Toggle sidebar

OT: Much Too Early Winter Weather- El Niño Snowy Winter Predicted

Knight Shift

Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
85,700
83,255
113
"El Niño is upon us," Pastelok said. "It came on strong here in late summer, and it will continue to be strong and a dominating factor going into our winter forecast."

According to AccuWeather: El Niño is a large-scale climate phenomenon created when the water temperatures near the equator of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are above the historical average for months at a time. The change in water temperatures reshapes the jet stream and, ultimately, weather patterns in various parts of the world -- including North America.

Much higher snowfall amounts are predicted this year. These are AccuWeather's predictions:

  • Boston: 38-44 inches
  • New York City: 18-26 inches
  • Philadelphia: 16-24 inches

 
  • Haha
Reactions: bac2therac
B

Brisket and Bourbon

All-Conference
Jun 22, 2023
1,138
1,112
0
It may yet become a strong El Niño, but compared to the 5 strongest El Niños (upon onset) this one currently ranks 6th…very weak…don’t believe me? Well see what the nerds at the physical sciences Lab at NOAA have to say:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

PS: El Niño or La Niña weather consequences do not fully materialize just because we’ve entered the post neutral phase. In order for the full effect of El Niño to be felt, you typically have to be at least 2 SDs or warmer across the entirety of the monitored Pacific sector…we are not even close to that yet (and yes, I fully realize we may yet be, but we are fast approaching the point when we should be that warm, if you’re going to use the 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 as comparisons)
 
Last edited:
Knight Shift

Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
85,700
83,255
113
mdk01 said:
Last year was way below normal. And I realize this has nothing do with the weather in January and February, but I find it amusing the prediction was made on an October day where it's 85 degrees.
Click to expand...
I am positioning my snowblower at the front of the garage this weekend when I return from Wisconsin. Who's with me? @e5fdny ?
 
  • Like
Reactions: patk89
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,414
18,388
113
Knight Shift said:
I am positioning my snowblower at the front of the garage this weekend when I return from Wisconsin. Who's with me? @e5fdny ?
Click to expand...
Getting ready for the winter weather thread season:



Yes, this is from the Trolls movie. :)
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Joey Bags
Knight Shift

Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
85,700
83,255
113
Morrischiano said:
Global warming has already make a negative impact on Americans via higher insurance premiums, higher food costs and greater incidences of destructive storms. But yeah, cheer it on.
Click to expand...
Higher food costs have more to do with farmers getting continually screwed over and hyperinflation than climate change.

-Home prices have increased by 30% since 2021
-Rent has increased by 25% since 2021
-Eviction filings are 50% higher since 2021
-5.5M kicked off medicaid -27.6M lack healthcare
-Childhood poverty has jumped from 5.2% to 12.4% since 2021

Since 2021--- wonder what happened since 2021?
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: MulletCork, Postman_1, koleszar and 1 other person
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,414
18,388
113
Morrischiano said:
Global warming has already make a negative impact on Americans via higher insurance premiums, higher food costs and greater incidences of destructive storms. But yeah, cheer it on.
Click to expand...
Been loving these mild NJ winters!
 
J

Joey Bags

All-American
Sep 21, 2019
5,175
5,311
1
koleszar said:
You got one too? I got the Ariens Professional 32" 420cc in November 2022. Got it shipped to my farm and it's still on the crate and in the box. I have no idea if it even fvcking works.
Click to expand...
Damn that’s a big boy, I got a 24” king of snow. The dealer shipped it full of fuel. Did a 15 min test run in November and then mothballed it. Put the required amount of stabilizer in and ran it with the fuel line off until the carb was dry. At least I’ll have a complimentary full tank for the first storm.
 
  • Like
Reactions: koleszar
K

koleszar

Heisman
Jan 1, 2010
35,698
55,525
113
Joey Bags said:
Damn that’s a big boy, I got a 24” king of snow. The dealer shipped it full of fuel. Did a 15 min test run in November and then mothballed it. Put the required amount of stabilizer in and ran it with the fuel line off until the carb was dry. At least I’ll have a complimentary full tank for the first storm.
Click to expand...
It's for digging out animals on the farm, so if it ever does snow again, I have a lot of snow to move. Got tired of using the front loader and tearing up pastures. Then having to fix it every year, it became a real pain in the ***. Figured this would be easier.
 
R

RUPete

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
26,846
16,117
0
The NYC prediction is near normal. The question is how do you get there? Is it one big dump or a series of more moderate storms?
 
J

Joey Bags

All-American
Sep 21, 2019
5,175
5,311
1
RUPete said:
The NYC prediction is near normal. The question is how do you get there? Is it one big dump or a series of more moderate storms?
Click to expand...
Oddly enough we rarely, if ever, come close to the seasonal average in the NYC metro. We either go way under average or way above average which averaged out is around 33” a year. Typically we follow an outlier low year with a slightly or significantly above average year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BossNJ and RUPete
R

RUPete

Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
26,846
16,117
0
Joey Bags said:
Oddly enough we rarely, if ever, come close to the seasonal average in the NYC metro. We either go way under average or way above average which averaged out is around 33” a year. Typically we follow an outlier low year with a slightly or significantly above average year.
Click to expand...
Do you get the feeling this will be an above average year?
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,382
43,481
113
Knight Shift said:
"El Niño is upon us," Pastelok said. "It came on strong here in late summer, and it will continue to be strong and a dominating factor going into our winter forecast."

According to AccuWeather: El Niño is a large-scale climate phenomenon created when the water temperatures near the equator of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are above the historical average for months at a time. The change in water temperatures reshapes the jet stream and, ultimately, weather patterns in various parts of the world -- including North America.

Much higher snowfall amounts are predicted this year. These are AccuWeather's predictions:

  • Boston: 38-44 inches
  • New York City: 18-26 inches
  • Philadelphia: 16-24 inches

Click to expand...
Those predicted amounts are on the low side of normal for all three cities (the 30-year avg for Boston is 49", for NYC is 30" and for Philly is 23"), so if those predictions verify (unlikely, as nobody predicts seasonal snowfall accurately, yet, unlike seasonal tropical predictions), it'll be a bit below normal, not "snow" - but it will still be a helluva lot more than last winter - hard to imagine not beating last winter, which was record or near record low snowfall for so many NE locations.

Also, these predictions by AccuWeather are almost the same as last winter's predictions (40-50" for Boston, 18-23" for NYC and 14-20" for Philly), where most forecasters went for above normal snowfall in the NE (wishcasting, IMO - most years forecasts are weighted above normal). El Nino's are often below normal, but it depends on how strong and it being west or east based and other factors - very weak correlations between ENSO state and snowfall in the NE. Above normal snowfall forecasts generate more clicks, unfortunately.



https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweather-2022-2023-us-winter-forecast/1252283
 
  • Like
Reactions: miket007 and Knight Shift
Knight Shift

Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
85,700
83,255
113
RU848789 said:
Those predicted amounts are on the low side of normal for all three cities (the 30-year avg for Boston is 49", for NYC is 30" and for Philly is 23"), so if those predictions verify (unlikely, as nobody predicts seasonal snowfall accurately, yet, unlike seasonal tropical predictions), it'll be a bit below normal, not "snow" - but it will still be a helluva lot more than last winter - hard to imagine not beating last winter, which was record or near record low snowfall for so many NE locations.

Also, these predictions by AccuWeather are almost the same as last winter's predictions (40-50" for Boston, 18-23" for NYC and 14-20" for Philly), where most forecasters went for above normal snowfall in the NE (wishcasting, IMO - most years forecasts are weighted above normal). El Nino's are often below normal, but it depends on how strong and it being west or east based and other factors - very weak correlations between ENSO state and snowfall in the NE. Above normal snowfall forecasts generate more clicks, unfortunately.



https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweather-2022-2023-us-winter-forecast/1252283
Click to expand...
Uh oh, I have awakened the sleeping snow giant.

Where is Metuchen in that list?
 
R

RUInsanityToo

All-American
May 5, 2006
9,404
9,626
113
Knight Shift said:
Higher food costs have more to do with farmers getting continually screwed over and hyperinflation than climate change.

-Home prices have increased by 30% since 2021
-Rent has increased by 25% since 2021
-Eviction filings are 50% higher since 2021
-5.5M kicked off medicaid -27.6M lack healthcare
-Childhood poverty has jumped from 5.2% to 12.4% since 2021

Since 2021--- wonder what happened since 2021?
Click to expand...

There was a CDC driven federal eviction moratorium during the Pandemic that was overturned by the SCOTUS in August 2021....hence significant increases since that time.

During the pandemic congress put in restrictions barring states from kicking people off of medicaid. Enrollment surged over 35% increase to 86 million. Congress added legislation into a spending bill this April to remove that provision and states proceeded to kick people out. Note that Texas and Florida account for about 900Kof people who lost coverage.

Childhood poverty increase is disturbing. Perhaps it represents a conflation of high inflation, pandemic relief running dry and congress expiry of the expanded child tax credits.

Rent increases and real estate increases are typically synonymous. Not sure how anyone nor anything would be to blame for a significant increase but I imagine it is market demand and location driven.
 
P

Proud NJ Sports Fan

Heisman
May 11, 2010
72,487
56,950
0
RUInsanity said:
There was a CDC driven federal eviction moratorium during the Pandemic that was overturned by the SCOTUS in August 2021....hence significant increases since that time.

During the pandemic congress put in restrictions barring states from kicking people off of medicaid. Enrollment surged over 35% increase to 86 million. Congress added legislation into a spending bill this April to remove that provision and states proceeded to kick people out. Note that Texas and Florida account for about 900Kof people who lost coverage.

Childhood poverty increase is disturbing. Perhaps it represents a conflation of high inflation, pandemic relief running dry and congress expiry of the expanded child tax credits.

Rent increases and real estate increases are typically synonymous. Not sure how anyone nor anything would be to blame for a significant increase but I imagine it is market demand and location driven.
Click to expand...
Thanks Fauci
 
  • Like
Reactions: rureadyforsomefootball
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,382
43,481
113
RUPete said:
I think Knight Shift jumped the gun on this one. Hurricane Season prediction threads are a toss-up between Ru4Real and Numbers.
Click to expand...
Nope, I've never done a seasonal winter snowfall prediction thread, since I think they're pointless, as there's about zero skill in them - some find them fun, especially on the weather boards. I do tend to be the one to start winter storm threads, as I started doing them in the early 2000s, but not always.

And historically, I started occasionally posting Dr. Grey's seasonal tropical forecasts in 2013, the year after Sandy, when interest obviously went up around here on tropical systems. While they're interesting to discuss (and have much better accuracy than any seasonal snowfall forecasts), they're of minimal "value" in that they can't tell you where any particular storm will hit, which is what's really important. And RU4Real sometimes starts the seasonal tropical threads more as a prediction contest.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Morrischiano
R

RUBOB72

All-American
Aug 5, 2004
23,385
7,924
0
Yes at some point we will have snow. How much…Who really cares ? It’s not unusual that in some years this area of the mid Atlantic gets more snow than what is considered normal. We somehow get through it… usually better prepared and it is actually not a bad thing. What becomes annoying is reading about what may happen and then watching as the huge 3’ accumulation melts away or doesn’t materialize as anticipated . Hurricanes, tornadoes, below 20 here temps with ice… yeah that’s bad. Let the snow begin.
 
R

RUBOB72

All-American
Aug 5, 2004
23,385
7,924
0
T2Kplus20 said:
Been loving these mild NJ winters!
Click to expand...
And any dimwit who hasn’t enjoyed milder winter conditions around here ( northeast NJ-NY) these past several years is just out right lying . Another over hyped agenda. The price increases in the country are not simply climate based unless one doesn’t think reductions to all meat , chicken etc. production doesn’t impact costs. Fossil fuel and natural gas limits, free money to those who don’t deserve it. Screwing farmers for years is an old ploy. Why does it continue ? Because in too many instances people employing these damaging ideas are not directly impacted. All anyone here needs to see is the sudden change in policy as we approach 2024.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom