Hi Gang:
As you recall, last week at this time, I thought I had it all figured out. But as you may have noticed a couple of teams pulled off surprises, so now who knows what to think? I should have simply stuck to the idea of the home teams all winning and had I done so, I would have gotten the Lee and Draft wins correct.
So now, those four "middle teams" that I mentioned (Gap, Lee, Page and Wilson) are all as tightly bound as they were before and now you can possibly even add Stuarts Draft as an outside playoff possibility in 2-B. East Rock and Luray seem to be shoo-ins, but I have a hard time picturing more than three others making it, so over these remaining four weeks of the regular season, a series of games matching these teams, including one this week, will sort it all out.
But for now, let's focus on this week's four district games. However, you can forget the home team's chances for the most part this week, as three of the four games "should" be won by the visitors and even the fourth one has the potential to come down to the wire.
The one thing that is 100% certain is that R E Lee will not win this week, for the simple reason that they have the week off. Time will tell whether they come out as re-energized as they did this time last year, and if they will be as mean again as they were to my poor little Gladiators last time around. (Those two will meet in Greenville on the 19th.)
But for now, let's hope that the rain they are talking about comes and goes by Thursday night, so that we can have decent football weather for Friday. Here is my take on this week's games:
East Rock at Buffalo Gap: If the Bison had pummeled the Draft as I certainly thought they were going to do Friday, I would give them at least a fighting chance to stay with the Eagles at least for the first half. But now my guess is that the Bison are questioning themselves, maybe a little shaky on confidence, and that East Rock will be able to put them away early. Rivenburg is still doing his thing, apparently on both sides of the ball, but it will not be enough. ERHS wins by at least four touchdowns.
Riverheads at Luray: Although the Gladiators were shut out by the above-mentioned Eagles a few weeks ago, it seems to have re-focused them, as they have now reeled off three impressive wins, all three of which probably exceeded expectations in terms of scoring and margin of victory, as they averaged almost 55 points over those three games. Luray on the other hand will now have to figure out what happened Friday and try to avoid a second straight loss. RHS and the Dogs have an odd relationship in that they seem to play their best against each other on the road. Also the running joke is that it usually rains when we go up there. Anyway, my expectation is that RHS will have too many weapons and will take charge early, thereby putting Luray in catch-up mode. The only question will be whether it will be a shootout (49-28) kind of game, or more of a grind it out 28-10 affair. Either way, I see the Red team leaving Luray with a solid win under their belts.
Stuarts Draft at Stonewall: First of all, as promised, my apologies to the Cougars for under-estimating them last Friday. I assumed they were so far down in the dumps that the Bison would stomp all over them. In fact, had it happened that way, I might have even been willing to give Stonewall at least a fighting chance in this one. But since they won, they may as well make it two in a row, but other than a possible rivalry win over Wilson, I don't see enough success down the stretch to seriously challenge for a playoff berth. My guess is that the mood in SD these days is let's make whatever noise we can this year with this very young team and build for the future. They will likely win at Stonewall by 30-35.
So that leaves Page at Wilson, the possible toss-up game of the week: It is Homecoming at the Hive, and coaches sometimes hate that because it takes the players' attention away from football. Wilson quite obviously can put the points on the board, but so can Page. This game is vital to both teams if they hope to make the playoffs and each mathematically still has a chance to have a winning season, with some winnable games still on the schedule. In fact I will bet the entire county is just WAITING for this year's Page/Luray game. I will officially go with Wilson by a touchdown Friday night but considering how hard the Panthers have played in their first two trips into Augusta County this year, I will not be surprised if they spoil the Hornet's Homecoming and laugh all the way back up to Shenandoah.
We will see just how much "home field" means this week.
As you recall, last week at this time, I thought I had it all figured out. But as you may have noticed a couple of teams pulled off surprises, so now who knows what to think? I should have simply stuck to the idea of the home teams all winning and had I done so, I would have gotten the Lee and Draft wins correct.
So now, those four "middle teams" that I mentioned (Gap, Lee, Page and Wilson) are all as tightly bound as they were before and now you can possibly even add Stuarts Draft as an outside playoff possibility in 2-B. East Rock and Luray seem to be shoo-ins, but I have a hard time picturing more than three others making it, so over these remaining four weeks of the regular season, a series of games matching these teams, including one this week, will sort it all out.
But for now, let's focus on this week's four district games. However, you can forget the home team's chances for the most part this week, as three of the four games "should" be won by the visitors and even the fourth one has the potential to come down to the wire.
The one thing that is 100% certain is that R E Lee will not win this week, for the simple reason that they have the week off. Time will tell whether they come out as re-energized as they did this time last year, and if they will be as mean again as they were to my poor little Gladiators last time around. (Those two will meet in Greenville on the 19th.)
But for now, let's hope that the rain they are talking about comes and goes by Thursday night, so that we can have decent football weather for Friday. Here is my take on this week's games:
East Rock at Buffalo Gap: If the Bison had pummeled the Draft as I certainly thought they were going to do Friday, I would give them at least a fighting chance to stay with the Eagles at least for the first half. But now my guess is that the Bison are questioning themselves, maybe a little shaky on confidence, and that East Rock will be able to put them away early. Rivenburg is still doing his thing, apparently on both sides of the ball, but it will not be enough. ERHS wins by at least four touchdowns.
Riverheads at Luray: Although the Gladiators were shut out by the above-mentioned Eagles a few weeks ago, it seems to have re-focused them, as they have now reeled off three impressive wins, all three of which probably exceeded expectations in terms of scoring and margin of victory, as they averaged almost 55 points over those three games. Luray on the other hand will now have to figure out what happened Friday and try to avoid a second straight loss. RHS and the Dogs have an odd relationship in that they seem to play their best against each other on the road. Also the running joke is that it usually rains when we go up there. Anyway, my expectation is that RHS will have too many weapons and will take charge early, thereby putting Luray in catch-up mode. The only question will be whether it will be a shootout (49-28) kind of game, or more of a grind it out 28-10 affair. Either way, I see the Red team leaving Luray with a solid win under their belts.
Stuarts Draft at Stonewall: First of all, as promised, my apologies to the Cougars for under-estimating them last Friday. I assumed they were so far down in the dumps that the Bison would stomp all over them. In fact, had it happened that way, I might have even been willing to give Stonewall at least a fighting chance in this one. But since they won, they may as well make it two in a row, but other than a possible rivalry win over Wilson, I don't see enough success down the stretch to seriously challenge for a playoff berth. My guess is that the mood in SD these days is let's make whatever noise we can this year with this very young team and build for the future. They will likely win at Stonewall by 30-35.
So that leaves Page at Wilson, the possible toss-up game of the week: It is Homecoming at the Hive, and coaches sometimes hate that because it takes the players' attention away from football. Wilson quite obviously can put the points on the board, but so can Page. This game is vital to both teams if they hope to make the playoffs and each mathematically still has a chance to have a winning season, with some winnable games still on the schedule. In fact I will bet the entire county is just WAITING for this year's Page/Luray game. I will officially go with Wilson by a touchdown Friday night but considering how hard the Panthers have played in their first two trips into Augusta County this year, I will not be surprised if they spoil the Hornet's Homecoming and laugh all the way back up to Shenandoah.
We will see just how much "home field" means this week.
