Our best start since the Solich era...
- Thread starter Charlie Marlow_rivals363743
- Start date
Nebraska should be 7-0 no problem with the easy schedule. The last five games are gonna be the test.
If this team makes it to 7-0, this fact should prove that despite the competition the accomplishment should not be trivialized. If they make it there it had damn well better be taken as proof of progress by even the most entrenched "wait and see" fans.
Exactly, Bo was given credit for those wins for 7 years even with all the blowouts.
That Indiana game is going to be a bit scary. Very winnable, Kevin Wilson just knows how to coach offense.
i'm just concerned with coach fitz and northwestern at the moment. don't go to sleep on coach fitz---i would be really shocked if he doesn't have his guys ready for the huskers. i would be pleasantly surprised if it turns into husker blowout. even with all the injuries (suspensions?-can't remember, just heard quite a few out).
I think he was referring to the Northwestern team. I know they had a few guys suspended, but I have no idea what their injury roster is like.
I think we should handily win, as they are not a very good team this year, but yes, they have, in my opinion, a fantastic coach who really gets his guys motivated. I wouldn't be surprised if they gave us a very trying game.
I think we're going to have fun pounding Illinois, as well, as payback for the loss last year. I think Lovie Smith will have Illinois good again, but he's a few years away from being able to make that happen.
Indiana does look a bit scary, but Purdue doesn't. If we make it to 7-0 heading into Madison, I will be pleasantly surprised.
I think we should handily win, as they are not a very good team this year, but yes, they have, in my opinion, a fantastic coach who really gets his guys motivated. I wouldn't be surprised if they gave us a very trying game.
I think we're going to have fun pounding Illinois, as well, as payback for the loss last year. I think Lovie Smith will have Illinois good again, but he's a few years away from being able to make that happen.
Indiana does look a bit scary, but Purdue doesn't. If we make it to 7-0 heading into Madison, I will be pleasantly surprised.
Ok. Thanks for the clarification.
And I think we will all be surprised if we make it to 7-0. But I think that is because we have become conditioned to expecting a loss to some team we have no business losing to.
Call me a Koolaide drinker, but I think we will go 7-0.
yes. sorry, referring to northwestern and the injuries/suspensions. now that i have had a few minutes to clear my head, i may have been thinking of Penn St-----their defense is really depleted!
Redrover had a progress thread last week maybe. Kind of after the fact, I came to the conclusion that some people were comparing this years team to the team 365 days ago. Why would anyone compare to the team at the start of last season? Coaches getting to know players and vice versa, figuring out strengths and weaknesses, new schemes, new terminology, new everthing. Unless the coaching staff is completely incompetent, there's no reason to compare to the start of last season.
So what time frame and criteria do we use to measure this progress. I'll use wins year to year. 9 wins this year JUST gets us back to status quo. And then what about next year, when our returning upperclassmen skill players are gone.
7-0 would be awesome and something we haven't done in a long time. But, progress is more than just one season playing with a stacked deck of experienced, returning upperclassmen. I do think the coaching staff is doing good and most concerns I have are gone. So the "wait and see" is ongoing. Last year, at the bottom people were asking for a 3 or 4 year evaluation. We've won 3 straight games, so now the evaluation period is over?
I don't think the evaluation period is over. We still need to give Riley time to build his roster with his players and then see how it goes. But right now, with the Oregon win, expectations have been raised. We may go 7-0 (I think we will), or not. My hope is that, no matter if we lose a game or two, we are always competitive and there are no more blowouts. Heck, even Osborne only went undefeated in the regular season 5 times. But with an exception here and there, his teams were always competitive.
It's all about progress. How are we progressing? Right now, things look pretty good. But we will continue to measure progress as the season goes on. Consider this the first quarter report, if you will. This is a good report. But there are more reports to come.
I was talking about the historical context of NU not having more than 6 wins in a row since Solich. Getting to 7-0 is something this team hasn't sniffed for a long time, regardless of a stacked senior laden team. I don't disagree that this crew of coaches has a lot to prove yet, but 7-0 would in fact denote demonstrable historically significant progress.
The problem is there is such a fine line between "wait and see" guy and "don't think it's gonna happen" guy. Their posts are similar and their thought process is similar.
I don't think the offense next year is going to resemble this year's offense much at all. Lee or POB aren't the run threats that Armstrong is. However, that doesn't make them statues in the pocket. The reason I bring this up is because if you are looking for Riley and Langsdorf to utilize a QB run game in the future I think you will be disappointed. So I can see the offensive production dropping off some, as the staff is going to have to reinstall a bit of their offense next season. However, I think the defense is going to be tremendously improved next year.
Sorry to hijack the thread. Just some points that came to mind asbi was typing.
I don't think the offense next year is going to resemble this year's offense much at all. Lee or POB aren't the run threats that Armstrong is. However, that doesn't make them statues in the pocket. The reason I bring this up is because if you are looking for Riley and Langsdorf to utilize a QB run game in the future I think you will be disappointed. So I can see the offensive production dropping off some, as the staff is going to have to reinstall a bit of their offense next season. However, I think the defense is going to be tremendously improved next year.
Sorry to hijack the thread. Just some points that came to mind asbi was typing.
I agree. 7-0 would be a great achievement and something we haven't done in a long time. It's just than I'm an entrenched wait-and-see guy.
It's definitely a good start. This is gonna be a high bar, I recognize that, but if we were to win 11 games this year, you'll think my account has been hacked based on the ensuing overly positive posts.
Yep, I also think Indiana will give us all we can handle.
I am interested to see how we play in this "trap game" against Northwestern. Hard for any team to not have a bit of a drop off after beating Oregon.
I think it's certainly possible we will drop one of the next four games. When you start multiplying percentages, it demonstrates how difficult it is to get by unscathed. Let's say we are a 4:1 favorite in each of the next four. That means we have an 80% chance of winning each one. Multiple those out, and we have 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 = 41% shot of winning all four. Just because we should win each game doesn't mean we should win all of them. And I don't think we would be a 4:1 favorite in each game.
P[ABCD] = P[A] * P[B|A] * P[C|AB] * P[D|ABC]
Is the correct formula I believe.
I think the chances of getting to 7-0 right now is closer to 50% than 40%.
Aren't each of the terms on the right hand side 80% in my example? (whether we beat Indiana is independent of whether we beat Illinois and Northwestern; each game is an independent 80%.) Full confession: I never actually took a stats class.
Considering we were 3-4 after 7 games last year, it would be hard to deny progress if NU were 7-0. H*ll, 3-0 is notable progress after a 1-2 start a year ago.
As a 'wait and see' guy, I think that I don't have an ounce of 'don't think it's going to happen' in me. We are just wired different. We don't like making predictions or guesses because we've seen too many games over too many years and we know that there are WAY too many variables to predict the outcome of any one game with certainty. How am I supposed to know if TA gets injured on the third play of the game? Or that the weather affected the game in that manner? Or that ref made that stupid call at the worst possible time? Or the ball bounced this way instead of that? We like to collect data points and when there are enough of them, start trying to figure out trends, conclusions, etc. We might feel ok projecting things out a few games, but that is about our limit. There is really no way to know how the rest of the season will play out until it actually plays out. And don't even get me started on trying to figure out how next year's team is going to do...
Just remember, there was a moment in 2014 when we were 8-1 and leading Wisconsin 17-3......
Just remember, there was a moment in 2014 when we were 8-1 and leading Wisconsin 17-3......
I'm wait and see as well. Nothing Northwestern has done this year indicates they'll be any sort of competition. However, based on our Fresno St and Wyoming games, who's to say that anyone can't take us to the 4th quarter in a tight game? And that's just for this year. Our past history with Northwestern suggests they'll play us a close game which could go either way.
I'd love to see us start to blow out these inferior teams. I just haven't seen it yet. If we do, it'll be a promising sign.
I'd love to see us start to blow out these inferior teams. I just haven't seen it yet. If we do, it'll be a promising sign.
Read my post again. I didn't say "wait and see guy" was the same as "never going to happen" guy. I said that there is a fine line between the two and that their posts are very similar. Each is waiting for the next bad thing to happen. Each overstates the true ability of the opponent. Each down plays any success with some sort of cautious warning of historical precedent. Each looks for the bad things that happened in a game as a reason for being cautious because it just might happen again. Each deep down want the team to succeed.
Sort of. The probability of beating Illinois at home is better than the probability of beating Indiana on the road. The odds makers have a table somewhere in the interwebs that will provide a value of probability based on point spread.
That said, if you are saying the Northwestern game is independent of the others then there is no reason to multiply them together. The probability of winning each, individual game, is what it is. But if you want to determine the probability of winning all of the next four games, then you have to use the formula I provided. Simply put, if you lose the first game the remaing 3 are irrelevant. But if you win the first game, then your formula changes because you only have 3 games remaining. That continues until you only have 1 game. The formula I provided takes into account those probabilities.
I am not a statistician but I am staying at a holiday inn express
I think you're making sweeping generalizations. I (we) see the good and the bad. If an only seeing the "bad" thread is started, it's trolling. If an only seeing the "good" thread is started, it's supporting the team. Well, there's good and bad, and aspects of both show up in conversations.
I've predicted wins in all our games this year. We beat Oregon on a 4th quarter drive, winning by 3 points, was that game a "gimme". N'western is shaping up to be a blowout
It takes multiple successes or failures to set precedent. One counter event does not mean a change in course. One good pass does not mean we will dominate in the passing game. One interception does not mean we will "throw" the rest of the games away.
Probabilities based on 80%win, 20%lose next four games:
Win 4 (1 combination) = 41%
Win any 3 (4 combinations) = 41%
Win any 2 (6 combinations) = 15%
Win any 1 (4 combinations) = <3%
Win 0 (1 combination) = <1%
What? You are just writing to write. None of that stuff you wrote is even relevant. I think you should just read the people's comments. If you read some people's comments Northwestern is on par with Alabama. I am sure this week, Illinois will be a serious threat to Nebraska. After all it is homecoming after an 11 point road win in the Big Ten opener and Illinois did beat Nebraska last year.
My previous post had nothing to do with stats or probability. It had to do with words people use to excuse close games or prepare themselves for a close game against a weaker opponent. Or say the game was in doubt because it was close in the second half. Watching the Northwestern game, there was never a doubt in my mind that Nebraska would win by 10 or more. Sitting at my watch party, the guys I know to be negative about this staff were fully expecting Northwestern to make it a game, simply because they are conditioned to believe it would happen.
But alas, Nebraska won by 11, covered the spread, and are coming home to play Illinois for Homecoming with a chance to open 5-0 and move to 7-1 in their last 8 games. I'll take it.