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OT: RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY 4-8 INCHES FOR MOST

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bac2therac

bac2therac

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Models are trending colder and wetter and this may turn this event from a minor to a more moderate event. Current Mt Holly snow maps show 1-3 across most of Central Jersey with an inch or less toward the shore. Snow is expected to develop later in the afternoon Sunday and continue overnight. Models have been disagreeing with temperatures...will we go to freezing rain or just plain rain after an inch or two. With such model disagreement there really isn't a consensus yet. Start at the 1-3 call and we will move from there and wait and see how todays models turn out. This could end up similar to last Saturdays snow to ice event although there would be a shift north with the heaviest amounts compared to that storm. Stay tuned



This post was edited on 2/28 9:19 AM by bac2therac



This post was edited on 2/28 11:41 PM by bac2therac


This post was edited on 3/2 11:22 AM by bac2therac


This post was edited on 3/3 4:02 PM by bac2therac


This post was edited on 3/4 11:57 AM by bac2therac

This post was edited on 3/4 4:24 PM by bac2therac

This post was edited on 3/4 8:51 PM by bac2therac
 
R

RU4Real

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

Haven't been following any of the discussions, but this is an Apps Runner, correct?
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

I think its more of an overrunning event SW to NE..Gfs is warmest model with change to rain for most after an inch or so but nam and rgem are colder and thats where it could end up looking like last week with a few inches of snow to prolonged freezing rain. EURO is more like the gfs. Start times for these type systems seem to always come in earlier so watch for that
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

Just in 12z NAM continues wetter and colder...interesting
 
WhiteBus

WhiteBus

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN


Let the hype begin. Local news is already making this a story.

The real story is Wed. 58 degrees. Now that is something to hype!!
 
J

jay_hq

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

Wishcasting out in full force.
 
D

dmd78

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

bac: Thanks for starting this thread. Tomorrow is senior day for women's hoops, with a 2:00 tip-off and post-game reception at 5:00. So I'm concerned about the timing for this one, even if it's just going to produce an inch or two, especially since I have an hour drive up 287.
 
B

BigLou

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN


The weather forecasts are saying that it will warm up next week but next week seems a long time from now considering today's frigid temps and tomorrow's potential for snow and ice.
While I realize that our area has not gotten the worst of any of this winters storms, the prolonged cold weather and lack of melting makes it seem like we have gotten a lot more snow than we did.
I am tired of the cold. I'm tired of the ice on my front steps (caused by the slow drip off the front roof of my north facing house), I'm tired of the salt on the road, I'm tired of the fact that most parking lots have lost spaces due to snow and parking is more difficult in lots and on the streets and I'm tired of having to clean off the cars every time we get snow.
Anyone rooting for more snow now better keep away from me.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

This February will go down as the as the third coldest ever....we still have 2 events to watch adter Sunday...a snow to rain event Tuesday night into Wednesday and a Thursday rain to snow event
 
Z

Zak57

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN


Originally posted by bac2therac:
This February will go down as the as the third coldest ever....we still have 2 events to watch adter Sunday...a snow to rain event Tuesday night into Wednesday and a Thursday rain to snow event
Click to expand...
What was last Feb?

Make it stop!!
 
G

Go RU

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

I am flying in to Newark at 8:45 tomorrow. Should I be concerned?
Posted from Rivals Mobile
 
J

jmg75

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN


Originally posted by dmd78:
bac: Thanks for starting this thread. Tomorrow is senior day for women's hoops, with a 2:00 tip-off and post-game reception at 5:00. So I'm concerned about the timing for this one, even if it's just going to produce an inch or two, especially since I have an hour drive up 287.
Click to expand...
The last game I went to (Purdue?) it was snowing when we left the RAC and the women won. We are going to the game tomorrow, so I am going to take the threat of snow as a good omen.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

845 morning or night...morning fine...evening be worried
 
R

RUMike410

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN


Originally posted by WhiteBus:

Let the hype begin. Local news is already making this a story.

The real story is Wed. 58 degrees. Now that is something to hype!!
Click to expand...
Hell Yeah! This winter is done.
 
R

RU848789

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

Winter Weather Advisories are up as the 12Z model suite trended colder and snowier, which is no surprise given the pattern and the same thing happening for all of these southwest flow events (like last Saturday, which looked like mostly rain 3 days before the event and ended up being a 3-6" snowfall for almost everyone). 2-4" expected for most of Central NJ (at least from maybe Lambertville to South Amboy and NW of there) with 3-5" expected north of 80.

Could also be 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain on top of the snow, especially in Central Jersey/NYC/LI (north of 80, where it's likely to be all snow, freezing rain is less likely). Show shoutd start in the early/mid afternoon for most and be largely done by midnight. Untreated roads will be slick for the Monday morning rush hour, but roads should be much better by 9-10 am, as temps move into the mid/uppper 30s.



 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

This system is weaker and quicker than last week...expect a 1-4 inch type deal but expect less than you got last week which was 3-4 in most of central jersey....timing seems to start anytime after noon with mixing and changeover late afternnon/evening with this puppy probably done by midnight

This post was edited on 2/28 4:30 PM by bac2therac
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

Everything seems status quo...noonish start time east to west ending around midnight...1-4 inches of snow before switching to freezing rain and maybe just light rain for the lucky ones
 
Sweet Pea's Corner

Sweet Pea's Corner

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN


Middlesex County along with Mercer County are now under a winter storm watch because of EXTREME freezing rain. 1-3 inches of snow with 1/4 to 1/3 of ice.

Somerset County is still under a winter weather advisory with 2-4 inches of snow and 1/10 to 1/4 of ice
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

The icing is going to be the biggest concern with this system moreso than than the snow...its going to happen earlier than last weeks so more people will be traveling. Make sure you get out and start shoveling before it switches over
 
R

RU848789

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

Originally posted by RocktheRac:

Middlesex County along with Mercer County are now under a winter storm watch because of EXTREME freezing rain. 1-3 inches of snow with 1/4 to 1/3 of ice.

Somerset County is still under a winter weather advisory with 2-4 inches of snow and 1/10 to 1/4 of ice
Click to expand...
Much of Central Jersey and South Jersey, including Middlesex/Mercer and counties to the south, as well as SE PA, are under winter storm warnings, not watches (warnings mean the bad weather is imminent), due mostly to the risk of 1/4 to 1/3" of freezing rain accretion on surfaces below 32F. The only saving grace for most locations could be that the freezing rain will be falling on top of 1-3" of snow, such that the ice won't accrete directly on the pavement. But where it does, could be some skating rinks, especially from about 4-8 pm. Areas north of 78 should get less ice and more snow (3-5").



 
R

ru109

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Looking at 3-6 up by me for what it's worth.
 
Sweet Pea's Corner

Sweet Pea's Corner

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

Originally posted by RU848789:
Originally posted by RocktheRac:

Middlesex County along with Mercer County are now under a winter storm watch because of EXTREME freezing rain. 1-3 inches of snow with 1/4 to 1/3 of ice.

Somerset County is still under a winter weather advisory with 2-4 inches of snow and 1/10 to 1/4 of ice
Click to expand...
Much of Central Jersey and South Jersey, including Middlesex/Mercer and counties to the south, as well as SE PA, are under winter storm warnings, not watches (warnings mean the bad weather is imminent), due mostly to the risk of 1/4 to 1/3" of freezing rain accretion on surfaces below 32F. The only saving grace for most locations could be that the freezing rain will be falling on top of 1-3" of snow, such that the ice won't accrete directly on the pavement. But where it does, could be some skating rinks, especially from about 4-8 pm. Areas north of 78 should get less ice and more snow (3-5").



Click to expand...
Doesnt matter if there is 1 inch or 12 inches of snow . Once the snow is removed, which most will be done during the changeover, it will be a skating rink as it was last week. As soon as we cleared the lots, the freezing rain took over and there was 1/4 inch of ice when we returned to salt in the morning.

Pick your poison. Shovel before the changeover to help you back before it gets too heavy and have a skating rink after or wait till the morning and don't have to worry about ice underneath.
 
WhiteBus

WhiteBus

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN



Originally posted by bac2therac:
The icing is going to be the biggest concern with this system moreso than than the snow...its going to happen earlier than last weeks so more people will be traveling. Make sure you get out and start shoveling before it switches over
Click to expand...
The possibility of freezing rain is the real issue. If this was just snow it's a complete non event. As we have seen all winter these models are off and they haven't hit the mark yet.

However the freezing rain is the real danger as we saw earlier this winter when the forecast was for snow and we got rain. That lead to big pile ups on highways around here and 3 deaths in the Philly area.
 
D

dmd78

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN

Originally posted by jmg75:

Originally posted by dmd78:
bac: Thanks for starting this thread. Tomorrow is senior day for women's hoops, with a 2:00 tip-off and post-game reception at 5:00. So I'm concerned about the timing for this one, even if it's just going to produce an inch or two, especially since I have an hour drive up 287.
Click to expand...
The last game I went to (Purdue?) it was snowing when we left the RAC and the women won. We are going to the game tomorrow, so I am going to take the threat of snow as a good omen.
Click to expand...
I hope that you're right!

Guys, thanks for the continued updates, please keep them coming! I'll be checking this thread from the RAC this afternoon. I'm staying in Somerset overnight, but it's still a 7 mile drive from the RAC.
 
RU#1fan

RU#1fan

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN


Originally posted by Go RU:
I am flying in to Newark at 8:45 tomorrow. Should I be concerned?
Posted from Rivals Mobile
Click to expand...
No. You should be in the air by now.
 
G

Go RU

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Moved to the 1 pm flight which is on time right now. Fingers crossed. We land at 5 pm
Posted from Rivals Mobile
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Light snow has finally commenced
 
MadRU

MadRU

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Started snowing here in Linden around noon.
 
R

RU848789

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Light snow started here around 11:55 am and it quickly went to moderate snow 10 minutes later - light coating on the ground. If temps were more borderline (it's 26F now) and if it hadn't been so cold before the precip started, I'd be more worried about the early March sun angle at midday - I think it will only be a minor factor. Sleet already mixing in in far South Jersey over to NE MD. Would much prefer 5" of snow to 2" of snow and 0.3" of freezing rain - the latter is looking more likely south of 78 and certainly from Lambertville to South Amboy and SE of that line (could stay snow a fair amount longer close to 78).

I wrote a long post on AmericanWx on why sleet/freezing rain are so hard to predict and may repost that here for people like WhiteBus who like to take unfair shots at the NWS/mets, especially since the last several events have been predicted pretty well by the NWS.
 
Sweet Pea's Corner

Sweet Pea's Corner

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

It's been snowing here in Hillsborough for about 1/2 hr. I'm wondering because of the sun angle if it accumulates on the roads as I see that its not sticking as of yet. Could it turn to freezing rain later without a snow cover?
 
DJ Spanky

DJ Spanky

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Well the radar shows us (north NJ) in the midst of snow precipitation, but we haven't seen a flake yet.
 
Knight Shift

Knight Shift

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Been snowing at a good rate since 11 a.m in Rumson. About an inch on the ground. Hope we have enough bread milk and eggs to get through this.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Not quite 1/2 here with snow for 100 minutes
 
R

Retired711

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Here in Cherry Hill the snow started about 11 a.m.. Right now there's a coating of snow on paved surfaces. Precipitation is continuing, but it doesn't look from my window like all snow.
 
K

knightfan7

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by Knight Shift:
Been snowing at a good rate since 11 a.m in Rumson. About an inch on the ground. Hope we have enough bread milk and eggs to get through this.
Click to expand...
Manasquan too but less than an inch I'd guess. Car says it's 26 degrees. Sticking on the roads at the beach now. Not so much in town. Have to go back out now to work. I'd expect a bit of ice by the time I get out.
 
J

JoeRU0304

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Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

...all I know is that this winter has been more than tiresome in terms of weather. I'd almost rather deal with the big storms with intermittent periods of 'normal' winter weather like the past few years instead of arctic/ stupidly cold weather with annoying precip nearly every other day like the past 40 or so days.


Joe P.
 
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