Ole Miss is a bowl team

[615dawg]

They will beat Auburn and Arkansas, and will beat Vandy to 6 wins. Their game against Texas A&M could be WVU-Bayloresque. Georgia just has too much muscle for them.

LSU and Mississippi State fans better stop thinking they will be a pushover. They'll get one of those.

 

[Spanky.sixpack]

Freak out much?

The schedule is a grind, and it will eventually get to them. Texas A&M will beat them next weekend. Auburn is a key game for them, they should be fired back up for that one. Unfortunately Arkansas is on the road, but they may can take that one. They won't win at Georgia. Vanderbilt is a likely win in Oxford. LSU and MSU are toss ups depending on where they slip up.

They really need to swap that probably loss in TAM at home with the winnable game at Arkansas. I see them at 5 wins, and one may be MSU. There isn't a sure win on the schedule.

 

[hotdigitydog]

They will not beat Auburn, Arkansas and Vandy all three........Won't happen.....

NT

 

[QuaoarsKing]

If they beat Texas A&M, yes. If not, no.

 

[InaccuratePredictionsDawg]

As MuttTheHoople would say...

..."oh no, OM is a bowl team; now my life has lost all meaning." Who gives a crap if OM is a bowl team?

 

[shsdawg]

If they beat A&M they might be. I don't see that happening though. Johnny Football will hang a bunch of points on them. I think if the Arky game was in Oxford they would win that one. With it being over there it will be tougher but I still think they win it. The Vandy game is a toss up. They have a shot at Aubie in Oxford but I think Auburn wins it. They are better than most think. Georgia and LSU they have no chance in. With our game with them being in Oxford it will be tougher than it should be. If we come out flat for some reason they might take us, but I don't think that's likely. I think they probably get one or two more wins.

 

[00Dawg]

I'm not seeing 6 wins. Although I do agree those three are their best chances, Auburn will be just as motivated. They've got 4 "should-wins" of their own, so the UM game is the swing one for them to get to 6.
Who knows if Arkansas will even show up by that point, so UM should have a good shot there. If Vandy can find a way to beat Mizzou, they'll be up for their visit to Oxford.

Personally, I expect TAMU to put 40+ on them and win going away. After that, a loss to Auburn should put pressure on Freeze to gameplan a win at Little Rock. If he can manage that and find a way to beat Vandy, the Egg Bowl becomes a dogfight.

 

[Coach34]

I dont think they can beat Auburn...the grind has started...they are improved and playing hard though for sure

we'll see

 

[615dawg]

Auburn doesn't have a offense at all and has an average defense. Ole Miss will score at least 21 on Auburn and Auburn has only scored that many against one team - ULM.

Arkansas has quit. Let me remind you about a 2-10 MSU team that had a lot of talent but quit in 2003. Arkansas will not win an SEC team.

I would agree that Vandy is the best of those three, and they are 1-3 with a couple of ugly losses.

I personally think that Ole Miss gets those three. I also think that Georgia will overpower them and they have no chance to win that game in Athens.

Texas A&M will be a shootout that they could win, and State and LSU are better but not invincible. I think they end up 6-6 with a shot at 7-5. Sorry if my thinking Ole Miss can beat some really bad teams hurts your feelings.

 

[JackShephard]

Good luck. I was saying this before the season and I got blasted.

 

[DovaDawg]

Church was funny this morning. Ole Miss Alum said that Bama struggled with the Bears. I replied I don't know that struggled is the right word. For 90% if the game there was no doubt that Bama was going to win and if that was struggling, I would take that the rest of the year. He said he would like to see State do any better. I told him last year we only lost to Bama by 17, last night they lost by 19.

I fear the Egg Bowl is going to be for The Bear's 6th win and is going to be a brawl. They will beat Vandy and Arkansas.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

If they don't make a bowl it won't be for a lack of effort but the lack of depth they have.

They are really playing hard, you have to give them credit for that. They have bought into Freeze completely.

The SEC season is a long one though and their lack of depth will probably have them limping just under .500 at the end of the season.

 

[patdog]

I agree. Freeze is doing a good job up there and they're definitely improved. But Auburn is a lot better than people are giving them credit for. Mississippi will lose that one. I think they've got a real good shot against both Arkansas and Vandy though, which is more than I expected from them at the beginning of the season.

 

[Optimus Prime 4]

20% chance. 70% chance of 5-7, 10% of 4-8

at least that's how my tea leaves look today.

 

[johnson86-1]

They're possibly a bowl team.

The reality is we still don't know about a lot of teams, including UM and state.

I think we know that UGA is too strong for UM.

I think we know that however good A&M is, their offense is going to put up too many points for UM to match (assuming their qb stays healthy).

I would assume LSU has too much talent to lose to UM even though they're not really showing it right now.


After that, while we know that Auburn and Arkansas probably have more talent than UM, if Arkansas gives up (keeps giving up?) I would think UM will win, but otherwise Arkansas will. Auburn has more talent than UM but has such a weakness at qb, they'll need to come out and steam roll them on the ground. I think UM will be able to score on them, so that should be a toss up. I haven't seen Vandy play, but I assume that's roughly a toss-up.

I still expect State to beat UM, but it's definitely possible that the team that played Troy and USA is the real State, and that Auburn is actually as bad or worse than those two and only played LSU close because LSU is playing terrible. I'm hoping keeping it close against LSU and Clemson is an indication that they are pretty decent.

Let's say 3 almost sure losses, 3 toss-ups and a game in which they will be a slight underdog. If Arkansas implodes (seems likely) and Auburn implodes (seems plausible), all the sudden they only have to come up big in one toss-up game and/or their rivalry game to go bowling.

 

[patdog]

The reason they don't make a bowl could very well be Pete Boone. Scheduling Texas was a huge mistake. They could really use an extra spring practice in December and they might fall 1 win short of it. Bjork is doing the right thing. He's already gotten them out of the Clemson series and I'd put the odds of the GA Tech series happening at 50-50 at best.

 

[615dawg]

You are dead wrong.

Ole Miss will beat Auburn at home. Auburn sucks hard on offense and will not be able to score enough points even if they hold you to 21.
Ole Miss will beat Vandy at home. Vandy is garbage. James Franklin will go down as a one hit wonder.
Ole Miss will win at Arkansas (although this is one the Pigs' best chances at winning an SEC game.If Auburn beats them this week in Fayetteville, they are completely done.)
Those three get you 6 wins.

Ole Miss has a chance to win a shootout with Johnny Football and A&M next week, at home.
Ole Miss has a chance to upset LSU or State at the end of the season.

Ole Miss will not win in Athens.

100% chance they get to 6 wins and go to a bowl. It might be Birmingham, but you will go to a bowl.

 

[Koldfire]

I think UM will win 6 & Freeze will be SEC coach of the year.

 

[57stratdawg]

Yep. If they played our OOC they'd probably win 6 games and basically replicate our 2011 season. Oh well.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

100%? You serious?


Let's be generous to Ole Miss and give them these probabilities of winning games:
80% Vandy
75% Auburn
70% Arkansas
50% Texas A&M
40% Mississippi State
25% LSU


I think we can all agree that all 6 of those are overestimations, but I've adjusted up in case I have maroon blinders on.
Under those probabilities, the chances of Ole Miss going:
9-3 1.68%
8-4 12.62%
7-5 30.93%
6-6 33.33%
5-7 17.03%
4-8 4.05%
3-9 0.36%
For a 78.56% chance of making a bowl.




More realistic probabilities:
66.7% Vandy
66.7% Auburn
60% Arkansas
40% Texas A&M
33.3% Mississippi State
15% LSU


9-3 0.53%
8-4 5.78%
7-5 20.81%
6-6 33.93%
5-7 27.09%
4-8 10.34%
3-9 1.51%
Or 61.06% of making a bowl.

 

[615dawg]

I like your style, but here's how I look at it.

They need 3.

They are more than likely going to get 2 of the following three (Auburn, Vandy, at Arkansas). Even using your "more realistic probabilities," they have a 50-50 shot at getting 2 of those. If they get 3, they are 100% going to a bowl and the rest is moot.

If they were to drop one of those games in which you give a better than 50-50 chance of getting each of them, then they need to pick up 1 of the following, in order of probability of winning:
at home against Texas A&M. Again, probably going to be a Georgia-Tennessee like shootout. I wouldn't touch betting on this game with a ten foot pole.
at home against Mississippi State. Look, this is going to be a tough Egg Bowl. Want to make it tougher? Go in 8-3 or 9-2 facing a 5-6 Ole Miss team.
on the road at LSU. They always play LSU tough, and LSU has shown the last two weeks that there may be some major issues. By the time the game rolls around, LSU could have 3 or 4 losses. Or they could be undefeated. Crazy.
on the road at Georgia. No chance.

 

[DAWG61]

No way 6-6 Freeze gets COY over a 10-2 Mullen

 

[HammerOfTheDogs]

I see them some day contending for a Division 1-AA or Division II title.

 

[DogOfWest]

Look this ole Miss *** kissing is ridiculous. They would have needed 3 Tds to beat a Bama team that was as flat and vanilla as they have been in the last 4 years. It was obvious that Bama had zero excitement abut beating up on a poor over matched Ole Miss team. UM is 100% hype and Freeze has proved nothing accept he can beat Utep and Tulane. Ole Miss will not win another conference game and I feel strongly about that. Vandy, Auburn, and Arkansas will all expose their small, no depth defense that couldn't stop Chris Rainey. You guys just sit back and watch as the wheels come off again in Oxford.

 

[thunderclap]

The proclamations about OMU are astounding...

they played their best game last night. It is also their first SEC game. They still have no depth and are still undersized. They are seemingly better, but to declare them a bowl team and award them 3 SEC wins based on last night's 3 TD loss to a fairly uninterested Bama team is crazy.

 

[was21]

Hell, I think they may end up being the dark horse of the SEC. If things fall just right, they may take it all.

 

[Corch42]

I don't think it's likely Freeze wins COY.

But I don't think Mullen will, either. IF State wins 10 there will be a lot of "they didn't play anyone" talk (not saying i agree with that statement, but it will come up). Plus, Mullen has a few media members who aren't his biggest fan.

 

[gravedigger]

There may come a day when I can titties read your posts and give them some thought, but until you change that avatar, my titties mind is jello.

DO NOT change your titties...avatar.

 

[MedDawg]

OM had 70 and 75-yard drives for TD's but otherwise never crossed the 50.

 

[Palos verdes]

I think Ole miss will get blasted against A&M.

I think the Aggies will put more offensive pressure on them than Bama did.

 

[Negative Waves]

Alabama 23, UM 10. Has everybody forgotten that game in 2010? Ole Miss ended up 4-8. This year's Bama squad reminds me more of the 2010 team than the 09 and 11 teams. Ole Miss is playing better than last year, but to say they're bowl eligible might be stretching it. Wallace is a turnover machine; put a little pressure on him, and he throws it to a defender. However, Wilson will probably run his zone prevent defense against them in the Egg Bowl, and he'll have a career night.

 

[onewoof]

I'll take that bet. They will battle out Vandy for their ONLY SEC win this year and I am 50/50 they will lose that one.

 

[GristlingDixie]

OM had 70 and 75-yard drives for TD's but otherwise never crossed the 50.

That's right. If you just take out all of the Bears good stats, they didn't look very good at all.

 

[Resolved]

Agree. They're playing hard the whole game. UM buddy said it best "We're two years away from being mediocre".

 

[MedDawg]

A 3 TD loss when OM was never close to a 3rd TD, much less a 4th and a 5th. It's not a stat thing.

Now, those two drives were good, sustained drives, not from some lucky-missed-tackle long play, but it's not like OM made a close game of it. When Bama made it 20-7 mid-2nd quarter, it was over.

 

[MedDawg]

OM may take advantage of a much weaker Ark, Aub, and Vandy, but that doesn't mean that Freeze is some great coach. If the SEC this year was at 2011 strength, then OM would only win 3 games this season.

Of course, State needs to take advantage of a weaker Arkansas, too, but if 2012 Auburn and Arkansas are as bad as they look right now, beating them won't mean much for Mullen's coaching ability either.

 

[LiterallyPolice]

Numbers?! Your jib. The cut. I like it.

 

[thekimmer]

Maybe this bowl......