OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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That's because The Economist is a globalist publication. Of course they hate Trump.
The Biden economy was a mirage built on out of control, unsustainable deficit spending. Trump is trying to structurally change the way the economy functions. It's going to be a bumpy ride and there will be lots of winners and losers.
Added to my VOO position today. I've been DCAing into this every month for almost 2 years now.
This is almost funny because A LOT of people have been calling the market overvalued for a long time and were expecting the bubble to pop. Warren Buffett knew market was sketchy and didn't even go for the Nvidia hype. All the federal money creation/spending created a junkie market. Trump stuck with the hangover just like Carter left Reagan with a mess.
A reason for the tariffs is to shift source of income and reduce IRS gorilla with carrots and sticks. The non-profits being used as crypto government tentacles are targeted. That sector is toxic with a lot of money laundering and foreign influence going on.
That reminds me - before people feel sorry for Canada - Canada people told drug makers they wanted cheap prices or they wouldn't honor patents and would start manufacturing the drugs themselves. That's why Canadian drugs were cheaper and not because they had great system
Canada blinked on the tariff threats and will negotiate a new USMCA, illegal border crossings down 90%, bloated government getting a long long long overdue trimming, prospects for peace in Middle East and Ukraine rising, and even egg prices are down! DJIA closed at 41433 today, I'll take your bet on the DJIA.
That is true. We didn’t get that capitulation day during the last correction.
Something to think about. From Tom Lee/FS Insights:
The 20-day 10% correction in S&P 500 is 5th fastest in past 75 years. 5 prior declines were similar "knee jerk" reactions that saw gains 100% time 3M, 6M and 12M later. Clear signs of "rage selling" normally lead to powerful reversals.
The 20-day 10% correction in S&P 500 is 5th fastest in past 75 years. 5 prior declines were similar "knee jerk" reactions that saw gains 100% time 3M, 6M and 12M later. Clear signs of "rage selling" normally lead to powerful reversals.
Play 2:14 for Jeremy Siegel response. “ This makes no sense to me economically and no sense politically. We’re going to bring 100,000 manufacturing jobs back to the US. and tank the stock market by $20 trillion dollars in the mean time. You think the people in Florida, their accumulated wealth they done the last ten years are going to be all excited about saving a plant in Eric, Pa, for 300 jobs or 500 jobs. By the way, producing something they could have brought cheaper without the tariff beforehand.”
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This administration is going to continue deficit spending.
International trade is far more complex than that. There are numerous pieces to any given item, if 15% of pieces cannot be sourced then the item cannot be built, or atleast not built without paying tariffs. If the item is built elsewhere even if it’s 100% American parts, the tariff must still be paid. If the company decides to move its factory here to avoid that, the process doesn’t happen overnight and that company is also making a gamble Trump doesn’t wake up tomorrow and change the rules, and even if he doesn’t there is also the chance of the next president rolling everything back.That's all speculation (just like the impact of COVID, which wasn't much at all). As of now, there is precisely ZERO data showing a slowdown. Moreover, tariffs themselves are kind of BS. Trade only makes up 15% of the US GDP. The possible tariffs announced as of now only impact 4% of GDP. This is essentially fear and emotion hitting the markets. Not reality. Which means, buy dammit!
lol they’re literally trying to ram through a $4t deficit increase. The only mirage is the idea this administration is cutting anything of significance with regards to the deficit.
Here’s what will happen - we will cut some very important things to a lot of people, VA benefits, school lunches, IEP programs, Title 9 funding, Medicaid coverage, university research funding, and on and on. You will get at most a “few bucks” in your pocket depending on your tax bracket unless you are pulling in $400k+. Any savings you get on your tax bill will likely be offset by higher cost of goods, and the deficit will continue to balloon like it always has. Unemployment could go either way, there will likely be an uptick in manufacturing, how long that takes to on-ramp and if it will exceed the amount of jobs cut is anyone’s guess, but with UE at 4% and our per capita GDP at $82769 at time of this posting, it’s a high bar to surpass.
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We all just better hope the dollar remains the world’s default currency
I don’t think this will change. The dollar is not the default currency because there is some election of nations for what they prefer to deal in. So long as it remains a stable and reliable unit of account I can’t see it changing. The Euro would be the 2nd choice and there is a war on that continent and one of their more influential members just left the EU.
They weren't going to be able to make all the cuts on day 1. Remember most Republicans are really just tax and spend democrats so they wouldn't vote for big cuts.
The projection for 2025 is cutting a trillion, most of that will come from overseas spending. It's a start. Better than anyone else has done in 50 years.
They are looking at cuts all over, there is no indication that the areas you mention above will be targeted disproportionately, except university research funding, which is a good thing. We'll see what happens but lots of spending needs to be cut so some good things will have to take a hit as well. Party is over, time to deal with the hangover.
Trump Is planning on increasing the deficit by $4 trillion dollars. I’m fine with cuts but the deficit needs to come down like they complained the last four years. How about increasing the tax rates for income over $1 million, $10 million, $100 million and $1 billion to decrease the deficit? There might be maybe one person on this board that has an annual income of a million. I think more people will agree with the plan then.
In the simplest terms it’s cut $1t spending which you can’t really do without getting into things like SS and Medicaid, cut taxes by $5t that will not really be directly felt by you, deficit goes up $4t despite spending cut and rising cost of goods. The party is over indeed.
Unless you’re a big believer in trickle down economics there is no case really for how this is good for any of us. Costs will go up, taxes will basically stay the same for the average American, our entitlements are now in question at bare minimum if not about to be cut, unemployment likely rises, just a matter of how much and we are not even going to have a balanced budget to show for it.
This is the equivalent of the board giving themselves raises right before a company goes bankrupt or they axe a ton of workers.
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In the green on CRWD.
I def should have added to RDDT on Friday, I might be in the green on that if I did. Still down 10ish %. Not a big position.
Not sure we are out of the woods, but the calls for a tactical bounce seem to be correct.
I def should have added to RDDT on Friday, I might be in the green on that if I did. Still down 10ish %. Not a big position.
Not sure we are out of the woods, but the calls for a tactical bounce seem to be correct.
This is somewhat of a silly comment by Jeremy in the sense that he’s missing the end goal here. It’s not to bring back 100k manufacturing jobs, it’s to fundamentally change the import/export structure of the US. The current admin, as well as the prior administration, identified our interconnectedness with portions of the global economy as a potential national security threat, especially in areas of commodities, production inputs, microchips, and pharmaceuticals. The goal is to onshore an enormous amount of production in conjunction with funding the fourth industrial revolution and IoT. In the Trump end vision, the US is no longer reliant on global trade for certain portions of the economy because they will be sourced or produced domestically. There won’t be factory towns employing thousands of workers ala 1920, the majority of this onshored production will be automated.
That said, it’s completely fair game to criticize if it’s prudent to start a global trade war to achieve these objectives, but there is a broader strategy at play here.
So the optimistic take is we go through a recession if not depression and jeopardize our entitlements to simply force a career change for millions of Americans and change to the revenue stream to the government from taxes to tariffs? Not to mention the amount of potential unintended consequences that can erupt by taking a sledgehammer to incredibly complex things like international trade, politics, or simply our own federal government? The downside is massive and the upside is break even after a turbulent period of time.
I believe the optimistic take is that said strategy would be effective and avoid most of what you mention. Techno-optimists believe we can innovate our way out of debt with these changes. Not saying it will or won’t happen, just clarifying the theory.
The WH is signaling a period of transition and are outright telling us we have no right to cheap goods, considering how much they love to paint a rosey picture, no chance they are strong believers we are going to bypass some pain. A recession is likely if not certain if we continue the course.
As for American manufacturing, the factories, assembly line, staffing, or even just the initial investment into those things will not happen overnight or be done lightly, it could take years to get American manufacturing off the ground in which case we will probably be trending toward a Democrat who will reverse course on everything.
White collar becomes blue collar working in manufacturing. Glad I’m retired and don’t need to find employment. Tariffs might be better than income taxes since we won’t need to worry about capital gains and it would be nice to have other countries pay for our taxes.
Looks like Europe wants to play the tariff game now.
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If I can convince my wife to stop buying as many things as she does tariffs would be a home run.
Ray Diallo drops hits on historic sovereign debt crisis.
He says most people alive have not been through a crisis like this
Navarro, Rickards, Bannon, Brat, EJ Antoni have been warning about this since 21 and the "modern monetary theory" ( from a Marxist)
"Bidenomics, Also Known as MMT - The crazy economic theory that spending has no consequences."
He says most people alive have not been through a crisis like this
Navarro, Rickards, Bannon, Brat, EJ Antoni have been warning about this since 21 and the "modern monetary theory" ( from a Marxist)
Ray Dalio warns that mounting U.S. debt problems could lead to ‘shocking developments'
"Bidenomics, Also Known as MMT - The crazy economic theory that spending has no consequences."
Why? The other country is paying.
“He’s actually not implementing tax hikes. Tariffs are a tax hike on foreign countries that have been ripping us off. Tariffs are a tax cut for the American people,” Leavitt said. “And the president is a staunch advocate for tax cuts. As you know, he campaigned on ‘No taxes on tips, no taxes on overtime, no taxes on Social Security benefits.’ He is committed to all three of those things, and he expects Congress to pass them later this year.”
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Well, we’re safe since the deficit or US debt is only increasing $4 trillion after all the cost cutting.
In order to get to this 3 leg stool, it will be a rough time for most people in the next couple of years. Unemployment is going to go up, and the economy may fall into a recession. How does that impact midterms, and the next POTUS in 4 years. Does the next POTUS follow the Trump plan, or make a shift. Too many variables here for this to work out.
When did the WH say that we have no right to cheap goods? The annual rate of inflation was down in February. In fact, core inflation slowed to the lowest level since April 2021. If oil prices keep coming down, and the government minimizes it's wasteful spending, prices should decelerate even further.
While the US is bickering about tariffs, numerous Chinese companies fighting for the lead in robotics. We’ll have to ban them in the US to allow Tesla to catch up.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/03/06...dream-is-not-about-access-to-cheap-goods.html
May have paraphrased a little, the actual quote is “The American Dream is not about access to cheap goods”.
Inflation rate in Feb means nothing, tariffs have been in effect for what, a week? Let’s revisit in May or June assuming he doesn’t waffle on it again. Oil prices I’m not watching as closely but curious what impact it will have on our prices if Canadian oil starts being tariffed or having surcharges added to it.
How are you getting $4 trillion? The government operates on a 10/1 - 9/30 fiscal year. The 5 month deficit released today is $1.15 trillion. That does not augur $4 trillion.
House Republicans released a budget plan Wednesday that sets the stage for advancing many of President Donald Trump’s top domestic priorities, providing for up to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and a $4 trillion increase in the debt limit so the U.S. can continue financing its bills.