OFFICIAL NET Thread - 2022/23

[kcg88]

With wins like that why are they a “dumb outlier” at this point?

If a blue blood had that early resume you wouldn’t think twice

Because we know they won't end up there. That's why KenPom and Torvik keep some preseason ratings baked in for a while.

The rating itself isn't dumb. The problem is people will see that and not understand it and use it to argue against the NET altogether.

 

[billgumpper]

UMass Lowell is #53 so that's currently a Q2 that will almost definitely move to Q3.

Is it possible they could win their conference and make the tournament

 

[RutgHoops]

Betting. Lines. Have. Nothing. To. Do. With. NET.

Say it with me:
“Betting lines have nothing to do with NET”
“Betting lines have nothing to do with NET”

Correct. Margin of victory however does factor. Beating Rider, CCSU, Columbia and Sacred Heart all by 30+ may have given us a bit more of a boost in NET than those wins should. Should beating those teams by 30+ instead of 18 (for example) factor?

 

[fluoxetine]

Every analytic metric says #31 S. Mississippi(8-1) 5-1 vs D1, 3 Non D1 wins) says KenPom 180, BPI 157, Sag 138, T-Rank 148, and KPI 64. Finished 7-26 in 21-22, KP 341, NET #341 get so high?

Rutgers(6-2) #30, KenPom 30, BPI 26, Sag 25, T-Rank 33,:KPI 50.

https://bracketologists.com/team/southern-mississippi-golden-eagles

S.Miss
Q2 2-0 Q4 3-1
+16.5 @ 85 Vanderbilt, W 60-48, +28.5
+11.5 @ 94 Liberty, W 76-72, +15.5
-1 N 224 Winthrop, W 77-52, +24.0
+1.5 N 247 Purdue-FW, W 70-58, +13.5
-9 vs 245 Montana, W 70-60, +1.0
-6 @ 284 Miss. Valley St, L 82-84, -8.0
(+74.5)

How do they end up 1 spot below us.

https://bracketologists.com/team/rutgers-scarlet-knights

Rutgers
Q1-1 Q2 1-0 Q3 0-1 Q4 4-0
-18.5 vs Columbia, W 75-35, +21.5
-21 vs Sacred Heart, W 88-50, +17.0
-13.5 vs UMassL, W 73-65, -5.5
-4.5 N Temple, L 66-72, -10.5
-15.5 vs Rider, W 76-46, +14.5
-26.5 vs CCSU, W 83-49, +7.5
+3 @ Miami, L 61-68, -4
+3.5 vs Indiana, W 63-48, +18.5
(+58.5)

I know it isn't but it is if that makes sense. A lot of teams that are favored by a lot points based on last year's team are indirectly being punished for not living up to what they were last year to overcorrect how computer rankings base their preseason rank off of players stats from last year, additions, subtractions, transfers, and growth from year to year.

Kenpom still is using preseason ratings. NET starts from zero. Betting lines have nothing to do with it.

 

[bac2therac]

Gonna be interesting to see how the committee evaluates MSU come tournament time. Their OOC sos (including 3 losses) is 27 but their NET is 92 right now.

By comparison our OOC sos is 239 with 2 losses, and yet our NET is 30. Seems like the biggest impact so far is our home win over Indy vs the MSU home loss to NW.

Playing a 20-game B1G schedule can really move the needle one way or the other.

Its only Dec 5...thing can change big time. Msu had a similar lagging NET 2 years out

Surprisingly Gonzaga at 29 worse than I thought even with the losses and its good to see the WCC down in the NET to start

 

[bac2therac]

Every analytic metric says #31 S. Mississippi(8-1) 5-1 vs D1, 3 Non D1 wins) says KenPom 180, BPI 157, Sag 138, T-Rank 148, and KPI 64. Finished 7-26 in 21-22, KP 341, NET #341 get so high?

Rutgers(6-2) #30, KenPom 30, BPI 26, Sag 25, T-Rank 33,:KPI 50.

https://bracketologists.com/team/southern-mississippi-golden-eagles

S.Miss
Q2 2-0 Q4 3-1
+16.5 @ 85 Vanderbilt, W 60-48, +28.5
+11.5 @ 94 Liberty, W 76-72, +15.5
-1 N 224 Winthrop, W 77-52, +24.0
+1.5 N 247 Purdue-FW, W 70-58, +13.5
-9 vs 245 Montana, W 70-60, +1.0
-6 @ 284 Miss. Valley St, L 82-84, -8.0
(+74.5)

How do they end up 1 spot below us.

https://bracketologists.com/team/rutgers-scarlet-knights

Rutgers
Q1-1 Q2 1-0 Q3 0-1 Q4 4-0
-18.5 vs Columbia, W 75-35, +21.5
-21 vs Sacred Heart, W 88-50, +17.0
-13.5 vs UMassL, W 73-65, -5.5
-4.5 N Temple, L 66-72, -10.5
-15.5 vs Rider, W 76-46, +14.5
-26.5 vs CCSU, W 83-49, +7.5
+3 @ Miami, L 61-68, -4
+3.5 vs Indiana, W 63-48, +18.5
(+58.5)

I know it isn't but it is if that makes sense. Analytically speaking, doesn't it benefit S. Miss being rated so low and being a double digit underdog and winning by double digits the other way. A lot of teams that are favored by a lot points based on last year's team are indirectly being punished for not living up to what they were last year to overcorrect how computer rankings base their preseason rank off of players stats from last year, additions, subtractions, transfers, and growth from year to year Going into the season all 363 teams don't start at 100 on O and 100 defense.

Last year has nothing to do with the NET

 

[RUChoppin]

Correct. Margin of victory however does factor. Beating Rider, CCSU, Columbia and Sacred Heart all by 30+ may have given us a bit more of a boost in NET than those wins should. Should beating those teams by 30+ instead of 18 (for example) factor?

Pretty sure NET caps the scoring margin at 10 points. So a 30 pt win is no different than an 18 pt win... but a 10 pt win is better than a 9 pt win.

 

[ClassOf02v.2]

The B1G is never down seemingly despite people claiming it will be

Agree but the conference does need to start performing better in March.

 

[RUJMM78]

Imagine, we’re ranked 164th in scoring average but 16th in scoring margin. Defense much?

The 73 points on offense is inflated because of high point totals against mediocre out of conference opponents.Against Temple,Miami and Indiana Rutgers has scored 66,61 and 63 points.

 

[RUChoppin]

Agree but the conference does need to start performing better in March.

Big Ten tends to have a lot of interior play with big bodies that bang in the paint, rather than elite guards who light up the scoreboard from the arc. That's a tough matchup running into a shooting team that gets hot in the tournament - when your monster PF/C is struggling to cover away from the basket.

All the physical play in the conference also sets teams up for struggles at times in the tournament when they suddenly run into a tighter whistle.

 

[ClassOf02v.2]

Big Ten tends to have a lot of interior play with big bodies that bang in the paint, rather than elite guards who light up the scoreboard from the arc. That's a tough matchup running into a shooting team that gets hot in the tournament - when your monster PF/C is struggling to cover away from the basket.

All they physical play in the conference also sets teams up for struggles at times in the tournament when they suddenly run into a tighter whistle.

Well then B1G teams should adjust the way they’re building rosters. The goal is to keep winning, right? Do what it takes to win.

I know it’s easier said than done. I guess it comes down to whether schools want to perform well in their league and play in the postseason or win it all.

 

[goru7]

How about UMASS Lowell at # 53 and at 8-1 with their only loss a respectable 8 point loss to us and blowing out other teams at home and comfortable 10-15 point road wins. Also, Miami being high as well will not hurt us . Temple at # 155 seems too high and wrong and if they continue winning it will rise. Even Rider, Bucknell , Coppin State are not bad in the high 100’s or low 200’s. Our 2 super cupcakes Columbia and Central Connecticut State with Net’s in the 300+ range or Quad 4 wins , we buried by 40 so we did what we had to. So fair to say if we continue playing at least 500 ball in conference and beat Bucknell and Coppin State by at least 15 points each , then our Net will unlikely go down much the rest of the year.
Stunning and surprising to see Wisconsin at #77 and Michigan State at #92 and Michigan at # 114 as they obviously have a lot of work to do or else they will be fighting to stay out of play in game. Nebraska at # 56 is good for us and the strength of conference as only # 227 Minnesota drags the conference down.

Great early start. Now we have a real chance to get this Big 10 title and have to start translating some of this energy at the Rac to the road and pick up some of those victories. Would take a remarkable effort by any Big 10 team to beat us at the RAC this year , so would be really nice to get 4-5 road Big 10 games. Starts Thursday at Ohio State

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

The B1G is never down seemingly despite people claiming it will be

Yep, we are what we are. We don’t have a Blue Blood like Duke or Kentucky or Kansas. However, we are a deep conference with several programs who are built (or building toward the ability) to be successful more years than not. The NC is usually won by teams with multiple 5-stars, but the Big Ten has done quite well over the last 20+ years placing teams in the Final Four, and we’ve had SEVEN programs play for a title.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

#361 Louisville had four Quad 4 losses.

 

[fluoxetine]

Pretty sure NET caps the scoring margin at 10 points. So a 30 pt win is no different than an 18 pt win... but a 10 pt win is better than a 9 pt win.

Back when they used raw MOV it was capped at 10. But now that is gone, and they are only using net efficiency margin which is very correlated with MOV and is not capped.

 

[RUPete]

Bummer about Temple. We need them top 100 to bump that loss to Q2.

Yup. I am a Temple fan now.

 

[BillyC80]

The 73 points on offense is inflated because of high point totals against mediocre out of conference opponents.Against Temple,Miami and Indiana Rutgers has scored 66,61 and 63 points.

Fair point. I will counter, that in our first game of the season with all our starters playing, we had a 15-point margin of victory over the #10 team in the country, holding them to 48 points.

Also , our margin of victory was negatively impacted by those 2 losses where we were not at full strength.

Will be fun to see how things play out from here, but you have to feel good about the potential of our defense giving us a chance to win most games.

 

[bac2therac]

How about UMASS Lowell at # 53 and at 8-1 with their only loss a respectable 8 point loss to us and blowing out other teams at home and comfortable 10-15 point road wins. Also, Miami being high as well will not hurt us . Temple at # 155 seems too high and wrong and if they continue winning it will rise. Even Rider, Bucknell , Coppin State are not bad in the high 100’s or low 200’s. Our 2 super cupcakes Columbia and Central Connecticut State with Net’s in the 300+ range or Quad 4 wins , we buried by 40 so we did what we had to. So fair to say if we continue playing at least 500 ball in conference and beat Bucknell and Coppin State by at least 15 points each , then our Net will unlikely go down much the rest of the year.
Stunning and surprising to see Wisconsin at #77 and Michigan State at #92 and Michigan at # 114 as they obviously have a lot of work to do or else they will be fighting to stay out of play in game. Nebraska at # 56 is good for us and the strength of conference as only # 227 Minnesota drags the conference down.

Great early start. Now we have a real chance to get this Big 10 title and have to start translating some of this energy at the Rac to the road and pick up some of those victories. Would take a remarkable effort by any Big 10 team to beat us at the RAC this year , so would be really nice to get 4-5 road Big 10 games. Starts Thursday at Ohio State

Its way too early..these rankings will change alot and you already slotting schools in the play in games that haven't started their conference schedule

 

[goru7]

Its way too early..these rankings will change alot and you already slotting schools in the play in games that haven't started their conference schedule

If you do not think Michigan has work to do at # 114 then I d not know what to tell you. Conference games have not started and I can almost conclusively conclude Louisville and Florida State will not be making the tourney this year.

 

[REDRICH65]

Very early. Check Back at end of December. I’m not convinced based on one win against teams with a heartbeat

 

[bac2therac]

If you do not think Michigan has work to do at # 114 then I d not know what to tell you. Conference games have not started and I can almost conclusively conclude Louisville and Florida State will not be making the tourney this year.

The rankings with 25% in and almost no conference games for most is not accurate or complete at this point

Its nice to look at for early trends but thats all

 

[bac2therac]

Michigan is 5-3 with a 2 point loss to Virginia, a 4 pt loss to Kentucky, and a loss to Arizona St by double digits

Huh?

 

[goru7]

The rankings with 25% in and almost no conference games for most is not accurate or complete at this point

Its nice to look at for early trends but thats all

Do not disagree that the NET is flawed but I will take our early good start compared to last year’s nightmare that hung over the whole season. Early trends show some of the regular players are in trouble early, which is good for us.

 

[LeapinLou]

Bottom line - better to start at 30 than over 200 last year.

 

[fatsam98]

Michigan is 5-3 with a 2 point loss to Virginia, a 4 pt loss to Kentucky, and a loss to Arizona St by double digits

Huh?

True but they've also only beaten... Pitt

Purdue Ft Wayne
Eastern Michigan
Ohio (in OT)
Jackson State
Pitt (neutral site)

 

[RUPete]

Michigan is 5-3 with a 2 point loss to Virginia, a 4 pt loss to Kentucky, and a loss to Arizona St by double digits

Huh?

The Michigan loss against UK shouldn't count against anything. It was in London with no one watching or caring while England played Senegal in the World Cup. If you lose by four in a foreign country and no one cares, did it really happen?

 

[goru7]

Michigan is 5-3 with a 2 point loss to Virginia, a 4 pt loss to Kentucky, and a loss to Arizona St by double digits

Huh?

The loss to Arizona State was a drubbing as they lost by 25. They only beat Eastern Michigan that power house at home by 5 , had to go OT to beat Ohio and beat Jacksonville State at home by 10. They did beat up a good Pitt team by 30 so that helps them but the Virginia game was at home and Kentucky so far has looked rather pedestrian. I would not be feeling so very comfortable in Ann Arbor.

 

[bac2therac]

Do not disagree that the NET is flawed but I will take our early good start compared to last year’s nightmare that hung over the whole season. Early trends show some of the regular players are in trouble early, which is good for us.

I agree here...its great we are where we are given our earlier schedule had some weaker teams. Blowing them out was huge. Beating Indiana by so much was big. Miami will be a ncaa team

 

[bac2therac]

The loss to Arizona State was a drubbing as they lost by 25. They only beat Eastern Michigan that power house at home by 5 , had to go OT to beat Ohio and beat Jacksonville State at home by 10. They did beat up a good Pitt team by 30 so that helps them but the Virginia game was at home and Kentucky so far has looked rather pedestrian. I would not be feeling so very comfortable in Ann Arbor.

They have a suddenly shaky UNC coming up

A big game for both

 

[RU848789]

Amazing what not losing to a #895 Lafayette does for one's NET...

 

[BillyC80]

Amazing what not losing to a #895 Lafayette does for one's NET...

At home to boot!

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Pretty sure NET caps the scoring margin at 10 points. So a 30 pt win is no different than an 18 pt win... but a 10 pt win is better than a 9 pt win.

Technically, yes. But I thought the NET supposedly incorporates other systems like KenPom into the secret formula which would explain why blowing the snot out of bad teams ends up boosting the NET.

 

[RUPete]

Amazing what not losing to a #895 Lafayette does for one's NET...

You ain’t kidding. Just have to keep avoiding that crap. Bucknell looms on Dec. 23.

 

[bac2therac]

Technically, yes. But I thought the NET supposedly incorporates other systems like KenPom into the secret formula which would explain why blowing the snot out of bad teams ends up boosting the NET.

I dont think so

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

Michigan by only five over a 1-7 Wastern Michigan and by four over Ohio are two anchors dragging down that ranking. Jackson State is a dog too with only one win.

 

[RUChoppin]

Technically, yes. But I thought the NET supposedly incorporates other systems like KenPom into the secret formula which would explain why blowing the snot out of bad teams ends up boosting the NET.

NET does it's own thing separate from the other models. Those models pull in prior year data, which is something NET doesn't do. The old BCS rankings used to do that for football.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I dont think so

I thought efficiency is baked into the NET somehow?

 

[RUChoppin]

From the NCAA site:

"The NET includes more components than just winning percentage. It takes into account game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses."

 

[RUChoppin]

I think the efficiency metrics are where the blowouts start impacting the ranking. If over the course of a full game, you have a high points per possession and hold your opponent to low points per possession, you will end up winning by a lot.

 

[ScarletDave]

Crazy that efficiency matters at all. You can win games but if you take lots of shots and have more #of misses it can sink you. A team wins 60-50 but made 30 baskets on 60 shots is ranked lower than a team wins 60-50 but made 30 baskets on 70 shots. Would be nice to see a ranking of simply: did you win or lose the game, and how many games did the teams you beat win, how many losses did the team you lost to have, etc and let the math play out.