I will update this through the rest of the season. I started this in another thread and it promoted me to study it a little more. These are my predictions, based on my research and analysis of current records, RPI and past NCAA decision making.
Regional Host Picture
Compiled by 615dawg @ Six Pack Speak
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Regional Host Picture
Compiled by 615dawg @ Six Pack Speak
ACC (4 bids)
Locks: North Carolina (4), Florida State (10) Likely: Virginia (5), North Carolina State (13) In the Hunt: Virginia Tech (12), Clemson (16), Miami (17), Georgia Tech (19) | North Carolina has been a consensus No. 1 team for most of the season, At 31-2, they are also in contention for the No. 1 overall seed. They have a three game set with Virginia Tech this weekend. The Hokies have a strong RPI. A series upset of UNC and they could jump into the hosting picture as a fifth ACC team. Florida State's remaining schedule is significantly easier than Virginia's, although the two teams have a three game set April 17-19. NC State's sweep of Virginia Tech knocked the Hokies out of a host spot for the time being, and back to back home series with UNC and Florida State give the Wolfpack a chance to make some serious noise for a national seed. Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech all have high enough RPIs that they need to be considered, but this is a crowded ACC, with nine teams in the top 20 of the RPI. Add in Maryland, and the ACC is poised to be a 10-bid conference. The ACC is likely guaranteed four host slots, and the most likely to get a fifth hosting position. |
SEC (4 bids)
Locks: Vanderbilt (2), LSU (3) Likely: South Carolina (11) Right Now: Kentucky (20) In the Hunt: Mississippi State (14), Ole Miss (1, Texas A&M (24), Alabama (34), Arkansas (49) | Vanderbilt and LSU are poised for an SEC race for the ages. Its unfortunate that they don't meet in the regular season, but Vandy's schedule (by virtue of being in the East) is significantly easier, so the smart money is on Vandy to emerge as the SEC Champs. However, LSU at 32-2 doesn't seem like they plan to lose either. Both are virtual locks to host and receive national seeds. South Carolina at 27-7 has been solid, but overshadowed by Vandy and LSU. The Gamecocks get the Dores and Tigers in back to back weekends later this month. Going 3-3 in that six game set would put USC in the conversation for a national seed. Series against Kentucky and Mississippi State are also important. Kentucky gets the nod as the fourth SEC host at this time, but it is far from a lock. Kentucky is about to take back to back trips to Columbia and Oxford. A poor performance there, combined with MSU taking care of business against Texas A&M and Auburn and the Bulldogs could get the nod over Kentucky despite losing the series. Ole Miss has a high RPI but needs to get back on track to get into serious hosting discussions again. Texas A&M's RPI is solid, but a 4-10 record against Top 50 teams hurts. Alabama and Arkansas have lower RPIs, but if they keep winning, that will take care of itself. Both are tied for the third best conference record, which is why they have to be factored into the discussion. |
Pac 12 (4 bids)
Locks: Oregon State (1), Oregon (7) Likely: Arizona State (9), UCLA (22) | Oregon State and Oregon are locked in an intense battle for the Pac 12 title. Despite Oregon State's No. 1 RPI, the Ducks have a hald-game lead. The two teams play a four game set May 17-21. (three Pac 12 games and a neutral site Governor's Cup-style game in Portland). Arizona State is 6-6 in the Pac 12, but has already faced both Oregon State and Oregon (as well as third place UCLA). The Sun Devils' schedule for them to finish strong, and possibly be in contention for a national seed. UCLA current sits between the Oregon schools and ASU, but still has to travel to Oregon. Stanford is the only other Pac 12 team that can even compete for a bid to the tournament, and with an RPI in the 70s, they will not be hosting. |
Big East (1 bid)
Locks: None Likely: Louisville (29) In the Hunt: Notre Dame (26) | Louisville is sitting at 25-7, in the top 10 of some polls, and will likely receive a host site if they can keep winning in the Big East. Their remaining conference series, the highest team they face is 84th-rated UConn. The Cards just need to take care of business. Notre Dame did not do themselves any favors by being swept by Louisville, but they still have a high enough RPI to watch out for. Like Louisville, the remaining schedule is dismal, but the Irish have five Top 50 wins, including Virginia Tech and Oklahoma. Notre Dame cannot afford to lose a weekend series, and they really need to string together a few sweeps (and have some bibble hosts start losing) to have a chance to host. |
Other Conferences (3 bids)
Locks: Cal State Fullerton (6), Indiana ( Likely: Oklahoma (21) Long Shot: Cal Poly (35), South Alabama (23), Coastal Carolina (36) | Cal State Fullerton has a solid club that should be a national seed once again. With only one other team (Cal Poly) making serious noise in the Big West this year, the Titans are a virtual lock to host. Cal Poly has an opportunity, but they would need to win the Big West and possibly sweep Fullerton in order to get serious consideration. Indiana is the best Big Ten team in several years, and is also a lock at a national seed and host. This is a team that could end up in Omaha. They are 6-2 against the Top 50 and are destroying the weak Big Ten. If they were matched up against a Kentucky or Louisville (geographic possibilities), then the Hoosiers would have to be a favorite to get to Omaha. The Big 12 sucks. At one time it was on par with the ACC and SEC as a power conference. As of now, Oklahoma is the only team that deserves a bid, and at 27-6, and a No. 21 RPI, they would probably host. South Alabama's RPI looks intriguing, but they are 0-4 against top 50 teams. They likely end up as a tough No. 2 at an SEC or ACC host. Coastal is the same way. A solid record and RPI, but 1-6 against the top 50. Probably destined for a No. 2 seed at South Carolina or an ACC host. |
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