I'm not an expert on wallets, but I've read that now people can directly choose between SOL and SUI and see which is a better fit for their needs/uses. SUI and move have a lot of advantages.
OT: Bitcoin, Altcoins, NFT's & All Things Crypto
- Thread starter bob-loblaw
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Not really, I think you’re reading Sui hopium posts. A wallet plugs into apps. Phantom on sol plugs into Jupiter, radyium, etc. They are what powers Solana, not phantom. Until Sui builds out such things, being able to hold it in a phantom wallet doesn’t do much. Load a little solana into a wallet and try out Jupiter, you’ll see what I mean.
Portnoy just ended his most recent pizza review video by saying....."I need to go now and trade some shitcoins". LOL! He knows what's going on.
Alts showing some life today. Led by SUI.
If I were to be buying something new these days it would be hyperliquid ($hype). Seems to be a pretty amazing trading platform with volumePortnoy just ended his most recent pizza review video by saying....."I need to go now and trade some shitcoins". LOL! He knows what's going on.
Alts showing some life today. Led by SUI.
Came to get the inside scoop on BTC and ETH,…….crickets
Amazing how many posts there are when they are flying high, but squat when they are diving. No comments on the big hack either. Been several weeks since any BTC discussion; just meme coin banter.
Any thoughts from the experts? I realize corrections are normal, and it’s been awhile since there has been one. But, with the billions Microstrategy is throwing at bitcoin, I figured that the price would have held up better. Microstrategy has really ramped up purchases since November. Approximately half of the coins they own were purchased in the last 5 months, while the other half were purchased over a four year period beginning in 2020.
Amazing how many posts there are when they are flying high, but squat when they are diving. No comments on the big hack either. Been several weeks since any BTC discussion; just meme coin banter.
Any thoughts from the experts? I realize corrections are normal, and it’s been awhile since there has been one. But, with the billions Microstrategy is throwing at bitcoin, I figured that the price would have held up better. Microstrategy has really ramped up purchases since November. Approximately half of the coins they own were purchased in the last 5 months, while the other half were purchased over a four year period beginning in 2020.
Pretty sure one of my last posts said I was surprised we haven’t had any bitcoin volatility, and here we are. Nothing very surprising at all here.
Probably the best buying opportunity you may ever have once the reserve and sovereign funds kick in amongst many other entities that will follow
Michael Saylor is not even a good salesman as his Bitcoin pitches compare Bitcoin to New York City real estate. Now I realize squatters laws are insane but it takes a bit more effort to squat than it does to do some computer hacking for dear leader while sitting in Pyongyang.
Ya but conversely if it get's shot down by Congress then BTC has a lot more to give back.
But this is the bull case. Not some BTC cycle. The 2020-21 run was also gov't fueled and not cycle driven.
Trump owns Congress (for at least the next 2 years). They ain't saying no to shiznit.
Let's see if this big beautiful bill gets through the Senate. Will be telling as to how much they are willing to toe the line.
Not sure if the crypto stuff is in that bill.
Honestly, not even sure that it needs to be. Exec orders and the right appointments may be enough.
Trump pump coming soon he owes too many crytpo-bros for buying him the election. It’s the calm before the glorious storm. I have been buying COIN shares although in the red down 15%. There’s no way Trump let’s crypto crash and burn at this point.
Trump, his entire family, Treasury Sec, Commerce Sec, SEC chair, Crypto Czar, and throw in Larry Fink.....all want BTC to go up. Not complicated for the next 4 years.
It being down 20% in spite of all of the regulatory momentum would be more cycle driven imo. We will know within a year if the cycle theory holds true
Every bull market has had large corrections usually due to leverage wipeouts. Some had clear causes, some did not.
Grok’s opinion on economic policy/rate factors vs cycles is below. TLDR- it’s both.
It’s a tug-of-war between rates and the halving cycle, and honestly, it’s probably both—but their influence shifts depending on timing and context. Let’s break it down to see which might’ve had the upper hand for Bitcoin’s 2023 surge and where we stand in 2025.
### The Case for Rates
Interest rates set the macro stage. Low rates (like 2020) flood the system with cheap money, pushing risk assets like Bitcoin up—see the $5,000-to-$69,000 run from 2020–2021. High rates (like 2022) tighten liquidity, and Bitcoin crashed from $69,000 to $15,000 as the Fed hiked to 5.25%. But in 2023, rates stabilized at that high 5.25%–5.5%, and Bitcoin still rallied from $16,600 to $44,000. That suggests rates alone weren’t the driver—holding steady didn’t tank it, but it didn’t ignite it either until cuts hit in 2024 (when BTC soared past $100,000 after the September drop to 4.75%).
Rates matter most when they *change*. Hikes hurt, cuts help, but a plateau? Bitcoin seems to shrug it off and look elsewhere for cues.
### The Case for the Halving Cycle
Bitcoin’s halving—cutting miner rewards every four years—has a track record of sparking bull runs by tightening supply growth. Here’s the pattern:
- **2012 Halving (Nov):** BTC went from $12 to $1,100 in a year (+9,000%).
- **2016 Halving (July):** From $650 to $19,800 by December 2017 (+2,900%).
- **2020 Halving (May):** From $8,700 to $69,000 by November 2021 (+690%).
The 2024 halving was April 19, and Bitcoin was already climbing in 2023—$16,600 to $44,000—well before the event. Post-halving, it hit $87,946 by February 25, 2025, a 100%+ jump from year-end 2023. Historically, the year *before* a halving often sees a pre-pump (2015: +35%, 2019: +90%), as traders front-run the supply squeeze. The year *after* is where the real fireworks happen (2013, 2017, 2021 peaks).
In 2023, with rates flat, the looming April 2024 halving likely fueled speculation. Miners hoarding, FOMO kicking in—classic cycle stuff. By 2025, we’re in that post-halving sweet spot, and the price reflects it.
### Which Wins in 2023?
- **Rates’ Role:** Minimal direct impact. No hikes or cuts meant no big push or pull from liquidity. The 2022 rate pain was baked in, and Bitcoin stabilized. But when cuts came in late 2024, they amplified the halving’s effect, not the other way around.
- **Halving’s Role:** Bigger driver. The 2023 surge aligns with pre-halving anticipation, mirroring 2015 and 2019. ETF hype helped, but the cycle’s gravitational pull—supply dropping from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block—set the rhythm.
### 2025 Perspective
Today, February 26, 2025, Bitcoin’s at $87,946. Rates are at 4.25%–4.5% after cuts, and we’re 10 months post-halving. The cycle says we’re in peak territory—past halvings saw tops 12–18 months out (e.g., November 2021, 18 months after May 2020). Rates dropping likely poured gas on the fire, but the halving lit the match. If history holds, we might see a blow-off top soon, then a cool-off—unless rates keep falling and rewrite the script.
### My Take
In 2023, the halving cycle was the heartbeat; rates were just the background noise. Stable rates gave Bitcoin room to breathe, but the halving narrative drove the surge. Now in 2025, they’re tag-teaming—cycle momentum plus rate cuts. If I had to pick one, the halving’s the kingmaker—it’s Bitcoin’s internal clock. Rates just turn the volume up or down.
There has been some speculation about crypto and gold.
Trump has fantasies about getting back on the gold standard but he admits it would be very hard.
Trump also likes crypto but understands the freewheeling volatility of crypto.
If Elon says crypto will be amazing it will soar - if he says its headed for a crash the bottom falls out.
An idea that's been discussed is taking the crypto the government seized/owns and backing that with gold.
That could set a measure of sorts
Weeks ago Bessant said "within the next 12 months, we are going to monetize the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet."
One aspect of that is marking gold to market so that it goes from 42.50 oz to today's price.
Land and other things would also be revalued
Whatever is going on the gold market is freaked as gold leaves London and much of it repatriated to NYC.
Physical deliveries are a couple of months behind and physical gold is harder to get
Tariff nerves have been seen as a cause but smart metal observers dispute that.
Weird thing about gold is sellers can sell gold they don't own but lease from somewhere else.
However much physical gold there is, some wonder just how much gold has been oversold under speculation.
Of course the Ft Knox thing is part of this (Bessant says its all there).
Trump and co think outside the box for better or worse so something is cooking
Trump has fantasies about getting back on the gold standard but he admits it would be very hard.
Trump also likes crypto but understands the freewheeling volatility of crypto.
If Elon says crypto will be amazing it will soar - if he says its headed for a crash the bottom falls out.
An idea that's been discussed is taking the crypto the government seized/owns and backing that with gold.
That could set a measure of sorts
Weeks ago Bessant said "within the next 12 months, we are going to monetize the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet."
One aspect of that is marking gold to market so that it goes from 42.50 oz to today's price.
Land and other things would also be revalued
Whatever is going on the gold market is freaked as gold leaves London and much of it repatriated to NYC.
Physical deliveries are a couple of months behind and physical gold is harder to get
Tariff nerves have been seen as a cause but smart metal observers dispute that.
Weird thing about gold is sellers can sell gold they don't own but lease from somewhere else.
However much physical gold there is, some wonder just how much gold has been oversold under speculation.
Of course the Ft Knox thing is part of this (Bessant says its all there).
Trump and co think outside the box for better or worse so something is cooking
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I was going to say it was not rates in 2020 and 2024, but crypto does trade somewhat in line with growth equities which are heavily influenced by rates.
Still Gov't Checks were a significant fuel for the 2020-21 run. Potential for ETF passage/institutional buying was huge in the 2nd half of 2023. And the Trump/Musk phenomena were/are significant fuel for this most current run. The US Gov't buying significant amount of BTC is what will be the main driver if BTC is going to take that next leg higher.
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POTUS is intentionally wrecking the economy because reasons. As my posts show I’m far from an advocate, but this is a broader market sell off and bitcoin and all crypto is getting lumped in with risk assets which always bleed when this happens.
What is Trump’s motivation to intentionally wreck the economy? Don’t get me wrong he’s completely f’in up my finances.
The guy is a wildcard so pick your reason but it’s very clear he is intentionally trying to move the markets downward.
Is it because he’s inside trading the movements? Is it because Putin does in fact own him? Is it because he’s trying to spark an uprising or a terrorist attack so he can exercise more direct control over the population through Martial Law like what’s in Project 2025? Is it because the crypto bros need him to collapse the world economy so crypto (BTC, ETH, TRUMP take your pick) can become the world currency? Is it because there’s a 4D chess move where we come out ahead in a year or so? Is he just trolling and will he wake up tomorrow and rollback most of his destructive policies? Is he just a wild idiot? Find out tomorrow in our new reality TV world.
Fair enough but in the crypto thread my post is like a 5/10 on the average post in here on the crazy scale.
Bessant says economy already a mess with a recession
"Our goal is to re-privatize the economy," Bessent said Tuesday at an event hosted by the Australian embassy.
The big picture: In a wide-ranging speech, the Treasury secretary said the Trump administration was looking to reverse what he characterized as huge government spending that came at the expense of the private sector.
"This is about more than just reducing the fiscal deficit," Bessent said. "Government overspending brings distortions in the economy that inhibit dynamism and limit growth to a designated subset of favorite sectors."
- "The previous administration's over-reliance on excessive government spending and overbearing regulation left us with an economy that may have exhibited some reasonable metrics but ultimately was brittle underneath," Bessent added.
- He said that the private sector has been in a recession, with jobs growth concentrated in government, education and health care sectors"
Most of the Jobs numbers were pre-revision smoke (like Ukraine war) despite what the USAID/CIA "fact checkers" (giggles) said
They are proposing to raise the debt limit $4t with more tax breaks than expenditures cut with the lions share of the tax breaks going to the $1m+ per year crowd. Many of the expenditures cut will be cutting anywhere from 250k-1m 6 figure government jobs, so the tax revenue from those folks will disappear along with the reduced economic activity that will come from it. Assuming they don’t trigger mass layoffs in the private sector and a recession (as I said, they are trying IMO), they’ll still need to raise that debt ceiling a bit higher for the lost revenue and economic activity.
Distributional Analysis of Trump’s Tax Plan
As your link points out, private sector employment is strong. Recent revisions, like in December, were actually upward.
Now could, or will private sector employment be stronger after they cut so much inefficiencies out of the gov't? Probably. And this needed to be done as the deficit is untenable, but it might be a longer haul then people are prepared for. Not only cutting out a couple trillion dollars every year which help fuel the economy, but also paying back 20-30 trillion or whatever it is now. This is not going to be easy.
If the goal is to pay off the deficit then there shouldn’t be tax breaks that far offset the cuts to the tune of $4t. The goal is not to pay off the deficit, it’s something else and we’ll find out what eventually.
Well the argument would be, these tax cuts will spur the economy, which will lead to a larger taxable base.
And then there is the tariff revenue.
Not saying it will pan out, or even that I like these ideas, but I'm also not befuddled by the logic of it.
Time will tell. I mean if he drives us into a recession while growing the deficit he won't be able to hide it.
Tariff revenue projects to be peanuts, about $20bn. Tax cuts to the 1% will spur the economy how? Rehire the fired gov employees to the private sector I guess in the best case scenario? It’s not as if Gov employees are a charity case, most are hired because there is a ROI to that hire, there will be a revenue drop by blindly cutting hundreds of thousands of them. That puts us right where we were in the best case scenario. Again, “we’ll see” what happens. My gut says it won’t be good, but if someone has a reason to believe in this other than blind faith Im all ears.
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LOL! There is no intention to wreck the economy. That is completely asinine. Trump really believes the US has been getting screwed on trade/tariffs. I'm fine with him pushing for reciprocity. That makes perfect sense and is fair. Not supportive of arbitrary tariffs on allies in Canada and Mexico. The market was at an ATH literally last week.
Whether he is right or wrong, he is doing what he thinks will help the US economy over the long run.
Second LOL! This is not true in anyway. You can cut 10-15% of the federal work force and now miss a beat if the others are motivated to be more productive. Getting back to the office is a nice start.
I used that article for what Bessant said.
The rest I didn't trust because the jobs numbers were wrong a lot and not by accident.
New part-time jobs were counted as full-time
The part timers were people getting 2nd and 3rd jobs to handle the higher costs.
Jobs and businesses re-hiring after CV-19 were reported as "new jobs.
The economy was great for gov funded stuff but a missed bus for many other people
July 2024
Jobs report is exaggerating U.S. employment gains. What is going on?
"The crucial U.S. jobs report has developed a bad habit: It keeps exaggerating how many new jobs are created each month.The government’s early estimate of new job gains has overstated the increase in hiring in 15 of the past 17 months dating to the start of 2023...
The problem has been especially pronounced this year. The jobs report has overstated the gain in new jobs by an average of 50,000 a month from January to May."
Aug 2024
"US job growth during much of the past year was significantly weaker than initially estimated, according to new data released Wednesday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary annual benchmark review of employment data suggests that there were 818,000 fewer jobs in March of this year than were initially reported."
I don’t doubt there is a lot to be cut in multi trillion dollar government. I also doubt that someone who knows very little coming into it, is cutting the right things in a very short amount of time. WFH or work from the office means little for anyone over 25. Anyone worth a **** above entry level in a white collar setting can get their work done wherever.