I think 3-0 would make us one of the last four in, but what happens if a Butler or Gonzaga fails to win their conference tournament, someone takes our spot.
That being said, I see little difference in going 3-0 and winning one in the tournament, or losing to South Carolina and beating Auburn and Tennessee and then beating Florida in the SEC quarterfinal. We absolutely cannot afford a fifth sub-100 loss with only one top-50 win.
Those Big East teams with 10-11 losses need to stop winning. UConn, Louisville, South Florida. Would help to see a Rhode Island or Charlotte lose to a horrible team as well.
That being said, only once in the last ten years has the fourth rated RPI conference failed to get five teams in the tournament. Right now, we are the solid fifth team with really no chance of dropping to sixth. I'd like to see us become the fourth most attractive team. The easiest route to that was Florida but they went and beat Tennessee. They finish with Georgia, Vandy and Kentucky so its entirely possible that they could lose out or go 1-2. If we finish two games ahead of Florida over the last three (we go 3-0 while they go 1-2, or 2-1 and they go 0-3), we are in the tournament.
The other angle is the finish ahead of Tennessee in the conference pecking order. They have Kentucky, Arkansas and us left, plus we are tied with them. If they were to lose to Kentucky, beat Arkansas and lose to us and we were somehow able to beat USC and Auburn, then we are two games up on Tennessee with a head to head victory. Tennessee is a lock for the tournament with virtually the same record as us (20-7, 8-5 while we are 20-8, 8-5). The difference is while we were off losing to Rider and Western Kentucky, their slipups were against Purdue and Southern California. They also have a win over Kansas.
If we were able to finish effectively ahead of Tennessee or Florida, I think we are in. If we are the fifth team from the SEC when all is said and done, I think we're out. A combination of the above Florida and Tennessee scenarios would require a sacrifice to the sports gods.