Potentially big severe threat Friday / Saturday

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Still a little early to talk specifics but the models have been on this for several days now. All hazards look possible including tornadoes.

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Robot or human?

 

[Anon1728174187]

That really stinks! ”BIG” weekend in Starkville. Playing University of Texas. Family driving in from Ft.Worth Tx. Please update when we get closer.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

That really stinks! ”BIG” weekend in Starkville. Playing University of Texas. Family driving in from Ft.Worth Tx. Please update when we get closer.

It really does.

 

[anon1758050382]

I hope we get in some games with decent weather. My kids will see their first game at the Dude.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Hearing this in my circles.

 

[HotMop]

60 mph winds expected Friday in West Texas, we are going to have some major Haboobs.

 

[Bulldog45]

How’s it looking weather Dawgs? Have plans to stay Fri/Sat in Starkville but based on what the tv weatherman is telling me right now it may be a get up and come home Saturday morning kind of weekend. Thanks.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

While there are still a couple of questions regarding Saturday, if things trend as they currently look, Saturday will be a high impact significant event. There are a couple of things that could reduce the impact should they happen, but for right now it appears they want and the storm Saturday will be moving into an absolute textbook environment for severe weather including tornadoes...some of which could be strong. The main threat area right now are the parts of MS southeast of the Natchez Trace and south of Highway 82 and then most of Alabama.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

While Friday is looking like it could be a rough day, right now Saturday is looking like the real deal. Take any warnings extremely seriously. There's a couple of possible failure modes that could reduce the threat, but if they don't happen (and they're not expected to), Saturday is going to be a really bad day.

 

[8dog]

While Friday is looking like it could be a rough day, right now Saturday is looking like the real deal. Take any warnings extremely seriously. There's a couple of possible failure modes that could reduce the threat, but if they don't happen (and they're not expected to), Saturday is going to be a really bad day.

Trying to go to the game Friday and get back early to the Jackson area Saturday morning…possible?

 

[thatsbaseball]

While Friday is looking like it could be a rough day, right now Saturday is looking like the real deal. Take any warnings extremely seriously. There's a couple of possible failure modes that could reduce the threat, but if they don't happen (and they're not expected to), Saturday is going to be a really bad day.

Looks like a marathon chase. It's going to go on a while.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Trying to go to the game Friday and get back early to the Jackson area Saturday morning…possible?

Going to be hard to say. I'm not too sure on timing Friday yet, but Saturday could be multiple rounds all day with prime time being from 1:00-7:00.

 

[RotorHead]

Regardless of moisture being wicked out of the gulf the past week or so, still enough moisture and high dew points to meet the incoming front to cause a significant event. MIL was talking about traveling to HSV, trying to talk her out of that. I plan to stay close to home sat morning and be at home sat at lunch….which is early on Saturdays. Y’all stay safe out there.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

The lingering question is how quick the morning rain moves out to give the atmosphere time to reload. Current thinking is the overnight and early morning storms will lay down boundary layers which will give the afternoon storms something to latch into. They are not expected to dry the air out as dew points should remain in the mid to upper 60's. I don't like to overhype and try to keep a reasonable perspective, but if this plays out as expected it's going to be a volatile significant event. Unfortunately, wind fields favor discrete supercells which will enhance the tornado threat.

 

[Bulldog45]

Trying to go to the game Friday and get back early to the Jackson area Saturday morning…possible?

Same here

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

This system is starting to look very potent. If I lived anywhere in Tennessee Valley, I would keep my eyes open Saturday. The weather discussions have been going on for a week, and that's not good.

 

[dorndawg]

Looking like some dicked up weather in the purple area:

 

[patdog]

Looking like some dicked up weather in the purple area:

View attachment 770982

George County taking it balls deep.

 

[dorndawg]

George County taking it balls deep.

nothing new there

 

[Dawgbite]

George County taking it balls deep.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

 

[Chesusdog]

Looking like some dicked up weather in the purple area:

View attachment 770982

The added stimulation to Forrest County could lead to a really messy situation. Definitely want to stay on top of that.

 

[John Deaux VII]

I looks like SPC adjusted the Moderate outlook zone to include more parts of southwest Mississippi and more parts of Alabama.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

All jokes aside, Saturday is shaping up to be an extremely dangerous day. There's a few failure options that could mitigate things but not really looking for them to happen. Take all warnings seriously. If there's one day to take a warning seriously, it is Saturday.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

I looks like SPC adjusted the Moderate outlook zone to include more parts of southwest Mississippi and more parts of Alabama.

Don't be surprised if this goes high risk. I pretty much expect it.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Hi res model is looking pretty wicked for Saturday.

 

[Col. Forbin]

Hi res model is looking pretty wicked for Saturday.

What’s the worst area looking like? SE of Jackson metro?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

What’s the worst area looking like? SE of Jackson metro?

The threat area may be shifting slightly but I would say central and eastern MS into west central AL.

 

[Travelingdawg]

The threat area may be shifting slightly but I would say central and eastern MS into west central AL.

How far north into Mississippi are we looking at?
Thanks for the updates.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

How far north into Mississippi are we looking at?
Thanks for the updates.

For the big time tornado threat, if I had to guess now I'd say around the 82 corridor...maybe a little further. All going to depend on where the boundaries set up.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

All jokes aside, Saturday is shaping up to be an extremely dangerous day. There's a few failure options that could mitigate things but not really looking for them to happen. Take all warnings seriously. If there's one day to take a warning seriously, it is Saturday.

Saturday is gonna be the big event possibly, but tomorrow is not anything to look over if you're north. It really looks bad in the Missouri Valley.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Saturday is gonna be the big event possibly, but tomorrow is not anything to look over if you're north. It really looks bad in the Missouri Valley.

Friday may well fizzle down here if the cap holds, but if it does, it's just going to make Saturday even worse. Have an absolute pristine warm sector full of fuel for the storms to move into.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Friday may well fizzle down here if the cap holds, but if it does, it's just going to make Saturday even worse. Have an absolute pristine warm sector full of fuel for the storms to move into.

The models are frightening.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

The models are frightening.

That is an understatement.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

What about Atlanta, where I am at the moment

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

What about Atlanta, where I am at the moment

You're currently under an enhanced risk that does include a threat for significant severe weather for Saturday night. Will be more of a wind threat by then more than likely.