Here was my rationale on placing the bet and how I think the season will turn out.
I had Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State is definite losses. I had Oregon as a likely loss with a chance to get an unexpected win home. That was four losses, so 8-4 was my plan.
Those all still remain the case in my projection. Now, after watching Nebraska play and our upcoming competition, I'll rank the toughest remaining games (not counting the losses I've already accounted for.)
1. @ Purdue
2. Iowa
3. Minnesota
4. Northwestern
Do I hope Nebraska goes clean in those four games? Absolutely. Do I see a hiccup in there, unfortunately, yes, I do.
If you're asking me to predict which ONE of those four games is the most likely loss, I probably lean toward @ Purdue primarily because it's on the road, they've played us pretty well in the last couple of seasons and their offense most resembles the offense we've struggled against.