OT: Electric vehicles

RUschool

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U.S. and European politicians have raised alarms that their domestic auto industries could be destroyed by a wave of cheap Chinese electric vehicles. But so far, China's top EV maker, BYD, has dramatically hiked export prices compared to what it charges at home rather than undercut foreign rivals.

The goal: to rake in hefty profit margins the automaker can’t get in China amid fierce competition.

In some foreign showrooms, BYD charges more than double — sometimes nearly triple — the price it gets for three key models in China, according to a Reuters review of the automaker’s pricing in five of its biggest export markets.

Take the BYD Atto 3, a compact electric crossover. In China, the midrange version sells for $19,283. In Germany, the little SUV is priced at $42,789 — a price that's still competitive with comparable electric vehicles in that market.
 

RU05

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U.S. and European politicians have raised alarms that their domestic auto industries could be destroyed by a wave of cheap Chinese electric vehicles. But so far, China's top EV maker, BYD, has dramatically hiked export prices compared to what it charges at home rather than undercut foreign rivals.

The goal: to rake in hefty profit margins the automaker can’t get in China amid fierce competition.

In some foreign showrooms, BYD charges more than double — sometimes nearly triple — the price it gets for three key models in China, according to a Reuters review of the automaker’s pricing in five of its biggest export markets.

Take the BYD Atto 3, a compact electric crossover. In China, the midrange version sells for $19,283. In Germany, the little SUV is priced at $42,789 — a price that's still competitive with comparable electric vehicles in that market.
I assume this is mostly just cheap labor?

Now sure how more established nations can compete.

And unlike traditional heavy machinery we know China can build electronics.
 

RUschool

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I assume this is mostly just cheap labor?

Now sure how more established nations can compete.

And unlike traditional heavy machinery we know China can build electronics.
BYD has an advantage over legacy automakers with its vertically integrated supply chain. It makes almost all components of its cars in-house rather than farming them out to suppliers.

Lowering the cost of batteries — an EV's most expensive component — has been key. BYD and other Chinese automakers and suppliers have spent the last two decades securing access to mines around the world to lock up critical battery minerals such as lithium and cobalt, said Keith Norman, chief sustainability officer at Silicon Valley battery startup Lyten. "They own the critical-minerals part," Norman said.

Data provided to Reuters by market intelligence firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, shows the price for batteries in China to be around 18% lower this year than in Europe.

A giant company like BYD, which makes its own batteries, can drive its costs even lower by negotiating volume discounts across the battery supply chain, said Benchmark analyst Roman Aubry.

Chinese automakers are helped by affordable land — often subsidized by local authorities — and benefit from cheaper electricity and labor. They can also build plants in China in as little as a year because they face fewer regulatory hurdles than in Western countries, according to Mark Wakefield, head of the global automotive practice at AlixPartners, a New York-based consultancy.

That means Chinese automakers’ capital investment is far lower per vehicle, “and you make more money," he said.
 
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Knight Shift

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On the flip side of that, I assume if they are making so much profit on these cars, that the gov't gets a bunch back in taxes?

BYD, China’s biggest electric carmaker, received about $3.5 billion in direct government subsidies between 2018 and 2022, the institute said, citing BYD’s annual reports. BYD didn’t respond to a request for comment.

According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy – a German economic research institute regarded as one of the world’s most influential policy think tanks – Chinese carmaker BYD has built its rapid growth in part on far greater government support than other brands typically enjoy.​

The report comes after an announcement in September 2023 that the European Union had launched an investigation into unfair subsidies boosting the success of Chinese EVs in EU markets, followed by the news in March this year that the EU had collected “sufficient evidence” to potentially impose retroactive tariffs.



 

RU05

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BYD, China’s biggest electric carmaker, received about $3.5 billion in direct government subsidies between 2018 and 2022, the institute said, citing BYD’s annual reports. BYD didn’t respond to a request for comment.

According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy – a German economic research institute regarded as one of the world’s most influential policy think tanks – Chinese carmaker BYD has built its rapid growth in part on far greater government support than other brands typically enjoy.​

The report comes after an announcement in September 2023 that the European Union had launched an investigation into unfair subsidies boosting the success of Chinese EVs in EU markets, followed by the news in March this year that the EU had collected “sufficient evidence” to potentially impose retroactive tariffs.



Investment's which are now poised to pay off.

Not that I'm rooting for it.
 
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Knight Shift

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Did he mention anything about free speech during this meeting?
Elon is a two-faced *****.

Take note. I often forget to close my charging port when responding to fire calls, but I just leave it open.

"A 68-year-old Groveland man died Thursday morning at the bottom of Old Priest Grade and below Highway 120 when he stopped his 2023 Ford F-150 Lightning all-electric pickup to close the charge portal on the truck’s front left quarter-panel.

The truck continued moving, the California Highway Patrol said, and the man was dragged underneath and came to rest on an embankment between Highway 120 and Moccasin Switchback Road. The truck continued rolling downhill across Moccasin Switchback and through multiple fences before it came to a stop in a yard.

“He stopped at the end of Old Priest, realized the charging port was open, and he partially got out and tried to close it,” CHP Sgt. Randy Matyshock said at the crash scene. “The truck started moving across 120, it looked like it was going to go over the edge, he grabbed the steering wheel and pulled it hard to the left. It made a quasi-U-turn, across both lanes of 120, he was hopping with it, and at some point he fell completely out of the vehicle, and the vehicle drove over him.”
The Tuolumne County coroner was working on notifying the man’s family, CHP Officer Steve Machado said in a phone interview."

 

RU05

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Elon is a two-faced *****.

Take note. I often forget to close my charging port when responding to fire calls, but I just leave it open.

"A 68-year-old Groveland man died Thursday morning at the bottom of Old Priest Grade and below Highway 120 when he stopped his 2023 Ford F-150 Lightning all-electric pickup to close the charge portal on the truck’s front left quarter-panel.

The truck continued moving, the California Highway Patrol said, and the man was dragged underneath and came to rest on an embankment between Highway 120 and Moccasin Switchback Road. The truck continued rolling downhill across Moccasin Switchback and through multiple fences before it came to a stop in a yard.

“He stopped at the end of Old Priest, realized the charging port was open, and he partially got out and tried to close it,” CHP Sgt. Randy Matyshock said at the crash scene. “The truck started moving across 120, it looked like it was going to go over the edge, he grabbed the steering wheel and pulled it hard to the left. It made a quasi-U-turn, across both lanes of 120, he was hopping with it, and at some point he fell completely out of the vehicle, and the vehicle drove over him.”
The Tuolumne County coroner was working on notifying the man’s family, CHP Officer Steve Machado said in a phone interview."

Is this really an EV story?

But why not have a self closing port? Would think it wouldn't be much of a technical leap on an all electric vehice.
 

Knight Shift

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Is this really an EV story?

But why not have a self closing port? Would think it wouldn't be much of a technical leap on an all electric vehice.
It is an EV story. Totally agree on the self-closing port. I am a volunteer firefighter. When I respond to fire calls and my Lightning is plugged in, not only is the door not self-closing, but there is some useless flap of plastic that has to be flipped up in order to close the door. I have left for fire calls many times with the stupid door open, but I just ignore the warning. I was just in the garage seeing if I could come up with something that would bias the door to a closed position.
 

RUschool

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Investment's which are now poised to pay off.

Not that I'm rooting for it.
Economics of scale might be another reason their cost are much lower. The Chinese EV sales in 2023 8.1 million while US market is 1.4 million in 2023. There are a significant percentage of US consumers that believe that EV vehicles pollute more than ICE vehicles. While the US is deciding whether EV is a good buy, Chinese consumers are going full speed ahead. Over 30% of cars sold are EV in China and only 7% of cars sold in the US are EV.

Everyone would like the US to lead theEV industry but too many US consumers aren’t interested.
 

RU05

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Economics of scale might be another reason their cost are much lower. The Chinese EV sales in 2023 8.1 million while US market is 1.4 million in 2023. There are a significant percentage of US consumers that believe that EV vehicles pollute more than ICE vehicles. While the US is deciding whether EV is a good buy, Chinese consumers are going full speed ahead. Over 30% of cars sold are EV in China and only 7% of cars sold in the US are EV.

Everyone would like the US to lead theEV industry but too many US consumers aren’t interested.
Is China's charging infrastructure that much better?

Also sounds like their cars are much cheaper. If Tesla or Ford or GM were selling a $10K car here in the US, I bet US consumers would be more interested.

Also think Chinese consumers are just further ahead on the curve, the US did just see a big surge, has now flat lined, but a further surge in the next couple years is very possible.
 

Jtung230

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It is an EV story. Totally agree on the self-closing port. I am a volunteer firefighter. When I respond to fire calls and my Lightning is plugged in, not only is the door not self-closing, but there is some useless flap of plastic that has to be flipped up in order to close the door. I have left for fire calls many times with the stupid door open, but I just ignore the warning. I was just in the garage seeing if I could come up with something that would bias the door to a closed position.
Problem solved
 
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RUschool

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Is China's charging infrastructure that much better?

Also sounds like their cars are much cheaper. If Tesla or Ford or GM were selling a $10K car here in the US, I bet US consumers would be more interested.

Also think Chinese consumers are just further ahead on the curve, the US did just see a big surge, has now flat lined, but a further surge in the next couple years is very possible.
I don’t have a EV and the $40k plus cost is definitely a factor. A $15k car is more to my liking. I’m getting over paying $30k in 2020 for a new car, the previous car was $20k.
 

mildone_rivals

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On the flip side of that, I assume if they are making so much profit on these cars, that the gov't gets a bunch back in taxes?
While I vastly prefer our form of government to any other, one advantage of China’s government is that they can make long-term decisions they beleive benefit themselves as a nation and implement those decisions without fear of being attacked by any political opposition that cares more about winning elections than the country. In the case of EVs and EV technology, China seems to have been working to give its companies an advantage.

And we can see how hard, and successfully Chinese intelligence is working to manipulate Americans through social media into not allowing our elected political leadership to compete with China in this. I’m not a fan of EV mandates, but I understand that they are not all about a feel-good “green movement”. The US is at least somewhat likely to be playing catch-up for a long time. We’re risking missing out on some significant future economic growth potential.

It’s the future, and it’s complex. So who really knows for sure. But falling behind too much seems to risk of creating potentially undesirable foreign dependencies.
 
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RU05

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While I vastly prefer our form of government to any other, one advantage of China’s government is that they can make long-term decisions they beleive benefit themselves as a nation and implement those decisions without fear of being attacked by any political opposition that cares more about winning elections than the country. In the case of EVs and EV technology, China seems to have been working to give its companies an advantage.

And we can see how hard, and successfully Chinese intelligence is working to manipulate Americans through social media into not allowing our elected political leadership to compete with China in this. I’m not a fan of EV mandates, but I understand that they are not all about a feel-good “green movement”. The US is at least somewhat likely to be playing catch-up for a long time. We’re risking missing out on some significant future economic growth potential.

It’s the future, and it’s complex. So who really knows for sure. But falling behind too much seems to risk of creating potentially undesirable foreign dependencies.
At the root of china’s manufacturing dominance imo is the low cost of labor. Its why the government can skim so much off the top to reinvest.

How long does that last? Does manufacturing of automobiles change that dynamic?
 

Knight Shift

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At the root of china’s manufacturing dominance imo is the low cost of labor. Its why the government can skim so much off the top to reinvest.

How long does that last? Does manufacturing of automobiles change that dynamic?
China is having economic woes. We shall see.
 
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mildone_rivals

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At the root of china’s manufacturing dominance imo is the low cost of labor. Its why the government can skim so much off the top to reinvest.

How long does that last? Does manufacturing of automobiles change that dynamic?
Those are good and important questions to be figured out by people who have a background in the relevant economic subjects. Which I do not. Is all way out of my areas of expertise.

China has been trying to forge business alliances in important parts of the world for awhile (another thing they can do without fear of serious political opposition). IIRC, Bush 2 figured that out in year 6 and was able to make some investments. But that wasn’t loved by big chunks of his base.

The US has no legal domestic cheap labor workforce. We have to outsource to accomplish that.

We can make a bigger push to lay off workers and fully automate new manufacturing. Is gonna happen eventually, maybe we can speed it up. Not sure that would work, but maybe.

We could create lots more room for legal immigration and basically import cheap labor from south of the border. But that will face extreme political backlash. And since I’m no economist, I really don’t know how much it could work or help.

Tesla had a big head start but our government (both parties) have squandered that.

Perhaps we should just punt and come up with another critical growth sector in which we can get a head start and dominate.
 

mildone_rivals

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China is having economic woes. We shall see.
China can afford economic woes as long as the woes don’t lead to social instability (their #1 priority and by a wide margin).

Whereas, at the moment, with both our political parties much more interested in undoing anything done by their opposition than forging compromises, we cannot ride out economic woes without changing the party in power. Each new administration and/or congressional majority change undoes anything that requires long term strategies and goals.

Our current extremely polarized political climate has become a significant geopolitical liability. Who benefits from each side’s ideological rigidity? It sure isn’t the United States.
 
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RU05

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Those are good and important questions to be figured out by people who have a background in the relevant economic subjects. Which I do not. Is all way out of my areas of expertise.

China has been trying to forge business alliances in important parts of the world for awhile (another thing they can do without fear of serious political opposition). IIRC, Bush 2 figured that out in year 6 and was able to make some investments. But that wasn’t loved by big chunks of his base.

The US has no legal domestic cheap labor workforce. We have to outsource to accomplish that.

We can make a bigger push to lay off workers and fully automate new manufacturing. Is gonna happen eventually, maybe we can speed it up. Not sure that would work, but maybe.

We could create lots more room for legal immigration and basically import cheap labor from south of the border. But that will face extreme political backlash. And since I’m no economist, I really don’t know how much it could work or help.

Tesla had a big head start but our government (both parties) have squandered that.

Perhaps we should just punt and come up with another critical growth sector in which we can get a head start and dominate.
Strengthening relations with, and near shoring in Mexico is our best bet imo. Won't be manufactured here, but would be with our friendly neighbor.

Would also potentially stave off the illegal immigration into the US.

Tesla wanted to build the Model 2 there I believe. I also believe Ford makes the Mach E there.
 

Knight Shift

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Strengthening relations with, and near shoring in Mexico is our best bet imo. Won't be manufactured here, but would be with our friendly neighbor.

Would also potentially stave off the illegal immigration into the US.

Tesla wanted to build the Model 2 there I believe. I also believe Ford makes the Mach E there.
From Wikipedia:

Unlike the internal combustion engine (ICE) Mustang models, the Mach-E is assembled at Cuautitlán Assembly in Cuautitlán Izcalli, Mexico.[1] According to former Ford CEO Jim Hackett, assembling the vehicle in Mexico allows Ford to make a profit from the first vehicle, unlike other electric vehicles, adding that as Ford develops factory capacity for electric vehicle production in the United States, some production may be moved there.

In February 2021, Ford announced the vehicle would be produced in China by the Changan Ford joint venture for the Chinese domestic market in order to penetrate the nation's electric vehicle market.[40]

In April 2022, Ford stopped accepting new orders for the 2022 model year Mustang Mach-E due to its popularity.

In June 2022, the CFO of Ford Motor announced that the profitability of the Mustang Mach-E has been wiped out due to increases in the cost of raw materials.[41]
 
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You tried telling us ranges were stagnating because of LFP, but this is the opposite.

Also, one of the first semi-solid state battery debuted a couple weeks ago.
Incorrect. I've said for well over a year, LFP would be the dominant battery chemistry with incremental improvements along the way. I don't have a magic crystal ball. I'm just listening to what suppliers and autos have been saying, whereas most of the others in this thread are in fantasy land when it comes to batteries.

But, yeah, let's keep talking about solid state. Toyota is due for a recycled headline from 2012.
 
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Is China's charging infrastructure that much better?

Also sounds like their cars are much cheaper. If Tesla or Ford or GM were selling a $10K car here in the US, I bet US consumers would be more interested.

Also think Chinese consumers are just further ahead on the curve, the US did just see a big surge, has now flat lined, but a further surge in the next couple years is very possible.
Many of the cheap Chinese EVs would not pass safely regs in the US or Europe.
 
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I’d imagine that will add an exponential growth rate to fsd learning.
Combined with the fact that Tesla is no longer compute constrained, yes.

The updates are now coming fast and unlike the builds prior to V12, where it was often 2 step forward, 1 step back, these updates are significant jumps in performance.

For the most part, FSD has gotten boring because it's so good. It's not a robotaxi yet, but most of my drives are zero intervention. I'm seeing emergent behaviors and it's able to get itself out of trouble in many cases.
 

Caliknight

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Ford is taking massive losses on their EV's. Only a matter of time before they kill them. EV's aren't a sustainable business model.

 
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This is funny because 2 post prior to this you said China doesn’t have good safety requirements.
Yeah, hilarious. I guess China wants to kill their citizens because apparently there's mountains of evidence showing how unsafe FSD is. I can't seem to find any though. Could you share please?
 

mildone_rivals

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Knight Shift

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Tesla lays off entire Supercharger team. The hits keep coming. Meanwhile, the Tesla sycophants are like:
Explosion Reaction GIF

Now, more layoffs have been finalized through an email from CEO Elon Musk to executives, first reported by The Information, stating that 6-year veteran Rebecca Tinucci, Tesla’s Senior Director of EV charging, would be leaving the company on Tuesday, along with nearly all of her 500-person charging team (“a few” employees will be reassigned to other teams, according to The Information).
 
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