Right, we just don't know. It'll be a pretty interesting debate, and is why I have a hard time believing anyone who says we're more than a 50/50 chance to host right now. Assuming MSU and Ark are the options for a 4th spot, we have no idea of knowing if the comittee will punish Ark for their soft SEC schedule (which they had no control over), or if they'll reward MSU for playing a murder's row. It seems like a total coin flip, and a good case could be made either way.
I will say if the season ended right now the two biggest games out of MSU and Ark's schedule combined is probably them dropping two at Nebraska. That seems to be the largest outlier on either team's resume.
Arkansas had full control over scheduling 13 games against terrible teams and losing two of them in the nonconference. That is what they will have to point their finger at that prevents them from hosting. Their terrible RPI has very little to do with the SEC schedule -- when Arky's schedule inside the conference is no easier than many of the other western division teams. They had to play @ SC and @ UK.
Nebraska the largest outlier? That was two top 50 RPI losses on the road. Hardly what is holding them back.
Resumes as of today:
Arkansas - 29-15(13-7), rpi 55, 10-11 vs rpi top 50, 11-2 vs rpi sub 200, 6-2 vs rpi 51-100.
MSU - 33-13(10-11), rpi 11, 8-10 vs rpi top 50, 3-0 vs rpi sub 200, 7-3 vs rpi 51-100.
Our 3 "sub 50" losses are to #55 Arky, who will finish in the top 50 -- and Auburn, who will as well -- meaning we've got one remaining opportunity for a "bad" loss on the entire season with Oral Roberts.
Cross-division for SEC west:
MSU - Florida, South Carolina, @Vandy, @UK - zero layups
OM - @Florida, Vandy, @Tennessee, UK - one layup
Arky - @South Carolina, @Georgia, @UK, Tennessee - two layups
LSU - @Mizzou, UK, South Carolina, Florida - one layup
aTm - @South Carolina, Mizzou, @Tennessee, Georgia - three layups
Auburn - Georgia, @Mizzou, @Florida, Vandy - two layups
Bama - Tennessee, @Georgia, Missouri, @Vandy - three layups
Per Boyd's, Arky needs to go 8-2 in their final 10 just to get into the RPI top 32. No SEC team in the modern era has hosted with an RPI worse than #23 -- a number that is mathematically already impossible for them to reach.