Ole Miss CFP odds

[anon1758050382]

The football gods come down and tell you the following:

Ole Miss finishes 10-2 with losses to 10-2 Georgia and 7-5 Kentucky.

Does 10-2 Ole Miss make the CFP?

 

[Howiefeltersnstch]

Oklahoma and LSU will probly beat them. 8 and 4 won't get it. I'm thinking at best they will finish 9 and 3. Could be 7 and 5. Lebby gonna have a hell of a gameplay for Lane you can bet on that.

 

[johnson86-1]

The football gods come down and tell you the following:

Ole Miss finishes 10-2 with losses to 10-2 Georgia and 7-5 Kentucky.

Does 10-2 Ole Miss make the CFP?

I think they make it at 10-2. Just don’t see a 10-2SEc team finishing outside of the top ten unless LSU annd Oklahoma tank and leave them with no good wins.

You’re likely going to have Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee ahead of them. That leaves at most room for two sec schools (assuming they allow the sec 4 at large bids and the big 10 3 at large bids). You presumably have one miss missouri, lsu, Oklahoma, maybe USCe. Which one of those is finishing 10-2 of Ole Miss beats lsu and Oklahoma?

That said, I’d put my money at 9-3. Would have said 10-2 before the season to give them room to slip up against LSU or Oklahoma or possibly A&M. 9-3 would still be a good coaching job by Kane from here on out.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

10-2 with a UGA loss they make it. 9-3 they don't. 10-2 with a loss to the corndogs or Oklahomo, it's iffy, but the would mean they beat UGA, so the probably make it.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

Ole Miss will finish 9-3 maybe 8-4 unless we see a totally different team that we saw last Saturday vs. UK which is the only game they have played against a team with a pulse.
Every team in the SEC that wins 10 in the regular season should make the playoff.
It will be difficult for more than 4 to get to 10 wins. Georgia has a tough path to win 10.
The most likely SEC teams to make the playoff to me currently are Texas, Tennessee, & Alabama with a 4th spot going to either Missouri or Georgia. There is still also path for Ole Miss & LSU maybe even A & M but these teams will have to eliminate others to get there.

 

[GloryDawg]

Depend on a few things. How many SEC teams have 10 wins. Notre Dame is the wild card. If they run the table, they are in. Then one G4 team. Don't know if a 10-2 SEC team with weak schedule and loss to KY gets in. It's not guarantee they get in with 10 wins.

 

[POTUS]

Because I'm a good sixpacker I always assume the worst. So of course they make it.

 

[dickiedawg]

You’re likely going to have Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee ahead of them. That leaves at most room for two sec schools (assuming they allow the sec 4 at large bids and the big 10 3 at large bids). You presumably have one miss missouri, lsu, Oklahoma, maybe USCe. Which one of those is finishing 10-2 of Ole Miss beats lsu and Oklahoma?

Did you forget Texas? I think assuming the SEC gets 5 bids is asking a lot. Not saying it wouldn’t deserve 5 teams, and I’m not saying it won’t happen, but I wouldn’t like to be banking my hopes on that 5th bid.

10-2 with a UGA loss they make it. 9-3 they don't. 10-2 with a loss to the corndogs or Oklahomo, it's iffy, but the would mean they beat UGA, so the probably make it.

I think they’d be much better off with a win over Georgia and a loss to LSU or Oklahoma. Your best win could be 9-3 LSU, or possibly even 8-4 LSU or Oklahoma.
If they beat Georgia, they might actually take Georgia’s spot. Georgia still has games against Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee, 2 of those on the road. They have hardly any margin for error, which is insane. They kind of got the shaft, schedule wise.
There’s theoretically a world in which 9-3 UGA makes it over 10-2 Ole Miss. That would probably be a scenario where 5 SEC schools get bids though.

 

[patdog]

Depend on a few things. How many SEC teams have 10 wins. Notre Dame is the wild card. If they run the table, they are in. Then one G4 team. Don't know if a 10-2 SEC team with weak schedule and loss to KY gets in. It's not guarantee they get in with 10 wins.

I'm not sure even an 11-1 Notre Dame with only 3 ranked wins (no top 10 teams played) and the worst loss of any team in contention gets in. As much as we complain about Mississippi's weak schedule, Notre Dame's is weaker. But right now, Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee are all looking real good to get a bid, and Missouri is ahead of Mississippi for a 5th bid if the SEC gets that many.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Oklahoma and LSU will probly beat them. 8 and 4 won't get it. I'm thinking at best they will finish 9 and 3. Could be 7 and 5. Lebby gonna have a hell of a gameplay for Lane you can bet on that.

I hope they lose every game but I don't think LSU and Ok will both beat them.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

I'm not sure even an 11-1 Notre Dame with only 3 ranked wins (no top 10 teams played) and the worst loss of any team in contention gets in. As much as we complain about Mississippi's weak schedule, Notre Dame's is weaker. But right now, Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee are all looking real good to get a bid, and Missouri is ahead of Mississippi for a 5th bid if the SEC gets that many.

There is not one chance in Lucifer's domain that 11-1 Notre Dame gets left out of the Playoff.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Stolen bids are going to hurt them. The Big 12 and G5 neither have a team in the Top 12 but both are guaranteed auto bids.

The other thing is that there are currently 5 SEC teams ahead of OM in the polls and another one spot behind them. If they finish as the 6th or 7th SEC team, they’re not getting in. Heck they may need to be in the Top 4 of the SEC. If you went by today’s AP poll, Mizzou would be one of the last two teams in, and they’re up at 9th. Whoever finishes 5th in the SEC is going to be very borderline.

 

[Dawgg]

I'm not sure even an 11-1 Notre Dame with only 3 ranked wins (no top 10 teams played) and the worst loss of any team in contention gets in. As much as we complain about Mississippi's weak schedule, Notre Dame's is weaker. But right now, Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee are all looking real good to get a bid, and Missouri is ahead of Mississippi for a 5th bid if the SEC gets that many.

Notre Dame gets in over Ole Miss just like they got in over Texas A&M, an objectively bigger brand than Ole Miss, in 2020.

 

[o_HuntDawg]

10-2 means they got 6-2 in the SEC

UGA/Ole Miss tie-breaker will be decided on the field.. as would a LSU/Ole Miss tie-breaker.

They would not get in over a 10-2 Alabama now that Alabama has beaten UGA. They would not get in over a 10-2 texas.

The SEC will get 4 for sure (maybe 5). The only two teams that can really feel good about where they are, are Texas and Alabama. Both those teams have big wins already, both are undefeated, and both will be in the playoffs going 10-2.

 

[Howiefeltersnstch]

I hope they lose every game but I don't think LSU and Ok will both beat them.

Wouldn't them losing every game the rest of the way be glorious ???

 

[OG Goat Holder]

They'll get to 9-3 and will barely miss it.

Don't get me wrong, they have a good team, and they'll wake up. I think they'll beat SC, lose to LSU, then vs. Georgia will be for all the marbles, and they'll choke Eli Manning style.

Then Lane goes to Florida, and we end up bea.........nevermind. If we had a real coach, that may happen.

 

[MStateDawg]

I dont think the committee will put 5 SEC teams into a 12 team playoff. That would mean that 4 of the 7 at-large bids go to SEC teams. Thus even at 10-2, I think it'll depend on how the other SEC hopefuls do.

My guess: Bama, Georgia, Texas & Tennessee get in while Ole Miss & Missouri are left out.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

Stolen bids are going to hurt them. The Big 12 and G5 neither have a team in the Top 12 but both are guaranteed auto bids.

The other thing is that there are currently 5 SEC teams ahead of OM in the polls and another one spot behind them. If they finish as the 6th or 7th SEC team, they’re not getting in. Heck they may need to be in the Top 4 of the SEC. If you went by today’s AP poll, Mizzou would be one of the last two teams in, and they’re up at 9th. Whoever finishes 5th in the SEC is going to be very borderline.

Missouri has a couple of issues. They very likely will not have a quality win and they could easily lose to A&M this weekend.
Missouri has to go 11-1 to make it because at 10-2 with losses to Bama and A&M - they aren't impressing anyone with P4 wins over BC (without their QB), Vandy, Auburn, Oklahoma, USCE, MSU, & UPIG.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I think the most likely outcome is:

4 SEC
3 Big 10
1 ACC
1 Big 12
1 G5

And then two spots that are anyone’s guess. I think 5 is the max amount of SEC teams you’d see, and it may only be 4.

 

[o_HuntDawg]

I think the most likely outcome is:

4 SEC
3 Big 10
1 ACC
1 Big 12
1 G5

And then two spots that are anyone’s guess. I think 5 is the max amount of SEC teams you’d see, and it may only be 4.

This for sure.

And there really is too much football left to even guess how the rest will play out.

 

[patdog]

I think the most likely outcome is:

4 SEC - at least 4, probably 5
3 Big 10 - 3 for sure, probably 4
1 ACC - possible 2nd bid for Notre Dame - doubt ACCCG loser could get a bid.
1 Big 12
1 G5

And then two spots that are anyone’s guess. I think 5 is the max amount of SEC teams you’d see, and it may only be 4.

My comments. One big hurdle to any conference other than SEC or Big 10 getting multiple bids is, their championship game loser by definition picks up another loss. So only way would be if a team went 12-0, then lost. Even then, it's doubtful.

 

[o_HuntDawg]

Missouri has a couple of issues. They very likely will not have a quality win and they could easily lose to A&M this weekend.
Missouri has to go 11-1 to make it because at 10-2 with losses to Bama and A&M - they aren't impressing anyone with P4 wins over BC (without their QB), Vandy, Auburn, Oklahoma, USCE, MSU, & UPIG.

I agree with this. Mizzou will need to go 11-1 most likely... but it'll be another SEC team taking their spot if they get left out, not some other conference.

But again if you look at everyones schedules it really hard to figure out how its going to finish.
UGA- has at Texas, at Ole Miss, Tennessee-- they have to win 2 of these
Tenn- has both Alabama and Georgia left
LSU- already has 1 loss and has 4 ranked teams left to play
OM- already has 1 loss and 3 ranked teams left to play.

Again to me, the only teams that can feel good about where they are at, are Alabama and Texas. Both those schools will get in with 2 losses.. and both have schedules where its hard to see them losing more than 2.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

My comments. One big hurdle to any conference other than SEC or Big 10 getting multiple bids is, their championship game loser by definition picks up another loss. So only way would be if a team went 12-0, then lost. Even then, it's doubtful.

The one exception I’d make to this is Clemson-Miami potentially. If the ACC championship is 11-1 vs 11-1 or 12-0 vs 11-1 I think both stand a very good chance of getting in. And the schedule sets up pretty well for both.

The Big 12 is gonna have more issues I think. Their current highest ranked teams are Iowa State and BYU at 16 and 17.

 

[o_HuntDawg]

My comments. One big hurdle to any conference other than SEC or Big 10 getting multiple bids is, their championship game loser by definition picks up another loss. So only way would be if a team went 12-0, then lost. Even then, it's doubtful.

I think the Big 10 getting 4 is a long shot.

Currently they only have 4 teams inside the top 10. One of them being michigan. Michigan still has to play Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State.

Michigan with 1 loss already and Indiana playing an awful schedule. For them to get 4 of those teams inside the top 10 is going to be a big big ask. It would take an upset in the championship game almost.

 

[o_HuntDawg]

The one exception I’d make to this is Clemson-Miami potentially. If the ACC championship is 11-1 vs 11-1 or 12-0 vs 11-1 I think both stand a very good chance of getting in. And the schedule sets up pretty well for both.

The Big 12 is gonna have more issues I think. Their current highest ranked teams are Iowa State and BYU at 16 and 17.

Big 12 is a one bid league without a doubt.

Agree MIami, Notre Dame, Clemson--- are teams that could all get in. However 2 loss ND and 2 loss Clemson I think both miss out barring a championship.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

I agree with this. Mizzou will need to go 11-1 most likely... but it'll be another SEC team taking their spot if they get left out, not some other conference.

But again if you look at everyones schedules it really hard to figure out how its going to finish.
UGA- has at Texas, at Ole Miss, Tennessee-- they have to win 2 of these
Tenn- has both Alabama and Georgia left
LSU- already has 1 loss and has 4 ranked teams left to play
OM- already has 1 loss and 3 ranked teams left to play.

Again to me, the only teams that can feel good about where they are at, are Alabama and Texas. Both those schools will get in with 2 losses.. and both have schedules where its hard to see them losing more than 2.

I think Tennessee can feel pretty good also. They are in at 10-2 with losses to Georgia & Alabama.
The ACC is probably getting 2 in the CFP probably Miami & Clemson, Big 12 gets 1, G5 gets 1, & Notre Dame which leaves 7 total for the SEC & Big 10. This is going to be awesome to watch.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Big 12 is a one bid league without a doubt.

Agree MIami, Notre Dame, Clemson--- are teams that could all get in. However 2 loss ND and 2 loss Clemson I think both miss out barring a championship.

Yeah I think the ACC’s best chance for two bids is Miami going 11-1 or 12-0 and losing in the league title game. If a one loss Miami wins the league, getting two teams in may be tough.

Clemson has looked very good recently but can’t help but feel like that blowout loss to Georgia is going to be a problem for them.

 

[patdog]

I think the Big 10 getting 4 is a long shot.

Currently they only have 4 teams inside the top 10. One of them being michigan. Michigan still has to play Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State.

Michigan with 1 loss already and Indiana playing an awful schedule. For them to get 4 of those teams inside the top 10 is going to be a big big ask. It would take an upset in the championship game almost.

4 teams in top 10, plus #11 USC. Plus I think the committee is going to give Big 10 3 at-large bids before they give the SEC 5 if there's any way at all they can justify it. - Agree about Indiana. Their only chance is to go 11-1, and they won't go that.

 

[o_HuntDawg]

Yeah I think the ACC’s best chance for two bids is Miami going 11-1 or 12-0 and losing in the league title game. If a one loss Miami wins the league, getting two teams in may be tough.

Clemson has looked very good recently but can’t help but feel like that blowout loss to Georgia is going to be a problem for them.

agreed. Thats the only real way the ACC would get 2. A undefeated Miami team thats ranked in the top 5 vs a 1 loss clemson team ranked around 10.. and then have clemson win the game.

ND will have to play USC last week of the year.. that game will likely be a play in game for ND. A loss and them being 10-2, they'll likely miss out.

 

[o_HuntDawg]

I think Tennessee can feel pretty good also. They are in at 10-2 with losses to Georgia & Alabama.
The ACC is probably getting 2 in the CFP probably Miami & Clemson, Big 12 gets 1, G5 gets 1, & Notre Dame which leaves 7 total for the SEC & Big 10. This is going to be awesome to watch.

I think the odds of the ACC getting 1, are bigger than them getting 2.

Tenn needs a marquee win. They lose to UGA and Alabama. And their best win is at Oklahoma, things could go sideways for them. Very possible if thats the case that UGA, Alabama, and texas are all for sure in.... You'd have Tenn along with a few others being 10-2 and you'd be comparing resumes.

 

[anon1758050382]

Don't count out a G5 team like Boise State getting a top-4 seed over the Big 12 champ.

Possible scenario:

1-Texas
2-Ohio State
3-Miami
4-Boise State
—
5-Alabama
6-Tennessee
7-Georgia
8-Oregon
9-Penn State
10-Notre Dame
11-Ole Miss
12-Iowa State

 

[o_HuntDawg]

4 teams in top 10, plus #11 USC. Plus I think the committee is going to give Big 10 3 at-large bids before they give the SEC 5 if there's any way at all they can justify it. - Agree about Indiana. Their only chance is to go 11-1, and they won't go that.

I think if it comes down to an SEC 5th and a Big10 4th.. a lot will come down to brands if the resumes are similar.

 

[GloryDawg]

The ACC and Big 12 will get two in. You can bank that. When the committee gets involved, you will see several of the Big 12 and ACC move up close to or in the top 12. These coaches and AP polls are meaningless. They are just talking points at this time.

 

[o_HuntDawg]

Don't count out a G5 team like Boise State getting a top-4 seed over the Big 12 champ.

Possible scenario:

1-Texas
2-Ohio State
3-Miami
4-Boise State
—
5-Alabama
6-Tennessee
7-Georgia
8-Oregon
9-Penn State
10-Notre Dame
11-Ole Miss
12-Iowa State

i would give that less than a 2% chance of happening.

a 9-3 big12 champ... is still going to be ranked ahead of boise. It would take one of those weird upsets and they way the big12 did their schedule that seems unlikely. Someone out of that group is going to come out with 9 or 10 wins and they'll be a solid 4th conference champ over any G5 team.

 

[anon1758050382]

The ACC and Big 12 will get two in. You can bank that. When the committee gets involved, you will see several of the Big 12 and ACC move up close to or in the top 12. These coaches and AP polls are meaningless. They are just talking points at this time.

I can see the ACC getting two in: Miami and Clemson with 10+ wins, for example.

But I don't see the Big 12 getting two in. Iowa State and BYU are currently the top candidates. Those two teams could meet in the conference championship game with 2 or 3 losses each.

 

[o_HuntDawg]

The ACC and Big 12 will get two in. You can bank that. When the committee gets involved, you will see several of the Big 12 and ACC move up close to or in the top 12. These coaches and AP polls are meaningless. They are just talking points at this time.

i'll take that bet. For whatever you want to bet.

No way there are 2 of each of those.

 

[Seinfeld]

All I can say is that if a 10-2 OM team makes the CFP with this weak *** schedule, it should give all State fans hope for the future

 

[o_HuntDawg]

All I can say is that if a 10-2 OM team makes the CFP with this weak *** schedule, it should give all State fans hope for the future

Mizzou's schedule is worse.

If ole miss wins @ South Carolina, @ LSU, beats whats proven to be a solid Oklahoma team, and wins @ whats proven to be a better than expected Arkansas team..... and finishes 10-2 i think they warrant being in the conversation.

any sec team that goes 10-2 and 6-2, deserves heavy consideration... go check out the ACC and Big12 conference schedules. They are pathetic, much worse than any SEC school will play.

 

[mcdawg22]

I wouldn’t sharpie in Ole Miss beating Arkansas. That game is always bonkers.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

They'll get to 9-3 and will barely miss it.

Don't get me wrong, they have a good team, and they'll wake up. I think they'll beat SC, lose to LSU, then vs. Georgia will be for all the marbles, and they'll choke Eli Manning style.

Then Lane goes to Florida, and we end up bea.........nevermind. If we had a real coach, that may happen.

As banged up as they are right now they could go and lose this weekend to South Carolina. I think they’ll win but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.