Wow, potential future Gabrielle has fallen apart due to dry air intrusion aloft and now only has a 30% risk of forming a named system.
correct and any model…ANY model that predicts a monster past 7 days out needs to be summarily ignored. unfortunately some hype/click-thirsty type use a single panel in some model 240 hours and later and unnecessarily scare many. so irresponsible.
When briefing wing commanders while part of Air Force Weather, we were instructed to never, ever deviate from the NHC and never bother wing leadership with any forecast past 7 days…5-7 days was merely fyi. <5? ok now pay attention. they appreciated not having their time wasted. now some where closet weather queens and did not mind over info…most were too busy.