Possible Post Season
- Thread starter Old Dawg
- Start date
If we take 1/3 from Ole Miss, and sweep Mizzou we are probably in. If we take 2/3 and then sweep we definitely in.
4 wins over the next 2 weekends should get us in. It’s pretty typical for a 14-16 sec team to get in. As long as we don’t get swept by OM, 4 wins seems achievable.
Current RPI of 33. Odds are good. (via Warren Nolan.)
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I think if we win 4 SEC including the SEC tournament we’re borderline. 5+ and we’re in
I think you've all lost your minds for even talking about this out loud, or rather typing it out loud.
I will preface this by saying I have no clue, but it seems like sweeping the team that is currently tied for 12th in the SEC standings has a lot of people suddenly optimistic.
If sweeping the team that is 12th in the SEC, sweeping the team that is currently on whath I would assume is a historic 0-24 in conference right now, and taking one game from a team that is a respectable but not gaudy 13-11 in conference will really get us into the tournament, I would think people were overly despondent about the state of the season. That's not too far off what I would have expected us to do if we hadn't fired Lemonis. If I had to bet, I'd probably have bet dropping one v UK, dropping two at UM, and then sweeping Mizzou and missing the tournament.
ETA: That said, good on whoever made the decision to go ahead and sack Lemonis. If everybody is correct about our chances of making a regional, we had a real risk of backing in and then being in an awkward position as far as firing him. Firing him before some winnable games at the end of the season avoids that and makes it look like we got a boost from firing him and makes it look like we're not in such a bad position talent wise, he had just lost the team.
If sweeping the team that is 12th in the SEC, sweeping the team that is currently on whath I would assume is a historic 0-24 in conference right now, and taking one game from a team that is a respectable but not gaudy 13-11 in conference will really get us into the tournament, I would think people were overly despondent about the state of the season. That's not too far off what I would have expected us to do if we hadn't fired Lemonis. If I had to bet, I'd probably have bet dropping one v UK, dropping two at UM, and then sweeping Mizzou and missing the tournament.
ETA: That said, good on whoever made the decision to go ahead and sack Lemonis. If everybody is correct about our chances of making a regional, we had a real risk of backing in and then being in an awkward position as far as firing him. Firing him before some winnable games at the end of the season avoids that and makes it look like we got a boost from firing him and makes it look like we're not in such a bad position talent wise, he had just lost the team.
50/50 - winning 4 of the last 6 will get us in the tourney, 3 out of 6 probably requires a couple of wins in Hoover. Recent History says we can 17 up a Missouri series especially on the road.
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We ain’t sweeping Mizzou, you can take dat shiznit to da bank
There’s not a definitive magic win number, but in general we need 15 regular season SEC wins to feel safe. If we take 2 of 3 from OM and 2 of 3 from Mizzou, that’s not a scenario anyone should feel good about with 14 wins….because we’d add a horrible loss to a glorified Sun Belt team and basically just hold serve at home against a middling OM team. Sweeping Mizzou and only taking 1 of 3 from OM would be a little bit better, but not much.
In general, I think we really need 5-1 down the stretch to feel safe. It sucks that we even have to play Missouri at all, honestly. If you told me we’d take 2 of 3 against OM this weekend, I’d just as soon take our chances with a 12-15 SEC record plus whatever we get in Hoover.
In general, I think we really need 5-1 down the stretch to feel safe. It sucks that we even have to play Missouri at all, honestly. If you told me we’d take 2 of 3 against OM this weekend, I’d just as soon take our chances with a 12-15 SEC record plus whatever we get in Hoover.
I think Selmon may have been looking at the schedule when he fired Lemonis when he did. He had to go.
I think we need 5 more SEC wins counting the tournament. As of today, I think we get South Carolina in 1st round. And I think 5 wins is very achievable.
Took a look at the previous 4 seasons. Every team with a 14-16 record or better from the SEC has gotten in. 6 of 8 teams with a 13-17 record have gotten in and Bama got in one year with a 12-17 record. I’m sure there can be exceptions but seems like 14-16 gets you in.
Me neither all the way to the championship 3rd game
I honestly feel good about this weekend's home series against Ole Miss. We have owned this series for years and they usually find a way to come to Starkville and **** the bed. If we can take 2/3 against UM and 2/3 against Missouri we should be in. Our RPI just moved up 10 spots to #32 after the UK sweep. 4/6 games to finish the season should move us up a few more spots into the upper 20's, even if we drop one on the road to a terrible Missouri team.
That type of finish should move us off the "last 4 in" line and get us a solid 3 seed somewhere. If we **** the bed and go 2/6 to finish then we are probably out.
That type of finish should move us off the "last 4 in" line and get us a solid 3 seed somewhere. If we **** the bed and go 2/6 to finish then we are probably out.
Mizzou has our number under Lemonis. Maybe this time we'll get them back and sweep them!
You have to take that data with a grain of salt.
This is a totally new era and a new scheduling platform for baseball with UT and OU on board. It also just happens to be the year that has the worst baseball team in SEC history, and we play them in our final series.
Old format - there are 13 other teams. You play 10 of the 13. Any of the 13 can beat you on any given day. Impossible to avoid the strength of the league as a whole and get at or near .500 unless you earn it.
New format - there are 15 other teams, you only play 10 of the 15 teams. There are currently 7 firm hosts, with Alabama currently looking likely as an 8th. Ole Miss and OU possibly able to make 9 hosts if one of them finishes strong. Of the 7 firm hosts, MSU only played 3 of them. Of the 5 teams out of hosting contention (bottom of the league, pretty much), MSU plays 4 of them. They also play Mizzou, which essentially means they only play a 27-game SEC schedule.
Go check the Quad 1 record of all those previous 14 win SEC teams, and compare it to ours this year. What you’ll find is that they all have 8-10 wins because of schedule strength. We currently have 5. Also go check the RPI’s of those teams and you’ll find they all finished in Top 30 or thereabouts. We don’t have a path to doing that. There are 2 weeks left in the season, and we have exactly one series win over a team that is expected to make the field currently. The resume just isn’t there for us to feel good about 14 wins getting us in.
If the committee starts disregarding series sweeps against Missouri as SEC wins, all of a sudden the resumes of Ole Miss, Florida, Oklahoma, & Alabama don't look that strong either.
Ole Miss - 12 Quad 1 wins
Florida - 9 Quad 1 wins
Oklahoma - 8 Quad 1 wins
Alabama - 11 Quad 1 wins
MSU - 5 Quad 1 wins
It’s not about disregarding the series sweep. The issue in MSU’s case is we need quality wins, and there’s simply no opportunity to get them there in Columbia. You are normally assured a Q1 win with any road win in the SEC, because teams are almost always in the Top 60 of RPI, but not this year. Any loss to Mizzou might end up being Quad 3 loss, which is insane to think about for a road game against an SEC team.
All the other teams mentioned lost the same opportunity when they played Mizzou, but they have that quality win bird in hand already. Ole Miss series is our last assured Q1 opportunity, and its not even guaranteed to stay that way if they somehow fall out of the Top 25.
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While all of what you say is true, I am certainly more optimistic than I would be if we had lost 2 of 3 or gotten swept by the currently tied for #12 team, which is where we were headed before last week.
I think we take 2 this weekend, then sweep Missouri. RPI will stay in the mid 30s, which might get us a #2 seed. Worst case, we only win 1 this weekend and drop a game to Missouri, in which casw
the real shame in this season is we’ve wasted the easiest sec schedule we’re ever gonna get.
d1 baseball projections currently have us projected 3 seed in the Tallahassee regional. We've had some success there before...
State loss several games by one run when they held the lead by three. Taking your pitch hitter Sullivan out of the game to get a faster runner on base in the 6th inning didn't make sense to me. The guy was one of your best reliable hitters and in the worst case he gets one more at bat in the 9th when you really need him. Also seems like he left pitchers in too long and took some out too soon. Those are just a few examples, but he made a lot of bad in game coaching decisions. Hell, I am not a coach, but I am positive in saying if he was the head coach this past weekend, we would have loss the second or third game, possibly both. Firing him was a good decision.
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I think a 2 seed only helps us if by some crazy chance we win the Regional we’re in and who we’re paired up with for a Super loses their Regional to a 3 or 2 seed and we get to host the SR.
That’s a lot of good luck to happen but it has before.
I do think we have to win 2, maybe even all three vs OM and definitely sweep MO to be considered for a 2 seed though.
May even have to win 2 in the SEC Trny.
That’s a lot of good luck to happen but it has before.
I do think we have to win 2, maybe even all three vs OM and definitely sweep MO to be considered for a 2 seed though.
May even have to win 2 in the SEC Trny.
I'm going to let you guys in on a little secret. We will take 2 out of 3 from OM and then lose the series to Mizz.
was just going to post this. We'll win the OM series and think we've made it then have a massive letdown against Mizzou.