OT: Investing right now

[615dawg]

Investing is simply coming down to one question.

Do you believe that AI is a fad or the future?

If you believe its a fad, best to keep diversifying and making 12-15% on Home Depot, Wal Mart and SPY.

But if you believe AI is the future, fortunes are going to be made. QQQ at all time highs.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

As always there needs to be a clarification on what is fundamentally AI and what isn't. Right now there seems to be a lot of misguided references to things that are fixed algorithm programs that don't meet the definition of artificial intelligence.

 

[retire the banner]

I’ll let you in on a secret, AI is not a fad.

 

[615dawg]

I’ll let you in on a secret, AI is not a fad.

I'm with you. I think the next 10-15 years is going to be amazing.

QQQ
QYLD
TQQQ
QLD
SOXL

I went through a vendor call yesterday on a new AI based product. Like any good product, it aims to solve a problem. This particular problem is a overly manual task that can take weeks to complete. With this company's AI, a user can snap a picture, and the process can be 95% completed in five minutes. It just needs to be verified by a human.

They are so confident in the product, that they have a guarantee that it will increase customers to the point that it covers the cost of the product (which is substantial) or you don't pay.

Its the best product I've ever seen in its field, and this is happening in every industry.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

As always there needs to be a clarification on what is fundamentally AI and what isn't. Right now there seems to be a lot of misguided references to things that are fixed algorithm programs that don't meet the definition of artificial intelligence.

There is no "I" in AI, except the human intelligence that went into programming the algorithm. However, in the right hands, those programs are very useful. AI will follow the same hype curve as all technology:

ETA: we are not at the peak of inflated expectations. I expect 2026/27 will be that time. Then if you are trying to time the market (do not recommend) you want to buy in the trough of disillusionment. My best guess is that we hit that 27-30ish. I'm bearish on the ability to pick an AI platform winner, although Meta is making an expensive push. I'm bullish on all of the platforms and businesses needing NVIDIA and similar chips.

 

[Colonel Angus.sixpack]

I bought a new set of golf clubs that were designed with AI the other day. Supposedly uploaded tons of swing data into an AI program and designed club faces that were more forgiving for your run of the mill golfer.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

There is no "I" in AI, except the human intelligence that went into programming the algorithm.
View attachment 867622

Large AI models show abilities that weren't explicitly programmed. Several AI architects have expressed public surprise over the observed capabilities of artificial intelligence.

Chat GPT like models can write code, summarize legal documents, or simulate personalities even though none of those things were directly programmed.

 

[Colonel Angus.sixpack]

If you use chat gpt or any other program on the reg and feel like freaking yourself out, ask it what it knows about you.

 

[Drebin]

Investing is simply coming down to one question.

Do you believe that AI is a fad or the future?

If you believe its a fad, best to keep diversifying and making 12-15% on Home Depot, Wal Mart and SPY.

But if you believe AI is the future, fortunes are going to be made. QQQ at all time highs.

AI is not going away.

It's not going to be a rocket in investment terms either. Two big reasons:

- government regulation of AI is coming. In healthcare, it's already highly regulated. I went to a seminar where an engineer from Pfizer demonstrated an AI initiative that can actually detect cancerous cells before they become cancerous. It's revolutionary in the cancer research field. Unfortunately they can't use it for regulatory reasons because you have to use synthetic data to train the AI model.
- The majority of company AI initiatives fail because of lack of clarity on what's trying to be accomplished. Too many executives look at AI as some magic fairy dust that you can sprinkle on a function and make it more efficient. The reality, is just like any development initiative, you have to do the work....build requirements, develop integrations, measure outputs and have a clearly defined definition of done.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Large AI models show abilities that weren't explicitly programmed. Several AI architects have expressed public surprise over the observed capabilities of artificial intelligence.

Chat GPT like models can write code, summarize legal documents, or simulate personalities even though none of those things were directly programmed.

I am only speaking from my experience with neural networks in graduate school and my usage of tools. AI has surprised me as well, often that surprise is being blatantly wrong. Consider this, there is research and companies out there that exist solely to poison AI data to force models into providing incorrect results. AI engine's primary usefulness will be standing one up inside of a company where training data is tightly controlled and geared toward providing automated analysis on corporate data. Public facing AI models are useful, but not trustworthy. If you lean on AI to be the expert, you will get burned at some point. If you are the expert and lean on AI as a helpful tool, you can benefit greatly.

ETA: good example https://www.reuters.com/legal/gover...-attorneys-case-over-ai-citations-2025-07-24/

 

[Dawgg]

I think a lot of folks conflate “LLMs” (Large Language Models) with true AI, largely due to marketing by LLM providers.

LLMs (ChatGPT, Copilot, Gemini, Perplexity) are all over the dаmn place and for the most part, really 17ing stupid. They’re only as good as the information they’re being fed and the programming behind them.

Gemini told me the other day that there’s no record of Urban Meyer ever losing to Mississippi State.

I’ve yet to see an AI that is truly self-sufficient, can process independently of its programming, and can improve on its own.

 

[GloryDawg]

Back in 84 I thought PCs were a fad. In 2009 I thought Bit Coin was a joke. Comapanies including mine are spending millions of dollars on it. It's not a fad.

 

[johnson86-1]

Investing is simply coming down to one question.

Do you believe that AI is a fad or the future?

If you believe its a fad, best to keep diversifying and making 12-15% on Home Depot, Wal Mart and SPY.

But if you believe AI is the future, fortunes are going to be made. QQQ at all time highs.

To kind of repeat what others have said, the question is not whether AI is the future (it is, or at least a big part of it), but who is going to monetize it. The universe of companies that took off in the .com bubble is much bigger than the universe of companies that actually made money off the widescale adoption of the internet. I assume that if you bought the right companies at the peak of the tech bubble, you'd still be looking at a solid annualized return at this point.

I think the same thing is going to happen with AI. I think the thing that is different is there is so much investment required for the current models of AI, I think you can feel relatively confident that one of the front leaders is going to be the big winner. Even if an upstart surprises, unless they have an advance that doesn't require major investment to scale, I would assume they'll be bought by one of the front runners with tons of capital. So it will probalby be MIcrosoft/OpenAI, XAi, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon etc among the winners. I guess companies like Nvidia are the "sell the shovel during the gold rush" type approach that is pretty sure to make some money, but the question there is are they going to make money that justifies their current valuation.

 

[dudehead]

I'm with you. I think the next 10-15 years is going to be amazing.

QQQ
QYLD
TQQQ
QLD
SOXL

I went through a vendor call yesterday on a new AI based product. Like any good product, it aims to solve a problem. This particular problem is a overly manual task that can take weeks to complete. With this company's AI, a user can snap a picture, and the process can be 95% completed in five minutes. It just needs to be verified by a human.

They are so confident in the product, that they have a guarantee that it will increase customers to the point that it covers the cost of the product (which is substantial) or you don't pay.

Its the best product I've ever seen in its field, and this is happening in every industry.

So what is it?

 

[leeinator]

I’ll let you in on a secret, AI is not a fad.

I expect Nvidia to be somewhere between 250-350 by 2030.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

AI is not going away.

It's not going to be a rocket in investment terms either. Two big reasons:

- government regulation of AI is coming. In healthcare, it's already highly regulated. I went to a seminar where an engineer from Pfizer demonstrated an AI initiative that can actually detect cancerous cells before they become cancerous. It's revolutionary in the cancer research field. Unfortunately they can't use it for regulatory reasons because you have to use synthetic data to train the AI model.
- The majority of company AI initiatives fail because of lack of clarity on what's trying to be accomplished. Too many executives look at AI as some magic fairy dust that you can sprinkle on a function and make it more efficient. The reality, is just like any development initiative, you have to do the work....build requirements, develop integrations, measure outputs and have a clearly defined definition of done.

The number of execs pushing to bring AI in is crazy. I sit down with them to provide advice and quickly realize that their primary motivation is FOMO. I often end the conversation by asking them to at least do one thing before we move forward. Provide me with one success criteria/expected outcome/problem that we plan to solve for the business with AI. They always have to go chew on that for a bit. It's odd. AI has people raring to go without good reason while other corporate risks persist with clear reasons for needing a tech solution but no motivation to do so.

 

[Drebin]

The number of execs pushing to bring AI in is crazy. I sit down with them to provide advice and quickly realize that their primary motivation is FOMO. I often end the conversation by asking them to at least do one thing before we move forward. Provide me with one success criteria/expected outcome/problem that we plan to solve for the business with AI. They always have to go chew on that for a bit. It's odd. AI has people raring to go without good reason while other corporate risks persist with clear reasons for needing a tech solution but no motivation to do so.

I start with "define AI and what it means for your business." If they can't do it, they don't know what they want.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

To kind of repeat what others have said, the question is not whether AI is the future (it is, or at least a big part of it), but who is going to monetize it. The universe of companies that took off in the .com bubble is much bigger than the universe of companies that actually made money off the widescale adoption of the internet. I assume that if you bought the right companies at the peak of the tech bubble, you'd still be looking at a solid annualized return at this point.

I think the same thing is going to happen with AI. I think the thing that is different is there is so much investment required for the current models of AI, I think you can feel relatively confident that one of the front leaders is going to be the big winner. Even if an upstart surprises, unless they have an advance that doesn't require major investment to scale, I would assume they'll be bought by one of the front runners with tons of capital. So it will probalby be MIcrosoft/OpenAI, XAi, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon etc among the winners. I guess companies like Nvidia are the "sell the shovel during the gold rush" type approach that is pretty sure to make some money, but the question there is are they going to make money that justifies their current valuation.

From an investing perspective, picking a winner will be difficult. There will be major consolidation. Some will just die off if they can't get themselves sold. Many will find out they were on the bleeding edge rather than the leading edge.

 

[dorndawg]

The number of execs pushing to bring AI in is crazy. I sit down with them to provide advice and quickly realize that their primary motivation is FOMO. I often end the conversation by asking them to at least do one thing before we move forward. Provide me with one success criteria/expected outcome/problem that we plan to solve for the business with AI. They always have to go chew on that for a bit. It's odd. AI has people raring to go without good reason while other corporate risks persist with clear reasons for needing a tech solution but no motivation to do so.

It's because they are busting in their pants to reduce payroll.

 

[leeinator]

I feel AI in medicine is going to be huge. I have invested in a couple of Canadian penny stocks that look very promising at predicting health outcomes by using clinical data from all over Canada and the U.S. Well Health Technologies and Healwell are on the right track at doing this. It's very early, but one or both of these could be another Nvidia as those systems progress over the next 5-10 years.

 

[RivaDawg]

I bought a new set of golf clubs that were designed with AI the other day. Supposedly uploaded tons of swing data into an AI program and designed club faces that were more forgiving for your run of the mill golfer.

What are the results? Did they help your game?

 

[Bulldog Bruce]

Devil is in the details. AI is definitely something that will be used in the future. The problem in an investing question is you got to pick the winner. GloryDawg mentioned things like PCs and Bitcoin being fads at an early point. For investing the issue is do you pick Gateway or HP? Do you pick VHS or Betamax? Do you pick Amazon or Sears? That's the hard part. So the initial question is moot because you just can't bet on AI being the future, you have to pick the right team.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

It's because they are busting in their pants to reduce payroll.

Sometimes. My most recent meeting was with a C-suite guy who wanted to be able to pump all of his accounting data into it so he could ask plain language questions about it and quickly look at that data from different angles. Might his end goal have been reduced headcount? Sure. But nothing about the conversation leaned that way. If anything, I think he is staring at potentially needing another member of the Accounting team and seeing if he can offload some reporting to maintain staff size. Not really a "reduction" if it works, but certainly a cost savings.

 

[615dawg]

Devil is in the details. AI is definitely something that will be used in the future. The problem in an investing question is you got to pick the winner. GloryDawg mentioned things like PCs and Bitcoin being fads at an early point. For investing the issue is do you pick Gateway or HP? Do you pick VHS or Betamax? Do you pick Amazon or Sears? That's the hard part. So the initial question is moot because you just can't bet on AI being the future, you have to pick the right team.

That's the magic. You don't have to pick a winner. QQQ and forget.

 

[ckDOG]

- The majority of company AI initiatives fail because of lack of clarity on what's trying to be accomplished. Too many executives look at AI as some magic fairy dust that you can sprinkle on a function and make it more efficient. The reality, is just like any development initiative, you have to do the work....build requirements, develop integrations, measure outputs and have a clearly defined definition of done.

This. I think a lot of executives just dabble in it because they are "supposed to" but don't understand what it is or how it really creates value. I also think people cross over the concepts of AI and automation - which are two different things - at least in my world of accounting and business systems/processes. The latter has been an ongoing goal for decades.

Now executives keep saying we need to build in AI to our processes. Okay...well what do you mean? Are you churching up the the automation idea we've always been trying to achieve with a new buzz word? Or are we going to build in an actual intelligent machine that can read and interpret data (identify trends, risks, opportunities, fraud etc) on its own and save you some time and get your eyes on important areas or documents? Or are we going to buy the software's worthless chatbot and say "look, we use AI!"

 

[turkish]

It's because they are busting in their pants to reduce payroll.

Providing shareholder value is “their” mandate. What companies do you invest in that don’t have that objective?

Forgive me if I am not understanding your point.

 

[Bulldog Bruce]

That's the magic. You don't have to pick a winner. QQQ and forget.

I googled it because I am DEFINITELY not an investment expert. So QQQ is an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) which is like a mutual fund in that it tries to keep a diverse set of holdings within a particular market segment. So in that case it is more betting on the general than specific.

A little further research there are multiple products with the same plan as QQQ. Here is a article from Kiplinger about 14 funds based on the NASDAQ100. So even that has multiple options and some might be better than others.

 

[Darryl Steight]

I bought a new set of golf clubs that were designed with AI the other day. Supposedly uploaded tons of swing data into an AI program and designed club faces that were more forgiving for your run of the mill golfer.

Let us know how this works please. I don't play enough anymore to keep up, so if there are some clubs that can help my power fade while I'm out there a couple times a year... I'm all in.

 

[johnson86-1]

It's because they are busting in their pants to reduce payroll.

It's not just reducing payroll. Good employees are huge assets and bad employees are huge liabilities, adn there are only so many good employees to go around. So everything you can automate is somethat that previously took up a good employees time, or took up a bad employees time directly and indirecty required a good employee to manage the bad employee (which still doesn't eliminate the risks, just reduces them).

Definitely not a great time to be a mediocre employee I don't think. If you're mediocre, you better be doing something physical that's hard to automate.

 

[dorndawg]

It's not just reducing payroll. Good employees are huge assets and bad employees are huge liabilities, adn there are only so many good employees to go around. So everything you can automate is somethat that previously took up a good employees time, or took up a bad employees time directly and indirecty required a good employee to manage the bad employee (which still doesn't eliminate the risks, just reduces them).

Definitely not a great time to be a mediocre employee I don't think. If you're mediocre, you better be doing something physical that's hard to automate.

Sure, but by definition only 10-20% or whatever are going to be great, 60-70% are going to be mediocre, and 10-20% are at the lowest end.

What's the plan for that 70-90% of workers? Do I want to know?

 

[Dawgg]

Sure, but by definition only 10-20% or whatever are going to be great, 60-70% are going to be mediocre, and 10-20% are at the lowest end.

What's the plan for that 70-90% of workers? Do I want to know?

To the mines with ye!

 

[dorndawg]

To the mines with ye!

Some folks sure seem to be racing to put themselves there

 

[Maroon Pug]

Investing is simply coming down to one question.

Do you believe that AI is a fad or the future?

If you believe its a fad, best to keep diversifying and making 12-15% on Home Depot, Wal Mart and SPY.

But if you believe AI is the future, fortunes are going to be made. QQQ at all time highs.

 

[615dawg]

I googled it because I am DEFINITELY not an investment expert. So QQQ is an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) which is like a mutual fund in that it tries to keep a diverse set of holdings within a particular market segment. So in that case it is more betting on the general than specific.

A little further research there are multiple products with the same plan as QQQ. Here is a article from Kiplinger about 14 funds based on the NASDAQ100. So even that has multiple options and some might be better than others.

There are similar products but QQQ is the best known, and allows you to leverage through other ETFs (see TQQQ) or implement a relatively safe covered call option (QYLD) for income (pretty consistently pays 12%)

QQQ is now also the title sponsor of the Georgia-Georgia Tech game.

AMBSE Launches New College Football Series: The Invesco QQQ Atlanta Gridiron Classic | Mercedes-Benz Stadium News

Atlanta, GA | Jun 04, 2025

www.mercedesbenzstadium.com

 

[Colonel Angus.sixpack]

What are the results? Did they help your game?

Only had time to hit hit the driver about 4 or 5 balls in the backyard. Felt a lot different but 3 of 5 were in the fairway and the other 2 were in the first cut. My backyard borders a golf course so I can sneak out in the late evenings for some practice just haven’t had time to go out there and hit a few buckets of balls yet.

 

[PBRME]

I googled it because I am DEFINITELY not an investment expert. So QQQ is an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) which is like a mutual fund in that it tries to keep a diverse set of holdings within a particular market segment. So in that case it is more betting on the general than specific.

A little further research there are multiple products with the same plan as QQQ. Here is an article from Kiplinger about 14 funds based on the NASDAQ100. So even that has multiple options and some might be better than others.

I invested in QQQ 4 years ago and I’m up 76%. QQQM is the hot alternative currently. Lower entry point and smaller fees. Edited to correct my %. It’s VOO I’m up 56%.

 

[615dawg]

I invested in QQQ 4 years ago and I’m up 56%. QQQM is the hot alternative currently. Lower entry point and smaller fees.

I have a mix of 25% QQQ, 25% QQQM, 25% TQQQ and 25% QLD that I have slowly moved almost my entire non-retirement investments into.

Since January 2023, I am up 146%.

 

[RocketDawg]

I bought a new set of golf clubs that were designed with AI the other day. Supposedly uploaded tons of swing data into an AI program and designed club faces that were more forgiving for your run of the mill golfer.

Do the new clubs work better?

 

[RocketDawg]

If you use chat gpt or any other program on the reg and feel like freaking yourself out, ask it what it knows about you.

I just did, and while accurate, it seems to be flattering.

 

[RocketDawg]

Let us know how this works please. I don't play enough anymore to keep up, so if there are some clubs that can help my power fade while I'm out there a couple times a year... I'm all in.

Power fade = slice?

I played with a TaylorMade R-9 up until a month or so ago. Then I bought a TaylorMade Qi10 (it was on sale, and about $250 less than the Qi35. I'm frugal). If the Qi10 is any longer than the R-9, it's only a couple of yards. I'm still getting used to the sound it makes - carbon fiber vs metal of some sort.