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OT: Electric vehicles

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WhichReligionIsRight

Heisman
Oct 19, 2010
207,472
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RUAldo said:
Yes Qanon for sure. The influencer market is estimated at $14B. Mostly people pushing products and agendas not because they use them or believe, but because of the money funneled to them behind the scenes. Yes, I realize this went on before the internet but social media changed the game. Until you’ve seen an real influencer contract you wouldn’t believe how it all works in terms of the specific number of posts, tweets, etc., what they have to say and when, maintain certain number of followers, re-posts, generate comments, non-disclosures, etc.
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Is there some reason to believe that Telsa might use influencers more extensively than, say Ford or Toyota? In any case, I've watched a ton of car and truck commercials today on today (well, largely skipped). Not one Tesla ad. Maybe auto industry influencers are a big thing? I dunno. What percentage of that 14 billion is for the auto industry? Automakers and suppliers account for about 3% of US GDP. Then divide that number across the various automakers and I doubt Tesla is possibly spending all that much on influencers. Until proven otherwise, I believe that influencer payments in the auto industry is a pittance compared to ad spending.

In any case, Telsa has a rabidly loyal bunch of owners who gladly rep Tesla for free at any given opportunity. I'd imagine that would be the case for many luxury automakers, except Tesla also brings another niche of folks concerned about global climate change and another niche of techies.
 
R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
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WhichReligionIsRight said:
Is there some reason to believe that Telsa might use influencers more extensively than, say Ford or Toyota? In any case, I've watched a ton of car and truck commercials today on today (well, largely skipped). Not one Tesla ad. Maybe auto industry influencers are a big thing? I dunno. What percentage of that 14 billion is for the auto industry? Automakers and suppliers account for about 3% of US GDP. Then divide that number across the various automakers and I doubt Tesla is possibly spending all that much on influencers. Until proven otherwise, I believe that influencer payments in the auto industry is a pittance compared to ad spending.

In any case, Telsa has a rabidly loyal bunch of owners who gladly rep Tesla for free at any given opportunity. I'd imagine that would be the case for many luxury automakers, except Tesla also brings another niche of folks concerned about global climate change and another niche of techies.
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Again, I got no beef with Tesla (the company) but to compare commercials to influencers is kind of silly. The vast majority of social media influencers are frauds, hiding behind their profiles, and only pump the products they get paid for. Teslarati, Teslanomics, etc. are BS pump factories who’s sole existence is to push Tesla cars. When Blake Shelton does a Ford commercial he’s obviously getting paid but his day job is an entertainer and he’s not spamming the social media world with how many units Ford will sell this quarter.
 
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J

Jtung230

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Jun 30, 2005
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RUAldo said:
Again, I got no beef with Tesla (the company) but to compare commercials to influencers is kind of silly. The vast majority of social media influencers are frauds, hiding behind their profiles, and only pump the products they get paid for. Teslarati, Teslanomics, etc. are BS pump factories who’s sole existence is to push Tesla cars. When Blake Shelton does a Ford commercial he’s obviously getting paid but his day job is an entertainer and he’s not spamming the social media world with how many units Ford will sell this quarter.
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Bingo!!!! No recourse.
 
W

WhichReligionIsRight

Heisman
Oct 19, 2010
207,472
28,752
0
 
R

RUAldo

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M

mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
55,607
51,272
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RUevolution36 said:
Click to expand...

RUAldo said:
What happens to gas stations all over the world once the electric movement fully takes hold? They convert to charging stations? Also, where are the people living in inner cities going to charge when they live in apartments with street parking? What are the companies that lead the charge (no pun intended) in manufacturing electric conversion products and installation?
Click to expand...

Although not strictly tech-driven, I see this sort of disruption as the tip of the inevitable tech-driven mass disruption coming down the pike (pun intended). Jobs are going away, without equivalent numbers of replacements, due to mass adoption of automation and only government interference will be able to slow it down. And government can’t hold it back for long anyway or our corporations will become globally non-competitive.

Workers will shift to EV production as ICE production wanes. But people at gas stations will lose jobs that won’t be replaced. People in ICE supply-chains, and ICE mechanics, etc. will lose jobs. And then EV producer jobs will start going away too, as robotics and software takes over what people do now.

Gonna be a period of pain as the industrial world adapts socioeconomically. No avoiding it.
 
R

RUAldo

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mildone said:
Although not strictly tech-driven, I see this sort of disruption as the tip of the inevitable tech-driven mass disruption coming down the pike (pun intended). Jobs are going away, without equivalent numbers of replacements, due to mass adoption of automation and only government interference will be able to slow it down. And government can’t hold it back for long anyway or our corporations will become globally non-competitive.

Workers will shift to EV production as ICE production wanes. But people at gas stations will lose jobs that won’t be replaced. People in ICE supply-chains, and ICE mechanics, etc. will lose jobs. And then EV producer jobs will start going away too, as robotics and software takes over what people do now.

Gonna be a period of pain as the industrial world adapts socioeconomically. No avoiding it.
Click to expand...
The one problem with EVs that doesn’t seem to get much attention is how do you electrify densely populated areas like cities? IF you are lucky enough to have garage or underground parking ALL of them would need major retrofitting and will landlords spend the money and if they do how does that impact rent? Same with service stations - there is clearly a hefty cost that will have to be paid to transition all those gas stations to electric. Will the consumer get stuck with the bill of the shift to EV?
 
M

mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
55,607
51,272
0
RUAldo said:
The one problem with EVs that doesn’t seem to get much attention is how do you electrify densely populated areas like cities? IF you are lucky enough to have garage or underground parking ALL of them would need major retrofitting and will landlords spend the money and if they do how does that impact rent? Same with service stations - there is clearly a hefty cost that will have to be paid to transition all those gas stations to electric. Will the consumer get stuck with the bill of the shift to EV?
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I would guess more companies will spring up to offer public charging. But I guess in cities like NYC, it’ll be tough due to the vertical density. There’s the middle ground with condos and townhouses and places like Georgetown where there are lots of cars with only street parking. It’s gonna be a problem. Maybe cities will offer combo charging/parking meters.

I think the bigger problem is the strain on the grids.
 
R

RUAldo

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mildone said:
I would guess more companies will spring up to offer public charging. But I guess in cities like NYC, it’ll be tough due to the vertical density. There’s the middle ground with condos and townhouses and places like Georgetown where there are lots of cars with only street parking. It’s gonna be a problem. Maybe cities will offer combo charging/parking meters.

I think the bigger problem is the strain on the grids.
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From an investment perspective seems the electrification companies may be the real play by utilizing the old pick and shovel approach during the gold rush. Let the EV car companies beat the crap out of each other and squeeze margins while charging stations clean up.
 
M

mdk02

Heisman
Aug 18, 2011
26,417
18,722
113
RUAldo said:
From an investment perspective seems the electrification companies may be the real play by utilizing the old pick and shovel approach during the gold rush. Let the EV car companies beat the crap out of each other and squeeze margins while charging stations clean up.
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You know the investment required to upgrade existing parking meters in dense cities to parking/charging stations? Inexpensive to charge EVs in those places? I don't think so.
 
R

RUAldo

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mdk01 said:
You know the investment required to upgrade existing parking meters in dense cities to parking/charging stations? Inexpensive to charge EVs in those places? I don't think so.
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I was talking mainly about private facilities and also the suppliers of materials like electrical cable.
 
M

mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
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51,272
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Knight Shift said:
Detroit Free Press article claiming electric vehicles are more expensive than gas vehicles per mile.


And then they tout PHEVs

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Detroit info sources are probably gonna have pro-ICE lean. I‘m sure some pro-EV media will exhibit the opposite lean. I’m gonna read through the Anderson study to see the methodology details.

I’m hoping it’s a pretty objective study seeing as how that would be a lot more useful than the typical biased stuff we see put out by fanboys, manufactures or manufacturer-sponsored sources, all of which should is likely to be heavily skewed.
 
M

mdk02

Heisman
Aug 18, 2011
26,417
18,722
113
RUAldo said:
I was talking mainly about private facilities and also the suppliers of materials like electrical cable.
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I'm with you on materials. You know how much rent will be in Manhattan, Brooklyn and Hoboken for that private facility?
 
M

mdk02

Heisman
Aug 18, 2011
26,417
18,722
113
mildone said:
Detroit info sources are probably gonna have pro-ICE lean. I‘m sure some pro-EV media will exhibit the opposite lean. I’m gonna read through the Anderson study to see the methodology details.

I’m hoping it’s a pretty objective study seeing as how that would be a lot more useful than the typical biased stuff we see put out by fanboys, manufactures or manufacturer-sponsored sources, all of which should is likely to be heavily skewed.
Click to expand...

Heretics!!! Guillotine!!!!
 
Knight Shift

Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
87,401
85,053
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mildone said:
Detroit info sources are probably gonna have pro-ICE lean. I‘m sure some pro-EV media will exhibit the opposite lean. I’m gonna read through the Anderson study to see the methodology details.

I’m hoping it’s a pretty objective study seeing as how that would be a lot more useful than the typical biased stuff we see put out by fanboys, manufactures or manufacturer-sponsored sources, all of which should is likely to be heavily skewed.
Click to expand...
Why would they have a pro-ICE lean?
Have a reservation for an F150 Lightning, but now having "reservations" about the reservation and getting cold feet. To get the trim level and options we would want, the price would be pushing $90K. The reality is we don't need a large pickup truck, maybe once every 12-18 months, and we could rent one when needed. Aside from that, did the math on the purported savings on gas (not taking into account the cost of electricity/charging), and figured that driving at about 15-20,000 miles/year there would be a payback period of about 20 years. Yes, there will be maintenance on ICE vehicles that is more than maintenance on EV, but overall, for our annual mileage, the cost benefit is not there. On top of these items, a friend who owns a Tesla said that charging in our locale can be a bit of a pain in the neck, and he said it would be best to gain an understanding the charging network for the Ford vehicles.

We will likely punt on the F150 Lightning, but will keep the option there, and we may get a smaller pickup, such as the Maverick, which will suit our needs.

Here is a light, not so deep dive into the costs of EV v. ICE, with a link to a deeper dive.

 
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mildone_rivals

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Knight Shift said:
Why would they have a pro-ICE lean?
Have a reservation for an F150 Lightning, but now having "reservations" about the reservation and getting cold feet. To get the trim level and options we would want, the price would be pushing $90K. The reality is we don't need a large pickup truck, maybe once every 12-18 months, and we could rent one when needed. Aside from that, did the math on the purported savings on gas (not taking into account the cost of electricity/charging), and figured that driving at about 15-20,000 miles/year there would be a payback period of about 20 years. Yes, there will be maintenance on ICE vehicles that is more than maintenance on EV, but overall, for our annual mileage, the cost benefit is not there. On top of these items, a friend who owns a Tesla said that charging in our locale can be a bit of a pain in the neck, and he said it would be best to gain an understanding the charging network for the Ford vehicles.

We will likely punt on the F150 Lightning, but will keep the option there, and we may get a smaller pickup, such as the Maverick, which will suit our needs.

Here is a light, not so deep dive into the costs of EV v. ICE, with a link to a deeper dive.

Click to expand...
Detroit is motor city and journalists there probably won’t fail to understand that, despite American auto company‘s stated EV future, a lot of jobs will disappear with the transition. So my guess is Detriot based media doesn’t want to put out news that might be perceived as bad.

I understand your hesitation and thinking about the F150 Lightning. It looks awesome. But if one doesn’t need something so large, why get it? I started out looking at large 3 row SUVs and now am leaning towards cross-over or mid-sized SUVs instead ‘cause I have no real reason to get something larger.
 
W

WhichReligionIsRight

Heisman
Oct 19, 2010
207,472
28,752
0
mildone said:
Although not strictly tech-driven, I see this sort of disruption as the tip of the inevitable tech-driven mass disruption coming down the pike (pun intended). Jobs are going away, without equivalent numbers of replacements, due to mass adoption of automation and only government interference will be able to slow it down. And government can’t hold it back for long anyway or our corporations will become globally non-competitive.

Workers will shift to EV production as ICE production wanes. But people at gas stations will lose jobs that won’t be replaced. People in ICE supply-chains, and ICE mechanics, etc. will lose jobs. And then EV producer jobs will start going away too, as robotics and software takes over what people do now.

Gonna be a period of pain as the industrial world adapts socioeconomically. No avoiding it.
Click to expand...

People are going to have to learn software and how to fix robots. Stuff is always going to break, so mechanics and repairmen will do well. Not a bright future for the unskilled in our society.
 
W

WhichReligionIsRight

Heisman
Oct 19, 2010
207,472
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0
RUAldo said:
What happens to gas stations all over the world once the electric movement fully takes hold? They convert to charging stations? Also, where are the people living in inner cities going to charge when they live in apartments with street parking? What are the companies that lead the charge (no pun intended) in manufacturing electric conversion products and installation?
Click to expand...

Gas stations tend to have the best locations - major intersections and freeway off ramps. I suspect the conversion to other land uses will be easy enough - assuming there aren't major ground pollution issues. I do know that the hydrogen fuel cell industry is looking covetously at gas station locations, but I'm personally not optimistic that fuel cells will ever take off.
 
H

HeavenUniv.

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Sep 21, 2004
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WhichReligionIsRight said:
Gas stations tend to have the best locations - major intersections and freeway off ramps. I suspect the conversion to other land uses will be easy enough - assuming there aren't major ground pollution issues. I do know that the hydrogen fuel cell industry is looking covetously at gas station locations, but I'm personally not optimistic that fuel cells will ever take off.
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There was a gas station on Route 9 North in Freehold/Manalapan that is now a Starbucks.
 
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HeavenUniv.

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mildone said:
Although not strictly tech-driven, I see this sort of disruption as the tip of the inevitable tech-driven mass disruption coming down the pike (pun intended). Jobs are going away, without equivalent numbers of replacements, due to mass adoption of automation and only government interference will be able to slow it down. And government can’t hold it back for long anyway or our corporations will become globally non-competitive.

Workers will shift to EV production as ICE production wanes. But people at gas stations will lose jobs that won’t be replaced. People in ICE supply-chains, and ICE mechanics, etc. will lose jobs. And then EV producer jobs will start going away too, as robotics and software takes over what people do now.

Gonna be a period of pain as the industrial world adapts socioeconomically. No avoiding it.
Click to expand...
Ten or fifteen years ago, England formed a commission to see how the country could be run on a permanent 25 percent unemployment rate.
 
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RUevolution36

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HeavenUniv. said:
Ten or fifteen years ago, England formed a commission to see how the country could be run on a permanent 25 percent unemployment rate.
Click to expand...
This is why the tech industry and folks like Andrew Yang have proposed UBI. Tech knows they're automating jobs out of existence.
 
M

mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
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WhichReligionIsRight said:
People are going to have to learn software and how to fix robots. Stuff is always going to break, so mechanics and repairmen will do well. Not a bright future for the unskilled in our society.
Click to expand...
Only gonna help in the near term.

A lot of software will be writing and maintaining itself sooner than people realize. And when it does, a boatload of software industry jobs will evaporate. Robots will fix themselves in a steadily growing number of cases.

In the past, it was blue collar jobs that went away. This time around it’ll be a lot of white collar jobs too. And it’ll all happen far, far faster than any disruptions humanity has previously experienced.

Out children will live in very interesting times, unfortunately.
 
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mildone_rivals

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HeavenUniv. said:
Ten or fifteen years ago, England formed a commission to see how the country could be run on a permanent 25 percent unemployment rate.
Click to expand...
Wise of them to start thinking about the problem now. 25% is a kind of an arbitrary number. It might seem scary yet manageable to them.

But they’d do better to think in terms of 50%. The time it’ll take to go from ~25% to ~50% will likely be insanely short. Once we reach a few technical tipping points, the subsequent pseudo-exponential technology leaps will be massive.
 
M

mildone_rivals

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Dec 19, 2011
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RUevolution36 said:
This is why the tech industry and folks like Andrew Yang have proposed UBI. Tech knows they're automating jobs out of existence.
Click to expand...
UBI is maybe a potential transitionary step. But it is still rooted in our current socioeconomic model. And that model just won’t work after a certain point.

To use the arbitrary numbers tossed around, UBI can possibly work at 25% participation rate - I don’t know. I do know there will be a lot of pushback on the idea at first.

But it probably cannot work at %50 or higher, right? Where would the funds come from?
 
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RUevolution36

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mildone said:
UBI is maybe a potential transitionary step. But it is still rooted in our current socioeconomic model. And that model just won’t work after a certain point.

To use the arbitrary numbers tossed around, UBI can possibly work at 25% participation rate - I don’t know. I do know there will be a lot of pushback on the idea at first.

But it probably cannot work at %50 or higher, right? Where would the funds come from?
Click to expand...
I have no idea. As usual... leave it up to the science and math people dream up the ideas... but have no idea how to fund it.
 
W

WhichReligionIsRight

Heisman
Oct 19, 2010
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RUAldo said:
No doubt it’s a good deal to snag but reports indicate Hertz is paying wholesale/cost. Still has no business being a $1T company.
Click to expand...

While I'm inclined to strongly agree with you, I try to take the Parcells adage that you are what your record says you are when it comes to the market.
 
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RUAldo

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WhichReligionIsRight said:
While I'm inclined to strongly agree with you, I try to take the Parcells adage that you are what your record says you are when it comes to the market.
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I’d love to be in Tesla and certainty it’s made a lot of folks a lot of money. But, going purely by the numbers its $1T market cap is lunacy and we haven’t seen this level of craziness since pets.com during the internet bubble. The problem is that retail traders keep piling into the stock and Big Money is just riding the wave. Guarantee CW will make an appearance shortly to further drive the stock above $1K. She knows to strike when the iron is hot. Regardless, kudos to those who have done well with Tesla.
 
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