One thing the playoff has changed from years past...
- Thread starter Xenomorph
- Start date
Biggest difference to me is looking at the entire body of work.
Used to be, "if you lose, lose early". A late loss and you would drop out of sight.
Used to be, "if you lose, lose early". A late loss and you would drop out of sight.
I think we'll be fine if we get up 3 TDs and coast to a 38-17 win. What would hurt us would be if we were tied at 17 going into the 4th and scored 3 TDs to win it 38-17. This game needs to be over by mid-3rd quarter at the latest, preferably by halftime.
I still think we have the 'conference champion' BS coming to rue our day... They are laying the groundwork for it right now. I see absolutely ZERO way that Ohio State does not make it above us if they, Oregon, Alabama and FSU win out. And, that would be absurd. Everyone just wants to talk about how they had one bad loss early in JT Barrett's first real game. Uh, they went to OT with freaking Penn State like 3 weeks ago.
We need a blowout, I just hope Mullen let's it happen.
I have a feeling we won't get it and this will really hurt us in the CFP rankings come next week.
I have a feeling we won't get it and this will really hurt us in the CFP rankings come next week.
I'm also worried about the conference championship criteria that no one seems to be talking about yet. We won't see how much it will weigh into their decision until Dec. 7, but it is listed with their rating criteria right along with record, SOS, head to head, and common opponents.
This is what I'm worried about. It's been said that the committee apparently puts a lot of weight on conference championships, and I'm afraid that Ohio State would jump us if they win the Big 10 or maybe TCU or Baylor jump us if they win the Big 12 outright. Really, really, really need Ohio State to lose to Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game and TCU to lose to Texas on Thanksgiving. FSU losing would be nice too, but I don't see that happening.
I think you have it backwards. "Style points" were something you needed to impress the pollsters under the old system. This committee has enough old school type coaches and ADs that they understand just winning. I mean, we don't know for sure, but I think FSU is getting dinged more for its weak schedule and its poor numbers in the "game control" metric, meaning that they keep falling behind and have to pull games out of their *** against weak competition.
I really don't think score differential matters much. We need to control the game, and be up by 2 or 3 scores as early as possible, but we don't have to keep scoring to get style points.
I really don't think score differential matters much. We need to control the game, and be up by 2 or 3 scores as early as possible, but we don't have to keep scoring to get style points.
I'm more worried about what happens if TCU wins out than if Baylor or Ohio State wins out. I think if TCU wins out, even if we do as well, they'll jump us for the fourth spot.
I'm not sure about that. The committee is proving to be as advertised...
They are following the ideology put forth that they want to select the best 4 teams, regardless of conferences, etc.
One thing to note.. The folks on that committee are serious people with serious jobs. I doubt they have much time every day to sit around and listen to what people at ESPN are saying about their picks.
Win 2 games and look good doing it --> We're in.
Win 2 games but struggle --> Depends on what everybody else does.
Lose 1 --> Sayanora
I'll also add... If you believe politics and personal feelings will play a big part of their rankings then realize this: Several members of that committee probably have some pretty old scores to settle with the Big 10 and/or Ohio State in particular. How do you think it would go over telling the former commissioner of the Big East that the Big 10 is so important that their champion should be included regardless of anyone else's accomplishments? Think that would stick in his craw?
They are following the ideology put forth that they want to select the best 4 teams, regardless of conferences, etc.
One thing to note.. The folks on that committee are serious people with serious jobs. I doubt they have much time every day to sit around and listen to what people at ESPN are saying about their picks.
Win 2 games and look good doing it --> We're in.
Win 2 games but struggle --> Depends on what everybody else does.
Lose 1 --> Sayanora
I'll also add... If you believe politics and personal feelings will play a big part of their rankings then realize this: Several members of that committee probably have some pretty old scores to settle with the Big 10 and/or Ohio State in particular. How do you think it would go over telling the former commissioner of the Big East that the Big 10 is so important that their champion should be included regardless of anyone else's accomplishments? Think that would stick in his craw?
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I think we only have to worry about Ohio State. I agree, we don't know how much weight the committee will place on being a conference champion. It is a factor they are supposed to consider, but each member will give it the weight they think it deserves. If FSU, Oregon and Alabama all win out, then they will all be conference champions. That leaves us competing with OSU, TCU and Baylor for that last spot. Since the Big 12 does not have a championship game, TCU and Baylor will tie for the Big 12 Championship. We will basically be in the same position as them, having tied for the SEC-West title, with our only loss being to the conference champ.....I like our chances against agains the Big 12 Champ.
OSU is a different story...if they win the BIG Championship game, then they will have a conference championship, some quality wins, and that extra game. I think there is a real danger OSU would be moved into the #4 slot, and I wouldn't blame the committee one bit.
On Wisconsin!
OSU is a different story...if they win the BIG Championship game, then they will have a conference championship, some quality wins, and that extra game. I think there is a real danger OSU would be moved into the #4 slot, and I wouldn't blame the committee one bit.
On Wisconsin!
And I'm telling you again, you're putting WAY too much emphasis on what is only one of many criteria they are using. You're just looking for things to worry about. Relax. Ohio St. won't be in the playoff unless there is a lot of carnage among the top 4 teams between now and the end of the season.
Where has this been said by anyone who would know, as opposed to pure speculation? It's just one factor they will consider. OSU's weak schedule and terrible loss will outweigh their potential Big 10 championship.
It is pointed out every week on the criteria list. Do not know if that is ESPN or the committee doing it but it has certainly been addressed and said that it is 1 of the 4 major criteria (body of work, eye test and head to head being the last when all other factors are even - according to Jeff Long)
I think you are assuming that Ohio State doesn't get the 'Herbstreit' treatment. They have been getting talked up MASSIVELY for the past 3 weeks. No one is bringing up the fact that they got out with their lives against PENN STATE in OT. They are talking about how they have gotten better and are giving excuses for a new QB for why they lost to VaTech. The shift toward Ohio State getting into the 4 is definitely happening. We very much need them to lose to take that luster off. And like someone else pointed out here. The committee has 3 Big 10 votes.
I am not disagreeing with your rationale, you are 100% correct. There is no way in hell anyone looks at them versus us without the names and picks them. Unfortunately, we do not get the benefit of living in that world.
I am not disagreeing with your rationale, you are 100% correct. There is no way in hell anyone looks at them versus us without the names and picks them. Unfortunately, we do not get the benefit of living in that world.
Don't worry about anything the media says about OSU, or any other team. The committee will not be swayed by the media. They're doing their own thing, and they have already shown they don't care what the other polls do, or what the talking heads say about them.
I have a hard time believing they would pick MSU (who has little name recognition and didn't even play in a championship game) over Ohio State that just won their conference championship game. I hope I am wrong. If OSU wins out, its a free pass to the playoffs. The conference championship will be the ultimate trump card.
And to go all black helicopters, if it was ATM or Auburn in the same situation as us, I think they have enough weight to keep them over OSU.
Do they pick the "most deserving" or "the best" four teams? Who knows. It's like voting on the MVP in baseball. Does it go to the player with the best stats or the player that is the most valuable to their team? It will be open for interpretation.
And to go all black helicopters, if it was ATM or Auburn in the same situation as us, I think they have enough weight to keep them over OSU.
Do they pick the "most deserving" or "the best" four teams? Who knows. It's like voting on the MVP in baseball. Does it go to the player with the best stats or the player that is the most valuable to their team? It will be open for interpretation.
The main difference this year as opposed to the BCS is that in the BCS we would have zero chance of getting into the national championship game outside of Auburn beating Alabama. Now we can get in through a multitude of different scenarios.
I sure wish they would watch danny kanell. They would throw FSU out of the top four the next Tuesday.
I am just glad to see some change from the way they used to weight a late loss more than an early one. It punished teams that don't finish up with cupcakes or weak conference foes.
Perception is everything though. If we lost to Bama the first game of the year and then won 9 straight then the talk would be much different because suddenly we are a "hot" team instead of an "exposed" team. This is why I have not listened to any talk radio or TV since Saturday.
Perception is everything though. If we lost to Bama the first game of the year and then won 9 straight then the talk would be much different because suddenly we are a "hot" team instead of an "exposed" team. This is why I have not listened to any talk radio or TV since Saturday.
Remember who is ranked #1: Alabama ... the team who lost to Ole Miss, got taken to overtime by an arguably weak LSU team, and who almost got beat by Arkansas, who lost 17 consecutive conference games. So if OSU gets bumped up, it won't be without precedent. I'd like to think that Alabama went to the top because they beat the #1 team, but it's more likely because they are Alabama. And OSU has similar name recognition and respect. Keep in mind that they are pre-season Top 10 regardless of how good they may be.
Eh, it might be....but I really don't think it will be because OSU has more "name recognition". It will just be because enough of the committee members value a Big 10 championship over being second place in the SEC West...and I will be disappointed but I won't have a problem with their decision.
We lost control of this thing by losing to Alabama. All State can do at this point is win out and hope for the best. If we lose to UMiss, then we won't have to worry about the committee anymore.
We lost control of this thing by losing to Alabama. All State can do at this point is win out and hope for the best. If we lose to UMiss, then we won't have to worry about the committee anymore.
We need to be in complete control of this game from the start. With Vandy never in it past the first series. That is what the committee seems to deem is important. That's what saved us against Bama. Even though we never lead we were never out of it either. We can't let an unranked horrible team like Vandy hang on past the first few series.