RPI sitting at 49. Remaining schedule..

[HuntDawg]

The nonconference schedule will be fine if we win 14-15 games in SEC play….which is all you can ask for. SEC teams don’t need an OOC full of juggernauts. You just can’t load it up with boat anchors like we did 2 years ago.

If you think our current OOC slate with an SOS of 162 is bad, consider that 2 years ago it was 275. 113 spots worse than we are now. Let that sink in. We literally would have needed 16-17 wins just to make a regional. Arkansas had a similarly poor SOS, dominated it, won 18 SEC games…..and didn’t even host.

The Non conference is fine if the goal is to squeeze in on the bubble and leave little to no room for error in the conference season... and also give up your chance at a host spot.

All it would have taken is one quality OOC opponent instead of StMary's and our RPI is probably in the 20s right now.

 

[615dawg]

More that I look at it we are going to have to win the home series and hope that we get at least one sweep of Auburn/Alabama/Missouri.

Need to cancel the UNA mid-week game.

 

[HuntDawg]

Which means it’s just another thing this staff is bad at.

GIve Ole Miss credit for figuring out not to play those RPI drains. No Jackson State or Alcorn State on their schedule.

 

[Perd Hapley]

The Non conference is fine if the goal is to squeeze in on the bubble and leave little to no room for error in the conference season... and also give up your chance at a host spot.

All it would have taken is one quality OOC opponent instead of StMary's and our RPI is probably in the 20s right now.

You aren’t going to host most years without 17-20 regular season SEC wins regardless, no matter how good your out of conference slate is. That was never in the cards for this team. Either way, you are going to almost always sink or swim hosting-wise by what you do in SEC play unless you play an abominable OOC schedule like both us and Arkansas did in 2022. 2013 was one exception for us, we went 16-14 SEC….but had both an extremely strong nonconference schedule and we did very well against it. Only lost 2 nonconference games total, and never lost a midweek game. Flip side of that coin was 2014 where we won 18 SEC games but had a horrendous OOC, and lost twice to 17ing Holy Cross.

I do agree about the St. Mary’s series. Hate that we scheduled them. I don’t think we’d be in the 20’s, but we’d sure be in better shape just by scheduling a team in the 150-200 range for that weekend. The rule of thumb is to avoid the SWAC and tiny schools from the Northeast at all costs. And in our case, also add UNA to that list.

 

[Drebin]

The RPI will absolutely be fine at 15-15 or 14-16.

Getting to that point is another story.

High 40s? No, absolutely, it won't. With a .500 record, we'll need our RPI up closer to 40.

 

[Perd Hapley]

High 40s? No, absolutely, it won't. With a .500 record, we'll need our RPI up closer to 40.

Historically, you won’t ever find an SEC baseball team that goes .500 in conference play with an RPI outside the Top 40. That’s pretty much the 2-3 seed cut line when you consider that some high RPI teams won’t make it due to being under .500 overall, or have a really poor record in SEC play (Auburn, OM, Florida….looking at you). So yes, in regards to simply making the postseason, it will be fine. If you had bigger expectations than that for improvement after the past 2 years, I don’t know what to tell you.

But again, easier said than done. I’m also just going to throw the Governor’s Cup in there and say we have 16 remaining SEC games. Average opponent RPI in those 16 is games is 33, so there’s plenty of opportunity for improvement yet. We need to win 8 of those 16 at minimum. It’s not gonna be easy.

ETA: For the last 3 years (which is as far back as WarrenNolan archive goes), the worst RPI for an SEC team that finished 14-16 or better is 29. We will not be sweating it at all if we win 8 of 16 against the remaining SEC plus the Gov. Cup.

 

[Drebin]

Historically, you won’t ever find an SEC baseball team that goes .500 in conference play with an RPI outside the Top 40. That’s pretty much the 2-3 seed cut line when you consider that some high RPI teams won’t make it due to being under .500 overall, or have a really poor record in SEC play (Auburn, OM, Florida….looking at you). So yes, in regards to simply making the postseason, it will be fine. If you had bigger expectations than that for improvement after the past 2 years, I don’t know what to tell you.

But again, easier said than done. I’m also just going to throw the Governor’s Cup in there and say we have 16 remaining SEC games. Average opponent RPI in those 16 is games is 33, so there’s plenty of opportunity for improvement yet. We need to win 8 of those 16 at minimum. It’s not gonna be easy.

well, this is an easy hill for you to die on since there's no danger in you dying, because we're clearly not going to get there.

And I will say this regarding the last sentence in your first paragraph critical of me having bigger expectations for improvement: This is Mississippi State. We just won a natty three years ago after four straight years in Omaha. Getting to the CWS is what we do here. If you are a fan of MSU baseball, your minimum expectation every season should be hosting a regional. That is the minimum expectation. If a guy can't do that EVERY YEAR, his a55 needs to be out of here on the first thing smoking. And just so we're clear, this is the third consecutive season.

 

[Perd Hapley]

And I will say this regarding the last sentence in your first paragraph critical of me having bigger expectations for improvement: This is Mississippi State. We just won a natty three years ago after four straight years in Omaha. Getting to the CWS is what we do here.

Actually just 3 straight years. 12 total years in the CWS which is pretty much middle of the pack in our league. It’s not “what we do here” any more than what they do at LSU, Florida, Vandy, Texas, Arkansas, OM, South Carolina, and now even Tennessee.

If you are a fan of MSU baseball, your minimum expectation every season should be hosting a regional. That is the minimum expectation. If a guy can't do that EVERY YEAR, his a55 needs to be out of here on the first thing smoking.

So….the “minimum expectation” is doing something we only did 6 times in the 23 years of the 64 team format, even before the rough patch of the past 2 years? Seriously? There is not a single college baseball program in the country that has even MADE the regionals every year since the 64 team format was introduced. Let alone hosted. FSU is the only program that’s missed only once. Even LSU has had multiple years that they didn’t even make the field in the past 25 years.

You need to stop wafting in the LFL grill smoke and lay off the Thunder and Lightning documentaries and look at reality. This isn’t 1985 anymore. We’re a Top 15 program nationally but probably not even Top 6 in our own conference, which makes things extremely difficult when you talk about things like hosting a regional every year….as it does for everyone else in our league.

And just so we're clear, this is the third consecutive season.

If its the 3rd consecutive season of no postseason, Lemonis is gone and there’s not really any disputing that.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Our RPI is 57 now. We might need 16 SEC wins to get in. Or at least 15 plus a win or two in Hoover. 15 win SEC teams have been left out before. 2015 Mizzou, 2016 Kentucky and Bama.

 

[Drebin]

Actually just 3 straight years. 12 total years in the CWS which is pretty much middle of the pack in our league. It’s not “what we do here” any more than what they do at LSU, Florida, Vandy, Texas, Arkansas, OM, South Carolina, and now even Tennessee.



So….the “minimum expectation” is doing something we only did 6 times in the 23 years of the 64 team format, even before the rough patch of the past 2 years? Seriously? There is not a single college baseball program in the country that has even MADE the regionals every year since the 64 team format was introduced. Let alone hosted. FSU is the only program that’s missed only once. Even LSU has had multiple years that they didn’t even make the field in the past 25 years.

You need to stop wafting in the LFL grill smoke and lay off the Thunder and Lightning documentaries and look at reality. This isn’t 1985 anymore. We’re a Top 15 program nationally but probably not even Top 6 in our own conference, which makes things extremely difficult when you talk about things like hosting a regional every year….as it does for everyone else in our league.


If its the 3rd consecutive season of no postseason, Lemonis is gone and there’s not really any disputing that.

Yeah, this post is a collective fail. Enjoy your mediocrity.

 

[HuntDawg]

minimum for a 14-16 team is 29 RPI for the past 3 seasons is an extremely small sample. As stated above there have been 15 win SEC teams left out before.

A Major factor that has to be thrown in here is that we dodge out of the east: Kentucky and Tennessee who are 3 and 7 RPI wise and we play Mizzou whose RPI is 88. So basically we are playing the easiest EAST schedule we could possibly play on top of playing one of the worst non conference schedules.

I'd be more than willing to bet. That if we go 14-16 our RPI will be higher than 29.

If we go
3-0 vs Auburn
0-3 vs Vandy
0-3 vs Arkansas
2-1 vs Mizzou
2-1 vs Alabama

Thats the 14-16 your seeking.. and that result will for sure have us above 29 RPI wise.

 

[The Peeper]

The Warren Nolan predictor is completely worthless. There is absolutely no point in even discussing it. Before a single game was played, it said we’d be something comical like 6-24 in the SEC. After the UGA series, said we’d be 16-14. Now just 3 games later (1 of which we won on the road), it says 10-20. Literally took 6 previously predicted wins away after just 2 straight losses. Makes no sense.

Same reason preseason conference predictions, bowl predictions, playoff predictions, etc etc are utter garbage and only intended to sell clicks or magazines.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Yeah, this post is a collective fail. Enjoy your mediocrity.

I’ll try. Enjoy your completely baseless entitlement.

 

[8dog]

I ran some RPI numbers (All the data is available but Opponents SOS but you can solve for that). Plenty of home losses that are inexcusable. But if you just flip 2 of them to wins, we are round 36. If you flip 3 of them to wins, we are around 28th. Easy to find 3 games we should not have lost at home.

 

[The Peeper]

That means we just need to avoid a sweep at either Vandy or Arkansas.

No Jackson State or Alcorn State on their schedule.

Central Arkansas, yikes.....

 

[Perd Hapley]

minimum for a 14-16 team is 29 RPI for the past 3 seasons is an extremely small sample. As stated above there have been 15 win SEC teams left out before.

A Major factor that has to be thrown in here is that we dodge out of the east: Kentucky and Tennessee who are 3 and 7 RPI wise and we play Mizzou whose RPI is 88. So basically we are playing the easiest EAST schedule we could possibly play on top of playing one of the worst non conference schedules.

I'd be more than willing to bet. That if we go 14-16 our RPI will be higher than 29.

If we go
3-0 vs Auburn
0-3 vs Vandy
0-3 vs Arkansas
2-1 vs Mizzou
2-1 vs Alabama

Thats the 14-16 your seeking.. and that result will for sure have us above 29 RPI wise.

It’s the biggest sample size I could get quickly. Which 15 win SEC teams have been left out before? What was their overall record?

Not saying at all we’ll be guaranteed to be Top 29, but I think it gives a lot of context as to what the margin is, and confirms we’ll easily be in the Top 40….which will assure us a bid. Current RPI calculation right now only includes 15 conference games and 22 nonconference. It’s probably going up regardless once we fill out the slate, just from the remaining schedule. SEC play is a rising tide that lifts all boats.

 

[patdog]

I ran some RPI numbers (All the data is available but Opponents SOS but you can solve for that). Plenty of home losses that are inexcusable. But if you just flip 2 of them to wins, we are round 36. If you flip 3 of them to wins, we are around 28th. Easy to find 3 games we should not have lost at home.

You're just fooling yourself if you play that game. EVERY team could improve their RPI substantially if you flipped a few of their worst losses to wins. Or would go down substantially if you flipped a few of their better wins to losses (nobody every seems to want to play the game that way though). Fact is, we are who we are, our RPI is about right for this team. Definite improvement over the last 2 years. But this is what a down year should be at Mississippi State, not what the best season in 3 years should be.

 

[8dog]

You're just fooling yourself if you play that game. EVERY team could improve their RPI substantially if you flipped a few of their worst losses to wins. Or would go down substantially if you flipped a few of their better wins to losses (nobody every seems to want to play the game that way though). Fact is, we are who we are, our RPI is about right for this team. Definite improvement over the last 2 years. But this is what a down year should be at Mississippi State, not what the best season in 3 years should be.

I’m not trying to argue we are better than we are. I’m trying to show how poor performance was also a huge RPI ding in addition to the schedule itself.

 

[patdog]

It’s the biggest sample size I could get quickly. Which 15 win SEC teams have been left out before? What was their overall record?

Not saying at all we’ll be guaranteed to be Top 29, but I think it gives a lot of context as to what the margin is, and confirms we’ll easily be in the Top 40….which will assure us a bid. Current RPI calculation right now only includes 15 conference games and 22 nonconference. It’s probably going up regardless once we fill out the slate, just from the remaining schedule. SEC play is a rising tide that lifts all boats.

2015 - Mizzou 15-15, KY 14-15 left out
2016 - KY 15-15, Bama 15-15 left out
2017 - Mizzou 14-16 left out

 

[HuntDawg]

It’s the biggest sample size I could get quickly. Which 15 win SEC teams have been left out before? What was their overall record?

Not saying at all we’ll be guaranteed to be Top 29, but I think it gives a lot of context as to what the margin is, and confirms we’ll easily be in the Top 40….which will assure us a bid. Current RPI calculation right now only includes 15 conference games and 22 nonconference. It’s probably going up regardless once we fill out the slate, just from the remaining schedule. SEC play is a rising tide that lifts all boats.

2015 Mizzou (30-28, 15-15), 2016 Kentucky (34-23, 15-15), 2016 Alabama (32-26, 15-15)

The sec does a good job of lifting all boats like you said. However, we again miss two of the biggest tide risers in UT and UK. And have the biggest drain on the schedule in Missouri.

 

[HuntDawg]

2015 - Mizzou 15-15, KY 14-15 left out
2016 - KY 15-15, Bama 15-15 left out
2017 - Mizzou 14-16 left out

Just did a quick search.. all those teams had RPIs above 40. So its for sure possible to have an RPI above 40, and still have a good SEC record.

Mizzou in 2017-- went 36-23, RPI of 49. They even won a game in Hoover.

So its very possible.

 

[Perd Hapley]

2015 Mizzou (30-28, 15-15), 2016 Kentucky (34-23, 15-15), 2016 Alabama (32-26, 15-15)

The sec does a good job of lifting all boats like you said. However, we again miss two of the biggest tide risers in UT and UK. And have the biggest drain on the schedule in Missouri.

And I’d say in all those cases you’d find something wrong that goes far beyond a weak non-conference schedule.

2015 Mizzou was 30-28. #57 in RPI because they were barely over .500…..they lost too many games overall.

2016 Alabama was only 32-26, #63 in RPI, also just lost double-digit nonconference games.

2016 Kentucky was not 34-23, they were 32-25. #70 RPI. Again, just not a good enough overall record.

If we end up with 32 wins or less but still have a 15-15 regular season like those teams did, it will mean all of the following happened:

1) 8-7 finish in SEC play
2) Loss or cancellation against Memphis.
3) Loss or cancellation against UNA.
4) Loss or cancellation in the Governor’s Cup.
5) 0-fer in Hoover

Those things aren’t all gonna happen. We’re simply outside of the scope of reasonable possibility to be left out of the regionals with a 15-15 mark.

And I’m not saying our out of conference schedule was good. It could have been a lot better, particularly just by changing only the MSM series to a semi-competitive opponent. I’m also not saying we did well against it, that obviously could have been better, too.

But, the schedule was good enough for us to make the field without having to be world beaters in SEC play to get to the postseason. And, in spite of the tough losses, we’ve done enough thus far to get a bid with a .500 SEC record. That could obviously change if we do something crazy like lose to UNA. But as of right now, that’s where it stands.

 

[HuntDawg]

And I’d say in all those cases you’d find something wrong that goes far beyond a weak non-conference schedule.

2015 Mizzou was 30-28. #57 in RPI because they were barely over .500…..they lost too many games overall.

2016 Alabama was only 32-26, #63 in RPI, also just lost double-digit nonconference games.

2016 Kentucky was not 34-23, they were 32-25. #70 RPI. Again, just not a good enough overall record.

If we end up with 32 wins or less but still have a 15-15 regular season like those teams did, it will mean all of the following happened:

1) 8-7 finish in SEC play
2) Loss or cancellation against Memphis.
3) Loss or cancellation against UNA.
4) Loss or cancellation in the Governor’s Cup.
5) 0-fer in Hoover

Those things aren’t all gonna happen. We’re simply outside of the scope of reasonable possibility to be left out of the regionals with a 15-15 mark.

And I’m not saying our out of conference schedule was good. It could have been a lot better, particularly just by changing only the MSM series to a semi-competitive opponent. I’m also not saying we did well against it, that obviously could have been better, too.

But, the schedule was good enough for us to make the field without having to be world beaters in SEC play to get to the postseason. And, in spite of the tough losses, we’ve done enough thus far to get a bid with a .500 SEC record. That could obviously change if we do something crazy like lose to UNA. But as of right now, that’s where it stands.

Ive said 15 wins is the key.

But RPI will be a big player as well. The 32 win mark isnt a magic number. Mizzou was left out with 36 wins.

15 wins and an RPI above 40. We are very much bubble and possibly the wrong side of it..... and i think that is very possible, certainly not outside reasonable thinking.. History showed us last season where at large teams with lower RPI's got into the torunament over teams with better conference records with higher RPIs inside their own conference. Example North Carolina made it over Notre Dame last season, despite UNC going below 500 in conference and winning less games overall. And right now our RPI is at the bottom of our league. Cant rule out the committee chosing a say 14 win Ole Miss team us due to the discrepancy in RPI. Or a 13 win alabama team whose RPI is currently 35 points ahead of ours

We have 3 non conference games left, yes the game at ole miss is good, but wont even out the game at home against UNA. We are banking a ton on the SEC bolstering our RPI, and im not sure it will that much this season due to who we played and who we didnt play.

 

[patdog]

Ive said 15 wins is the key.

But RPI will be a big player as well. The 32 win mark isnt a magic number. Mizzou was left out with 36 wins.

15 wins and an RPI above 40. We are very much bubble and possibly the wrong side of it..... and i think that is very possible, certainly not outside reasonable thinking.. History showed us last season where at large teams with lower RPI's got into the torunament over teams with better conference records with higher RPIs inside their own conference. Example North Carolina made it over Notre Dame last season, despite UNC going below 500 in conference and winning less games overall. And right now our RPI is at the bottom of our league.

We have 3 non conference games left, yes the game at ole miss is good, but wont even out the game at home against UNA. We are banking a ton on the SEC bolstering our RPI, and im not sure it will that much this season due to who we played and who we didnt play.

Our RPI will be 40+. Guaranteed. Home games vs AU, Bama & Mizzou aren’t going to help much. And UNA is another RPI killer. We’ll get in at 15-15 despite our RPI. 14-16 or another non-conference loss would make it tough though.

 

[HuntDawg]

Our RPI will be 40+. Guaranteed. Home games vs AU, Bama & Mizzou aren’t going to help much. And UNA is another RPI killer. We’ll get in at 15-15 despite our RPI. 14-16 or another non-conference loss would make it tough though.

And thats where i disagree.. and i'll even admit myself I'm wrong.

15-15, it honestly will come down to where we are in the RPI. If its high 40s. We wont get in.

Something to consider is if the SEC is going to bolster our RPI, they are going to bolster everyone elses in the leagues RPI. Again last season alone both in the big12 and the ACC.. teams with better RPIs despite worse conference records, got in over teams that had winning records (K-State 13-11) or 500 in league play (15-15 notre dame)

If the committee has to choose between:
15-15 MSU, with an RPI of 46-- we would be (33-22)
13-17 Ole Miss, with an RPI of 33-- they would be (30-24)
13-17 Alabama, with an RPI of 29-- they would be (33-22 or 34-21 if they win out mid-week)

I think wed get in over Ole Miss, but doubt Alabama... and Alabamas RPI isnt going to drop much period. Theyve got a series against #1 TxAm. Same for Ole Miss so its unlikey their RPI is going to tumble too much either

Of course it may not come down to that... but saying there are scenarios like this that play out all the time come selection day. So the 15-15 isnt going to trump a bad RPI.

 

[ETK99]

Make a regional- cool
Don't make a regional- get a new coach- Great!

 

[patdog]

And thats where i disagree.. and i'll even admit myself I'm wrong.

15-15, it honestly will come down to where we are in the RPI. If its high 40s. We wont get in.

Something to consider is if the SEC is going to bolster our RPI, they are going to bolster everyone elses in the leagues RPI. Again last season alone both in the big12 and the ACC.. teams with better RPIs despite worse conference records, got in over teams that had winning records (K-State 13-11) or 500 in league play (15-15 notre dame)

If the committee has to choose between:
15-15 MSU, with an RPI of 46-- we would be (33-22)
13-17 Ole Miss, with an RPI of 33-- they would be (30-24)
13-17 Alabama, with an RPI of 29-- they would be (33-22 or 34-21 if they win out mid-week)

I think wed get in over Ole Miss, but doubt Alabama... and Alabamas RPI isnt going to drop much period. Theyve got a series against #1 TxAm. Same for Ole Miss so its unlikey their RPI is going to tumble too much either

Of course it may not come down to that... but saying there are scenarios like this that play out all the time come selection day. So the 15-15 isnt going to trump a bad RPI.

If it’s all about RPI, we’re pretty much sunk already. Warren Nolan’s wildly fluctuating projections have swung 6 wins after that win over Alcorn & have us 16-14. Of course their predictions are garbage. But the math behind their predicted RPI should be solid. And the predicted RPI with a 16-14 SEC record is #47.

 

[HuntDawg]

If it’s all about RPI, we’re pretty much sunk already. Warren Nolan’s wildly fluctuating projections have swung 6 wins after that win over Alcorn & have us 16-14. Of course their predictions are garbage. But the math behind their predicted RPI should be solid. And the predicted RPI with a 16-14 SEC record is #47.

I think we end up canceling UNA which will help. There also the sec tournament.

Think only two teams last season were selected as at large bids with an RPI over 40 last season. So it for sure matters.

 

[patdog]

I think we end up canceling UNA which will help. There also the sec tournament.

Think only two teams last season were selected as at large bids with an RPI over 40 last season. So it for sure matters.

Should have cancelled Alcorn too. One thing I think we can all agree on is there is very little margin for more losses the rest of the season.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

D1 still projecting us a low 2 seed after yesterday, FYI. Although keep in mind they factor predictions for the future into that as well. So they must favor us to win 7-8 more games.

 

[HuntDawg]

D1 still projecting us a low 2 seed after yesterday, FYI. Although keep in mind they factor predictions for the future into that as well. So they must favor us to win 7-8 more games.

We were also predicted in the field at this time each of the past 2 seasons. We finished 3-12 and 5-10 those years.

projections at this point... mean virtually nothing

 

[OG Goat Holder]

We were also predicted in the field at this time each of the past 2 seasons. We finished 3-12 and 5-10 those years.

projections at this point... mean virtually nothing

I thought this was interesting, so I went back and looked. We were 22-15 (5-10) last year at this time, and in 2022, 22-16 (6-9). That will sober you up real quick.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

We were also predicted in the field at this time each of the past 2 seasons. We finished 3-12 and 5-10 those years.

projections at this point... mean virtually nothing

We also have a better record at this point than we did either of the last two years. I also think our schedule down the stretch is a little easier than the last two years.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

We could absolutely screw things up just the same as the last two years but we very much have a realistic postseason path.

 

[patdog]

We also have a better record at this point than we did either of the last two years. I also think our schedule down the stretch is a little easier than the last two years.

Agree. I think 7 more SEC wins is very attainable. Not because we've got what you would historically consider a .500 SEC team, but because those 3 home weekends are weak, weak, weak. We "should" win at least 6 of 9, and I doubt we get swept at both Vandy and Arkansas (heck, we may even take the Vandy series since they look to be a bit down themselves).

 

[HuntDawg]

2023: 22-15, 5-10 at this point
2022: 22-16, 6-9 at this point

Guess we are a game or two better... but very similar spot.

Everyone can play their way in OR out as of now. Everyone has an avenue. Even Auburn Whose 2-13.

 

[HuntDawg]

Agree. I think 7 more SEC wins is very attainable. Not because we've got what you would historically consider a .500 SEC team, but because those 3 home weekends are weak, weak, weak. We "should" win at least 6 of 9, and I doubt we get swept at both Vandy and Arkansas (heck, we may even take the Vandy series since they look to be a bit down themselves).

Agree, we've been rewarded with Mizzou and Auburn at home. If we cant win 7 or really 8 games with what we have left.. then Lemo needs to go.

B/t Auburn, Mizzou, Alabama all at home-- its hard to imagine how you cant win 6 games.
Meaning all you have to do is go 1-5 vs Arkansas and Vandy and you've got your 7 wins.

 

[Leodawg1990]

Still should be fired even if we make the tournament

HE SHOULD BE …CANNED

 

[ZombieKissinger]

I think we finish 9-6

Seems reasonable