previously discussed, but beating the drum once again

[jack66]

NCAA bonus points last year.

Luke - 5
Davis - 3
Beau - 1
SVN - 6
Kasak - 5
Mitch - 4
Levi - 3
Carter - 4
Barr - 2
Kerk - 1.5
Team -34.5

 

[Nitlion1986]

what??? and the sport didn't fall apart on account of that dominance?

Not only didn't fall apart, but only ever heard Lorenzo and Fritz talk about working harder to get better so they could beat Iowa. JR worker harder building a program good enough to beat Iowa, so did Coach Smith. No Lion, Gopher, Cowboy whining just work harder.
I can't believe that binder Larry Lee gave to Tom didn't address work harder at getting better. Don't whine, whining is for wusses.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

This is too aggressive on bonus for some. the odds that davis or cole gets 3.5 points bonus ieach is pretty slim.

I wouldn't be surprised, either, if that is the case. I saw the amount of bonus points PSU earned in Consolations last tournament and that colored my predictions some.

 

[BaccaFarmer]

It is hard to fathom that we could make a legitimate argument for 8 champs. My mind is currently trying to comprehend that as well. Crazy times, just enjoy what we have right now.

Nationals are a cauldron that bubbles up more than the expected number of unexpected results. Literally anything can happen, so best to temper our expectations and try our best to enjoy the competition. Based on our history, most of our guys will wrestle to seed or better. A few will taste defeat and wrestle well on the backside. One thing we can feel confident in is the final team Results and Cael’s ability to keep it real.

 

[IoffendwithTruth1]

Nationals are a cauldron that bubbles up more than the expected number of unexpected results. Literally anything can happen, so best to temper our expectations and try our best to enjoy the competition. Based on our history, most of our guys will wrestle to seed or better. A few will taste defeat and wrestle well on the backside. One thing we can feel confident in is the final team Results and Cael’s ability to keep it real.

Agree, but I never said I expect 8 finalists. All I am saying is that it is crazy that we can even have a legitimate conversation about it. In the past, we made arguments with thinking we can potentially have 4-5. That's why I said just enjoy what we have.

 

[Cheat code]

I just want the guys to have fun and achieve their individual goals.

Welcome to the board, Coach Cael! What took you so long?!?!?

 

[AgSurfer]

I can't believe that binder Larry Lee gave to Tom didn't address work harder at getting better. Don't whine, whining is for wusses.

What it did have was a request for reimbursement to replace his wife's eyeglasses.

 

[dicemen99]

NCAA bonus points last year.

Luke - 5
Davis - 3
Beau - 1
SVN - 6
Kasak - 5
Mitch - 4
Levi - 3
Carter - 4
Barr - 2
Kerk - 1.5
Team -34.5

Expected paths, with seeds based on possible finishes at B1Gs and examples of guys they might face:

• Luke #1-4 seed gets #29-32 (Sotello, TF), #13-16 (Moran, MD), #5-8 (Poulin, Dec), #1-4 (Bouzakis, Dec), #1-4 (Ventresca, Dec) to win a championship - 2.5-3.5 BPs expected
• Marcus #1-#5 seed gets #28-33 (Shawver, TF), #11-#16 (Andrick, MD), #4-#8 (Larkin, Dec), #1-#4 (Davino, Dec), #1-#4 (Forrest, Dec) to win a championship - 2-3 BPs
• Davis #12-#15 seed, gets #18-#21 (Drury, MD), gets #2-5 (Echemedia, loss), needs two wins against probably lower seeded guys (Singleton, Manville) to get to the blood round where he will face all higher seeded guys. 1-2 BPs
• SVN #1 seed - gets #32 (Denkins, Fall), #16 (Rivera, MD), #8 (Stiles, MD), #4 (Buesgens, MD), #2 (Joy, Dec) - @4.5-5.5 BPs (some MDs could be Dec, also he could get another fall)
• Duke #2 - #6 seed - gets #27-31 (Buell, TF), #11-#15 (Williams, Dec), #3-#7 (Larkin, Dec), #2-#3 (Taylor, Dec), #1 (Shapiro, Dec). If he loses in the quarters or semis, chance for an additional bonus point or 2 - 1.5-2.5 BPs
• Mitch #1 - gets #32 (Church, TF), #16 (Filipowicz, Fall), #8 Scoles (TF), #4 (Caliendo, Dec), #2-3 (Blaze, Dec) - 5.5-6 BPs
• Levi #1 - gets #32 (Desiante, Fall), #16 (Takats, TF), #8 (Singleton, MD), #4 (Minto, Dec), #2 (Ruiz, Dec) - 4.5-5 BPs
• Rocco #1-4 seed gets #29-32 (Campos, MD), #13-16 (Ayzerov, MD), #5-8 (Allred, Dec), #1-4 (McEnelly, Dec), #1-2 (Sinclair, Dec). If he drops his semi probably gets something like Fishback or Mantanona in the consy semis - 2-3 BPs
• Barr #1 seed gets #32 (Davis, TF), #16 (Cotton, TF), #8 (Stout, MD), #4 (Novak, Dec), #2 (Elam, Dec) - could see him getting a MD in one of those last 2 but maybe not - 4-5 BPs
• Cole #5-12 seed (pretty wide variance depending on B1G performance, could get the 3 seed but I have a hard time seeing him win B1Gs) - MD is his first match and then he is in decision territory on the front side. Highly dependent on how much time he spends on the backside - 1-3 BPs

I have a range of 28 to 38 bonus points, but that's with things pretty much to chalk which is usually not the case. 38 would be really hard and might mean we don't do as well on the front side as we should. We could even dip under 28 and that might mean we are MORE successful on the front side than expected. IIRC we racked up a LOT of our bonus points last year in Round 1 and on Saturday morning to end up with 34.5. I would be disappointed if that was the scenario again.

I'd say the most likely total is about 32.

Looking at seeds, I think we are good for #1s with the big 4 (SVN, Mitch, Levi, Barr) and we have 3 other guys who could wrestle their way to #1 at B1Gs. Don't see a path for PJ, Davis, or Cole to get a #1 seed and we could see Davis and Cole outside of the top 10 depending on B1Gs.

 

[IoffendwithTruth1]

I don't know what you guys are doing for the BIGs but I know I will be enjoying the tournament with either a good cigar or pipe with a few glasses of bourbon in the new addition I just built off of my garage. I made it into a cigar and pipe lounge for cold days when I cannot sit outside to smoke. TV mounted over a Nat Gas ventless fireplace. Bought a hutch at a yard sale, sanded it down and stained it for my humidor, pipes and tobaccos, and all of my bourbons and whiskies. Installed an ERV to pull in fresh air. Totally excited for the BIGs and Natty!

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Expected paths, with seeds based on possible finishes at B1Gs and examples of guys they might face:

• Luke #1-4 seed gets #29-32 (Sotello, TF), #13-16 (Moran, MD), #5-8 (Poulin, Dec), #1-4 (Bouzakis, Dec), #1-4 (Ventresca, Dec) to win a championship - 2.5-3.5 BPs expected
• Marcus #1-#5 seed gets #28-33 (Shawver, TF), #11-#16 (Andrick, MD), #4-#8 (Larkin, Dec), #1-#4 (Davino, Dec), #1-#4 (Forrest, Dec) to win a championship - 2-3 BPs
• Davis #12-#15 seed, gets #18-#21 (Drury, MD), gets #2-5 (Echemedia, loss), needs two wins against probably lower seeded guys (Singleton, Manville) to get to the blood round where he will face all higher seeded guys. 1-2 BPs
• SVN #1 seed - gets #32 (Denkins, Fall), #16 (Rivera, MD), #8 (Stiles, MD), #4 (Buesgens, MD), #2 (Joy, Dec) - @4.5-5.5 BPs (some MDs could be Dec, also he could get another fall)
• Duke #2 - #6 seed - gets #27-31 (Buell, TF), #11-#15 (Williams, Dec), #3-#7 (Larkin, Dec), #2-#3 (Taylor, Dec), #1 (Shapiro, Dec). If he loses in the quarters or semis, chance for an additional bonus point or 2 - 1.5-2.5 BPs
• Mitch #1 - gets #32 (Church, TF), #16 (Filipowicz, Fall), #8 Scoles (TF), #4 (Caliendo, Dec), #2-3 (Blaze, Dec) - 5.5-6 BPs
• Levi #1 - gets #32 (Desiante, Fall), #16 (Takats, TF), #8 (Singleton, MD), #4 (Minto, Dec), #2 (Ruiz, Dec) - 4.5-5 BPs
• Rocco #1-4 seed gets #29-32 (Campos, MD), #13-16 (Ayzerov, MD), #5-8 (Allred, Dec), #1-4 (McEnelly, Dec), #1-2 (Sinclair, Dec). If he drops his semi probably gets something like Fishback or Mantanona in the consy semis - 2-3 BPs
• Barr #1 seed gets #32 (Davis, TF), #16 (Cotton, TF), #8 (Stout, MD), #4 (Novak, Dec), #2 (Elam, Dec) - could see him getting a MD in one of those last 2 but maybe not - 4-5 BPs
• Cole #5-12 seed (pretty wide variance depending on B1G performance, could get the 3 seed but I have a hard time seeing him win B1Gs) - MD is his first match and then he is in decision territory on the front side. Highly dependent on how much time he spends on the backside - 1-3 BPs

I have a range of 28 to 38 bonus points, but that's with things pretty much to chalk which is usually not the case. 38 would be really hard and might mean we don't do as well on the front side as we should. We could even dip under 28 and that might mean we are MORE successful on the front side than expected. IIRC we racked up a LOT of our bonus points last year in Round 1 and on Saturday morning to end up with 34.5. I would be disappointed if that was the scenario again.

I'd say the most likely total is about 32.

Looking at seeds, I think we are good for #1s with the big 4 (SVN, Mitch, Levi, Barr) and we have 3 other guys who could wrestle their way to #1 at B1Gs. Don't see a path for PJ, Davis, or Cole to get a #1 seed and we could see Davis and Cole outside of the top 10 depending on B1Gs.

Bonus was perfectly evenly split between championship and consolation. Similarly, but at opposite ends of the bracket, PSU dominated round one (1.4 bonus per) and the third place matches (1.2 bonus per).

65.2% (22.5 of 34.5) came on the front side while 65.3% (32 of 49) of the matches were on the front side.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I don't know what you guys are doing for the BIGs but I know I will be enjoying the tournament with either a good cigar or pipe with a few glasses of bourbon in the new addition I just built off of my garage. I made it into a cigar and pipe lounge for cold days when I cannot sit outside to smoke. TV mounted over a Nat Gas ventless fireplace. Bought a hutch at a yard sale, sanded it down and stained it for my humidor, pipes and tobaccos, and all of my bourbons and whiskies. Installed an ERV to pull in fresh air. Totally excited for the BIGs and Natty!

A man with a plan. Very nice.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

Bonus was perfectly evenly split between championship and consolation. Similarly, but at opposite ends of the bracket, PSU dominated round one (1.4 bonus per) and the third place matches (1.2 bonus per).

65.2% (22.5 of 34.5) came on the front side while 65.3% (32 of 49) of the matches were on the front side.

Josh and Kerkvliet scored a combined 3.5 Bonus points at last year's NCAA tournament. I anticipate an improvement in those two weights this year. I think Mitchell ups his Bonus points. I think the combined total with Luke and SVN will be very hard to reach this year. How many Bonus points the team scores this year compared to last year will be interesting to see.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

Bonus was perfectly evenly split between championship and consolation. Similarly, but at opposite ends of the bracket, PSU dominated round one (1.4 bonus per) and the third place matches (1.2 bonus per).

65.2% (22.5 of 34.5) came on the front side while 65.3% (32 of 49) of the matches were on the front side.

@Wrestleknownothing I thought I would reply here to your comments below on HR since I didn't want to make their thread too PSU-centric and come across as being rude there : )

"As for predicting PSU's score they have an annoying habit of wrestling very close to seed in spite of their very high seeds. This means they will consistently out-perform my basic model which assumes field-average performance to seed. So, a couple years back I came up with a PSU adjustment. It is a bit of junk statistics though given the relatively small sample size. Last year based on field-average performance stats I had PSU at 156 points. Using the adjustment factor I had them at 181."

That "PSU adjustment" of yours was very accurate for last year. Once the NCAA seeds are finalized after the conference tournaments I will be interested to see what your PSU adjustment spits out for this year's NCAA tournament : )

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

@Wrestleknownothing I thought I would reply here to your comments below on HR since I didn't want to make their thread to PSU-centric and come across as being rude there : )

"As for predicting PSU's score they have an annoying habit of wrestling very close to seed in spite of their very high seeds. This means they will consistently out-perform my basic model which assumes field-average performance to seed. So, a couple years back I came up with a PSU adjustment. It is a bit of junk statistics though given the relatively small sample size. Last year based on field-average performance stats I had PSU at 156 points. Using the adjustment factor I had them at 181."

That "PSU adjustment" of yours was very accurate for last year. Once the NCAA seeds are finalized after the conference tournaments I will be interested to see what your PSU adjustment spits out for this year's NCAA tournament : )

Smart. After I responded it ocurred to me that we were on the Iowa board. Oops.