OT: The Summer Weather Thread: Heavy, flooding rains likely on 7/31 into 8/1, then days of gorgeous weather after that

RU848789

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Update on the rain. Could be some significant flooding rainfall Thursday into Friday morning during strong t-storms with 2-4" possible for most, as per the NWS graphic below. Given saturated soils and already high stream/river levels from months of wet weather, urban and stream flash flooding is a significant risk for this event. Be careful out there.

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Further update. There could be some significant flooding rainfall Thursday afternoon (starting by 3-4 pm probably) into Friday morning during strong t-storms with 1-3" of rain likely for most, but with localized areas of 5-7" possible, as per the NWS graphic below.

Also, as for all mesoscale convective events like this one (i.e., localized t-storms), numerical weather predictions/models are still not good enough to predict where and when such localized areas will be. Given saturated soils and already high stream/river levels from months of wet weather, urban and stream flash flooding is a significant risk for this event, especially for anywhere that gets 3" or more. Be careful out there.

https://www.weather.gov/phi

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bac2therac

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Alright, serious time now.
Looks like there's a strong cell heading right up 22/78. Awful.
Big cell in northern somerset and them storms gathering strength in eastern pa which should hit parts of the state between 3 and 4...there should be a decent lull after that but not everywhere. Not everyone will be in line for gullywashers but determining that is luck of draw
 

bac2therac

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National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a
* Tornado Warning for... East central Somerset County in northern New Jersey... Northeastern Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...
* Until 215 PM EDT.
* At 149 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Plainfield, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.
* Locations impacted include... Carteret, Middlesex, Bound Brook, Colonia, Woodbridge, South Plainfield, North Plainfield, Metuchen, Dunellen, Watchung, Iselin, Sewaren, Port Reading, Avenel, and Fords.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
&&
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED; MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

Issued by Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
 

miket007

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Some of the biggest rain drops i ever saw in my 52 years just fell down here in Wilmington, i get off at 4 so i'm hoping things hold off until i get home around 445 if that damn beach traffic isn't to bad going down Route 1 or 13....
 

RU848789

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Big storms all over the region, with flash flood warnings (dark red) up in many locations, including the northern half of Somerset into Morris and most of NENJ from Union thru Bergen and into NYC; also flash flood warnings for much of eastern PA/Philly and into NW SNJ along the Delaware. There will be many more such warnings over the next 8 hours or so. Some severe t-storm warnings (orange) up too, but the biggest threat is torrential rain and flash flooding.

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Postman_1

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I'm going into work soon my ride is gonna suck. Turnpike north to Parkway to exit 172. Gonna be brutal.

Just started raining here in Hamilton
 

bac2therac

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After getting blasted the 2 previous weeks with these events its rather benign weather Imby Hillsborough area with just a run of mill thundershower with sun now trying to poke out.

Haves and have nots with some areas under buckets of water while others got off easy

There may be additional showers overnight but the brunt came with this cluster of storms
 
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T2Kplus20

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After getting blasted the 2 previous weeks with these events its rather benign weather Imby Hillsborough area with just a run of mill thundershower with sun now trying to poke out.

Haves and have nots with some areas under buckets of water while others got off easy

There may be additional showers overnight but the brunt came with this cluster of storms
MEGA bust for CNJ. As expected by anyone who looked at the weather.com radar map.
 
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RU848789

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MEGA bust for CNJ. As expected by anyone who looked at the weather.com radar map.
You continue to demonstrate what an idiot you are, as about half of CNJ/NNJ/SNJ/SEPA/NYC have been under flash flood warnings today, which mean there are dangerous flooding conditions in those areas. Just because your area escaped the worst of it doesn't mean it's a bust. I thought you might have been embarrassed enough when you kept downplaying Sandy as it approached (leading to heavy rebukes from many posters) to perhaps consider sitting these threads out, but no, you keep repeating the stupidity.

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RU848789

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The good news is that the front appears to be moving a bit faster than expected, meaning the torrential rains are now SE of 95. More showers are likely for most folks through this evening, but most of them will likely not be the 1-2" per hour rate kind of storms many saw or are still seeing towards the shore. And I'm personally hoping things start to clear up by late morning Friday so people can do outdoor activities in the comfortable conditions (highs in the low 70s, although it'll be breezy).
 
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T2Kplus20

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You continue to demonstrate what an idiot you are, as about half of CNJ/NNJ/SNJ/SEPA/NYC have been under flash flood warnings today, which mean there are dangerous flooding conditions in those areas. Just because your area escaped the worst of it doesn't mean it's a bust. I thought you might have been embarrassed enough when you kept downplaying Sandy as it approached (leading to heavy rebukes from many posters) to perhaps consider sitting these threads out, but no, you keep repeating the stupidity.

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Barely rained here. Heading out to pick-up a few items for dinner. Another day, another bust.
 

Knight Shift

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You continue to demonstrate what an idiot you are, as about half of CNJ/NNJ/SNJ/SEPA/NYC have been under flash flood warnings today, which mean there are dangerous flooding conditions in those areas. Just because your area escaped the worst of it doesn't mean it's a bust. I thought you might have been embarrassed enough when you kept downplaying Sandy as it approached (leading to heavy rebukes from many posters) to perhaps consider sitting these threads out, but no, you keep repeating the stupidity.

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Why waste the space with a dipshit? Ignore is a great feature.
 

bac2therac

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The heavy amounts were localized in certain areas..around 78 and up to nyc...and then Philly area into parts of south jersey

Much of the state had run of the mill thundershowers with amounts under a half inch..in some case 1/4 inch.
 

RUPete90

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Well, so far a nasty t-storm with downpours in No. Plfd. around 2 pm. News 12 NJ video showed the usual part of 22 flooded but passable in one lane. Not too bad compared to recent weeks although some guy on Warfield Road had his tree split in half by a lightning strike. Looked like someone came down on it with a giant ax. Lost power for a few seconds, but nothing big. Hopefully that's the worst of it.
 
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RU848789

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We might still get some rain and maybe a downpour or two, but likely 1/4-1/2" more for most and no more severe storms (the watch has been greatly scaled back) or flooding. We've gotten about 1" so far in Metuchen and did have a tornado warning around 2 pm from about Plainfield to Woodbridge, but it was pretty clear from the radar that that wasn't really a threat for Metuchen. Plenty of locations have gotten 2-4" of rain where the worst flooding is/was (up to 5" near Fort Dix is the most I've seen), but most of the CNJ/NNJ/NYC area got <1" (and many <1/2"), which is a bit less than expected, so far.

People claiming bust should be happy they didn't get severe conditions or flash flooding and I wish they could understand that mesoscale convective events like these are impossible to predict with regard to where and when, exactly, the worst conditions will be (and where the mildest conditions will be - plenty of locations did get the worst conditions forecast). We always see great variations in such setups with some getting several inches of rain and severe conditions/flooding and some getting much less. That will almost always be the case.
 

RU848789

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This will be very dog-friendly weather for the next few days, especially for the morning walks. My dog (God rest his soul) used to find an extra gear during crisp mornings.
Psyched for the next week or so of great weather and it's looking hopeful for salvaging at least tomorrow afternoon, as the rain should be over by sunrise (except for a few scattered light showers) and we might even get some sunshine in the pm.
 
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Smols

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South Jersey was hammered around Ft. Dix area. Just under 7 inches of rain. Just because you didn't get it doesn't mean it didn't happen for someone else.
 
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CodyRU

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we had a tornado warning here on the border of salem and gloucester country. haven't heard if one actually touched down or not. knocked power out at my office for the first time in 10 years. lots of trees down and roads under water