Runs Created Update

[sleepy dawg]

I posted a Runs Created update about a week and half ago, and even though nobody cared, here's another update. For comparison, you can view the last one here: http://forums.sixpackspeak.com/showthread.php?106269

This time, I sorted by Runs Created Per 4 Plate appearances to shed more light on the over/under achievers. I also excluded anyone with less than 10 games played, or no hits.

When comparing this weeks to last weeks, we really are starting to see very little movement on average. Sam Frost definitely had the biggest gain from the previous week given his smaller sample size. The most obvious thing that stands out to me though, is not who should be playing more, but who should be playing less. With 41 games played, Demarcus Henderson just isn't getting it done at the plate. What say ye?

 

[patdog]

Henderson needs to sit and Robson/Armstrong platoon in left. Frost and Detz should DH and play 3rd.

 

[57stratdawg]

Agree about Henderson, but sometimes you only have to be better than the guy behind you. I'm surprised Trey Porter is so low. I'm really starting to like Robson. I think the game is finally starting to slow down (football term, but ya know) for him.

Against Bama the bottom of the lineup really did some damage (Robson, Frost, Bradford).

 

[Will James]

Demarcus and Porter have really really low BABIP. Porter will come around but I think Hendersons PT will be limited.

 

[Philly Dawg]

What is Porter's BABIP compared with last year?

 

[Will James]

What is Porter's BABIP compared with last year?

Ill have to get back to you. In a car currently, not driving.

Its an easy formula if you want to look it up. I think his SEc BABiP is in the low 200s right now.

 

[sleepy dawg]

What is Porter's BABIP compared with last year?

This year:
Derrick Armstrong 0.476
Tyler Fullerton 0.417
Sam Frost 0.413
Hunter Renfroe 0.387
Adam Frazier 0.355
Wes Rea 0.351
C.T. Bradford 0.346
Brett Pirtle 0.342
Mitch Slauter 0.339
Alex Detz 0.338
Demarcus Henderson 0.325
Jacob Robson 0.322
Nick Ammirati 0.314
Daryl Norris 0.304
Matthew Britton 0.286
Trey Porter 0.284 ---- Last year 0.276
Kyle Hann 0.273

 

[Will James]

I'll throw up the wOBA numbers later. That's probably the best stat to look at concerning your offensive production.

I also created the Will James stat which is 1.8*OBP + SLG - BABIP (generally OBP is considered 1.8 times as valuable as SLG) I'll throw that up too. I also want to look at wOBA - BABIP.

Im a nerd

 

[Philly Dawg]

It doesn't appear that we'd have much of an expectation that it will be significantly higher the rest of the season. Henderson hits lots of ground balls, but Porter hits lots of fly balls. Neither hit enough line drives.

 

[Will James]

It doesn't appear that we'd have much of an expectation that it will be significantly higher the rest of the season. Henderson hits lots of ground balls, but Porter hits lots of fly balls. Neither hit enough line drives.

Robson was down there too until last weekend. I predicted he would have a big weekend because it was low and voila. This weekend look for Porter to break out, he is statistically due.

 

[Will James]

SEC Only BABIP

Armstrong	0.667
Frost	0.435
Pirtle	0.394
Robson	0.385
Renfroe	0.365
Bradford	0.351
Rea	0.350
Ammirati	0.318
Frazier	0.283
Detz	0.257
Slauter	0.250
Porter	0.226
Henderson	0.222
Norris	0.077

<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>

 

[Will James]

wOBA on the season

Renfroe	0.517
Rea	0.383
Pirtle	0.381
Frost	0.376
Detz	0.370
Armstrong	0.360
Frazier	0.359
Slauter	0.348
Bradford	0.322
Porter	0.303
Henderson	0.300
Ammirati	0.297
Norris	0.288
Robson	0.288
Fullerton	0.278
Britton	0.244
Hann	0.232

<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>

 

[CadaverDawg]

Never would have thought Frazier's would be so low at this point in the year.

 

[Will James]

This stat I just made up this afternoon. It's wOBA - BABIP. I'm not sure what the results even mean. Basically it is the best all around offensive metric for results in wOBA then taking out the luck factor in BABIP. So maybe this stat is really how hitters should be judged? What do yall think? Here are the numbers.

Renfroe	0.129
Detz	0.034
Pirtle	0.034
Rea	0.026
Porter	0.019
Slauter	0.009
Frazier	-0.002
Bradford	-0.009
Ammirati	-0.013
Norris	-0.016
Henderson	-0.029
Robson	-0.034
Frost	-0.037
Hann	-0.040
Britton	-0.042
Armstrong	-0.114
Fullerton	-0.139

<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>

 

[GOOD_DAWG2.0]

Armstrong and Norris both have abnormal numbers. Armstrong will trend downward sometime and Norris will definitely trend upward sometime soon.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Armstrong and Norris both have abnormal numbers. Armstrong will trend downward sometime and Norris will definitely trend upward sometime soon.

I thought that too early on.....but now I'm starting to think Norris is done. Hopefully he will stick around next year instead of transferring or something, and he will work hard to improve. Armstrong isn't a bad player, but he seems feast or famine. He either gets a base hit, or doesn't take the damn bat off his shoulder and watches fastballs right down the middle. Armstrong seems to be a far better option from the right side than Henderson right now though.

 

[haildearoldstate]

I agree, especially considering he got off to such a hot start and had hit .370+

last year. Really Surprising.

 

[sleepy dawg]

That is an interesting stat, but like you, I'm not sure what it means. On the surface, it sounds good, but BABIP is really more of a red flag indicator. If the batter has a really high or really low BABIP, it is a sign of an anomaly in the sabermetric. The batter will then be much more likely to move toward the middle.

 

[Will James]

That is an interesting stat, but like you, I'm not sure what it means. On the surface, it sounds good, but BABIP is really more of a red flag indicator. If the batter has a really high or really low BABIP, it is a sign of an anomaly in the sabermetric. The batter will then be much more likely to move toward the middle.

I think the formula has merit, even more merit than I originally thought. However, this will only be found by some really deep math. I think the wOBA needs a variable to be multiplied by. And I have absolutely no idea how to come up with that number.

So the true formula will look something like.... x(wOBA) - BABIP