Sec upsets; week 9 edition
- Thread starter Confucius Say
- Start date
That is absolutely not how spreads are determined. If it happened to work with the two games you chose, that is purely coincidence.
The idea that a Vegas book maker is setting lines based on point differential without any respect to the quality of opponent is completely absurd. They'd be out of business in a week.
By the way, what you just described is something even Alabama couldn't do even when they were going heavy sets. We still never brought extra help into the box, and we still managed to keep them below 4 YPC.
I also find it funny that LSU is going to score 31 on us. We've only allowed 20 points once this year, and A&M only got to 20 points by scoring 2 TDs in the 4th quarter against a nickel defense that was giving them underneath routes, one of those TDs coming on the final play of the game.
I'd bet my mortgage LSU doesn't hit 30 points, and I'd bet a fairly large sum LSU won't even hit 20. A team without a QB is all of a sudden going to light up a defense that hasn't let anyone score on it much this year? That's some of the best wishful thinking I've ever seen.
That is not the only way they come up with a spread. And its no coincidence how close those numbers will be with more than just those "2" games. Is it a coincidence that Auburn and Oregon fall along those lines also, to name a few? I have done that for many years and is a capping tool. When Im making my lines for games I always check the PF/PA. I mentioned there are other intangibles involved as well. I said te spread is derived from that, a root or origin. Im not arguing just telling you what I see. Can you tell us how they come up with the spread? And the O/U? I want to know
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Why would yards AFTER catch be an indicator? Bubble screens rely heavily on YAC to be effective. However, you can get a good bit of YAC, often much bigger chunks, by going down field, though many down field routes are catch and tackle plays.
I would think YAC would be the least effective indicator of down field passing.
That said, I've watched all of our games, and I can tell you that due to our lack of use of the tempo offense this year, the bubble screen has been seldom used, and the majority of our routes have been down field. The YPC of our slot guys should tell you that. If we were using the bubble like we did last year, Adeboyjo and Core would be around 10 YPC or less right now. We aren't doing that.
YAC are the only stat to measure downfield vs. short dump passes, and YAC is exactly what I hoped you had to prove your point.
If Bo had 1000 yds passing, and your receivers have 500 YAC, then yeah, maybe you're airing it out a little. But if there are 800 YAC then your receivers are awesome and your QB just flips them the ball.
Doesn't matter. We'll kick your tails anyway.
If Bo had 1000 yds passing, and your receivers have 500 YAC, then yeah, maybe you're airing it out a little. But if there are 800 YAC then your receivers are awesome and your QB just flips them the ball.
Doesn't matter. We'll kick your tails anyway.
This. The Vegas lines are set based on bets, not point differential. The lines just happen to be pretty accurate indicators on public perception of how a game might go, but they could care less about the teams and how they think they might do... It's all based on money. They move the line to where people will bet evenly on both sides of it. That's it.
Wow...just wow.
I guess they over look those stats when putting in the data into the algorithms that create the line.
" As really smart people doing complex math jumped into the market, the lines have followed, meaning that the books are more concerned with where the syndicates with computer models are likely to be betting than shading their lines toward public perception."
I guess they over look those stats when putting in the data into the algorithms that create the line.
" As really smart people doing complex math jumped into the market, the lines have followed, meaning that the books are more concerned with where the syndicates with computer models are likely to be betting than shading their lines toward public perception."
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Ultimately, it doesn't matter what the stats say, our offense is much different this year just by pure observation.
As I said last year, our offense at the end of the year was extraordinarily easy to stop because we couldn't run between the tackles or throw the ball down the field. That's not at all our offense this year, and the majority of our production this year has come in the vertical passing game. Feel free to watch us tomorrow night. LSU has a decent pass defense statistically, but I'm betting by the second half we'll have found somewhere to exploit in the secondary, and we'll be doing so.
You're right that LSU is not going to get 31 points without Bad Bo showing up in a big way and also probably some special team 17ups by UM.
But if Alabama couldn't run on y'all, how did Yeldon finish with a 6.5 yd/carry average? I didn't get to see much of the second half. Did Yeldon have one 80 yard run or something? It seems to me like Bama had a winning formula but Kiffen was just too smart or too impatient to grind out drives because it would take a few quarters to payoff.
The odds makers make the lines. The book makers then take them and usually run them by their favorite "whales" (big betters) and also factor in known betting tendencies related to various teams (along with some other minor calculations) before they put out a betting line. It usually doesn`t ever vary over a point and a half from the odds maker`s line at the opening and will move from there if there is a betting over load one way or the other. The odds makers don`t care how betters will perceive their lines and the bookies just use the odds makers lines as a starting point but don`t stray too far from them right off.
Most of that came on one drive, where they caught us in a bad look, went tempo, and we didn't get adjusted. They got 49 of their 168 on the ground on that drive, and Yeldon had 45 of his 123 on that drive.
Like I said before, a lot of Yeldon's other work came when Bama went with heavy sets, and we simply refused to add men to the box to combat their personnel. They tried to bait us into bringing players down to the line, so they could open up our secondary for Cooper. We kept 6 in the box and let them run a little bit, counting on our defense to be able to hit them for a negative play at some point to stall out their drives. It worked too, with the exception of the one drive where they caught us in something and hit us with tempo. Once we adjusted, they couldn't sustain much the rest of the way. They could get a drive going by using their numbers to get some ground work done, but eventually we'd hit them for a negative play, and they couldn't simply pound it anymore, and the drive would stall.
The only difference with LSU is that we don't have to stay as honest with them like we did Bama, because they don't have a Blake Sims that can punish you in play action. My guess is we'll commit more to the box against LSU than we did against Bama, knowing they'll be in a bad way if they have to throw, especially against our corners that have been excellent this year.
We were willing to let Bama try to grind it out, knowing we could eventually create a negative play and force them into a passing situation. Essentially, I'm saying that a lot of the ground yardage we gave up to Bama was simply by design of the defensive scheme that day. We dared them to run, believing they couldn't sustain a length of the field drive doing it, and it worked.
Basically, since we fixed our issue with fits after the ULL game, we've been stingy with the ground defense regardless of the style of offense we've faced. I'm confident we'll hold LSU to under 200 yards on the ground tomorrow night, probably even less than 150. They'll need at least 250 to have a chance. That, or they'll need help via defensive/special teams scores.
I'm more curious to see how we'll match up with Auburn. My guess is we'll do just what we did to Bama against them, just run base defense almost exclusively, try to hit our gaps and force them to try to win one on one somewhere rather than trying to take any single aspect of their offense away.
Arkansas covers
Missouri covers
Take LSU and the points
Take Carolina and the points
Alabama covers
MSU covers
Also, a small pet peeve. You people need to learn the lingo. The underdog doesn't "cover". You either take the favorite to cover the spread, or you take the underdog plus the points.
That is all.
covering...
forgive me for nit piccking but underdogs dont cover, they beat the spread. only favorites can cover.
forgive me for nit piccking but underdogs dont cover, they beat the spread. only favorites can cover.
Take UAB and points, Soo Pig wins
Take Vandy and the points, Missouri wins a game that is about 13-10
LSU gets run over by the bears (sorry) take the bears give the points
Auburn demolishes Carolina by 20+
Bama wins by 20+ over Tennessee
MSU wins by 17+ over KY
Take Vandy and the points, Missouri wins a game that is about 13-10
LSU gets run over by the bears (sorry) take the bears give the points
Auburn demolishes Carolina by 20+
Bama wins by 20+ over Tennessee
MSU wins by 17+ over KY
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