Poll...How many wins in SEC tourney are needed for a NCAA tourney birth?
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I think we're about 80% in right now. I'm not saying I agree, but I think that's how it sits right now. There's a lot of ****** teams out there right now on the bubble. We did well OOC so I think we get in. We got screwed in 2010 so I feel like it's our turn to get some favoritism.
My estimates:<div>
</div><div>Win 0: 25%</div><div>Win 1: 67%</div><div>Win 2: 90%</div><div>Win 3: 99%</div><div>Win 4: 100%</div>
</div><div>Win 0: 25%</div><div>Win 1: 67%</div><div>Win 2: 90%</div><div>Win 3: 99%</div><div>Win 4: 100%</div>
RPI around 60. Vandy is our only decent win: Texas A&M is awful, West Virginia and Alabama are probably double digit seeds and Arizona is unlikely to make the tournament.<div>
</div><div>Overall, we're in right now, but with a loss to Georgia (yet another sub-100 loss), our RPI will drop another 10 spots, and our overall resume will be very weak. That's not even factoring in potential bid stealers in other conference tournaments (or our own - Tennessee or even Ole Miss) or the fact that some other bubble teams won't choke in the first game of their conference tournaments.</div><div>
</div><div>If we lose to Georgia, we won't make the NCAA Tournament. Book it. Our resume will be awful.</div><div>
</div><div>If we lose to Vanderbilt, the chances are over 50%, but still nowhere close to 100%. Our resume still won't be great.</div>
</div><div>Overall, we're in right now, but with a loss to Georgia (yet another sub-100 loss), our RPI will drop another 10 spots, and our overall resume will be very weak. That's not even factoring in potential bid stealers in other conference tournaments (or our own - Tennessee or even Ole Miss) or the fact that some other bubble teams won't choke in the first game of their conference tournaments.</div><div>
</div><div>If we lose to Georgia, we won't make the NCAA Tournament. Book it. Our resume will be awful.</div><div>
</div><div>If we lose to Vanderbilt, the chances are over 50%, but still nowhere close to 100%. Our resume still won't be great.</div>
..we don't deserve a bid.
Playing UGA is a revenge game.
I'm going to go out on a limb here & say that Thurs., unlike the game @ the Hump, guarding Caldwell-Pope will be a top priority.
Playing UGA is a revenge game.
I'm going to go out on a limb here & say that Thurs., unlike the game @ the Hump, guarding Caldwell-Pope will be a top priority.
According to WN, our RPI is 65, which is worse than I realized. A win over Georgia and a loss to Vanderbilt will make it a bit worse, pushing 70. At that point, we would be one of the worst RPI teams to ever get an at large bid. Granted, the tournament is 3 at large spots bigger than it used to be, but our resume just wouldn't be that strong.<div>
</div><div>If we lose to Vandy, we'll be 1-1 against Vandy (26), 1-1 against Alabama (32), 1-1 against Ole Miss (58 and likely better than us), and 1-0 against West Virginia (44),Tennessee (75, but potentially better than us by Saturday) and Arizona (76). That's probably 3 wins over tournament teams and 3 more over teams that have a shot to make it but probably won't.</div><div>
</div><div>Add to that losses againstArkansas (99), LSU (89), Georgia (111), and Auburn (141). Our resume isn't horrendous or anything (all of the bubble teams have weak ones), but it's crazy to call it a "certainty." I'm not even feeling confident about my 67% prediction anymore.</div><div>
</div><div>If we beat Vandy, and I think our chances are 90%. Still not certain, but very likely.</div>
</div><div>If we lose to Vandy, we'll be 1-1 against Vandy (26), 1-1 against Alabama (32), 1-1 against Ole Miss (58 and likely better than us), and 1-0 against West Virginia (44),Tennessee (75, but potentially better than us by Saturday) and Arizona (76). That's probably 3 wins over tournament teams and 3 more over teams that have a shot to make it but probably won't.</div><div>
</div><div>Add to that losses againstArkansas (99), LSU (89), Georgia (111), and Auburn (141). Our resume isn't horrendous or anything (all of the bubble teams have weak ones), but it's crazy to call it a "certainty." I'm not even feeling confident about my 67% prediction anymore.</div><div>
</div><div>If we beat Vandy, and I think our chances are 90%. Still not certain, but very likely.</div>
Knock-out game. Right now we are considered a tournament team. If the season ended right now we are in. If we were playing on Friday we'd be in. But, lose to a bottom feeder (for the second time I might add) on Thursday and its over as it should be.
We really need to apply a royal butt whuppin to UGA. If we can't do that I have my doubts about doing much in the dance. Just looking at our performance against our side of the bracket is so telling about the Jeckyl/Hyde season we've had. We are 2-0 vs the top two seeds with one of those wins coming on the road. But we are 2-3 against the bottom three losing to the lowest seed in the Hump!
We really need to apply a royal butt whuppin to UGA. If we can't do that I have my doubts about doing much in the dance. Just looking at our performance against our side of the bracket is so telling about the Jeckyl/Hyde season we've had. We are 2-0 vs the top two seeds with one of those wins coming on the road. But we are 2-3 against the bottom three losing to the lowest seed in the Hump!
And you didn't seem too concerned with our chances even with a loss. You said "Not sure why you are all thinking we need to win a game."
If we lose to Georgia, our RPI will be in the 70s. No way we have an 80% chance (as you say) with that.
If we lose to Georgia, our RPI will be in the 70s. No way we have an 80% chance (as you say) with that.
we definitely don't need that to happen. Win that one and we are OK because if we lose the next one it will be to Vandy which is a quality team.
The experts thought we were in two wins ago at the low point of the season. I trust these experts more than general hearsay and conjecture. The experts make mistakes, but it is their job to predict the bracket.<div>
</div><div>And I really you are wrong about our RPI. When we beat UGA and lose to Nashville (most likely scenario), our RPI will be higher than it is at the moment. You don't get penalized for losing to good teams. Hell, RPIs often increase after a loss to a good team.</div>
</div><div>And I really you are wrong about our RPI. When we beat UGA and lose to Nashville (most likely scenario), our RPI will be higher than it is at the moment. You don't get penalized for losing to good teams. Hell, RPIs often increase after a loss to a good team.</div>
I think we're in. I didn't think so after the 5 losses in a row, but one squeaky win and one win in which we looked like a Top 10 team got us in, I think. We played a very good game against UK, but otherwise we should have won the other 4 games.<div>
</div><div>Beating Georgia Thursday night should seal the deal.</div>
</div><div>Beating Georgia Thursday night should seal the deal.</div>
I need to change my vote after listening to interviews with bubble experts all day. I felt comfortable with a win over GA. Now I'm thinking any combination of losing to GA, UT, or OM will be bad news for us. UT and OM are both on the bubble and a head to head win over us in the tourney could knock us out and put them in.