There's absolutely zero downside with Terry. You could give him a 3 year contract at a third of the going rate top contracts with an even more diminimus buyout. This would allow him to nail-down the basis of the 2026 roster and allow him to start trying to salvage what he can of the 2026 recruiting class. If they don't like the direction of the program midway through the contract, they can do their due diligence as to what top names or up-&-comers they want to pursue after the 2nd season so they can move quickly after they make the announcement that their hiring a new coach. Again, zero downside relative to bringing on a $10 - $12 million coach with a massive multi-year guarantee and literally no playing roster for 2026 - this type of hire has very little chance of succeeding in the current "win now" environment because of how long, if ever, it will take them to gain traction. They will have no hope in 2026 and this will make it very difficult for them to recruit or bring in elite NIL players (who are looking to succeed immediately so they will attract attention for the NFL) in 2027.... rinse-&-repeat 2028.... etc...
In essence, you'd pay someone else 3x more with a massive long-term guarantee, who has a no chance in 2026 (Smith has a way, way, way better chance of salvaging 2026 if you put him in a position to go to work to stabilize and rebuild the roster - at a third the salary and no huge overhanging long-term guarantee if it's determined another switch needs to be made. People ignore that Smith has this team playing better-&-better week over week. There's no saying that Smith doesn't make it to a bowl, win there.... solidify the 2026 roster and carry some momentum into 2026.).
Given the amount of $$$ and long-term guarantee you're going to have to pay a new "name" coach to bring them over and they are going have zero shot in 2026 and a bigger risk to do worse than Terry Smith over next couple years at 3x the cost WITH a massive long-term guarantee that may not be mitigated once they fail at PSU.
People have harped and harped that Smith has no NCAA head coaching experience - guess what, Ryan Day, Sherrone Moore, Brent Key and many other now successful P4 coaches had ZERO Collegiate head coaching experience at any level before being promoted to HC from a top assistant coach position.