS]

These numbers seem a little low for the top schools but no one really knows and agendas sometimes driven to inflate or deflate rosters

There are posters here proclsiming if we dont have 15 million we cant compete

Thats why all the nil salaries should be made available

Also, NIL is separate from revenue share. The X post does not say whether this is just NIL or includes revenue share. Many have speculated that without football, Big East teams can share more revenue with hoops players than the Big 10 does. But, who knows?

 

[EddieWilsonLives]

the really good Fairfield big , freshman , he is good enough to move up. he's from Newark I think.

 

[EddieWilsonLives]

^Brandon Benjamin