Damn this is getting old. I think this might give us a little better shot at staying in the game though.
Rain/thunderstorm chances on Saturday again.
- Thread starter mstatefan88
- Start date
Minter City has gotten over 18 inches of rain in the past week or so.
We have been fortunate here that most places on the farm have only gotten about 3 inches total. It looks like its going to be a looong fall for us.
We have been fortunate here that most places on the farm have only gotten about 3 inches total. It looks like its going to be a looong fall for us.
Been rained on twice, and we won both of those.
Not that I'm superstitious...
One of my best buds from MSU was from Minter City.
He now lives in TX, a dry end of that state.
I'll have to share that with him.
Not that I'm superstitious...
One of my best buds from MSU was from Minter City.
He now lives in TX, a dry end of that state.
I'll have to share that with him.
The National Weather Service forecast discussion talks about rain starting early in the day which would really suck for everyone tailgating. It could very well end up being a miserable day. Unless we win of course...
Yeah I see chances of rain on Saturday. I look at weather computer models all the time and each model has the front diving into our area. Us meteorology majors and our professors are trying to figure out the timing but most models are pushing the storms in around game time and maybe a little earlier. The rain saturated ground could be very conducive to flooding again as it did in 21 Apartment complex in my parking lot, the creek behind my building, and one of the buildings did actually get water in the 1st floor. Luckily I'm on the 4th floor. Here is a link to some precipitation data. BTW the day it flooded this past Friday we got 3.5 inches of rain WOW. http://geosciences.msstate.edu/wx/noaamo.txt
Let me get a few models and show you guys a little of what we do..There are chances for some isolated strong to severe storms but its still a little to far out to say for sure. Anyway here are a few..You scroll over the times. By the way Z time, you subtract five hours from what it says. 0Z=midnight in England which is what Z time is based on so all forecasts come out at the same Z time. 0Z is midnight then it goes like a 24 hr clock up until at midnight it changes to 0. So the time of a forecast for 9/26 Saturday at 0Z would actually be for 7PM on Friday night. When the time changes in November, we'll be 6 hours behind Greenwich, England, not 5 so you would subtract 6 then and 0Z would be 6PM, not 7PM but don't worry about that.
GFS:http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_slp_gfs_12z.htm (look at 60-84hrs out so the forecast is from 0Z Saturday-0Z Sunday [7PM Friday to 7PM Saturday]). You can see rain beginning Friday night and lingering into Saturday with coverage and intensity increasing as the heat of the day on Saturday fuels the storms.
NAM: http://www.txtornado.net/NAM/wna_slp_nam_12z.htm (60-84 hrs out). This shows much lighter rainfall and less coverage Friday. This is probably more of scattered showers and not as much heavy rain than the GFS.
CMC (Canadian Weather Model): http://www.txtornado.net/gem/gem_12z.htm (60-84hrs out). This shows a line of storms moving into our area on Friday night into Saturday with the storms increasing in intensity. The precip map is at the bottom right hand corner of the screen. Watch it while you move your mouse over the times. Also don't think this is what the rain will look like for sure. These are computer models and are fairly accurate, but individual storms (convective storms) it sucks at.
What I can see is that the CMC and GFS are pushing the storms through slower than the NAM and have higher intensity rainfall. I'll have to watch how much moisture is being brought in closer to time and what the wind shear (changing wind with height) and instability (how unstable the atmosphere is) before I can forecast intensity like amount of rain and severe storm possibilities.
Here is a satellite imagery where you can see this huge upper level low pressure over the Plains that will connect back with the jet stream in a day or two and help to provide favorable environment for storms to develop and push the storms into our area.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeir4.html
Let me get a few models and show you guys a little of what we do..There are chances for some isolated strong to severe storms but its still a little to far out to say for sure. Anyway here are a few..You scroll over the times. By the way Z time, you subtract five hours from what it says. 0Z=midnight in England which is what Z time is based on so all forecasts come out at the same Z time. 0Z is midnight then it goes like a 24 hr clock up until at midnight it changes to 0. So the time of a forecast for 9/26 Saturday at 0Z would actually be for 7PM on Friday night. When the time changes in November, we'll be 6 hours behind Greenwich, England, not 5 so you would subtract 6 then and 0Z would be 6PM, not 7PM but don't worry about that.
GFS:http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/wna_slp_gfs_12z.htm (look at 60-84hrs out so the forecast is from 0Z Saturday-0Z Sunday [7PM Friday to 7PM Saturday]). You can see rain beginning Friday night and lingering into Saturday with coverage and intensity increasing as the heat of the day on Saturday fuels the storms.
NAM: http://www.txtornado.net/NAM/wna_slp_nam_12z.htm (60-84 hrs out). This shows much lighter rainfall and less coverage Friday. This is probably more of scattered showers and not as much heavy rain than the GFS.
CMC (Canadian Weather Model): http://www.txtornado.net/gem/gem_12z.htm (60-84hrs out). This shows a line of storms moving into our area on Friday night into Saturday with the storms increasing in intensity. The precip map is at the bottom right hand corner of the screen. Watch it while you move your mouse over the times. Also don't think this is what the rain will look like for sure. These are computer models and are fairly accurate, but individual storms (convective storms) it sucks at.
What I can see is that the CMC and GFS are pushing the storms through slower than the NAM and have higher intensity rainfall. I'll have to watch how much moisture is being brought in closer to time and what the wind shear (changing wind with height) and instability (how unstable the atmosphere is) before I can forecast intensity like amount of rain and severe storm possibilities.
Here is a satellite imagery where you can see this huge upper level low pressure over the Plains that will connect back with the jet stream in a day or two and help to provide favorable environment for storms to develop and push the storms into our area.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeir4.html
where the hell is all this rain coming from anyway? this has become beyond absurd. is this what it feels like to live in the northwestern corner of the country?
This rain is coming from the upper level low over the Great Plains. We are in a certain area of the circulation that is favorable for uplift, or the air wants to rise. That instability added with the southerly winds over a huge moisture source, the Gulf of Mexico, is aiding in this heavy rain development. I'm not saying its gonna rain its *** off, I'll have to check the QPF (Quantifiable Precipitation Forecast) as we get closer to the date cause it'll get more accurate, but if you look at that satellite loop I put that shows it spinning in the central part of the country. There is also a high pressure to the east. The upper level low to our northwest spins counterclockwise and the high pressure to the east spins clockwise so that is channeling all the moisture into the MS area. I believe that we will have another wet time this weekend..I'm tired of this 17n rain I hate walking to class in it and getting soaked at football games..But yeah I'll try to look at more things and give descriptions of what we do and why they have a 70% chance of rain..Now the question is the timing..It could be a heavy rain and that will make the ground even more saturated, but the timing will also impact the intensity and if we get lots of rain at night or early morning hours and there isn't much rain or any at the game, I don't want people thinking I can't forecast. There is so many things that go into a weather forecast so its not easy to interpret it all. Its tough and depends on tough factors. This is such an odd setup so I'm still not sure. Here is the current QPF: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif This shows that there will only be about 0.2 inches of rain from 0Z Saturday to 0Z Sunday (7PM Friday-7PM Saturday). I might tweak that if its later in the day and I see moisture surging in.
secondly I still think somewhere in those clockwises , uplifts , QPF`s and counterclockwises you`re telling us it`s gonna rain it`s *** off. Please keep us informed.
Thanks man lol I appreciate it. I'm not telling you its gonna rain its *** off but I am saying its likely going to rain and may be a decent amount. Sorry I don't mean to get to in depth with stuff I do sometimes, but sometimes its very hard to explain the why part if I don't tell you what is the current setup, with it sometimes being complicated. If you ever don't understand something, just tell me to explain something better. BTW thanks for the Al Roker comment lol. However, Al Roker is scared of us MSU weather graduates lol he saw some students wearing MSU shirts in New York and asked if they were meteorology students. They said no and he said good I don't want you taking my job haha. But yeah btw I have another one of my weather friends on here on sixpack too.
Our guy sounds like he knows a shitton more about weather than Al Roker. I say "Sixpackspeak.com Staff Meteorologist"
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