RPI now below 200.
- Thread starter Hanmudog
- Start date
It's debatable whether it's mathematically valid at the end of the season, but it's definitely not valid halfway through when teams have barely played any conference games...
If you beat a team that is currently in the Top 100, they give you one dollar sign for a good win, Top 25 wins are two dollar signs. If you lost to a team outside the Top 100, it's a bad loss, one question mark. Outside the Top 200 losses are 2 question marks.
As far as the formula goes, it's 25% your winning percentage, 50% your opponents' winning percentage, and 25% your opponents' opponents winning percentage. In each case, they don't count your game with your opponent in the opponents' winning percentage. For example, if you beat a team that was 10-0, their record added to your 50% category would be 10-0, not 10-1.
And they give weight to home games and road games. I believe the factor is a road win counts 1.4 wins. Road losses count as 0.6 losses. Home wins count as 0.6 wins, and home losses count as 1.4 losses.
It's something similar to that, so if you are 10-0, like the example above, your record wouldn't necessarily be 10-0 for the calculation. It may be something more like 8.6-0.
As far as the formula goes, it's 25% your winning percentage, 50% your opponents' winning percentage, and 25% your opponents' opponents winning percentage. In each case, they don't count your game with your opponent in the opponents' winning percentage. For example, if you beat a team that was 10-0, their record added to your 50% category would be 10-0, not 10-1.
And they give weight to home games and road games. I believe the factor is a road win counts 1.4 wins. Road losses count as 0.6 losses. Home wins count as 0.6 wins, and home losses count as 1.4 losses.
It's something similar to that, so if you are 10-0, like the example above, your record wouldn't necessarily be 10-0 for the calculation. It may be something more like 8.6-0.
Big D said:
but I want to say one of the crack researchers here at Sixpacks Peak said that the lowest RPI at-large berth ever was around 70...so, if we arent close to 70, it wont matter at all
And I think we would have to win out to get to 70...but 615, D@A, Fish, Scooba, and a few others know more about all that than I do
and I can't remember the circumstances.
I do know that the committee takes injuries into account in seeding sometimes. I remember Cincinnati with Kenyon Martin one year had a 1 seed resume. They got a 2 seed though because K-Mart broke his leg in the CUSA tourney that year. They were bounced early from the dance too.
There have been other instances as well.
I still think they won't completely discount your early season losses. You'd probably have to go 13-3 and win one or two SEC tourney games to get an at large. 12-4 is likely NIT for MSU this year. Like you said, you probably need to get your RPI near that 70 level to even have a shot for consideration. At that point they may give you benefit of the doubt if your new players have made that much of a difference.
I do know that the committee takes injuries into account in seeding sometimes. I remember Cincinnati with Kenyon Martin one year had a 1 seed resume. They got a 2 seed though because K-Mart broke his leg in the CUSA tourney that year. They were bounced early from the dance too.
There have been other instances as well.
I still think they won't completely discount your early season losses. You'd probably have to go 13-3 and win one or two SEC tourney games to get an at large. 12-4 is likely NIT for MSU this year. Like you said, you probably need to get your RPI near that 70 level to even have a shot for consideration. At that point they may give you benefit of the doubt if your new players have made that much of a difference.
Suppose we wina share of the overall SEC title with a record of 12-4 to put us at 20-11 in the regular season with an RPI around 75. It would be a weird situation but it could happen.I don't think there is anyway an overall conference champ from a major conferencegets left out regardless of RPI, especially in light of the circumstances we have faced with the suspensions of Bost and Sidney.
Disclaimer: I do not think this is going to happen. I still think we will end up at 7-9.</p>
Disclaimer: I do not think this is going to happen. I still think we will end up at 7-9.</p>
Big D said:
personally, I dont think we have a shot to win more than 10, but if we did somehow win 12 and share the title...the Committee would freak out
They would have to let us in- but at 12-4, depending who beat us, our RPI would probably be in the 80's
FAU is close too at 102 now.
The biggest thing is we have to beat UGA Saturday. **** ain't happenin.
The biggest thing is we have to beat UGA Saturday. **** ain't happenin.
I think there's a "chance", but its kind of strange that we're asking the NCAA to overlook losses that took place while two players were serving NCAA suspensions. Isn't that kind of the point of suspensions?? While they may overlook those losses when it comes to seeding, I don't expect the NCAA to have much sympathy if those December losses are keeping MSU out of the tournament.
But, I think its hard to speculate until we see the other teams in the at-large pool. Probably need to hope there are not many big upset teams earning bids by winning their conference tourney. If State can get an RPI in the 70s, then there's a chance.
But, I think its hard to speculate until we see the other teams in the at-large pool. Probably need to hope there are not many big upset teams earning bids by winning their conference tourney. If State can get an RPI in the 70s, then there's a chance.
either the SEC Tourny or win the overall SEC Championship. I don't think there will be an at large bid from the west. If the Bears turn it around and go12-4 or 11-5 they MIGHT but the west is so weak overall I doubt it. We lost too many pre-SEC for an at large short of winning the overall SEC.
maroonmania said:
we did this to ourselves...this isnt a bad luck knee injury or something unfortunate- this is the result of the cluster-17 leadership of our program.
It's not the NCAA's fault we didnt have better players to step in for those guys earlier in the season. That's our problem
They look like they might be able to pull off 11 wins or so...that still might not be good enough, but Grant used suspensions and such early on and seems to have their attention now. They let one get away Sat vs UPig- but I think they have a shot to beat Kentucky tonight at home...if they do that, they got a shot
I deleted upon reading the pretty lengthy discussion of the similar topic earlier in the thread. Still thinking it would be heavily weighed though if we could get to being a marginal team. Right now though we aren't even close to that.
Hanmudog said:
What if you go 3-3 against the East and 9-1 against the West to get to 12-4?
That's a big question.
I just heard Jerry Palm say that if the West was a conference by itself, it would be the 15th or 16th best conference in terms of RPI. If a team from the West wins a share of the conference title with a team from the East that had to play a tougher conference schedule, would they consider it a big accomplishment?
I don't know. There are a lot of hypotheticals. You could get some benefit of the doubt from the committtee based on your midseason additions and how well you play down the stretch, but the overall resume is going to have to include a really strong finish I would think.
The clap has been back in effect the past two games. As long as Stans is clapping, the sky is the limit.
Speaking of claps, I think Miles has Stansbury beat as he has mastered the splayed finger clap...wish I had a picture.
Speaking of claps, I think Miles has Stansbury beat as he has mastered the splayed finger clap...wish I had a picture.
I realize this is all hypothetical but winning an Overall SEC title is a big freaking deal any year. Hell we only have 2 since integration.Ole Miss has none. To me you cannot leave out the overall conference champ and take the SECT champ plus 2 or 3 teams that finished behind the first place team no matter what the RPI says. Common sense has to come into play to an extent.
on a limb...they are playing Kentucky.
Still, they are the defacto West leader now, because the West sux so bad.
I think we are going to win the West going away...I have not seen enough of LSU yet to comment intelligently.
Still, they are the defacto West leader now, because the West sux so bad.
I think we are going to win the West going away...I have not seen enough of LSU yet to comment intelligently.
our team suspended. I think that is what is going to happen. I'm not sure about winning overall , and nto sure if we will win the tourneey...that's hard to predict...but I think we go 12-4 and we get in based on ahving all the players out that early.
Hanmudog said:
In theory you could if you thought that the team from the weaker division likely would've finished 2-3 games back of the conference title had they played in the tougher division.
That was the point. I think you'd have to do some damage to show that you were at least equal to the top teams in the East, because I'm sure the top teams from the East will be pulling a 6-0 against the West, at worst a 5-1.