OT: Stock and Investment Thread

Joey Bags

New member
Sep 21, 2019
5,174
5,288
1
So assuming a couple months of run up, a couple months well below normal is net even.

Not a big deal unless this really drags out.
Agreed. While the numbers aren’t great, that doesn’t translate into a supply chain collapse and chaos. If what some of these tweeters are implying (max FUD) will come to fruition, the S&P would be 75% lower right now.

And if the 5 of us gavones are taking about it on a football message board, your market makers have already ate the news, **** it out, and started using it as compost for their next moves.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bac2therac

xWVU2010x

New member
Sep 3, 2006
138,419
583
0
So assuming a couple months of run up, a couple months well below normal is net even.

Not a big deal unless this really drags out.
It’s as simple as companies held off on their POs to their factories while they waited out clarity on costs of goods. I would think the timeline for “normalcy” is from Liberation Day to when the blanket 10% tariff went into effect. With sky high China tariffs in effect, those goods will be a little longer as alternate supply lines are established for the things you would see in a Walmart, but best believe that those supply lines exist and will be tapped into. Will be similar to Covid IMO but shorter, pent up demand will pickup the slack for sales slowing this quarter.
 
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: RU05 and Caliknight

T2Kplus20

Well-known member
May 1, 2007
29,736
17,712
113
FYI to all:
Zweig breadth thrust was confirmed yesterday (incredibly bullish for markets - pending any future unexpected events of course). LOL!
 

BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine

Well-known member
Jan 12, 2015
35,770
35,286
113
Oct 19, 2010
176,672
21,529
0
  • Haha
Reactions: Caliknight

Caliknight

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2001
193,405
143,348
113

jtung230

New member
Jun 30, 2005
18,782
11,989
0
Seems like both sides realized that tariffs are not good for anyone. Hope they can find an off-ramp. But hard to do when both need to save face.
 

T2Kplus20

Well-known member
May 1, 2007
29,736
17,712
113
The question is... do you fade this rally?
No fading for me, expect holding off on another GLD futures trade. I think gold will drift lower before restarting its climb to $4000.

Obviously, we are still at the mercy of trade policy from the WH, but the past week has been positive.
 

RU in IM

Well-known member
Nov 3, 2011
2,668
2,130
113
No fading for me, expect holding off on another GLD futures trade. I think gold will drift lower before restarting its climb to $4000.

Obviously, we are still at the mercy of trade policy from the WH, but the past week has been positive.
Reasonable approach given your long-term investment horizon. I would just be selling my added exposure (above my normal holdings in NVDA and CRWD. My NVDA additions were at $95.31 on 4/4 and $89.43 on 4/7. The CRWD addition $309.63 on 3/10. So I need to consider locking in gains of 16%, 24% and 40% on my added exposure. I had several additions to other holdings, but will most likely hold as I wanted to bring back my equity exposure to my target %.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20

Rutgers Chris

Well-known member
Nov 29, 2005
3,916
4,392
97
Ya, and people seem to ignore the fact that the brand degradation is going to have carry over to their robotaxi business.

And while I don't think robotaxi will be a big revenue producer(relative to current TSLA market cap) any time in the next couple years, I think the robot robot business is still in dream land mode.

Your TSLA short trade would have been a good one if you got in when you mentioned it a few months ago (although the short etf's are not as good as I would have expected) and I think it's probably a good trade if you make it now.
A side note to Google’s earnings was their reporting on Waymo which they rarely cover. 250k driverless trips per week is quite the ramp given they’re in so few markets. Trusting Tesla’s projections on anything has been polarizing. But if you follow Waymo’s trajectory and apply it to Tesla, it seems like it will be a revenue driver.

 
  • Like
Reactions: RU05

T2Kplus20

Well-known member
May 1, 2007
29,736
17,712
113
A side note to Google’s earnings was their reporting on Waymo which they rarely cover. 250k driverless trips per week is quite the ramp given they’re in so few markets. Trusting Tesla’s projections on anything has been polarizing. But if you follow Waymo’s trajectory and apply it to Tesla, it seems like it will be a revenue driver.


And UBER will be the big winner via partnerships with both companies. :)

Good video:
 

Rutgers Chris

Well-known member
Nov 29, 2005
3,916
4,392
97
And UBER will be the big winner via partnerships with both companies. :)

Good video:

You’re betting on Elon falling short on his plan and giving in and taking on a partner. That is a two bet parlay that I wouldn’t take 😂. Tesla just buying Uber might have the same odds
 

T2Kplus20

Well-known member
May 1, 2007
29,736
17,712
113
You’re betting on Elon falling short on his plan and giving in and taking on a partner. That is a two bet parlay that I wouldn’t take 😂. Tesla just buying Uber might have the same odds
UBER has all the customers and they can flex between autonomous and normal rides with drivers. This is critical for the ramp up. If TSLA doesn't tap into UBER, Waymo will eat their lunch.

Waymo launched in SF using UBER and their adoption rate was 5x of other markets.
 

Rutgers Chris

Well-known member
Nov 29, 2005
3,916
4,392
97
UBER has all the customers and they can flex between autonomous and normal rides with drivers. This is critical for the ramp up. If TSLA doesn't tap into UBER, Waymo will eat their lunch.

Waymo launched in SF using UBER and their adoption rate was 5x of other markets.
Biggest difference is day one Tesla already has 6-7 million users on their own platform. Waymo started at zero and still took market share in the cities they are in. Their path to scale is much different than teslas. Uber will be fine but Tesla may not need them
 

RU05

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2015
14,189
8,934
113
A side note to Google’s earnings was their reporting on Waymo which they rarely cover. 250k driverless trips per week is quite the ramp given they’re in so few markets. Trusting Tesla’s projections on anything has been polarizing. But if you follow Waymo’s trajectory and apply it to Tesla, it seems like it will be a revenue driver.


Whats the average fare? $20? Thats$5m a week. $250 mil a year.

Not much for a near trillion$ market cap company.
 

T2Kplus20

Well-known member
May 1, 2007
29,736
17,712
113
What was the uber vw deal? That about autonomous?
Yes it is. UBER is the gatekeeper to the entire ride sharing market, including autonomous.


 

Rutgers Chris

Well-known member
Nov 29, 2005
3,916
4,392
97
Whats the average fare? $20? Thats$5m a week. $250 mil a year.

Not much for a near trillion$ market cap company.
T2K’s video up there called it a $1.3T market. Probably a bit high thinking it will overtake all ride sharing but still plenty of room for a lot of revenue
 

T2Kplus20

Well-known member
May 1, 2007
29,736
17,712
113

$15 Billion And Climbing: Trump’s Tariffs Deliver Record High Revenue​

U.S. Customs duty collections soared more than 60% in April, marking the highest monthly revenue haul in terms of dollars in American history.

According to newly released Treasury Department data reviewed by Bloomberg, at least $15.4 billion in customs duties and related excise taxes flowed into federal coffers last month, $6 billion more than the month before. This spike in revenue coincides with the first wave of President Donald Trump’s newly implemented tariffs taking effect. Those include a renewed 25% tariff on steel and the “universal” 10% tariff Trump announced on April 2.

Daily collections — payments made at the time goods enter the country — rose nearly 40% in April compared to March.

While the April numbers reflect the 25% increase, it does not account for most of the 10% universal tariffs. May’s total could climb even higher as the full scope of the tariffs kicks in, Bloomberg reports.

Trump has long championed tariffs as a key component of his “America First” economic strategy not only as a way to protect American manufacturers from cheap foreign imports, but to generate revenue.

Critics in D.C. flatly rejected the idea of tariffs as a legitimate trade strategy, but before the income tax was introduced in 1913, tariffs were the primary way America funded its government.

Trump has said repeatedly that one of his goals is to reduce reliance on income taxes — and tariff revenue is part of how he plans to do it.
Not the right thread for this. Solely a tariff article, nothing about markets.
 

RU05

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2015
14,189
8,934
113
T2K’s video up there called it a $1.3T market. Probably a bit high thinking it will overtake all ride sharing but still plenty of room for a lot of revenue
My OP on the subject said next couple years.

5-10 years from now? Hard to judge from this far out. But TSLA needs to be have growing revs, not shrinking revs, to justify current valuations. Never mind earnings.
 
Last edited:

BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine

Well-known member
Jan 12, 2015
35,770
35,286
113

jtung230

New member
Jun 30, 2005
18,782
11,989
0
Again, not necessarily as was previously discussed in this thread. And with oil prices down 22% since Jan this year, a number of offsets to tariffs can reduce the overall price impulses.


I’m personally impacted by the tariffs. Was going to finally pull the trigger on that Ferrari. But it will have to wait.
 

T2Kplus20

Well-known member
May 1, 2007
29,736
17,712
113