Obviously if the plane did go down it's a terrible tragedy; however, how in the 17 does a plane vanish like that?
I am just mystified by it.
I am just mystified by it.
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OT: What do you think happened Flight 370?
- Thread starter CookieMonster.sixpack
- Start date
I'm going fire on board knocked out electrical gear. Auto pilot. Crash. I think the turn was done due to distress on board.
Not exciting, but most likely...
Most plausible explanation I have heard is this:
Right after the pilot gives the "Goodnight" signal to Air Traffic Control the plane starts filling up with smoke
- How, well one way that has happened a few times is an under-inflated tire can easily catch on fire and then be pulled into the bottom of the plane when gear is retracted.
Once they see smoke they immediately worry about electrical fire so they go ahead and pull all the front panel breakers.
- This would take out the transponder, communications, etc. but not the auto-pilot or the ACARS system.
The pilots would put on their smoke hoods and try to find a place to land, this before dealing with the fire itself. The plane turned in a nice, calm 20 degree turn which likely means the auto-pilot was still in control. The new heading was going directly for a 18,000 foot runway with approach over water and no obstructions.
- Had the pilots tried to turn back to the original airport they would have had to climb in altitude and handled a much more difficult approach.
The pilot's smoke hoods only protect for about 4 minutes. So if the fire were something like a tire, they would quickly run out of time and would succumb to the smoke.
Even though the pilots, crew and passengers are dead the auto-pilot would continue to fly the plane on the last heading set until it either ran out of gas, the fire took out the control surfaces, or the fire were able to kill the auto-pilot.
So my guess is the plane rocketed over the diversion runway carrying a lot of dead people and continued on out to sea until it ran out of fuel and plummeted into the ocean. This is far more plausible to me than some crazy person taking over the plane, disabling a bunch of systems, and then just flying it into the ocean. And I don't believe for one second someone could fly that plane over land and not get picked up by radar somewhere.
Most plausible explanation I have heard is this:
Right after the pilot gives the "Goodnight" signal to Air Traffic Control the plane starts filling up with smoke
- How, well one way that has happened a few times is an under-inflated tire can easily catch on fire and then be pulled into the bottom of the plane when gear is retracted.
Once they see smoke they immediately worry about electrical fire so they go ahead and pull all the front panel breakers.
- This would take out the transponder, communications, etc. but not the auto-pilot or the ACARS system.
The pilots would put on their smoke hoods and try to find a place to land, this before dealing with the fire itself. The plane turned in a nice, calm 20 degree turn which likely means the auto-pilot was still in control. The new heading was going directly for a 18,000 foot runway with approach over water and no obstructions.
- Had the pilots tried to turn back to the original airport they would have had to climb in altitude and handled a much more difficult approach.
The pilot's smoke hoods only protect for about 4 minutes. So if the fire were something like a tire, they would quickly run out of time and would succumb to the smoke.
Even though the pilots, crew and passengers are dead the auto-pilot would continue to fly the plane on the last heading set until it either ran out of gas, the fire took out the control surfaces, or the fire were able to kill the auto-pilot.
So my guess is the plane rocketed over the diversion runway carrying a lot of dead people and continued on out to sea until it ran out of fuel and plummeted into the ocean. This is far more plausible to me than some crazy person taking over the plane, disabling a bunch of systems, and then just flying it into the ocean. And I don't believe for one second someone could fly that plane over land and not get picked up by radar somewhere.
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People seem to think man can control everything
Not even close.
we are not alone..,
Still looking for Flight 19...
Not even close.
we are not alone..,
Still looking for Flight 19...
I heard that the in-flight movie was a documentary about a mission trip to Haiti. Thus, the disappearance...
Time to bring in Robert Ballard. Its a cover story.
Its a cover story out of control. Obviously its a sub that has sunk and everyone is racing to find it.
They've lost control of the cover story.
Its a cover story out of control. Obviously its a sub that has sunk and everyone is racing to find it.
They've lost control of the cover story.
It's time for the aviation industry to move into the 21st century
and start using GPS technology.
http://www.computerworld.com/s/arti...uilt_to_find_missing_aircraft_not_always_used
and start using GPS technology.
http://www.computerworld.com/s/arti...uilt_to_find_missing_aircraft_not_always_used
This seems like the most probable. However, how do you explain the fact that the pilots already programmed the turn before he said "good night" to the control tower?
I think your idea is most likely what happened, and the latest report that the pilot had already programmed the turn is simply false information. Or incorrect data. It's sitting at the bottom of the Indian Ocean on the same heading they took trying to find an airport to land before they succumb to the fire.
I think your idea is most likely what happened, and the latest report that the pilot had already programmed the turn is simply false information. Or incorrect data. It's sitting at the bottom of the Indian Ocean on the same heading they took trying to find an airport to land before they succumb to the fire.
Sometimes you can't explain everything that occurred in a situation like this because there simply isn't sufficient evidence. But not having read much about it, this explanation sounds very plausible.
Not likely
Sorry for quoting issues, a peeling etc, but I am trying to respond from an iPhone..
Not that there couldn't have been a fire etc, but the smoke hoods (known as a PEB) gives you 15 minutes of time, not 4. These are only used if you are actually fighting a fire, not just to provide o2.
these aircraft are equipped with a full face o2 mask that would provide much more time than the PEB as well as keeping your eyes smoke free.
The odds of pilots having the time to pull acars circuit breakers etc, not making a mayday call, yet the fire not severe enough to disable the autopilot for 5 hours, is highly unlikely.
Also, the similar scenario that was making the Facebook rounds also tried to explain the climb as an attempt to put out the fire.. Nobody climbs an airplane to put out a fire..
i guess anything is possible, but this scenario is not very plausible.
Sorry for quoting issues, a peeling etc, but I am trying to respond from an iPhone..
Not that there couldn't have been a fire etc, but the smoke hoods (known as a PEB) gives you 15 minutes of time, not 4. These are only used if you are actually fighting a fire, not just to provide o2.
these aircraft are equipped with a full face o2 mask that would provide much more time than the PEB as well as keeping your eyes smoke free.
The odds of pilots having the time to pull acars circuit breakers etc, not making a mayday call, yet the fire not severe enough to disable the autopilot for 5 hours, is highly unlikely.
Also, the similar scenario that was making the Facebook rounds also tried to explain the climb as an attempt to put out the fire.. Nobody climbs an airplane to put out a fire..
i guess anything is possible, but this scenario is not very plausible.
Smoke hoods vary in time based on the amount and type of smoke, they will only last a few minutes in heavy smoke.
Can't use regular O2 mask in a fire. Fire + pure oxygen = bad. That mask is only for decompression / altitude issues.
Aviate, navigate, communicate. It would not be strange for the pilots to deal with an immediate issue without communicating. They would pull those breakers as soon as they saw smoke and would not wait to radio home, it's how they are trained. And the theory is they had smoke issues, possibly from a tire, so dealing with the smoke without a serious fire is not only possible, it happens a fair amount.
If the plane is not found within the next year or so, look for aliens spiriting it away to be a part of new UFO programs.
My personal opinion is that it hijacked by the pilots, but it may have crashed afterward. Was playing golf with an NTSB investigator and he said the most popular opinion on the part of US investigators is pilot suicide.
The PEB on a airliner (at least at my airline) are not affected by the thickness of the smoke. The hood seals around your neck and the canister provides approximately 15 minutes of air.
With regards to the O2 mask, the very first thing on the checklist at any airline for a "smoke or fumes" emergency is "O2 mask on 100 percent, smoke goggles on" (I am sure they have the combined O2 face mask)
You are correct as far as the passengers are concerned, they are O2 generators with diluter demand type mask which will not prevent the passengers from inhaling smoke and could add to the issue.
When it comes to the aviate, navigate, communicate. In a multi pilot flight deck, in such a situation one pilot typically takes over the flying, radios etc while the other pilot handles the emergency. I can't speak for the training at that airline, but the pilot flying would be simultaneously turning the aircraft while declaring an emergency. Certainly if there was enough time to start reaching behind the seat to identify circuit breakers, there would be time to make a radio call. (Swissair, Valujet)
And for what it is worth, I am not just regurgitating info. I have been a pilot for a major airline for more than 17 years doing both domestic and international flying.
With regards to the O2 mask, the very first thing on the checklist at any airline for a "smoke or fumes" emergency is "O2 mask on 100 percent, smoke goggles on" (I am sure they have the combined O2 face mask)
You are correct as far as the passengers are concerned, they are O2 generators with diluter demand type mask which will not prevent the passengers from inhaling smoke and could add to the issue.
When it comes to the aviate, navigate, communicate. In a multi pilot flight deck, in such a situation one pilot typically takes over the flying, radios etc while the other pilot handles the emergency. I can't speak for the training at that airline, but the pilot flying would be simultaneously turning the aircraft while declaring an emergency. Certainly if there was enough time to start reaching behind the seat to identify circuit breakers, there would be time to make a radio call. (Swissair, Valujet)
And for what it is worth, I am not just regurgitating info. I have been a pilot for a major airline for more than 17 years doing both domestic and international flying.
And one more thing...
Below is a response from another pilot I know to the article in "Business Insider" which apparently started the nose wheel fire theory. I'll quit boring you now...
As a former B777 pilot, I find the "plausible" theory you published is not in line with the facts as they have been reported. I am a professional pilot with type ratings in the DC-9 (MD88, MD90), B757, 767 and 777 and I served as a Captain at a major US international airline. I feel I have some insight to add to the discussion about MH370.
First off, the idea that a wheel-well fire could have burned unnoticed for over an hour after takeoff is not plausible. The B777 has wheel-well overheat/fire-detection systems that would have sounded an alarm for the cockpit crew soon after takeoff, were that an issue. Additionally, the cockpit is equipped with full-face O2 masks that provide a safe breathing atmosphere to every pilot. At the first sign of ANY smoke, the pilots are trained to drop everything and immediately, without hesitation, don those rapid-don masks that are designed to be easily donned with one hand and immediately secure themselves to the face. After that, the Captain will delegate duties ... one pilot flies the plane and handles communications, while the other works the problem, using checklists designed to narrow the issue down and address it.
While the pilot working the problem is busy, the pilot flying will turn the aircraft toward the nearest appropriate airport, begin a descent, and communicate with ATC and/or any airplanes in the area. While it is true that the checklists may, in the event of an electrical fire, have the pilots de-power certain systems or circuits, these steps are down the list; the pilots would have already declared the emergency and turned toward the nearest appropriate airport.
I can think of no plausible reason why the crew never made any attempt to contact ATC during the event, except that whoever was in control of the cockpit did not wish to communicate.
In the case of MH370, a turn was made, but no descent was initiated at that time, nor was any communication with ATC made.
Additionally, the aircraft has been reported to have climbed to FL450, and descended to FL250 later in the flight. If the flight crew had been incapacitated, this could not have occurred.
Finally, a fire that incapacitated everyone onboard would have, in every scenario I can logically come up with, destroyed the aircraft soon thereafter. I reference the Swissair Flight 111, an MD11 that crashed off the coast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, on Sept. 2, 1998. From the time of initial cockpit indication of smoke until the crew was completely incapacitated was 14 minutes; the aircraft crashed soon thereafter. In this incident, the crew had ample time to communicate with ATC, and was running checklists until the very end. Indeed, the crew elected to stay airborne and continue running checklists while dumping fuel, instead of landing immediately; this decision has been credited with the loss of all passengers and crew, and is exactly why landing immediately is the primary goal in an airborne fire.
For a fire to have been burning from the wheel well for over an hour before detection is not within the realm of realistic possibilities, in my opinion.
While I agree that finding accurate information has been difficult with the Malaysian government's recalcitrance and affection for misinformation, everything I've read points to a takeover event that was planned and executed by persons unknown. And while some of the facts can point toward the [smoke in the cockpit scenario], to believe that this scenario is correct in the face of all the information would indicate a gross negligence on the part of the cockpit crew, and a refusal to follow basic emergency procedures.
While we all have our own biases and hopes concerning this tragic event, as a pilot who flies in this theater of the world often, I am truly concerned at the Malaysian government's reluctance to disseminate information, include other governments, or address their lax security procedures. Why were two passengers allowed to board the aircraft using stolen passports? Why did the first officer have a history of allowing passengers to ride in the cockpit of his aircraft while in flight? Where is the journalistic outcry for these obvious and dangerous breaches in security, and why aren't you, as a journalist, using your voice to call attention to it? Regardless of what is finally determined to be the proximate cause of this tragedy (which I readily admit could still be an accident) the big story should be that the Malaysian government is putting the lives of its passengers in extreme danger by not enforcing universal rules for security and flight safety.
In a second email, this pilot expanded on how he is thinking about what might have happened:
I don’t know what happened to MH370 any more than anyone else who wasn’t aboard. But here’s how my head works with this. I try to find the simplest, least complex explanation that works with ALL THE AVAILABLE FACTS/INFORMATION, and that doesn’t need “added” leaps or assertions or events to have happened that we do not have any info about.
For instance, several things point to an “event,” not an “accident.” The lack of communication, the programmed turn, the climb to FL450 and descent to FL250, and the continuation of the aircraft’s existence as a whole object, powered and uncrashed, for about seven-plus hours after the disappearance.
The plane's ACARS and transponder were physically shut off, by some accounts before the last radio communication from the crew. We know that the aircraft remained powered and in controlled flight for many hours after this point. The aircraft’s route of flight in the FMS was changed by someone in the cockpit, as was its altitude, both up and down. There was no Mayday issued, and the aircraft did not answer repeated radio calls from ATC.
Let’s look at a smoke or fire “accident.” I do not believe, based on what we know now, that there was smoke or a fire. Why? Because there is no indication of fire, or smoke in the cockpit, during the time the aircraft was still in contact, and there is no indication of "fire" behavior in the aircraft's flight path. Additionally, normal emergency protocols train the crew to immediately don and wear full-face O2 masks (the B777 is equipped with them), and designate one pilot to fly and talk to everyone (aviate and communicate) while the other pilot runs the checklist and fights the problem. The plane made a sharp left turn, toward land, soon after ATC communication was lost. This was shown to have been pre-programmed into the FMS by the pilots.
The flying pilot’s job in an emergency such as this would be to point the airplane at the closest acceptable runway, announce to the world the nature of the emergency (ATC) and request help, and begin a descent so that at some point during the process, an attempt to vent the smoke from the cabin could be done.
Basically, none of this was done. This leads me to believe that there was no emergency of this type. For this type of emergency to be in play, it indicates that the cockpit crew would have had to willfully refuse to follow their training and checklists to combat the emergency.
Airborne smoke and fire emergencies are extremely serious, and are trained for by every airline crew in the world. In the wake of Swissair 111, which crashed off the coast of Nova Scotia, we know that a flight crew has a very limited period of time in which they must land the plane before disaster ... only 14 minutes in the Swissair tragedy ... yet MH370 continued to fly for more than seven hours after contact was lost. This is yet another clue that points away from an in-flight physical, mechanical, or other type of emergency.
There is evidence that Malaysia Airlines crews often allowed passengers onto the flight deck during flight, which is an indication both of lax safety and security procedures to my western way of thinking, but may be totally permissible at Malaysia Airlines. The FO had allowed some pretty girls to sit in the cockpit during a flight last year. His captain did not protest. This anecdotal info could lend credence to the idea of hijackers gaining access to the flight deck after takeoff.
To my eye, a fire/smoke emergency does not fit what we currently know.
Below is a response from another pilot I know to the article in "Business Insider" which apparently started the nose wheel fire theory. I'll quit boring you now...
As a former B777 pilot, I find the "plausible" theory you published is not in line with the facts as they have been reported. I am a professional pilot with type ratings in the DC-9 (MD88, MD90), B757, 767 and 777 and I served as a Captain at a major US international airline. I feel I have some insight to add to the discussion about MH370.
First off, the idea that a wheel-well fire could have burned unnoticed for over an hour after takeoff is not plausible. The B777 has wheel-well overheat/fire-detection systems that would have sounded an alarm for the cockpit crew soon after takeoff, were that an issue. Additionally, the cockpit is equipped with full-face O2 masks that provide a safe breathing atmosphere to every pilot. At the first sign of ANY smoke, the pilots are trained to drop everything and immediately, without hesitation, don those rapid-don masks that are designed to be easily donned with one hand and immediately secure themselves to the face. After that, the Captain will delegate duties ... one pilot flies the plane and handles communications, while the other works the problem, using checklists designed to narrow the issue down and address it.
While the pilot working the problem is busy, the pilot flying will turn the aircraft toward the nearest appropriate airport, begin a descent, and communicate with ATC and/or any airplanes in the area. While it is true that the checklists may, in the event of an electrical fire, have the pilots de-power certain systems or circuits, these steps are down the list; the pilots would have already declared the emergency and turned toward the nearest appropriate airport.
I can think of no plausible reason why the crew never made any attempt to contact ATC during the event, except that whoever was in control of the cockpit did not wish to communicate.
In the case of MH370, a turn was made, but no descent was initiated at that time, nor was any communication with ATC made.
Additionally, the aircraft has been reported to have climbed to FL450, and descended to FL250 later in the flight. If the flight crew had been incapacitated, this could not have occurred.
Finally, a fire that incapacitated everyone onboard would have, in every scenario I can logically come up with, destroyed the aircraft soon thereafter. I reference the Swissair Flight 111, an MD11 that crashed off the coast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, on Sept. 2, 1998. From the time of initial cockpit indication of smoke until the crew was completely incapacitated was 14 minutes; the aircraft crashed soon thereafter. In this incident, the crew had ample time to communicate with ATC, and was running checklists until the very end. Indeed, the crew elected to stay airborne and continue running checklists while dumping fuel, instead of landing immediately; this decision has been credited with the loss of all passengers and crew, and is exactly why landing immediately is the primary goal in an airborne fire.
For a fire to have been burning from the wheel well for over an hour before detection is not within the realm of realistic possibilities, in my opinion.
While I agree that finding accurate information has been difficult with the Malaysian government's recalcitrance and affection for misinformation, everything I've read points to a takeover event that was planned and executed by persons unknown. And while some of the facts can point toward the [smoke in the cockpit scenario], to believe that this scenario is correct in the face of all the information would indicate a gross negligence on the part of the cockpit crew, and a refusal to follow basic emergency procedures.
While we all have our own biases and hopes concerning this tragic event, as a pilot who flies in this theater of the world often, I am truly concerned at the Malaysian government's reluctance to disseminate information, include other governments, or address their lax security procedures. Why were two passengers allowed to board the aircraft using stolen passports? Why did the first officer have a history of allowing passengers to ride in the cockpit of his aircraft while in flight? Where is the journalistic outcry for these obvious and dangerous breaches in security, and why aren't you, as a journalist, using your voice to call attention to it? Regardless of what is finally determined to be the proximate cause of this tragedy (which I readily admit could still be an accident) the big story should be that the Malaysian government is putting the lives of its passengers in extreme danger by not enforcing universal rules for security and flight safety.
In a second email, this pilot expanded on how he is thinking about what might have happened:
I don’t know what happened to MH370 any more than anyone else who wasn’t aboard. But here’s how my head works with this. I try to find the simplest, least complex explanation that works with ALL THE AVAILABLE FACTS/INFORMATION, and that doesn’t need “added” leaps or assertions or events to have happened that we do not have any info about.
For instance, several things point to an “event,” not an “accident.” The lack of communication, the programmed turn, the climb to FL450 and descent to FL250, and the continuation of the aircraft’s existence as a whole object, powered and uncrashed, for about seven-plus hours after the disappearance.
The plane's ACARS and transponder were physically shut off, by some accounts before the last radio communication from the crew. We know that the aircraft remained powered and in controlled flight for many hours after this point. The aircraft’s route of flight in the FMS was changed by someone in the cockpit, as was its altitude, both up and down. There was no Mayday issued, and the aircraft did not answer repeated radio calls from ATC.
Let’s look at a smoke or fire “accident.” I do not believe, based on what we know now, that there was smoke or a fire. Why? Because there is no indication of fire, or smoke in the cockpit, during the time the aircraft was still in contact, and there is no indication of "fire" behavior in the aircraft's flight path. Additionally, normal emergency protocols train the crew to immediately don and wear full-face O2 masks (the B777 is equipped with them), and designate one pilot to fly and talk to everyone (aviate and communicate) while the other pilot runs the checklist and fights the problem. The plane made a sharp left turn, toward land, soon after ATC communication was lost. This was shown to have been pre-programmed into the FMS by the pilots.
The flying pilot’s job in an emergency such as this would be to point the airplane at the closest acceptable runway, announce to the world the nature of the emergency (ATC) and request help, and begin a descent so that at some point during the process, an attempt to vent the smoke from the cabin could be done.
Basically, none of this was done. This leads me to believe that there was no emergency of this type. For this type of emergency to be in play, it indicates that the cockpit crew would have had to willfully refuse to follow their training and checklists to combat the emergency.
Airborne smoke and fire emergencies are extremely serious, and are trained for by every airline crew in the world. In the wake of Swissair 111, which crashed off the coast of Nova Scotia, we know that a flight crew has a very limited period of time in which they must land the plane before disaster ... only 14 minutes in the Swissair tragedy ... yet MH370 continued to fly for more than seven hours after contact was lost. This is yet another clue that points away from an in-flight physical, mechanical, or other type of emergency.
There is evidence that Malaysia Airlines crews often allowed passengers onto the flight deck during flight, which is an indication both of lax safety and security procedures to my western way of thinking, but may be totally permissible at Malaysia Airlines. The FO had allowed some pretty girls to sit in the cockpit during a flight last year. His captain did not protest. This anecdotal info could lend credence to the idea of hijackers gaining access to the flight deck after takeoff.
To my eye, a fire/smoke emergency does not fit what we currently know.
I feel the same way. I read that the Indian ocean is 24,000 feet deep in places and wondered if he navigated to a very deep area to go in as a part of his insanity. Only reason I could figure.
If you are asking me... If the plane was airborne for 5 hours as they said, and it changed altitudes multiple times, it was certainly taken over by somebody with knowledge and a plan. Anytime I see anything on TV, I am skeptical as the accuracy of the story, but based on what they are saying I really think the aircraft is intact somewhere.
If suicide was the motive, why go to all the trouble to make it disappear and possibly never be found. If getting the aircraft to some 3rd world country undetected was the motive, then this seems to be the way to do it.
"Assuming" that the plane is intact, yet there has been no demands for ransom or even claims of responsibility, you really have to wonder what the plans would be for the plane and all the ones I come up with are pretty negative.
From the information I've heard on the radio and internet I think it was either
A) Stolen and landed somewhere.
B) The pilot or co-pilot crashed it softly to keep it intact (or somewhat intact) at the bottom of the ocean making it seem as if it just disappeared. (Is this plausible for a plane that large?)
A) Stolen and landed somewhere.
B) The pilot or co-pilot crashed it softly to keep it intact (or somewhat intact) at the bottom of the ocean making it seem as if it just disappeared. (Is this plausible for a plane that large?)
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I agree with your synopsis for the most part, but I'm having trouble figuring out where they could have landed undetected and without a trace. This is a 777, not a Citation Bravo. I personally believe the aircraft went down in the water, somewhere, but not necessarily where most of the searching has been concentrated at this point. Whether it was intentional, such as a last resort act of desperation resulting from the failure to execute a plan, or fuel starvation while en route to a destination, I just don't think they landed.
First off, to get to Pakistan they would most likely have had to fly over Indian airspace on a route that was within the range given the available fuel on board. I don't think they could do this without being intercepted and at least escorted by Indian fighter planes. Again, no trace of the airplane on military radar. At least not that we're aware of.
The on board fire and cabin depressurization theories are certainly plausible to an extent, but no wreckage has turned up in the region, and no communication was made to controllers in the region.
This airplane should have created debris if nosed over or crashed into the ocean, but if a belly landing was attempted the aircraft could have remained largely intact and sunk into the depths without a trace. I think the plan was a failure and this is the most likely ending.