OT: 2025 Above Normal Atlantic Basin Tropical Activity Forecasts from CSU/NOAA; Erin a Cat 5, but should stay well off the east coast

bac2therac

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Jul 30, 2001
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Murphy called a state of emergency.

What a joke Murphy is

The weather boards have been agreeing that the amount of hype and overdramatization for a fish storm is absurd

There will certainly be localized flooding in shore locations but what does this have to do with the inland counties

Also the hype is causing curiousity seekers to head down the shore and watch

Reports of Belmar beaches totally covered by water
 
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T2Kplus20

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Thanks. Creative chop busting is one of the best things about this board. Even T gets it right once in awhile.
How Numbers should go out. Just chilling, waiting for Weather Jesus to come get him.

 
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Knight Shift

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Biggest waves I can remember. Of course I left Dodge before Sandy hit and they were a lot worse.
Sandy, Lake Como and the Atlantic Ocean merged. Houses on 20th to 19th ave A Street East had about 4-5 of water from ground level.
 

RU848789

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Minor to moderate coastal flooding all over the NJ coast (and in DE/NY too) from Hurricane Erin, especially from LBI to Cape May - and including some evacuations in the Egg Harbor/AC area. Some streets in almost every shore town are flooded, some with several feet of water, such that they're impassable. Turn around don't drown is still good advice. Much of this was from this evening's high tide and more flooding is expected with tomorrow morning's high tide.

https://www.nj.com/weather/2025/08/...Dv82YWR4ZRSjG0TgFL_aem_EIhlv6cAk9VwenaVBHa09w
 

RU848789

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Off base with this criticism, IMO. Declaring the SOE is simply for planning purposes so the State is ready to release funds for emergency response and recovery when and after a natural disaster strikes. It doesn't shut anything down, per se. I would think that someone involved in emergency response would appreciate an SOE to help with rapid response.

https://nj.gov/njoem/about-us/state-of-emergency.shtml#:~:text=What%20is%20a%20State%20of,event%20exceeds%20the%20State's%20resources.
 
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RU848789

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Went to AP to watch the ocean about 4:30. Water was halfway up the beach, going under Convention Hall. High tide wasn't until 6:59 tonight. Ocean looked like a washing machine. Was getting pelted by sand standing on the boardwalk.
We went to AP for lunch and to watch the ocean (the sea was angry that day, my friend) - incredible waves. Then went up to Sandy Hook for a walk on the beach - wild. Was still close to low tide though, so no flooding yet.
 

RU848789

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How Numbers should go out. Just chilling, waiting for Weather Jesus to come get him.

Kind of always thought I'd go out in a snow avalanche, but having a drink in the middle of a hurricane flood looks pretty cool too.
 
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Knight Shift

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Off base with this criticism, IMO. Declaring the SOE is simply for planning purposes so the State is ready to release funds for emergency response and recovery when and after a natural disaster strikes. It doesn't shut anything down, per se. I would think that someone involved in emergency response would appreciate an SOE to help with rapid response.

https://nj.gov/njoem/about-us/state-of-emergency.shtml#:~:text=What%20is%20a%20State%20of,event%20exceeds%20the%20State's%20resources.
Dude, lighten up. I merely posted purported resident reactions on social media. I made no comment myself. Your weathermansplaining is unnecessary and over the line here. I usually have your back on these threads.
 

RU848789

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Dude, lighten up. I merely posted purported resident reactions on social media. I made no comment myself. Your weathermansplaining is unnecessary and over the line here. I usually have your back on these threads.
So, you post a bunch of comments slamming Murphy's SOE, but we're supposed to not assume you don't feel that way yourself? I do appreciate your general support on these threads though.
 

Knight Shift

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Where does one sign up. :cool:

And another thing, @RU848789 got all worked up when someone incorrectly issues a flash flood warning in another thread.

The experts can chime in, but why would the Gov have said "we are expecting flash flooding" when the hurricane was 300-400 feet out at sea, and there was no rain even at the beach yesterday afternoon? At 6 p.m, there were light winds on the boardwalk of Belmar.



 

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RU848789

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Where does one sign up. :cool:

And another thing, @RU848789 got all worked up when someone incorrectly issues a flash flood warning in another thread.

The experts can chime in, but why would the Gov have said "we are expecting flash flooding" when the hurricane was 300-400 feet out at sea, and there was no rain even at the beach yesterday afternoon? At 6 p.m, there were light winds on the boardwalk of Belmar.



Yeah, I find it annoying when professionals provide incorrect info related to their safety to the public, as per what you linked in the old thread - I would think most would be annoyed at that.

I also didn't see the Gov talking about flash flooding from the hurricane at all, unless I missed it. There was the mention of flash flooding from the approaching front on Weds night (which was influenced by Erin, but Erin didn't "cause" that rain), which occurred in a few parts of NNJ/SENY.
 

RU848789

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In other OC news. What’s next?

Am very interested in @newell138's take on this. Thought for sure the hotel/development center were a done deal or else the developer never would've bought that property. He must be pissed, but I assume the locals spoke loudly against it - I just wish they could have figured out a way to keep Wonderland going - having it just empty will suck. We'll be there for 2 weeks in mid-Sept and will miss Wonderland (it closed for good at the end of our stay last year).
 

Knight Shift

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Yeah, I find it annoying when professionals provide incorrect info related to their safety to the public, as per what you linked in the old thread - I would think most would be annoyed at that.

I also didn't see the Gov talking about flash flooding from the hurricane at all, unless I missed it. There was the mention of flash flooding from the approaching front on Weds night (which was influenced by Erin, but Erin didn't "cause" that rain), which occurred in a few parts of NNJ/SENY.
Yesterday at 2 p.m. The Gov. is a putz. Dislike him for many reasons, and one is very personal. Good riddance to him. The only thing good he has done is be supportive of Rutgers.

 

T2Kplus20

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Am very interested in @newell138's take on this. Thought for sure the hotel/development center were a done deal or else the developer never would've bought that property. He must be pissed, but I assume the locals spoke loudly against it - I just wish they could have figured out a way to keep Wonderland going - having it just empty will suck. We'll be there for 2 weeks in mid-Sept and will miss Wonderland (it closed for good at the end of our stay last year).
The concept isn't awful, but like most developers this one went way overboard and is trying to shove too much on too small a site. Decrease the size of the hotel by 1/3 to 1/2 and it probably would be fine.

It just doesn't fit! :)

 
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T2Kplus20

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Yesterday at 2 p.m. The Gov. is a putz. Dislike him for many reasons, and one is very personal. Good riddance to him. The only thing good he has done is be supportive of Rutgers.


He's going to move back to Mass within 1-year of getting out of office.
 
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newell138

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Am very interested in @newell138's take on this. Thought for sure the hotel/development center were a done deal or else the developer never would've bought that property. He must be pissed, but I assume the locals spoke loudly against it - I just wish they could have figured out a way to keep Wonderland going - having it just empty will suck. We'll be there for 2 weeks in mid-Sept and will miss Wonderland (it closed for good at the end of our stay last year).
I wanted it passed. Need a good hotel in town and I like the way Icona does things
 
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newell138

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The concept isn't awful, but like most developers this one went way overboard and is trying to shove too much on too small a site. Decrease the size of the hotel by 1/3 to 1/2 and it probably would be fine.

It just doesn't fit! :)

IDK about not fitting but the man’s pissed it didn’t pass when by all accounts it was supposed to. He’s trying to sell the site now for $25 million but there isn’t much you can do there to recoup that kind of money and certainly not another amusement park like so many old timers are yearning for. Clearly not sustainable since the last one went bankrupt. If I was him I’d take down the Ferris wheel today to piss everyone off. He had promised to keep it up in his hotel design since it’s such a big part of the skyline when you come over the bridge.
 

T2Kplus20

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IDK about not fitting but the man’s pissed it didn’t pass when by all accounts it was supposed to. He’s trying to sell the site now for $25 million but there isn’t much you can do there to recoup that kind of money and certainly not another amusement park like so many old timers are yearning for. Clearly not sustainable since the last one went bankrupt. If I was him I’d take down the Ferris wheel today to piss everyone off. He had promised to keep it up in his hotel design since it’s such a big part of the skyline when you come over the bridge.
I still think there is a compromise to be had. Shrink the hotel a bit. Beef up the rides you are willing to continue operating. Boom, the plan will pass.

And yes, Icona runs the best shore hotels in NJ. We stayed at the Avalon one a few years ago and it was very nice.
 
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RU848789

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Tropics Update: Erin is finally gone and Tropical Storm Fernand was born Saturday night in the central Atlantic, south of Bermuda and is now well east of Bermuda and heading NNE in the Atlantic and is now only a threat to shipping. Invest 99L, a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean is only given a 30% chance of forming a named storm.

After that the tropics are likely to be fairly quiet for the next 10+ days as a large slug of dry, dusty air originating from the Sahara (the SAL or Saharan Air Layer) is likely to discourage any tropical development in the Atlantic - and nothing looks likely for the GOM/Caribbean either. This is unusual, as we're approaching the peak of the tropical season, which is Sept. 10th.

1756080260369.png
 

RU848789

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I still think there is a compromise to be had. Shrink the hotel a bit. Beef up the rides you are willing to continue operating. Boom, the plan will pass.

And yes, Icona runs the best shore hotels in NJ. We stayed at the Avalon one a few years ago and it was very nice.
I'm mixed on the OCNJ Wonderland property. In a perfect world, I would have preferred figuring out a way to keep it going and profitable, as I think it added a nice iconic nostalgic attraction to the town. However, since that appears to not be possible, what's next? It's certainly true that OCNJ lacks quality hotels and I may actually have to agree with you here (gasp!) - perhaps a smaller footprint, while retaining a bit more of the character of what was there (updated maybe) could be a reasonable compromise.