Today's update on the likely coming pattern from John Homenuk who got his start as a teenager on the old EasternUS Weather board as earthlight and grew up to be a damn good meteorologist who runs NY Metro Weather now:
https://x.com/nymetrowx
As he and all the other respected non-hypester mets are saying, a pattern like this is certainly much more favorable for cold and snow in our area than almost any other pattern, but there's no guarantee the pattern being talked about for bigger storms in 7+ days is going to evolve as forecast now and even if it does there's still no guarantee that we're going to get a major snowstorm, but this kind of pattern has delivered a disproportionate number of major snowstorms in the past, so there's that. This is all probabilistic forecasting where uncertainty is inherent in the models and forecasts. The biggest indicator to me is that the Euro, CMC and GFS ensemble forecasts out to 15 days are showing anomalously high snowfall forecasts -again, not a guarantee, but a strong indicator.
