Rut Row Raggy
- Thread starter Indndawg
- Start date
predicted to form off the coast of South America and head through the Gulf. As of right now, it's nothing. I would imagine that in the next five days we'll know if it's anything significant. If those projections are correct, it would be a hurricane. But it's hard to predict two weeks worth of weather.
Then you know nothing about weather. It just spells out the fact that the models are predicting some sort of low to form in that part of the world. This does not indicate wind shear or other factors that could rip a storm apart. Low pressure in the gulf does not always spell out hurricane. However, we are in the part of the year where low pressure systems in the gulf do need to be watched. Dr. Wax say "anything past 3 days is magic". Apply this as being way way past magic.
That is all
That is all
It combines the NOAA's predictions as well as many others. Best site I have seen. I still think you are crazy for even guessing on a storm 14 days out.
I use this to track storms when I am going off shore fishing for a few days.
Stormpulse
I use this to track storms when I am going off shore fishing for a few days.
Stormpulse
why after one click about the time that apocalyptic mass passes over the illinois area all the green on the map disappears? and then reappears on the next click
Once it enters the gulf it follows the same track Katrina did. Now, yes it is downright impossible to predict 14 days out, but holy crap, if that thing does anything what it's projected to do, the Waveland/Bay St. Louis/Lakeshore area is 17ed....again.jamdawg96 said:
Thanks for the warning, at least
Meteorologist here..I got my meteorology degree here at State this past semester, worked at the National Weather Service this past summer as a SCEP, and am now in graduate school in meteorology and GIS here at MSU so I follow the models closely..My roomate is a meteorology instructor and is currently in NYC about to fly to Bermuda to chase Hurricane Igor. He has been in Katrina in Gulfport. His videos are outstanding:http://www.youtube.com/user/LDCTSTORMCHASER<div>
</div><div>Anyway, I know Dr. Wax was my advisor for 4 years. I agree anything past 3 days is magic or as James Spann says "voodoo country." However, the pattern is changing where this could be a real possibility. Lets see first where a low forms if its near the Lesser Antilles and makes it in the Caribbean and if a massive and strong high pressure builds over the central Atlantic behind Igor and the front leaving the northern US, then the track will be to the west and likely into the Gulf. Shear is currently very low and will likely be low as we are in a very strong La Nina currently. Water and energy from the Caribbean and Gulf have not been tapped into whatsoever, and w/ the high over the eastern seaboard the pressure would fall even more over the Caribbean and Gulf, which sets up a track for a tropical wave to explode into a massive system very rapidly. The upper level pattern predicted in the GFS model he is showing has great upper level outflow, which when I say great I mean thats not a good sign because it could evacuate mass or clouds away from the center in the upper levels of the atmosphere and therefore the pressures lower at the sea surface and the mass of air at the surface has to rise upwards to fill that void of mass and its a reoccurring cycle. Anyway its been showing this for awhile w/ the GFS. European weather model has it going out to sea but I don't agree b/c the fronts will be farther north as this ridge of high pressure is going to be very amplified and large and strong. So key points: very warm water gives lower pressure and likely track toward Caribbean and Gulf, the high in the central atlantic won't break down like it has that has kept Danielle, Earl, and Igor curving out to sea, the high also will lower pressures in the Caribbean and Gulf. Shear is and will stay low over most of the region of development as we are in La Nina. And another is called the MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation. When it gets to octaves 8, 1, or 2 and outside the circle it means upward motion, over air that already wants to rise, in the western Atlantic and Caribbean. I think the pattern is very close to changing. Lets let a tropical wave get its act together and head toward the Lesser Antilles and if it makes it in the Caribbean, watch out.</div>
</div><div>Anyway, I know Dr. Wax was my advisor for 4 years. I agree anything past 3 days is magic or as James Spann says "voodoo country." However, the pattern is changing where this could be a real possibility. Lets see first where a low forms if its near the Lesser Antilles and makes it in the Caribbean and if a massive and strong high pressure builds over the central Atlantic behind Igor and the front leaving the northern US, then the track will be to the west and likely into the Gulf. Shear is currently very low and will likely be low as we are in a very strong La Nina currently. Water and energy from the Caribbean and Gulf have not been tapped into whatsoever, and w/ the high over the eastern seaboard the pressure would fall even more over the Caribbean and Gulf, which sets up a track for a tropical wave to explode into a massive system very rapidly. The upper level pattern predicted in the GFS model he is showing has great upper level outflow, which when I say great I mean thats not a good sign because it could evacuate mass or clouds away from the center in the upper levels of the atmosphere and therefore the pressures lower at the sea surface and the mass of air at the surface has to rise upwards to fill that void of mass and its a reoccurring cycle. Anyway its been showing this for awhile w/ the GFS. European weather model has it going out to sea but I don't agree b/c the fronts will be farther north as this ridge of high pressure is going to be very amplified and large and strong. So key points: very warm water gives lower pressure and likely track toward Caribbean and Gulf, the high in the central atlantic won't break down like it has that has kept Danielle, Earl, and Igor curving out to sea, the high also will lower pressures in the Caribbean and Gulf. Shear is and will stay low over most of the region of development as we are in La Nina. And another is called the MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation. When it gets to octaves 8, 1, or 2 and outside the circle it means upward motion, over air that already wants to rise, in the western Atlantic and Caribbean. I think the pattern is very close to changing. Lets let a tropical wave get its act together and head toward the Lesser Antilles and if it makes it in the Caribbean, watch out.</div>
ischilling. Just none of what we filmed in the first 90 seconds is there anymore...at all. The gulfport grand, the island view pool, the oak trees along the median, the ihop, USS Camile, all gone. The thing I forget the most is how green it all used to be. Immediately after it was brown and desolate, and even today I'd say 50 or more % of those trees aren't there.
I would think this is one of the very few sports message boards that have their own official weather commentary.
Need to reschedule his 3:00t-time that Saturday afternoon for a 2:15 t-time to avoid that shower on the 13th hole?
just trying to understand these weather things here....
just trying to understand these weather things here....
Umm do u know my roomate? lol cause somehow this response sounds like u do ha..Oh I agree he still has that windshield cracked and small hail dents in his car from tornado chasing...Update: He is in Bermuda getting ready for the landfall on Sunday..Also an update on the models: the morning run showed this still...I can't say this is for sure its way too far out. But in our Southeast Severe Storms Symposium today that we had yesterday and continues today, James Spann from Alabama talked and said has anyone seen the 12z GFS?<div>http://www.nco.ncep.noaa..../images/gfs_ten_324m.gif</div><div>
</div><div>Yeah he said thats "voodoo country" still but its a very important thing we continue to watch the trend w/ the models and then see if something forms in that stuff southeast of Igor. the storms are beginning to fire up so we'll see...As u can already tell, even w/ one day Karl strengthened in one day from a tropical storm to Cat 3 w/ 115 mph winds and the waters are deeper and warmer in the central Gulf than the southwest portion. If something comes in w/ a good upper level environment, its going to explode rapidly. Good example of this: Wilma in 2005. Went from a tropical storm to Category 5 in 12 hours...Dropped from 970mb to 884 mb in 12 hours..That is absolutely ridiculous..This is a situation where a storm could come in look like nothing like only a tropical storm, u wake up the next day and its a cat 4 or even possibly a cat 5. I do not want one tropical wave to come in the Gulf..whatsoever..Its bathwater out there almost 90 degrees...Lots of heat available for a monster to form...</div>
</div><div>Yeah he said thats "voodoo country" still but its a very important thing we continue to watch the trend w/ the models and then see if something forms in that stuff southeast of Igor. the storms are beginning to fire up so we'll see...As u can already tell, even w/ one day Karl strengthened in one day from a tropical storm to Cat 3 w/ 115 mph winds and the waters are deeper and warmer in the central Gulf than the southwest portion. If something comes in w/ a good upper level environment, its going to explode rapidly. Good example of this: Wilma in 2005. Went from a tropical storm to Category 5 in 12 hours...Dropped from 970mb to 884 mb in 12 hours..That is absolutely ridiculous..This is a situation where a storm could come in look like nothing like only a tropical storm, u wake up the next day and its a cat 4 or even possibly a cat 5. I do not want one tropical wave to come in the Gulf..whatsoever..Its bathwater out there almost 90 degrees...Lots of heat available for a monster to form...</div>
We have been watching this daily offshore. It will be a hurricane in a few days. Most models now take it to the Yucatan pennensula and then it will get picked up by a cold front and head northeast toward Northen Cuba or South Florida.</p>