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Question for you statisticians....

T

thekimmer

All-Conference
Aug 30, 2012
7,805
1,798
113
The way it was explained that the home team was decided for the supers was that a coin flip decided the first game, the second game was automatically awarded to the team that lost the flip and then the another flip was done for game 3. That approach to me seems to inordinately favor the team that lost the first flip because it requires them to have to win only one of two flips to get home field twice but the first team has to win two consecutive.

Would it not be a fairer to flip twice. If one team wins both flips they get home advantage for games 1 and 3 while the other team gets game 2. If each team wins one then flip again for game 3. That way either team and especially the team that wins the first flip has to win 2 of 3 instead of 2 of 2.

Not a big deal. Just a thought I had. Any merit to the logic though?
 
Bulldog from Birth

Bulldog from Birth

Senior
Jan 23, 2007
2,390
754
113
There is no merit to the logic. The second flip has zero dependence on the outcome of the first flip. You have a 50% chance of winning the second coin flip and getting the home designation for Game 3.
 
P

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
53,749
21,306
113
Or another way of looking at it, the 1st flip is meaningless as each team will be home once & away once in the 1st 2 games.
 
L

Len2003

Redshirt
May 13, 2018
1,103
0
36
Does it even matter if you bat last? Does it statistically give you an advantage when you look at the numbers?
 
Bulldog from Birth

Bulldog from Birth

Senior
Jan 23, 2007
2,390
754
113
In the end any team ends up with a 25% chance of being Home/Visitor/Home, a 25% chance of being Visitor/Home/Home, a 25% chance of bringing Home/Visitor/Visitor, and a 25% chance of being Visitor/Home/Visitor.
 
Bulldog from Birth

Bulldog from Birth

Senior
Jan 23, 2007
2,390
754
113
From what I’ve read, playing in your home stadium does give you a statistical advantage. But the mere fact of batting in the home half of an inning however does not.
 
F

Fogdog

Redshirt
Oct 6, 2014
572
0
0
Weedhopper, your punishment is that you must return to the classroom for a 100-level probabilities class. C’mon...you’re better than this.
 
M

MSUDAWGFAN

Senior
Apr 17, 2014
1,043
633
113
thekimmer said:
The way it was explained that the home team was decided for the supers was that a coin flip decided the first game, the second game was automatically awarded to the team that lost the flip and then the another flip was done for game 3. That approach to me seems to inordinately favor the team that lost the first flip because it requires them to have to win only one of two flips to get home field twice but the first team has to win two consecutive.

Would it not be a fairer to flip twice. If one team wins both flips they get home advantage for games 1 and 3 while the other team gets game 2. If each team wins one then flip again for game 3. That way either team and especially the team that wins the first flip has to win 2 of 3 instead of 2 of 2.

Not a big deal. Just a thought I had. Any merit to the logic though?
Click to expand...

Back in my undergrad days my roommate started to do some research into counting cards for Blackjack. There is a method called the Martingale method. Basically, you start off at the table minimum and always double your bet if you lose. Never split or do anything else to screw up the bet amount. Say the table minimum is $5. You win, great. You've won $5. If you lose, you double your bet to $10. If you win, you ha e won $5 in that strand and start over. If you lose, you've lost $15 so double to 20, etc. The theory is that since the odds are roughly 1/2 you will lose a hand that losing 5 hands in a row is roughly 1/32. So on your 5th hand, you should bet $160. The problem with that is the odds of losing the 5th hand isn't 1/32. Its about 1/2. I know the odds aren't exactly 1/2 but its very close and simplifies the math to round up. This is very similar to what Bulldog from Birth posted.
 
R

RocketDawg

All-Conference
Oct 21, 2011
17,786
1,268
113
Saw a blurb during the Tenn Tech/Texas game that said 78% (I think that was the number) of Super home teams go to Omaha. Don't know if that was so far this year, or a historical figure.
 
D

Dawgzilla

Redshirt
Mar 3, 2008
5,406
0
0
This. The second flip is the important one, since it determines who gets to be the home team in the deciding game. A team might really want to win the first flip for various reasons, but it doesn't have any effect on their ability to win the second flip.
 
P

PreacherDog

Redshirt
Nov 10, 2017
199
0
16
thekimmer said:
The way it was explained that the home team was decided for the supers was that a coin flip decided the first game, the second game was automatically awarded to the team that lost the flip and then the another flip was done for game 3. That approach to me seems to inordinately favor the team that lost the first flip because it requires them to have to win only one of two flips to get home field twice but the first team has to win two consecutive.

Would it not be a fairer to flip twice. If one team wins both flips they get home advantage for games 1 and 3 while the other team gets game 2. If each team wins one then flip again for game 3. That way either team and especially the team that wins the first flip has to win 2 of 3 instead of 2 of 2.

Not a big deal. Just a thought I had. Any merit to the logic though?
Click to expand...

Heres a solution: why not just one flip to see who gets to be home team in 1st and 3rd games.
 
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