OT: Significant (CNJ) to Major (Along/N of 78) Winter Storm Likely on Tuesday (2/12-13; much less uncertainty on outcome)

e5fdny

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Nov 11, 2002
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I understand. I really wish the moderators would do *much* more to "moderate." But they don't. This is the only place I have access to your information and, as valuable as it is, I'm just worn out from the constant attempts at oneupsmanship, let alone the gratuitously nasty comments that go back and forth.
It (they) doesn’t need moderation as much as it (they) needs a clean up.

The ā€œtheyā€ here happens to be this thread. There is no need for it anymore. Just look at the calendar.

Event over, thread over.

You should be posting in THIS thread instead. 🫔
 
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WhiteBus

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Oct 4, 2011
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Phil looking pretty accurate based at the upcoming forecast. I am so glad I went skiing in Vermont last week. This is my normal week and would have sucked.
Phil's accuracy rate is just 39%. Sucks for a forecast % but would be a HOF in the MLB.
As of this year the rodent has called for 108 continued winters and only 21 early springs. However, he nailed it this year!
 
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RULoyal

Heisman
Jul 28, 2001
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Skiers want temps in the 20’s as much as possible
The season is so short anyway, and this year March looks to be a lost month
I think e5fdny was lamenting why are people resurrecting this old weather thread but I could be wrong.
 
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Plum Street

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Jun 21, 2009
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Phil's accuracy rate is just 39%. Sucks for a forecast % but would be a HOF in the MLB.
As of this year the rodent has called for 108 continued winters and only 21 early springs. However, he nailed it this year!
Phil is no legend like some are when it comes to predictions
 

T2Kplus20

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May 1, 2007
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At least Phil doesn't falsely pat himself on the back every day for meager results, like someone we all know on this board! šŸ™„ Legendary fail.
He's the Barry Horowitz of TKR:

 

Section124

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Dec 21, 2002
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Skiers want temps in the 20’s as much as possible
The season is so short anyway, and this year March looks to be a lost month
I prefer to ski when it's under 20. 10-20 is optimal for snow conditions. Anything above 27 starts to get spring like. Was in Okemo last week and it was great.
 
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Section124

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Dec 21, 2002
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I think e5fdny was lamenting why are people resurrecting this old weather thread but I could be wrong.
It's my fault due to laziness. I didn't feel like starting a new one but agree with e5fdny that old threads should die after the event. I will try to be better next time. šŸ¤·ā€ā™‚ļø
 

fsg2_rivals

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Apr 3, 2018
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Skiers want temps in the 20’s as much as possible
The season is so short anyway, and this year March looks to be a lost month

Ordinarily this is where I'd tell you to head west and not look back. But looking pretty questionable at the moment.

Check back in half an hour šŸ™ƒ
 

Plum Street

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Jun 21, 2009
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At least Phil doesn't falsely pat himself on the back every day for meager results, like someone we all know on this board! šŸ™„ Legendary fail.
Meager ?? Historic more like it !!
Years from now , they will be reenacting these posts just like Washington crossing !
 

Section124

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Dec 21, 2002
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Ordinarily this is where I'd tell you to head west and not look back. But looking pretty questionable at the moment.

Check back in half an hour šŸ™ƒ
One of my employees and her family is at Heavenly right now. Expected to get 6-8' in the next few days. Hopefully that makes it to you as well.
 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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Groundhog more accurate

Yeah, this might bring the Groundhog up to 40% accuracy, lol, when simple guessing should get one 50% accuracy. Not surprising you put your faith in a rodent, though.

I'll go with modern numerical weather prediction over a rodent. Hopefully nobody here takes these forecasts seriously, as Phil has been right about 39% of the time since 1887; during that time, he saw his shadow 107 times, and saw no shadow 20 times, meaning he forecasts extended winter way too often. That's worse than even guessing, which should be right about 50% of the time and way worse than how long range forecasters would do (about 60%). And with the coming likely pattern change this year it's looking pretty likely the little varmint will be wrong in predicting an early spring.

https://www.livescience.com/32974-punxsutawney-phil-weather-prediction-accuracy.html#:~:text=So how does Phil stack,a 50% percent accuracy rate.
 
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RU848789

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One of my employees and her family is at Heavenly right now. Expected to get 6-8' in the next few days. Hopefully that makes it to you as well.
Yeah, was just chatting with a friend who lives right at Lake Tahoe and they are gearing up for a ginormous snowstorm lasting days for the Sierras, as per below. And the mountains for much of the western US will also get major snowfalls although not as much as the Sierras. Had some of my fondest snow/skiing memories at Lake Tahoe, where we got nearly 5' of snow our first two nights there back in the late 80s - first time I ever truly skied real powder and it was just amazing.

https://www.weather.gov/sto/

Blizzard Warning​


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
328 PM PST Wed Feb 28 2024

CAZ072-NVZ002-292330-
/O.CON.KREV.BZ.W.0001.240229T1800Z-240303T1800Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
Including the cities of Glenbrook, Stateline, Truckee, Incline
Village, South Lake Tahoe, Markleeville, and Tahoe City
328 PM PST Wed Feb 28 2024

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM
PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions likely, particularly from Friday
evening through Saturday morning. Snow accumulations between 2 and
5 feet for Lake Tahoe communities, with 4 to 8 feet above 7000
feet. Winds gusting to 60 mph in lower elevations and above 110
mph over Sierra ridges.

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions with near zero visibility at times
due to blowing snow. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree
limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages.
Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous
and potentially life-threatening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel
extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a
winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay in your
vehicle.
 
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RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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And there it isā€¦šŸ™„

Thanks guys. Thanks a lot.šŸ˜µā€šŸ’«
Don't blame me, lol - there's actually even a thread specifically for Phil's predictions, so as I've said more than a few times, even if there are separate threads for every event, it just won't matter - people will sometimes just post in the "wrong" thread and to be honest, does it really matter?

It's almost time to post about the pattern predictions in the pattern thread now that it's just about the end of Feb, although the continuing warmth coming up (apart from tonight/tomorrow) through at least the end of next week will probably make many happy. But March is often full of surprises even in patterns not conducive to snow - all that's needed is a day or two of just cold enough to coincide with precip.
 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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It's my fault due to laziness. I didn't feel like starting a new one but agree with e5fdny that old threads should die after the event. I will try to be better next time. šŸ¤·ā€ā™‚ļø
Just imagine if we had a "general winter weather thread" that was generally on the first page - that would be the perfect place to talk about snow in the Sierras or New England or the warmth we're having now...
 
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JayDogSmooth

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Aug 18, 2006
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Just imagine if we had a "general winter weather thread" that was generally on the first page - that would be the perfect place to talk about snow in the Sierras or New England or the warmth we're having now...
It was great meeting you at the Maryland game Numbers - although the outcome certainly wasn’t ideal!
 
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RU848789

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It was great meeting you at the Maryland game Numbers - although the outcome certainly wasn’t ideal!
Yes, I kept meaning to post something on the hoops board saying the same, but I just haven't been into posting there after the last three terrible losses - when we're doing badly I tend to stay away from the board...
 

JayDogSmooth

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Yes, I kept meaning to post something on the hoops board saying the same, but I just haven't been into posting there after the last three terrible losses - when we're doing badly I tend to stay away from the board...
I do the same, and that certainly was a brutal loss!
 
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RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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As per the tweet, it's a big deal when the NWS has a nearly 100% probability of extreme impacts over the next 3 days from a storm, as they do for the entire Sierra Nevada range.

 

WhiteBus

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Oct 4, 2011
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As per the tweet, it's a big deal when the NWS has a nearly 100% probability of extreme impacts over the next 3 days from a storm, as they do for the entire Sierra Nevada range.


Are we starting a new thread in an old thread??
@e5fdny is going to be justified for being mad. At least the rest of us stayed on topic of the previous thread. Just saying 😁