Over the next few weeks, keep your eyes on the Middle East
- Thread starter HunterPKP
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IED found at MacDill AFB
bsky.app
Shipwreck (@shipwreck75.bsky.social)
IED was placed at MacDill Air Force Base - home to CENTCOM and U.S. Special Operations Command. A brother and sister have now been indicted. One is in custody for accessory and evidence tampering and the primary suspect is charged with explosives offenses and is currently in China.
bsky.app
If we land on Kharg, Iran will not base success on holding the island, they will be keeping score of the number of casualties they inflict. They have had plenty of time to set traps everywhere. We will lose way too many good soldiers. Not a fan of boots on the ground there...
Sounds like we are setting the stage of negotiate seriously or we will take Kharg Island and open the SOH ourselves.
I have no idea how this will turn out but it is interesting that we have the support of the rest of the gulf nations and now most of Europe, Japan etc. Its in everyones best interest that this gets resolved quickly.
My question for those that obviously disagree with this war....Is there an outcome from this point forward that you would change your mind and say this was worth it from an American's perspective?
I have no idea how this will turn out but it is interesting that we have the support of the rest of the gulf nations and now most of Europe, Japan etc. Its in everyones best interest that this gets resolved quickly.
My question for those that obviously disagree with this war....Is there an outcome from this point forward that you would change your mind and say this was worth it from an American's perspective?
Stability to the region preferrably with regime change in IRAN and return of human rights to the citizens of Iran. A man can dream.
Other than that - what else was accomplished? Not trying to be snarky but if in the end the lasting impact was the killing of the various leaders of Iran including the Ayatollah, I would think it could have been accomplished without expending so much ordinance. Heck, the Israelis might have been able to accomplish without our assistance.
Not trying to be snarky by any means but have you seen where Kharg is on a map compared to the SOH? Completely opposite ends of the Persian Gulf. Also, we cannot open the SOH with the assets we have in the region and without doing a massive ground invasion of southern Iran.
We have the "support" of those other nations in that they want the SOH to be open. The goals of the war have changed numerous times and are now centered around returning things to where they were before the war. That is a major strategic failure.
No, there is not a *realistic* outcome that would change my mind. This is a strategic fiasco. We have put more hardline leaders in charge, guaranteed that Iran will go for a nuke as quickly as possible, screwed up global oil and gas market, the war will lead to long term damage to oil and gas infrastructure, pissed off our allies, showed Iran they can hold a knife to the SOH and exert pressure, shot off years worth of munitions, and Iran is discussing charging a toll on the SOH, which is a major blow to global commerce and security.
See…Not true. I provide first hand info on how the war is impacting my happy hour schedule here in Abu Dhabi. Today, I am at Tiki Pacifico, my local watering hole in Yas Bay, and all is clear.
In all seriousness, there were a couple of missle alerts earlier and sadly some fatalities due to falling debris from the interception. But these have gotten a lot less frequent. The biggest issue right now is not the war but the weather. We have had torrential rain for the last few days and half the UAE is underwater. Dubai and AD just aren't equipped to deal with it and the water has no place to go. Got one more night of heavy stuff tonight and hopefully that will be the end of it.
desalination plants are overrated. God supplies all the 
you need. Take a shower outside !!!(stay safe my friend)
According to the Times of Israel (and it is interesting to note that the more bellicose leaks wind up with Israeli media): "Trump is leaning towards a major ground operation in Iran as he is convinced that the country will then capitulate, an official from one of the countries mediating between the US and Iran said."
I think it's pretty telling that Graham compared taking Kharg to Iwo Jima. If you're gonna take Kharg you have to try to keep the infrastructure intact so that getting it back is worth it to Iran - they need it to ensure their economic viability after the war and don't simply wither on the vine so to speak. Can you take Kharg without destroying the infrastructure? Possibly, but that's going to come with the tradeoff of more lives likely being lost. And who knows what happens once the bullets start flying and a butterbar calls in a fire support package asking for a grid square to be deleted.
I for one believe this is him "negotiating" and applying max pressure. He keeps people guessing. Im hopeful this doesnt happen.
It wouldn’t surprise me if it happened Friday afternoon into this weekend. I’m skeptical about how well it will go
If you follow some of the suspected insider trading on polymarket/kalshi, it will be after March 31st but before April 30th.
82nd could get there anytime, conceivably. The BCT is supposed to be deployable anywhere in the world in 24 hours, in theory. Chinese media is reporting one of their private satellite imaging firms spotted the Tripoli at Diego Garcia so I'm guessing it'll arrive in the next few days. The Boxer left San Diego so it's likely mid-April before it makes it to the area.
Combined that gives you ~7,000 boots you can put on the ground, plus the MEUs bring their own air wings to the party. Aside from Kharg Island which is deeper in the gulf, the two major islands within the straight itself are Qeshm and Larak, which might be more viable targets given it wouldn't require putting the MEUs in a fairly confined area and through the straight itself. There's also Bandar Abbas, but without additional ground forces to back them up I think taking a port on Iran's mainland isn't feasible.
But the critical thing is that these units are designed to be the tip of the spear. They're more than capable of taking a contested island but the real challenge is going to be holding it, especially if you assume some amount of degradation in combat effectiveness as a result of making the landing. Assuming you actually do a combat jump (lol) the 82nd would have three days of supplies with them. Conceivably that gives you time to secure the island or enough of a landing zone for the MEUs which can give you another 2-4 weeks of sustainment, but as the force is currently constituted you'd have to secure an airfield for logistics via C17s or run supply convoys through the straight to keep the force sustained.
Sunday is the day to watch. Kharg is a red herring.
This is what I have always thought. I have a WAG but will keep it to myself on the minuscule chance that I am right.
We’ve ran a surplus in production since like 2018. It’s not a matter of domestic production/refinement, it’s that it’s a globally priced commodity and like 90% of the globe is hurting on available product right now
edit: that being said, you’re right it’ll all even out once **** gets under control
Yes, I bow to your intimate knowledge of the US military. How silly of me to question you.
You’re so far behind you think you’re in first
I have very far from an intimate knowledge of the us military. Basic might be a stretch. My knowledge - what there is of it - is elsewhere. I won’t or can’t directly answer your questions. But, no we aren’t going after other islands in the strait.
Look we all know you’re just ripping stuff off Twitter
Islands would seem a stupid play for me. Just because they are there for the taking doesn’t mean one should take them. Unless you like being goldfish in a barrel. I can imagine every inch of soil being plotted on a map for artillery drones, missiles, rockets, hand, grenades, slingshots, and pop rockets.
But I have zero knowledge of Iranian weapons or strategic initiatives
But I have zero knowledge of Iranian weapons or strategic initiatives
Exactly. It would serve absolutely no purpose. It would be counterproductive, frankly.
Obviously things have changed since then but back in the 80s we ran a study on it (I’ll have to look it up in the morning) and the takeaway was “bad idea, resupply and reinforcement very difficult, we would need unquestioned naval and air superiority”.
lmao they're gonna try to repo the nuclear material, aren't they
Listen man this is exactly the sort of behavior that everyone keeps complaining about. You just admitted yourself earlier on the page that you’re not particularly connected. Since we’re doing appearances though, you’ve got a Tommy Shelby profile pic which automatically puts you in the upper percentiles of biggest dorks on the internet, right wrong or indifferent.
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Why are you posting pictures of me on the internet? That is such loser behavior to immediately go dig up someone's linkedin. Yeah dude, I've gained weight since I was in college 13 years ago and have a receding hairline, someone alert the press.
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"Ummm you disagreed with me on the internet time to post your linkedin headshot. Also you're fatter than you were as a teenager"
I love “inside information” ad hominem attacks. They are always so productive.
When you don’t have a viable point and cowardice is the only solution, Ad Hominem attacks is always there to waste time and hope people forget.
When you don’t have a viable point and cowardice is the only solution, Ad Hominem attacks is always there to waste time and hope people forget.
I mean sure they could do the largest contested air drop since WWII, the C17s and C130s somehow avoid getting shot down while flying low and slow over the DZ, Iran falls for the island red herring and has most of their elite forces stationed in the south, the 82nd recovers the nuclear material in less than 24 hours and manages to exfil with minimal casualties while F35s and B2s make everything explode. Trump is lauded as a hero who prevented WW3, Iran becomes isolated on the international stage and then the regime collapses. It's more realistic that Iran has shuffled things around over the last year and the 82nd gets in and out after finding an empty hole and this whole thing becomes 2003 Iraq WMDs all over again. Nightmare fuel is a week from now Iran is broadcasting public executions of paratroopers.
A successful raid would be the single greatest military accomplishment in global history. A failure would likely be the moment future historians point to as when the US officially and publicly lost its status as the global superpower. British Empire and the Suez Crisis but on steroids. If you're gonna do it you absolutely have to recover all the material because otherwise Iran is going to speed rush a bomb to stop the US from ever launching another raid again.