Expected paths, with seeds based on possible finishes at B1Gs and examples of guys they might face:
- Luke #1-4 seed gets #29-32 (Sotello, TF), #13-16 (Moran, MD), #5-8 (Poulin, Dec), #1-4 (Bouzakis, Dec), #1-4 (Ventresca, Dec) to win a championship - 2.5-3.5 BPs expected
- Marcus #1-#5 seed gets #28-33 (Shawver, TF), #11-#16 (Andrick, MD), #4-#8 (Larkin, Dec), #1-#4 (Davino, Dec), #1-#4 (Forrest, Dec) to win a championship - 2-3 BPs
- Davis #12-#15 seed, gets #18-#21 (Drury, MD), gets #2-5 (Echemedia, loss), needs two wins against probably lower seeded guys (Singleton, Manville) to get to the blood round where he will face all higher seeded guys. 1-2 BPs
- SVN #1 seed - gets #32 (Denkins, Fall), #16 (Rivera, MD), #8 (Stiles, MD), #4 (Buesgens, MD), #2 (Joy, Dec) - @4.5-5.5 BPs (some MDs could be Dec, also he could get another fall)
- Duke #2 - #6 seed - gets #27-31 (Buell, TF), #11-#15 (Williams, Dec), #3-#7 (Larkin, Dec), #2-#3 (Taylor, Dec), #1 (Shapiro, Dec). If he loses in the quarters or semis, chance for an additional bonus point or 2 - 1.5-2.5 BPs
- Mitch #1 - gets #32 (Church, TF), #16 (Filipowicz, Fall), #8 Scoles (TF), #4 (Caliendo, Dec), #2-3 (Blaze, Dec) - 5.5-6 BPs
- Levi #1 - gets #32 (Desiante, Fall), #16 (Takats, TF), #8 (Singleton, MD), #4 (Minto, Dec), #2 (Ruiz, Dec) - 4.5-5 BPs
- Rocco #1-4 seed gets #29-32 (Campos, MD), #13-16 (Ayzerov, MD), #5-8 (Allred, Dec), #1-4 (McEnelly, Dec), #1-2 (Sinclair, Dec). If he drops his semi probably gets something like Fishback or Mantanona in the consy semis - 2-3 BPs
- Barr #1 seed gets #32 (Davis, TF), #16 (Cotton, TF), #8 (Stout, MD), #4 (Novak, Dec), #2 (Elam, Dec) - could see him getting a MD in one of those last 2 but maybe not - 4-5 BPs
- Cole #5-12 seed (pretty wide variance depending on B1G performance, could get the 3 seed but I have a hard time seeing him win B1Gs) - MD is his first match and then he is in decision territory on the front side. Highly dependent on how much time he spends on the backside - 1-3 BPs
I have a range of 28 to 38 bonus points, but that's with things pretty much to chalk which is usually not the case. 38 would be really hard and might mean we don't do as well on the front side as we should. We could even dip under 28 and that might mean we are MORE successful on the front side than expected. IIRC we racked up a LOT of our bonus points last year in Round 1 and on Saturday morning to end up with 34.5. I would be disappointed if that was the scenario again.
I'd say the most likely total is about 32.
Looking at seeds, I think we are good for #1s with the big 4 (SVN, Mitch, Levi, Barr) and we have 3 other guys who could wrestle their way to #1 at B1Gs. Don't see a path for PJ, Davis, or Cole to get a #1 seed and we could see Davis and Cole outside of the top 10 depending on B1Gs.
