Regional projections- 5/1/2012
- Thread starter Coach34
- Start date
..if MSU's pitching keeps up its current pace, the wins will continue, & hosting is still in the picture.
I guarantee you if I researched all the current projected hosts, some of then will have ****** RPI's.
...if MSU goes 4-2 vs. UF & UK, the RPI will be taken care of.
Hell, if MSU goes 3-3 against UF & UK, the RPI will be taken care of.
All I know is I see a team that has the pitching to host.
Good pitching = wins = satisfying the RPI nerds.
...if MSU goes 4-2 vs. UF & UK, the RPI will be taken care of.
Hell, if MSU goes 3-3 against UF & UK, the RPI will be taken care of.
All I know is I see a team that has the pitching to host.
Good pitching = wins = satisfying the RPI nerds.
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2012/rpi
Hosting is not outside the realm of possibility, if we can finish hot, do well early in the SEC tourney, and get the rpi into the top 20. The NCAA does make money off regionals, and if we are close, We "may" catch a break because of all the attendance records we've set over the years in postseason play.
As for what's required... I'd say we have to win all 3 series and all the midweek games, as well as probably 2 games in the SEC tourney. Even with Florida and Kentucky beginning to falter, that's going to be a tough row to hoe. This would put us at 38-21 or 39-20(16-14 or 17-13)(2-2). Right on the hosting bubble most likely...
Hosting is not outside the realm of possibility, if we can finish hot, do well early in the SEC tourney, and get the rpi into the top 20. The NCAA does make money off regionals, and if we are close, We "may" catch a break because of all the attendance records we've set over the years in postseason play.
As for what's required... I'd say we have to win all 3 series and all the midweek games, as well as probably 2 games in the SEC tourney. Even with Florida and Kentucky beginning to falter, that's going to be a tough row to hoe. This would put us at 38-21 or 39-20(16-14 or 17-13)(2-2). Right on the hosting bubble most likely...
Projected host (in order from 1-16) - Current RPI per Boyd
FSU - 1
Baylor - 3
Purdue - 5
UK - 10
LSU - 7
USCe - 9
Rice - 11
Oregon - 16
CSFullerton - 13
TAMU - 17
UNC - 6
UCLA - 4
NCState - 15
UFlorida - 2
Stanford - 8
Arky - 12
I'd love to have a ****** RPI like the above.
Not RPI specifically, but the days of us hosting just because of the large crowds are long gone (like a lot of the crowds). There won't be more than a couple of #1 seeds that don't host, and even then the host will usually be a team from a mid-major conference and a high #2 seed. Also, with LSU, UF, USC & Kentucky almost locks to host, they're not about to give a 5th regional to a #2 seed.
We all know what happened last time we went to a regional in Tallahassee. Plus, I can pair that with my annual beach vacation.
Earlier in the year I though Purdue might be a #1 seed but not host, but Kendall Rogers said that definitely wouldn't happen this year. Even though I know nothing about their team, its hard to buy into them as a national seed.
Win 3 or 4 games there and we will move up a few notches.........That is, if we do what we should do this weekend against Bama, but I'm not all in on that..........I don't think we'll sweep and actually think we'll have to play our tails off at their place to get two...........
is how the committee is going to look at our injuries and factor that in. It might make our RPI a little bit higher than it actually is.
A healthy MSU team probably at worst splits with Southeast Louisiana on the road, not to mention close losses to LSU and Arkansas when we were the most hurt as a team.
I don't know how much of a factor it's going to be either- but I think it will count for something especially with all the close losses we've had.
I'm not saying that we will host because of it, but we might get a better seed or draw because of it.
It's also going to depend on how we do in the SEC Tournament. Boyd doesn't factor conference tournaments in, and we can either help our hurt ourselves with our performance.
A healthy MSU team probably at worst splits with Southeast Louisiana on the road, not to mention close losses to LSU and Arkansas when we were the most hurt as a team.
I don't know how much of a factor it's going to be either- but I think it will count for something especially with all the close losses we've had.
I'm not saying that we will host because of it, but we might get a better seed or draw because of it.
It's also going to depend on how we do in the SEC Tournament. Boyd doesn't factor conference tournaments in, and we can either help our hurt ourselves with our performance.
He's just projecting what it would take to get a top 45, top 32, top 16, and top 8 RPI. I have no doubt that if we were to do something crazy like go10-2 in the last 12 games, we'd be in the mix to host.
It's pure speculation what we would have done at SELA, LSU and vs. Arkansas if the injured players had been healthy. Most of them haven't produced much since they came back anyway. One question I keep coming back to is what would we have done in those games if we'd let Pollorena pitch? I know people kept saying he was struggling, but a month into the season he had 6 innings pitched and a 4.50 ERA. Especially a couple of Sunday games we lost early in the SEC season.
It's pure speculation what we would have done at SELA, LSU and vs. Arkansas if the injured players had been healthy. Most of them haven't produced much since they came back anyway. One question I keep coming back to is what would we have done in those games if we'd let Pollorena pitch? I know people kept saying he was struggling, but a month into the season he had 6 innings pitched and a 4.50 ERA. Especially a couple of Sunday games we lost early in the SEC season.
I've heard ESPN speculate what a team would have done had player x not been injured.
Again, I don't know how much of a factor it is. Also, I think it's fair to say that our players are not producing in part because of their injuries.
As far as Pollorena- going from an ERA of 4.50 to 1.46 is a pretty good bit over the season. Bear in mind that 4.50 was inflicted by some of our worst competition. Had we pitched him when he was struggling, he might have lost his confidence and he wouldn't have been what he is now. That's very risky. Especially since confidence is a huge part of playing baseball.
Baseball is also a lot more political than basketball. The committee will do things like match us up against USM because they think it will draw interest. They don't have that issue for the basketball tournament.
But you are right- Boyd plays it safe, which is probably a good way to do it in general, but he also runs the risk of missing the boat big time- like he did with LSU last year.
Again, I don't know how much of a factor it is. Also, I think it's fair to say that our players are not producing in part because of their injuries.
As far as Pollorena- going from an ERA of 4.50 to 1.46 is a pretty good bit over the season. Bear in mind that 4.50 was inflicted by some of our worst competition. Had we pitched him when he was struggling, he might have lost his confidence and he wouldn't have been what he is now. That's very risky. Especially since confidence is a huge part of playing baseball.
Baseball is also a lot more political than basketball. The committee will do things like match us up against USM because they think it will draw interest. They don't have that issue for the basketball tournament.
But you are right- Boyd plays it safe, which is probably a good way to do it in general, but he also runs the risk of missing the boat big time- like he did with LSU last year.
You're way overexaggerating the effects of the injuries. Not saying they didn't have any effect at all, but for the most part we went several games without a few mediocre players. I'm as excited about the recent streak as anyone, but we're just not going to even be in the discussion when the committe picks the 16 regional hosts.
It's going to take a lot of work for either State or OM to host at this point. Arkansas is closer right now and they aren't going to let more than 4 or 5 SEC teams host. They've already admitted to trying to spread the regionals out geographically. Realistically, the best to hope for is securing a 2 seed and hope to get some easy pairings.
Collegiate baseball says technically one IS an all-American: http://www.hailstate.com/...D=16800&ATCLID=205158261
That's a freshman all-American, Mr Baseball in the state of Fla coming in, that Cohen said today separated his shoulder again and is likely out for the season. Never mind Norris and the flashes of brilliance he showed early this season.
Having to pull redshirts off guys who were in the middle of spring break cost us ~ 2 SEC games we'd likely have won if healthy.
That's a freshman all-American, Mr Baseball in the state of Fla coming in, that Cohen said today separated his shoulder again and is likely out for the season. Never mind Norris and the flashes of brilliance he showed early this season.
Having to pull redshirts off guys who were in the middle of spring break cost us ~ 2 SEC games we'd likely have won if healthy.
lose their entire outfield- (CT, Brownlee, Stark, and then Demarcus for good measure), their third baseman, and have to play with their SS and first baseman banged up. And you think having them hurt and not playing all that well is an "exagerration" because all of them aren't All-Americans? Maybe if we lost our entire team- would that be good enough for you? Which has almost actually happened. Thank God Mitch Slauter gets to wear a mask and a chest protector I guess.
And I wasn't talking about hosting at all- I was talking about our seed.
Our injuries have been our biggest problem on offense this year.
And I wasn't talking about hosting at all- I was talking about our seed.
Our injuries have been our biggest problem on offense this year.
However, we do have a pretty good chance right now of making Hoover, possibly winning a game or two, and then spring boarding that into a possible 2 seed somewhere that might, just might, give us another scenario like we had last year. That being said, there is a shitload of baseball left to play that could shoot that scenario to hell and back. But hosting? No way.